Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Eraserhead]

in the form of hawk...

Wednesday 25 June, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+2)

Based on the language in the release, I suspect that it's just a strong McCain sample.  Time will tell...

North Dakota is definitley in play. I think these numbers strengthen his lead in one time swing states like North Carolina, Indiana and Georgia, as well.

Phil, nobody believes this race is actually tied, just as nobody believes Obama is leading by double digits. There's no need to pretend that the Gallup Tracking Poll is the only poll that exists or that it's the only one worth anything. It just makes you and your followers (like AHDuke99) look desperate.

Nobody believes that this race is tied? Oh, ok. We'll just agree that Obama is up nine points, right (since we can't have it as a double digit lead)? The only polls that are worth anything are the ones that show Obama up in Dem states and closing in on the lead in GOP states. That's your way of thinking and its popular here. It'll always be popular here. I suggest that you not waste your time ganging up on all five McCain supporters here just because we have some good news.

I love how every Obama supporter can boast about their "lead" everywhere else but we McCain supporters can't do the same.

I have never said Obama was up nine points but thanks for putting words in my mouth.

Care to prove the part I highlighted? I posted just recently about how the poll in MO showing Obama down 7 points probably wasn't that far off, I've never bought into the hype of states like ND being competetive and I've written off the LA Times and Newsweek polls as complete trash (several times).

Let me ask you this Phil... given all of the state and national polling we have seen over the past few weeks, do you really think the race is dead even right now?

Being excited about a poll is one thing but your version of "excitement" seems to involve constantly mocking Obama supporters, lumping them all into one category and acting like a child. It's sad to see since you are a worthwhile posters in many ways.

At least get some better material if you're going to carry on in this way!

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Holds Slim Advantage Over McCain Among Catholics [26 June, 2008]

Hispanic Catholics tip group in Obama's favor

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108382/Obama-Holds-Slim-Advantage-Over-McCain-Among-Catholics.aspx

Presidential Vote Preference, by Religious Affiliation

Protestant: McCain 48%; Obama 41%

-White: McCain 56%; Obama 32%
-Non-White: McCain 15%; Obama 77%

Catholic: McCain 43%; Obama 47%

-Non-Hispanic: McCain 46%; Obama 43%
- Hispanic: McCain 25%; Obama 66%

Mormon: McCain 70%; Obama 23%

Jewish: McCain 29%; Obama 62%

No religion: McCain 25%; Obama 65%

June 5-23, Gallup Daily tracking

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, 26 June, 2008

Obama - 44% (-1)
McCain - 44% (-1)

[exopolitician]

Thursday, 26 June, 2008

Obama - 44% (-1)
McCain - 44% (-1)

OH the suspense

*dramatic music*

[J. J.]

If there was a bad sampling one day, how soon will it work its way out of the average?

[Eraserhead]

Obama Holds Slim Advantage Over McCain Among Catholics [26 June, 2008]

Hispanic Catholics tip group in Obama's favor

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108382/Obama-Holds-Slim-Advantage-Over-McCain-Among-Catholics.aspx

Presidential Vote Preference, by Religious Affiliation

Protestant: McCain 48%; Obama 41%

-White: McCain 56%; Obama 32%
-Non-White: McCain 15%; Obama 77%

Catholic: McCain 43%; Obama 47%

-Non-Hispanic: McCain 46%; Obama 43%
- Hispanic: McCain 25%; Obama 66%

Mormon: McCain 70%; Obama 23%

Jewish: McCain 29%; Obama 62%

No religion: McCain 25%; Obama 65%

June 5-23, Gallup Daily tracking

Dave

I guess BRTD can certainly go back to getting lap dances from hispanic women now. It also looks like Obama's Jewish "problem" has been extremely overblown by the media (going by this and several other polls).

[J. J.]

I guess BRTD can certainly go back to getting lap dances from hispanic women now. It also looks like Obama's Jewish "problem" has been extremely overblown by the media (going by this and several other polls).

McCain is running 3 points higher than Bush got in 2004 with Jewish voters. 

http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/jewvote.html

Again the problem is not carrying the group, but cutting into the base.

[© tweed]

three points is a completely meaningless distinction to make when MoEs are considered.

oh, and apparently the Hispanics aren't dead set on hating a negro.  they may well give him 70%...

[Flying Dog]

Obama will likely be on par with Kerry's preformance among Jews. I'd even wager he might do a point or two better if the national average is big enough.

[J. J.]

Obama will likely be on par with Kerry's preformance among Jews. I'd even wager he might do a point or two better if the national average is big enough.

I expect not on par, a bit worse.

