OK: Research 2000: Obama does better than Kerry, still gets crushed

[Eraserhead]

Obama won't get 38% in Oklahoma.

It's entirely possible that he could actually. That's not the surprising part here. The surprising part is that McCain is only at 52%. I expect by election day that he'll be over 60% but Obama getting 38% is hardly unreasonable.

[Eraserhead]

Obama won't get 38% in Oklahoma.

It's entirely possible that he could actually. That's not the surprising part here. The surprising part is that McCain is only at 52%. I expect by election day that'll he be over 60% but Obama getting 38% is hardly completely unreasonable.

Careful. I'm sure that AHDuke will try to pervert what you said into a quote about Obama being able to win Oklahoma.

Nice try at trying to pervert my statements, buddy. Obama can get 38% in Oklahoma if he wins by 6-8% nationally. I don't think he'll outperform Kerry if the margin is less than 6% on either side.

What is the basis for this idea?

A look at recent history might be helpful here...

Kerry in 2004: 34%
Gore in 2000: 38%
Clinton in 1996: 41%
Clinton in 1992: 34%
Dukakis in 1988: 41%