Which of these Southern states will Obama do the best in?

[Brittain33]

i have a very very weird feeling about mississippi

I feel weird to be so out of step in thinking Mississippi is a good bet for a high if not successful finish... it's in a league of its own for the size of its electorate that is African-American, yes the voters are polarized, but they are nearly as much so in South Carolina and Mississippi hasn't had a competitive race like this in ages. It was marginally closer than both South Carolina and Alabama in 1996, by which point Clinton's local advantage had evaporated.

A friend of a friend works for the Obama campaign and they plan to make campaign stops in Mississippi but not Kentucky.

[7,052,770]

The answer is Mississippi, I think, where I expect Obama to approach 45%, assuming a 51-48 national win.

Obama couldn't do any worse than Kerry. Breaking 20% is possible if he plays his cards right.

I think he could do worse than Kerry, to be honest. He, at least, had the advantage of being white, which I believe is quite important in Mississippi.

I doubt it.  Those 14% are either liberals, or at least yellow dog Democrats.  Kerry was the absolute worst possible candidate for Mississippi, being a rich Northern portrayed as an elitist snob.  Sure, many people won't vote for him because he's black, but I doubt Kerry got many at all of those votes.  Will he break 20% of the white vote?  Possibly.  It really depends on how he does nationally.  If McCain can't inspire the fundies to come out, and they all stay at home, then Obama has a chance at breaking 20% of the white vote.  If McCain completely collapses nationwide, the fundies completely stay away from him, and Obama remains seen in a very positive light, and wins by double digits nationally in the popular vote, he will have a chance to win the state.

[Stranger in a strange land]

If Barr does as well as Perot(unlikely but let me have my fun) Obama winning Louisiana isn't out of the question.

Barr will not do as well as Perot. At this point I doubt he'll even do as well as Nader did in 2000. If Barr pulls in around 5%, McCain absolutely craters, and Obama runs a perfect campaign, I could maybe, maybe, maybe see Obama winning Louisiana or Georgia. LA isn't as de-blacked as everyone thinks: most of those displaced by Katrina just went to other parts of the state, and at least some whites were displaced also. Georgia has a few white liberals and moderates in Atlanta and the surrounding areas, most of whom are transplants from other parts of the country. However, barring a perfect political storm, McCain will win both states by double digits.

[exopolitician]

I vote South Carolina.

[charltonNick]

I reckon Mississippi will be closer than most think, especially as I'm reckoning on Obama getting 25 to 30% of the white vote, coupled with a huge black turnout. White vote much higher for Democrats there now with people on southern part of state much less hostile to the idea of govt intervention after the essential hurricane Katrina clean-up campaign.
could be the best Democrat performance since Catrer...

[Brittain33]

I reckon Mississippi will be closer than most think, especially as I'm reckoning on Obama getting 25 to 30% of the white vote,

If Obama gets 30% of the white vote in MS, he wins the state by nearly 10 points, is my guess. At 25%, he barely wins the state. (This is figuring the black percentage of the vote goes from 34% in '04 to 37% in '08, and goes 95% Obama, up from 90% Kerry.)

That would be extraordinary.

Kerry got 14% among white voters in MS, as we all know by now; 19% in Alabama, 22% in South Carolina, 24% in Louisiana and Georgia, 29% in Oklahoma, 36% in Arkansas.

[Sbane]

I reckon Mississippi will be closer than most think, especially as I'm reckoning on Obama getting 25 to 30% of the white vote,

If Obama gets 30% of the white vote in MS, he wins the state by nearly 10 points, is my guess. At 25%, he barely wins the state. (This is figuring the black percentage of the vote goes from 34% in '04 to 37% in '08, and goes 95% Obama, up from 90% Kerry.)

That would be extraordinary.

Kerry got 14% among white voters in MS, as we all know by now; 19% in Alabama, 22% in South Carolina, 24% in Louisiana and Georgia, 29% in Oklahoma, 36% in Arkansas.

Obama will not get more than 20% of the white vote considering a white democrat only got 14%. If we assume that blacks make up 37% of  the electorate, Obama gets about 47% of the vote. I think Obama will be able to get at least 45% of the vote but any more than that is going to be hard.

[Nym90]

Louisiana.