Pennsylvania Congressional Races

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jason Altmire hasn't really lived up to his "moderate Democrat" label.  Bob Novak highlights this in a recent article from Human Events
(http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=26694)

"But that surely is not the case with the only other selected Blue Dog with a perfect Democratic record on the eight issues: Rep. Jason Altimire (R-Pa.). He is a former Congressional aide and health industry lobbyist, and there does not seem to be anything conservative about him. He apparently joined the Blue Dogs because he represents a swing district where former Rep. Melissa Hart (R-Pa.), whom he defeated in 2006, is trying again in 2008."

I know its a typo, but its kind of amusing.

[bullmoose88]

Why did Mike Fitzpatrick not run a rematch?  I think he could have won

Very unlikely.  That district is increasingly Democratic and Murphy is very popular there. 

Popular? Yes.

Very Popular? Jury's still out on that one.

And despite his popularity he couldnt get his side a win in his district in April.

[Keystone Phil]

And despite his popularity he couldnt get his side a win in his district in April.

And apparently his base in lower Bucks was really unhappy about that move on his part.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't see why that would hurt Murphy anymore than it would hurt Nutter (who also backed the "wrong side" for his constituency.) I wish it would hurt that piece of trash though (Nutter, not Murphy.)

[minionofmidas]

I wisht people would stop talking about presidential coattails. I mean, pleeeze. When have those last existed in the US to any relevant extent? In the 1950s, that's when.

Coattails, of a somewhat different sort, made a reappearance in 2006, of course - Democratic Party coattails. Or rather, Congressional Republican negative coattails that in some areas reached down into local elections. Whoever said it wasn't lying or exaggerating about taking the GOP brand being taken off the shelf.
And yeah, it's definitely possible that party label coattails will pull Obama into the White House.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't see why that would hurt Murphy anymore than it would hurt Nutter (who also backed the "wrong side" for his constituency.) I wish it would hurt that piece of trash though (Nutter, not Murphy.)

Because the machine unites more easily. I wouldn't say it didn't hurt Nutter a little though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wisht people would stop talking about presidential coattails. I mean, pleeeze. When have those last existed in the US to any relevant extent? In the 1950s, that's when.

Coattails, of a somewhat different sort, made a reappearance in 2006, of course - Democratic Party coattails. Or rather, Congressional Republican negative coattails that in some areas reached down into local elections. Whoever said it wasn't lying or exaggerating about taking the GOP brand being taken off the shelf.
And yeah, it's definitely possible that party label coattails will pull Obama into the White House.

One could argue that the Democrats would've won the Florida Senate seat in 1988 if Dukakis didn't do so badly there. Though the overall point is valid.

I'd say Gubernatorial coattails played a big role in New Hampshire in 2006 though.

[Mr.Phips]

I wisht people would stop talking about presidential coattails. I mean, pleeeze. When have those last existed in the US to any relevant extent? In the 1950s, that's when.

Coattails, of a somewhat different sort, made a reappearance in 2006, of course - Democratic Party coattails. Or rather, Congressional Republican negative coattails that in some areas reached down into local elections. Whoever said it wasn't lying or exaggerating about taking the GOP brand being taken off the shelf.
And yeah, it's definitely possible that party label coattails will pull Obama into the White House.

One could argue that the Democrats would've won the Florida Senate seat in 1988 if Dukakis didn't do so badly there. Though the overall point is valid.

I'd say Gubernatorial coattails played a big role in New Hampshire in 2006 though.

Or you could argue that Tom Daschle would have been reelected in 2004 and Democrats would have beat Jim Bunning in Kentucky if John Kerry had not done so poorly in both states. 

[Brittain33]

One could argue that the Democrats would've won the Florida Senate seat in 1988 if Dukakis didn't do so badly there. Though the overall point is valid.

Would anyone dispute that Mel Martinez won in 2004 because of Bush's coattails? There's no way he'd have piled up the margins he did in the Panhandle without Bush turning out the conservative base and epitomizing the Republican brand. Martinez was and is a Bush proxy, to boot.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Bush definitely had coattails in the South in 2004 when Republicans picked-up seats in Florida, Louisiana, South Carolina and North Carolina.  It was arguably Obama's coattails (winning 70%-27% over Alan Keyes) that lifted Melissa Bean into the House over Phil Crane in Illinois.  As someone else cited, New Hampshire in 2006 saw definite coattails as Governor John Lynch's landside re-election meant Democrats gained the Legislature, statewide offices and both House seats.  I definitely think Obama will have coattails this year, and perhaps McCain will in places like TX-22, or he might well possibly keep AZ-1 for the GOP.