OK: Research 2000: Obama does better than Kerry, still gets crushed
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  OK: Research 2000: Obama does better than Kerry, still gets crushed
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Author Topic: OK: Research 2000: Obama does better than Kerry, still gets crushed  (Read 1659 times)
Lief 🗽
Lief
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« on: June 12, 2008, 07:12:53 PM »

McCain (R) 52
Obama (D) 38
Undecided 10

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/12/152922/022/138/534814

This was part of a DailyKos-paid-for poll for Andrew Rice in Oklahoma, and it included a poll on the Obama-McCain race.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #1 on: June 12, 2008, 07:59:46 PM »

Obama won't get 38% in Oklahoma.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2008, 08:02:04 PM »

agreed, Oklahoma looks horrible for him
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: June 12, 2008, 08:21:26 PM »
« Edited: June 12, 2008, 08:25:43 PM by Eraserhead »


It's entirely possible that he could actually. That's not the surprising part here. The surprising part is that McCain is only at 52%. I expect by election day that he'll be over 60% but Obama getting 38% is hardly unreasonable.
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #4 on: June 12, 2008, 08:23:46 PM »


It's entirely possible that he could actually. That's not the surprising part here. The surprising part is that McCain is only at 52%. I expect by election day that'll he be over 60% but Obama getting 38% is hardly completely unreasonable.

Careful. I'm sure that AHDuke will try to pervert what you said into a quote about Obama being able to win Oklahoma. Tongue
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #5 on: June 12, 2008, 08:26:41 PM »


It's entirely possible that he could actually. That's not the surprising part here. The surprising part is that McCain is only at 52%. I expect by election day that'll he be over 60% but Obama getting 38% is hardly completely unreasonable.

Careful. I'm sure that AHDuke will try to pervert what you said into a quote about Obama being able to win Oklahoma. Tongue

Nice try at trying to pervert my statements, buddy. Obama can get 38% in Oklahoma if he wins by 6-8% nationally. I don't think he'll outperform Kerry if the margin is less than 6% on either side.
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #6 on: June 12, 2008, 08:35:18 PM »


It's entirely possible that he could actually. That's not the surprising part here. The surprising part is that McCain is only at 52%. I expect by election day that'll he be over 60% but Obama getting 38% is hardly completely unreasonable.

Careful. I'm sure that AHDuke will try to pervert what you said into a quote about Obama being able to win Oklahoma. Tongue

Nice try at trying to pervert my statements, buddy. Obama can get 38% in Oklahoma if he wins by 6-8% nationally. I don't think he'll outperform Kerry if the margin is less than 6% on either side.

Not every state is going to swing universally from Kerry's margin based on Obama's performance.  Some states will swing by larger or smaller margins.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: June 12, 2008, 08:42:20 PM »
« Edited: June 12, 2008, 08:45:04 PM by Eraserhead »


It's entirely possible that he could actually. That's not the surprising part here. The surprising part is that McCain is only at 52%. I expect by election day that'll he be over 60% but Obama getting 38% is hardly completely unreasonable.

Careful. I'm sure that AHDuke will try to pervert what you said into a quote about Obama being able to win Oklahoma. Tongue

Nice try at trying to pervert my statements, buddy. Obama can get 38% in Oklahoma if he wins by 6-8% nationally. I don't think he'll outperform Kerry if the margin is less than 6% on either side.

What is the basis for this idea?

A look at recent history might be helpful here...

Kerry in 2004: 34%
Gore in 2000: 38%
Clinton in 1996: 41%
Clinton in 1992: 34%
Dukakis in 1988: 41%
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Meeker
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« Reply #8 on: June 12, 2008, 08:43:13 PM »

This is, uh, interesting...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: June 12, 2008, 11:32:48 PM »

Need more polls to get a trend. Remember that in 2004 there were also 2 polls that showed Kerry trailing by just 12%. Anyway, I could see Obama getting 35-38% in OK.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #10 on: June 13, 2008, 03:59:35 AM »


It's entirely possible that he could actually. That's not the surprising part here. The surprising part is that McCain is only at 52%. I expect by election day that'll he be over 60% but Obama getting 38% is hardly completely unreasonable.

Careful. I'm sure that AHDuke will try to pervert what you said into a quote about Obama being able to win Oklahoma. Tongue

Nice try at trying to pervert my statements, buddy. Obama can get 38% in Oklahoma if he wins by 6-8% nationally. I don't think he'll outperform Kerry if the margin is less than 6% on either side.

What is the basis for this idea?

A look at recent history might be helpful here...