Also, Bush's "Jewish numbers" went up from 19 to 24 from 2002 to 2004.  They are fluid, long term, but recently they seem be growing for the GOP.

[ottermax]

Obama will likely be on par with Kerry's preformance among Jews. I'd even wager he might do a point or two better if the national average is big enough.

I expect not on par, a bit worse.

Also, Bush's "Jewish numbers" went up from 19 to 24 from 2002 to 2004.  They are fluid, long term, but recently they seem be growing for the GOP.

Ew. If Jews start voting for the GOP I might just want to move to Canada... It's a long way from Jews voting for Republicans. They really hate Bush, but so many old Jewish women are upset with Obama defeating Hillary and so many Jews distrust him. I'm so frustrated with my religion.

[Ronnie]

Obama will likely be on par with Kerry's preformance among Jews. I'd even wager he might do a point or two better if the national average is big enough.

I expect not on par, a bit worse.

Also, Bush's "Jewish numbers" went up from 19 to 24 from 2002 to 2004.  They are fluid, long term, but recently they seem be growing for the GOP.

Ew. If Jews start voting for the GOP I might just want to move to Canada... It's a long way from Jews voting for Republicans. They really hate Bush, but so many old Jewish women are upset with Obama defeating Hillary and so many Jews distrust him. I'm so frustrated with my religion.

Exactly.  My aunt and my grandma, who are quite liberal, say that they distrust Obama and will vote for McCain.

I am a Republican Jew from California, which kind of puts me in the minority, don't you think?

[Flying Dog]

Obama will likely be on par with Kerry's preformance among Jews. I'd even wager he might do a point or two better if the national average is big enough.

I expect not on par, a bit worse.

Also, Bush's "Jewish numbers" went up from 19 to 24 from 2002 to 2004.  They are fluid, long term, but recently they seem be growing for the GOP.

Ew. If Jews start voting for the GOP I might just want to move to Canada... It's a long way from Jews voting for Republicans. They really hate Bush, but so many old Jewish women are upset with Obama defeating Hillary and so many Jews distrust him. I'm so frustrated with my religion.

Exactly.  My aunt and my grandma, who are quite liberal, say that they distrust Obama and will vote for McCain.

I am a Republican Jew from California, which kind of puts me in the minority, don't you think?

There's that factual anecdotal evidence again....

[ottermax]

Obama will likely be on par with Kerry's preformance among Jews. I'd even wager he might do a point or two better if the national average is big enough.

I expect not on par, a bit worse.

Also, Bush's "Jewish numbers" went up from 19 to 24 from 2002 to 2004.  They are fluid, long term, but recently they seem be growing for the GOP.

Ew. If Jews start voting for the GOP I might just want to move to Canada... It's a long way from Jews voting for Republicans. They really hate Bush, but so many old Jewish women are upset with Obama defeating Hillary and so many Jews distrust him. I'm so frustrated with my religion.

Exactly.  My aunt and my grandma, who are quite liberal, say that they distrust Obama and will vote for McCain.

I am a Republican Jew from California, which kind of puts me in the minority, don't you think?

Are you a Conservative? I know that among my Reform community Obama has incredible support (and I live in Washington which already loves Obama), but I think he doesn't do as well among Orthodox or Conservatives.

You definitely are in the minority... I've actually never met a Republican Jew in person.

[Sam Spade]

If there was a bad sampling one day, how soon will it work its way out of the average?

Tomorrow.

[elcorazon]

Obama will likely be on par with Kerry's preformance among Jews. I'd even wager he might do a point or two better if the national average is big enough.

I expect not on par, a bit worse.

Also, Bush's "Jewish numbers" went up from 19 to 24 from 2002 to 2004.  They are fluid, long term, but recently they seem be growing for the GOP.

Ew. If Jews start voting for the GOP I might just want to move to Canada... It's a long way from Jews voting for Republicans. They really hate Bush, but so many old Jewish women are upset with Obama defeating Hillary and so many Jews distrust him. I'm so frustrated with my religion.

Exactly.  My aunt and my grandma, who are quite liberal, say that they distrust Obama and will vote for McCain.

I am a Republican Jew from California, which kind of puts me in the minority, don't you think?

Are you a Conservative? I know that among my Reform community Obama has incredible support (and I live in Washington which already loves Obama), but I think he doesn't do as well among Orthodox or Conservatives.

You definitely are in the minority... I've actually never met a Republican Jew in person.

I know tons of Republican Jews.  My brother in law is one (he's in Texas though).  Know many in Kentucky, and even a bunch in the chicagoland area.  They're everywhere.  Orthodox Jews are often conservative, by the way.  It's the assimilated and Reform Jews who tend to be liberal.

