Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[MR maverick]

My bad sir.  I guess I misunderstood, I thought you meant by "not celebrating" that you meant about your own prediction!

Right now, the gap is 9 points.  I'll be very much surprised if the gap between the two candidates decreases.

4 - 5% the day before election?

[MR maverick]

Its not like obama was going to actaully win by 10pts.

50-48% is about what it could be on election night.

[MR maverick]

Gallup is saying no new voters?

I find that hard to believe considering if that was the case Hillary would campaigning for pres not Obama.

[MR maverick]

Bleh

Don't be so downcast, Ronnie, McCain has closed in on Obama's lead on the likely voter, traditional model. If you're feeling down take a look at Zogby

Dave

Yippee, it's probably statistical noise.

In any case, I would be very content if McCain would be able to lose by a couple points, just so people like Gordon Smith and Norm Coleman might have a chance.  I have written off McCain actually winning this thing, though.

Why?

[MR maverick]

Which Model is the right one to go by for this election?  It appears like gallup is trying to have it 3 ways , so either way they was right about the election.

Expanded mode takes into account new voters and higher turnout right?

[MR maverick]

Which one should be considered for this years election?

[MR maverick]

Which one should be considered for this years election?

If we knew that, Gallup wouldn't bother posting the different models. Nobody knows who will turnout this year.

Well we know that its not going to be lower then 2004.

Thats pretty much out of the question.

[MR maverick]

The window is closing on McCain another day Obama has moved up after being at 49%.

So much for  "tightening".

[MR maverick]

The race is not tightening. Any upset by McCain will be because of illegitimate reasons.

Try telling that to the MSM they seem to think its tied.

Then again they wouldn't want a blowout because saying its close gets ratings.

[MR maverick]

It's over.  I kind of regret voting for McCain now.

Why? Just because your candidate might not win doesn't mean you should just go along with the crowd and vote for Obama. Sheesh! That's the most pathetic thing you've said in a long time, Ronnie.

Torie has convinced me just a teency bit that McCain wouldn't be too credible.  I don't like his campaign message currently, since it has moved fully to desperation, with the robocalls and all.

I despise Obama, but now I don't think I will be too upset when he is declared president-elect.

I have a lot of respect for Torie, but I disagree with him that Obama is less risky than McCain. Neither one really knows the economy, but Obama has the potential to really create a mess if he allows the Democrats to raise taxes. Hell, we don't know if it's going to be for those of us who make $250k, $200k, $150k, or $120k. Everyone keeps giving us different answers. The fact that he gets a free pass on this issue is really pissing me off.

Part of me will be happy when he gets elect so the Democrats will finally get blamed for the mess they helped create when the economy goes into the crapper in 2009, but another part of me sees what long term damage Obama might do to the country. Bernie Frank said it himself, "There are a lot of rich people that we can tax a lot."

Seriously you guys take the tax issue way too far.

I don't think either on will really do anything with taxes atleast nothing extreme. McCain will look out for the rich like a good republican would, Obama less so.

Obama is not risky .. look at how he's ran the campaign compared to McCain being all over the road.

And ... PALIN = more risky then un protected sex with a hooker.

[MR maverick]

Friday, November 7, 2008
Favorable 66%(+5)
Unfavorable 29%(-4)

He hasn't even moved into the white yet.