Kerry in 2004: 34%
Gore in 2000: 38%
Clinton in 1996: 41%
Clinton in 1992: 34%
Dukakis in 1988: 41%

Just for fun, let's do a back-of-the-napkin calculation of Obama's expected share of the vote in OK given the historical vote totals:

Relative to the 2-candidate vote, the historical % Dem. vote becomes:

Year  - Dem. %
2004 - 34.43%
2000 - 38.92%
1996 - 45.60%
1992 - 44.37%
1988 - 41.61%

Relative to the national, 2-candidate margin (), this becomes:

Year  - Dem. %
2004 - NPV-14.33% (2.48%)
2000 - NPV-11.34% (0.53%)
1996 - NPV-9.13% (9.46%)
1992 - NPV-9.09% (6.91%)
1988 - NPV-12.29% (7.80%)

Assuming a 4% margin swing (i.e., 2% of voters swinging) due to a neighboring son effect, this becomes:

Year  - Dem. %
2004 - NPV-12.33%
2000 - NPV-9.34%
1996 - NPV-9.13% (AR roughly cancels KS)
1992 - NPV-9.09% (AR roughly cancels TX)
1988 - NPV-10.29%

which gives an average of NPV-10.04%

So a 52.5%-47.5% 2-candidate NPV win by a generic Democrat against McCain (i.e., a 51%-48% NPV win by Obama, assuming that he under-performs the generic Dem. by a 2% margin) would yield 52.5%-10.04% = 42.46%, which corresponds to 42.04% of the total vote (assuming 1% of the vote goes to 3rd Parties).  Assuming a net racially motivated faction amounting to ~13% of Democrats = ~6.5% of voters (as per the exit polls from the OK Dem. Primary, i.e., assuming no Bradley Effect on top of the openly admitted racially motivated voting) swinging away from Obama as compared to the generic Dem. leads to Obama getting 35.54% of the vote, which corresponds to  McCain getting 63.46% of the vote.  This is very close to my current model's projection (based on polls, and not historical data) of 63.01%-35.99% (having taken this poll into account).
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Gustaf
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« Reply #11 on: June 13, 2008, 06:13:21 AM »


It's entirely possible that he could actually. That's not the surprising part here. The surprising part is that McCain is only at 52%. I expect by election day that'll he be over 60% but Obama getting 38% is hardly completely unreasonable.

Careful. I'm sure that AHDuke will try to pervert what you said into a quote about Obama being able to win Oklahoma. Tongue

Nice try at trying to pervert my statements, buddy. Obama can get 38% in Oklahoma if he wins by 6-8% nationally. I don't think he'll outperform Kerry if the margin is less than 6% on either side.

Not every state is going to swing universally from Kerry's margin based on Obama's performance.  Some states will swing by larger or smaller margins.

And you expect Oklahoma to swing more positively for Obama than most states?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #12 on: June 13, 2008, 08:35:09 AM »

And you expect Oklahoma to swing more positively for Obama than most states?

Think of it as a correction of its heavy swing toward George W. Bush in 2004. It's not all about Obama; Bush was perfect for Oklahoma, McCain less so.
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agcatter
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« Reply #13 on: June 13, 2008, 08:53:19 AM »

Oklahoma will be about 65-35 like 2004.  Boren didn't say what he said for no reason at all.

Obama's percentages in IMHO

Oklahoma - 35%
Arkansas -  40%
kentucky -   38%
W Va       -   38%

McCain isn't a good candidate for these states.  That's the only reason Obama will get anything like the above percentages in these states.  Consider these states the antithesis of obama's performance in latte liberal states like Washington.  I know it's hard for you Obama koolaid drinkers to fathom, but not everyone thinks this guy is the messiah.  Yeah, I know.  Those states MUST be made up of racists.  How else can you explain their resistence to the enlightened one.
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Joe Biden 2020
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« Reply #14 on: June 13, 2008, 07:17:44 PM »

This is pretty close to my thoughts on Oklahoma save for McCain's low performance.  I'm shocked, in a good way, that he's barely polling a majority.  I would put him, and still do, at 57-59%.  I still think Obama can get 40% in Oklahoma, but that is his ceiling.  You're right, Bush was perfect for Oklahoma, but McCain is looked on with much less respect than President Bush.  Obama, on the other hand, is just like Kerry in Oklahoman's eyes, but he is a much more dynamic and eloquent speaker that he polls a little higher based on that fact coupled with the less-than-stellar John McCain.

What's not really shocking, however, is Inhofe trouncing Rice.  Note:  That's a change from my previous thought, until, much to my shigrin, I remembered that Rice got trounced by Inhofe in 2002.  Sad
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Robespierre's Jaw
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« Reply #15 on: June 14, 2008, 12:45:55 AM »

There is no chance that Barack Obama will get more than 38% of the vote in Oklahoma this Election. If Obama does manage to get more than 38%, there is something wrong with the Oklahoma electorate. It goes against the electoral grain of wood in Oklahoma, if a liberal African-American Senator running for President of the United States manages to get more than 38%.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #16 on: June 15, 2008, 12:37:43 PM »

There is no chance that Barack Obama will get more than 38% of the vote in Oklahoma this Election. If Obama does manage to get more than 38%, there is something wrong with the Oklahoma electorate. It goes against the electoral grain of wood in Oklahoma, if a liberal African-American Senator running for President of the United States manages to get more than 38%.

Or its just a great year for the Democrats as I think it will be.
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