Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

Gallup doesn't release till 1 PM EST. You are looking at yesterday's numbers.

I really expect Obama to up by one today or tomorrow.

[© tweed]

Gallup doesn't release till 1 PM EST. You are looking at yesterday's numbers.

I really expect Obama to up by one today or tomorrow.

nobody cares

[Brittain33]

Monday -  September 15, 2008:

McCain  - 47% (nc)
Obama  - 45% (nc)

[J. J.]

Not good news for Obama.  It should have closed.

[Aizen]

Not good news for McCain.  It should have widened.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Not good news for Obama.  It should have closed.

He's only down by 2 points.

It really doesn't matter.

It makes no sense to microanalyze day by day tracking poll trends and then deem such gains or losses as "bad news" for a candidate. Especially when the race is this close.

[Rowan]

Strong Lean McCain.

[Nym90]

It's within the MoE. Bush was up by 2 in the final Gallup poll preelection in 2000.

The debates will decide this thing; obsessing over every 1 or 2 point bounce for one guy or the other isn't going to do anyone's blood pressure any good, folks.

[J. J.]

Not good news for Obama.  It should have closed.

He's only down by 2 points.

It really doesn't matter.

It makes no sense to microanalyze day by day tracking poll trends and then deem such gains or losses as "bad news" for a candidate. Especially when the race is this close.

There should have been a weekend bounce for Obama.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

You are flirting dangerously close to violating that one.
 

[Aizen]

Not good news for Obama.  It should have closed.

He's only down by 2 points.

It really doesn't matter.

It makes no sense to microanalyze day by day tracking poll trends and then deem such gains or losses as "bad news" for a candidate. Especially when the race is this close.

There should have been a weekend bounce for Obama.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

You are flirting dangerously close to violating that one.
 

Don't you violate that rule in regards to Pennsylvania?

[Nym90]

Not good news for Obama.  It should have closed.

He's only down by 2 points.

It really doesn't matter.

It makes no sense to microanalyze day by day tracking poll trends and then deem such gains or losses as "bad news" for a candidate. Especially when the race is this close.

There should have been a weekend bounce for Obama.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

You are flirting dangerously close to violating that one.
 

Just pointing out that it's close enough that even if the election were held today Obama could well still win. I agree that McCain is slightly favored at this point.

[KeyKeeper]

My my how the race has changed over the last few weeks. I don't think any one predicted Sen. McCain would have a rock hard lead of +2% on Sen. Obama. But of course the debates will change the race again.

[J. J.]

Not good news for Obama.  It should have closed.

He's only down by 2 points.

It really doesn't matter.

It makes no sense to microanalyze day by day tracking poll trends and then deem such gains or losses as "bad news" for a candidate. Especially when the race is this close.

There should have been a weekend bounce for Obama.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

You are flirting dangerously close to violating that one.
 

Don't you violate that rule in regards to Pennsylvania?

No, I just said it's still a tossup.  I'm waiting.  I want the bounce to be settled and to see good polls.

[Ronnie]

The race is rock solid at McCain + 2.  I don't think anyone could deny that.

[Brittain33]

The race is rock solid at McCain + 2.  I don't think anyone could deny that.

I was confused by posts like this for a while, because I thought "rock solid" meant that this was his solid lead and it couldn't change. No one seems to think that, though; you're saying it's "rock solid" in the sense that all the polls are converging on this and it looks to be accurate. Is that correct?

[Lief 🗽]

Monday -  September 15, 2008:

McCain  - 47% (nc)
Obama  - 45% (nc)

McCain is in deep trouble now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not good news for Obama.  It should have closed.

He's only down by 2 points.

It really doesn't matter.

It makes no sense to microanalyze day by day tracking poll trends and then deem such gains or losses as "bad news" for a candidate. Especially when the race is this close.

There should have been a weekend bounce for Obama.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

You are flirting dangerously close to violating that one.
 

Don't you violate that rule in regards to Pennsylvania?

He did constantly during the primaries for Hillary too.

[Lief 🗽]

J.J.'s first rule is stupid.

[J. J.]

Not good news for Obama.  It should have closed.

He's only down by 2 points.

It really doesn't matter.

It makes no sense to microanalyze day by day tracking poll trends and then deem such gains or losses as "bad news" for a candidate. Especially when the race is this close.

There should have been a weekend bounce for Obama.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

You are flirting dangerously close to violating that one.
 

Don't you violate that rule in regards to Pennsylvania?

He did constantly during the primaries for Hillary too.

Ah, what part of "I'm waiting for Rasmussen" don't you understand?

[J. J.]

J.J.'s first rule is stupid.

You confuse the words "stupid" with "accurate."

[© tweed]

J.J.'s first rule is stupid.

he has a God-complex.  it can be fun to watch him spew his garbage if you take the right attitude about it.

[Brittain33]

J.J.'s first rule is stupid.

he has a God-complex.  it can be fun to watch him spew his garbage if you take the right attitude about it.

Even that gets tedious after a while, though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

J.J.'s first rule is stupid.

he has a God-complex.  it can be fun to watch him spew his garbage if you take the right attitude about it.

Meh. He has a manner that eliminates all amusement value from it, unlike AuH2O for example for those who remember him.

[??????????]

Goldie was awesome. He needs to come back, immediately.

[© tweed]

Goldie was awesome. He needs to come back, immediately.

he wasn't very good at what he did