NV: Mason-Dixon: McCain slightly ahead of Obama

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Nevada President by Mason-Dixon on 2008-06-22

Summary: D: 42%, R: 44%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Alcon]

Interesting to see our first instance of this question:

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The results:

More likely 19%
Less likely 28%
No effect 51%

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I figured Nevada would be very close.  Neither candidate is winning by more than 2%.

[Verily]

Interesting to see our first instance of this question:

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The results:

More likely 19%
Less likely 28%
No effect 51%

The Clinton supporters' caveat is that most of the "less likelys" are probably Republicans, but that doesn't do much for the notion that she's not problematically polarizing and unpopular.

Also, how was this poll conducted a week in the future?

[Ronnie]

Hm, this should be great news for McCain, especially since Obama's bounce is not completely over.

I give Nevada a very slight edge to McCain at this point.

[Tender Branson]

Also, how was this poll conducted a week in the future?

It wasn´t conducted on June 22, but it shows this date in the AR poll as well. In the database the correct date (June 11) is shown ... Maybe Dave should take a look at it.

[Adlai Stevenson]

My prediction:

NEVADA -
49% (D) Obama
47% (R) McCain
  2% Others

[Sbane]

The good news for Obama is that most of the undecided seem to be hillary favoring demographics. Especially if the hispanics and women come home to Obama he could win. NV will be a tough state for him though.

[Flying Dog]

Nevada, especially the Las Vegas metro area, is growing tremendously. Even just four years could change the area substantially. North Vegas is key to an Obama victory. Also, he looks like the candidate that won't get swamped by a Republican in places like Reno and Carson City like Kerry was.

[Aizen]

Nevada is starting to piss me off now. This is three polls in a row that show a McCain lead.

[Eraserhead]

McCain will probably win NV. Probably.

[TheresNoMoney]

Obama needs to campaign hard in Nevada.

[Angel of Death]

McCain will probably win NV. Probably.

They mostly come at night. Mostly.

[JohnCA246]

Well as long as the House stays Dem, I suppose Obama doesnt neeed NV.  Theres my rationalization lol.  DAMN IT.  THat was the first setback for awhile.

[classical liberal]

It seems odd that NV is polling at National Margin + 8% for McCain, given that it has been within 2% of the National Margin in the last 2 cycles.

[exopolitician]

Its only 2 points and its the middle of June. Everyone....chill.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It seems odd that NV is polling at National Margin + 8% for McCain, given that it has been within 2% of the National Margin in the last 2 cycles.

There's some regional affinity for McCain, I feel, which will help in the states of New Mexico and Nevada.  Might not be worth much, but he'll do better than Bush as compared to the national totals.