[J. J.]

Obama will likely be on par with Kerry's preformance among Jews. I'd even wager he might do a point or two better if the national average is big enough.

I expect not on par, a bit worse.

Also, Bush's "Jewish numbers" went up from 19 to 24 from 2002 to 2004.  They are fluid, long term, but recently they seem be growing for the GOP.

Ew. If Jews start voting for the GOP I might just want to move to Canada... It's a long way from Jews voting for Republicans. They really hate Bush, but so many old Jewish women are upset with Obama defeating Hillary and so many Jews distrust him. I'm so frustrated with my religion.

Even during the Reagan years most Jewish voters voted Democrat.  In the 1990's the percentage increased, but the percentage of Jews voting Republican increased in 200 and fairly dramatically, in 2004.  McCain's numbers are higher still.

Most Jews will vote Democrat, but it looks like a larger minority will be voting Republican in 2008, if the polling is correct.

[Torie]

Still 44-44 on June 27 for the third straight day.

[J. J.]

If there was a bad sampling one day, how soon will it work its way out of the average?

Tomorrow.

Thank you.  Three day sample, I take it?

[Torie]

If there was a bad sampling one day, how soon will it work its way out of the average?

Tomorrow.

Thank you.  Three day sample, I take it?

I don't know.

Edit:  I looked it up, and it says it's a rolling three day average, so yes, and for the moment not much is rolling.

[Democratic Hawk]

Americans Prioritize the Economy Over Terrorism [27 June, 2008]

Majority viewpoint persists across all imcomes and among independents

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108415/Americans-Prioritize-Economy-Over-Terrorism.aspx

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Beats McCain on Most Character Ratings [27 June, 2008]

Obama leads on 7 of 10 characteristics, but McCain wins on leadership

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108418/Obama-Beats-McCain-Most-Character-Ratings.aspx

A. Cares about the needs of people like you: Obama 52%; McCain 30%

B. Is a strong and decisive leader: Obama 40%; McCain 46%

C. Shares your values: Obama 47%; McCain 39%

D. Understands the problems Americans face in their daily lives: Obama 54%; McCain 29%

E. Can manage the government effectively: Obama 42%; McCain 42%

F. Is independent in his thoughts and actions: Obama 52%; McCain 36%

G. Is honest and trustworthy: Obama 39%; McCain 35% (14% cite both equally)

H. Has a clear plan for solving the country's problems: Obama 41%; McCain 31% (19% cite neither)

I. Would work well with both parties to get things done in Washington: Obama 48%; McCain 35%

J. Would stand up to the special interests, including those aligned with his party: Obama 48%; McCain 34%

C, D, E, F: Asked of Form A half-sample

G, H, I,  J: Asked of Form B half-sample

USA Today/Gallup, June 15-19, 2008

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Gallup Editors' Election Poll Analysis [27 June, 2008]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108430/Gallup-Editors-Election-Poll-Analysis.aspx

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Er... wow.

lol I can't believe that. Fake poll ("air connu").

Of course, "moral values" need not pertain exclusively to such issues as abortion and same-sex marriage, they could, also, apply to, for example, corporate malfeasance. Besides a series of Republican scandals may well have dented the party's traditional advantage

Dave

[Flying Dog]

Obama Beats McCain on Most Character Ratings [27 June, 2008]

Obama leads on 7 of 10 characteristics, but McCain wins on leadership

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108418/Obama-Beats-McCain-Most-Character-Ratings.aspx

A. Cares about the needs of people like you: Obama 52%; McCain 30%

B. Is a strong and decisive leader: Obama 40%; McCain 46%

C. Shares your values: Obama 47%; McCain 39%

D. Understands the problems Americans face in their daily lives: Obama 54%; McCain 29%

E. Can manage the government effectively: Obama 42%; McCain 42%

F. Is independent in his thoughts and actions: Obama 52%; McCain 36%

G. Is honest and trustworthy: Obama 39%; McCain 35% (14% cite both equally)

H. Has a clear plan for solving the country's problems: Obama 41%; McCain 31% (19% cite neither)

I. Would work well with both parties to get things done in Washington: Obama 48%; McCain 35%

J. Would stand up to the special interests, including those aligned with his party: Obama 48%; McCain 34%

C, D, E, F: Asked of Form A half-sample

G, H, I,  J: Asked of Form B half-sample

USA Today/Gallup, June 15-19, 2008

Dave

These one's kind of surprise me.

I thought everybody thought Obama was an elitist. How can an elitist share common American values?

Also, so much for McCain's maverick image.