OH: Public Policy Polling: Obama with a huge lead over McCain

[Alcon]

CARL,

PPP is not an accurate polling firm based on what?

PPP didn't poll in the 2004 Presidential.  In the 2008 Primary, they stumbled toward the end (especially with Pennsylvania) but they still beat Strategic Vision, who was very good in 2004.  I don't think we should reject pollsters based on primary results.  I think PPP is untested and results like this make me skeptical, but it is too early to say that this is "not a very accurate polling firm."

[Josh/Devilman88]

CARL,

PPP is not an accurate polling firm based on what?

PPP didn't poll in the 2004 Presidential.  In the 2008 Primary, they stumbled toward the end (especially with Pennsylvania) but they still beat Strategic Vision, who was very good in 2004.  I don't think we should reject pollsters based on primary results.  I think PPP is untested and results like this make me skeptical, but it is too early to say that this is "not a very accurate polling firm."

That is what I was trying to say, but no one listens or care what I say.

[emailking]

It is a poll of likely voters. It is not a poll of registered voters.

In the primary the democrats had double the turnout of the Republicans in OH. Does that mean there are twice as many democrats as republicans in OH and therefore McCain is screwed? No. The two things have nothing to do with each other.

It's not a joke poll just because it shows a drop-off in black support or Republicans may be less likely to vote or you don't like the ultimate result. They're trying to capture a reality, not conform to pre-conceived notions of what you think the polling results should show.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

No way this is right; just like the poll in Minnesota that shows Obama +1 in MN.

[HardRCafé]

The internals of this poll are pretty messed up. Obama only leads by 1% among 18-29 year olds but leads by double digits in the next age bracket? Makes no sense.

Obama might lead by only 1% among youth in Idaho.  If you take out Sun Valley.

I agree with Scoonie.

[Josh/Devilman88]

The internals of this poll are pretty messed up. Obama only leads by 1% among 18-29 year olds but leads by double digits in the next age bracket? Makes no sense.

Obama might lead by only 1% among youth in Idaho.  If you take out Sun Valley.

I agree with Scoonie.

I think that is due to summer time and most younger people aren't home, they are off enjoying the summer else where.

[RJ]

Second, I do believe Obama will carry Ohio in November.

Third, expect the Margin of Victory there to be on the order of five per cent.

Oh no, Obama's doomed. CARLHAYDEN predicted victory for him.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

This poll is largely crap, but I don't think young people are so overwhelmingly for Obama that slight leads are unbelievable.  Young people are getting active in Obama's campaign, but activists aren't people.

There are a number of under-30's who, while a minority, are more inspired by John McCain's story of service to his country than Obama's record in the Illinois legislature.

[Franzl]

There are a number of under-30's who, while a minority, are more inspired by John McCain's story of service to his country than Obama's record in the Illinois legislature.

Forgive me. Is that the point of the election, to vote for a candidate who inspires you?

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

There are a number of under-30's who, while a minority, are more inspired by John McCain's story of service to his country than Obama's record in the Illinois legislature.

Forgive me. Is that the point of the election, to vote for a candidate who inspires you?

No no no, the point is to vote for the candidate with the best platitudes like "hope" and "change".

[Lief 🗽]

There are a number of under-30's who, while a minority, are more inspired by John McCain's story of service to his country than Obama's record in the Illinois legislature.

Forgive me. Is that the point of the election, to vote for a candidate who inspires you?

No no no, the point is to vote for the candidate with the best platitudes like "hope" and "change".

So, I take it you supported Gore and Kerry in 2000 and 2004 then? After all, they were the substantive, experienced candidates; Bush was inexperienced and full of vague platitudes, like compassionate conservatism.

[CARLHAYDEN]

CARL,

PPP is not an accurate polling firm based on what?

PPP didn't poll in the 2004 Presidential.  In the 2008 Primary, they stumbled toward the end (especially with Pennsylvania) but they still beat Strategic Vision, who was very good in 2004.  I don't think we should reject pollsters based on primary results.  I think PPP is untested and results like this make me skeptical, but it is too early to say that this is "not a very accurate polling firm."

First, the composition (demographics of the base were just plain wierd).

Second, when Tom was called on it, he defended it on the basis that its only slightly greater a spread (party id) that Survey USA!

Third, if you consider SUSA to be accurate, I suggest you review the posts of Vorlon and myself of their record.

Fourth, if you check state polls (outside of North Carolina, where PPC is competent), you will see they generally track well to the left of the field.  They had some really weird polls in California last year.

[Josh/Devilman88]

CARL,

PPP is not an accurate polling firm based on what?

PPP didn't poll in the 2004 Presidential.  In the 2008 Primary, they stumbled toward the end (especially with Pennsylvania) but they still beat Strategic Vision, who was very good in 2004.  I don't think we should reject pollsters based on primary results.  I think PPP is untested and results like this make me skeptical, but it is too early to say that this is "not a very accurate polling firm."

First, the composition (demographics of the base were just plain wierd).

Second, when Tom was called on it, he defended it on the basis that its only slightly greater a spread (party id) that Survey USA!

Third, if you consider SUSA to be accurate, I suggest you review the posts of Vorlon and myself of their record.

Fourth, if you check state polls (outside of North Carolina, where PPC is competent), you will see they generally track well to the left of the field.  They had some really weird polls in California last year.

They never polled California before.

[ottermax]

Doesn't Ohio have a higher than usual number of Black Republicans?

[Alcon]

CARL,

SUSA did excellently for this primary.  Similarly, Rasmussen blew 2000.  Good pollsters can have bad years, and good pollsters have bad polls in good years.  I think this is a bad poll.  PPP does not have enough of a record with General Election polling to give them "bad pollster"status quite yet.  As hilarious as their Pennsylvania primary poll was, we can see from SurveyUSA the dangers of projecting that to the General, as you yourself said. 

Can you provide a link to these California polls?  I think you're confusing PPP with PPI, but I may be wrong.  I don't remember any PPP polls before this year, and I don't know what they'd have been polling in California in 2007 -- initiatives?

[Reaganfan]

garbage sample size

[bgwah]

There are a number of under-30's who, while a minority, are more inspired by John McCain's story of service to his country than Obama's record in the Illinois legislature.

Forgive me. Is that the point of the election, to vote for a candidate who inspires you?

No no no, the point is to vote for the candidate with the best platitudes like "hope" and "change".

So, I take it you supported Gore and Kerry in 2000 and 2004 then? After all, they were the substantive, experienced candidates; Bush was inexperienced and full of vague platitudes, like compassionate conservatism.

Who needs facts or reality? Not Don!

[Alcon]

garbage sample size

Not at all...

This poll has some obvious apparent flaws, but that isn't one of them

[Ronnie]

Sure, this poll has some problems, but I do see Obama as the favorite in Ohio.  McCain better work hard to get this state back into his aisle.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Database link: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=3920080615108

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

So, I take it you supported Gore and Kerry in 2000 and 2004 then? After all, they were the substantive, experienced candidates; Bush was inexperienced and full of vague platitudes, like compassionate conservatism.

George W. Bush was twice elected Governor of Texas and had a comprehensive agenda.  Compassionate Conservatism is not a platitude like "hope", it is an ideology that I still very much subscribe to.