will obama crack 90% in dc

[WalterMitty]

yes.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

yes.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Hell yes.

[Albus Dumbledore]

Why not?

[Torie]

I tend to doubt it. Among other things the black percentage in DC is dropping. From 2000 to 2006, it dropped from about 60% to 55%.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I tend to doubt it. Among other things the black percentage in DC is dropping. From 2000 to 2006, it dropped from about 60% to 55%.

yes, but DC whites are quite liberal also, and tend to be the types of whites with whom Obama does well.

[Nym90]

Almost certainly, considering that Kerry got 89 percent.

Of course, there aren't that many more votes that can go Democratic in DC, but increasing black turnout would in and of itself put him over the 90 percent mark.

[Torie]

I tend to doubt it. Among other things the black percentage in DC is dropping. From 2000 to 2006, it dropped from about 60% to 55%.

yes, but DC whites are quite liberal also, and tend to be the types of whites with whom Obama does well.

Ya, but assuming that Obama will get 80% of the white vote (actually it might need to be more like 85% or close to it, since I suspect the under 18 year old population is much more black), is a pretty high bar. Hey, Bob Novak votes in DC.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Prediction:
Obama 85%
McCain 9%
Nader 4%
Barr 2%

[defe07]

Not only will Obama get 90% in DC but I have a feeling that a third party can come in 2nd in D.C. with a little campaigning.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Prediction:
Obama 85%
McCain 9%
Nader 4%
Barr 2%

Ummm....

[© tweed]

Prediction:
Obama 85%
McCain 9%
Nader 4%
Barr 2%

why do you think Nader will increase his DC vote share almost sixfold over 2004?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Prediction:
Obama 85%
McCain 9%
Nader 4%
Barr 2%

why do you think Nader will increase his DC vote share almost sixfold over 2004?

Because I think about 5-10% of DC whites will not vote for a black man

[Smash255]

Prediction:
Obama 85%
McCain 9%
Nader 4%
Barr 2%

why do you think Nader will increase his DC vote share almost sixfold over 2004?

Because I think about 5-10% of DC whites will not vote for a black man

based off what exactly other than  your hope for more racism?  Who are you Naso??  D.C whites tend to be very liberal.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Prediction:
Obama 85%
McCain 9%
Nader 4%
Barr 2%

why do you think Nader will increase his DC vote share almost sixfold over 2004?

Because I think about 5-10% of DC whites will not vote for a black man

I doubt the racism bump is 10% anywhere, and certainly not in DC.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Prediction:
Obama 85%
McCain 9%
Nader 4%
Barr 2%

why do you think Nader will increase his DC vote share almost sixfold over 2004?

Because I think about 5-10% of DC whites will not vote for a black man

5-10% of DC whites < 4% of DC. Furthermore these no doubt disproportionally make up the few Republicans in DC, and the few that aren't are more likely to vote McCain/stay home than vote Nader. Also please note it's basically impossible to be a Democrat in DC and NOT vote for a black at some point.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Prediction:
Obama 85%
McCain 9%
Nader 4%
Barr 2%

why do you think Nader will increase his DC vote share almost sixfold over 2004?

Because I think about 5-10% of DC whites will not vote for a black man

based off what exactly other than  your hope for more racism?  Who are you Naso??  D.C whites tend to be very liberal.

Liberal? Yes, but there is where most closet racism lies.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

DC was less than 30% white at the last census. So even if you think that's gone up since then, we're still talking 3% tops. Furthermore almost all of that 3% would have to be in the few Republicans who live in DC as stated above, as it's basically impossible to be a Democrat in DC and never vote for a black.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Prediction:
Obama 85%
McCain 9%
Nader 4%
Barr 2%

why do you think Nader will increase his DC vote share almost sixfold over 2004?

Because I think about 5-10% of DC whites will not vote for a black man

I doubt the racism bump is 10% anywhere, and certainly not in DC.

But in DWDL's world, every one who votes for Obama is a reverse racist, so there is a huge racism bump.

[© tweed]

Prediction:
Obama 85%
McCain 9%
Nader 4%
Barr 2%

why do you think Nader will increase his DC vote share almost sixfold over 2004?

Because I think about 5-10% of DC whites will not vote for a black man

based off what exactly other than  your hope for more racism?  Who are you Naso??  D.C whites tend to be very liberal.

it's quite obvious that DWTL did not know that Nader fared so poorly last time out in DC before he made his "prediction" and is now trying to retroactively justify it.  don't pay it any mind - I just asked in order to see what he would say.

[bgwah]

Yes.

It's black population is declining, sure.

But they're being replaced by San Francisco/Seatte/Manhattan type whites, so it will remain extremely Democratic.

[J. J.]

Yes, barely.

[Torie]

Yes.

It's black population is declining, sure.

But they're being replaced by San Francisco/Seatte/Manhattan type whites, so it will remain extremely Democratic.

Is that an over or under 90% statement? 

[DownWithTheLeft]

Prediction:
Obama 85%
McCain 9%
Nader 4%
Barr 2%

why do you think Nader will increase his DC vote share almost sixfold over 2004?

Because I think about 5-10% of DC whites will not vote for a black man

based off what exactly other than  your hope for more racism?  Who are you Naso??  D.C whites tend to be very liberal.

it's quite obvious that DWTL did not know that Nader fared so poorly last time out in DC before he made his "prediction" and is now trying to retroactively justify it.  don't pay it any mind - I just asked in order to see what he would say.

I knew he did not perform well in DC, I did not know how poorly.  I thought it was more along the lines of 2%.

[Eraserhead]

Sure.