Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Rococo4]

not a textbook year for polling i would say

[BlueSwan]

I've been disappointed with Gallup this election season. Way to much movement in the polls to be believable. I think Rasmussen is the one to go with this year - they've had the race pretty stable at 4-8 points for Obama for about a month now and that seems about right.

[Sam Spade]

I've been disappointed with Gallup this election season. Way to much movement in the polls to be believable. I think Rasmussen is the one to go with this year - they've had the race pretty stable at 4-8 points for Obama for about a month now and that seems about right.

Gallup's movement is part of its methodology.  You have to live with it...

[Eraserhead]

lame

To beat out Hawk, this is an article from Gallup that I find most fascinating.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111331/No-Increase-Proportion-First-Time-Voters.aspx

(conducted October 17-19 2008 among 2700 RV)

J. J.'s Second Rule of Elections?

Nobody cares dude

[J. J.]

lame

To beat out Hawk, this is an article from Gallup that I find most fascinating.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111331/No-Increase-Proportion-First-Time-Voters.aspx

(conducted October 17-19 2008 among 2700 RV)

J. J.'s Second Rule of Elections?

Nobody cares dude

If they are correct, that might be very important, dud.

[MR maverick]

Gallup is saying no new voters?

I find that hard to believe considering if that was the case Hillary would campaigning for pres not Obama.

[J. J.]

Gallup is saying no new voters?

I find that hard to believe considering if that was the case Hillary would campaigning for pres not Obama.

They are saying the rate of new voters isn't substantially higher.

[Rowan]

Gallup is saying no new voters?

I find that hard to believe considering if that was the case Hillary would campaigning for pres not Obama.

They are saying the rate of new voters isn't substantially higher.

The basic difference is that new voters this year are probably Obama +20 when Bush and Kerry were essentially even among them.

[J. J.]

Gallup is saying no new voters?

I find that hard to believe considering if that was the case Hillary would campaigning for pres not Obama.

They are saying the rate of new voters isn't substantially higher.

The basic difference is that new voters this year are probably Obama +20 when Bush and Kerry were essentially even among them.

I would suspect that it wasn't even and probably more strongly Kerry.  In this case it's not a large group of voters that are really going to turn out and swing the election, if the article is correct.

[Rowan]

Gallup is saying no new voters?

I find that hard to believe considering if that was the case Hillary would campaigning for pres not Obama.

They are saying the rate of new voters isn't substantially higher.

The basic difference is that new voters this year are probably Obama +20 when Bush and Kerry were essentially even among them.

I would suspect that it wasn't even and probably more strongly Kerry.  In this case it's not a large group of voters that are really going to turn out and swing the election, if the article is correct.

Exits had it as Kerry +9.

[Rowan]

Gallup
RV’s
Obama 50%
McCain 42%(-1)

LV’s Expanded
Obama 51%(nc)
McCain 44%(-1)

LV’s Trad
Obama 50%(nc)
McCain 45%(-1)

[Wiz in Wis]

Gallup
RV’s
Obama 50%
McCain 42%(-1)

LV’s Expanded
Obama 51%(nc)
McCain 44%(-1)

LV’s Trad
Obama 50%(nc)
McCain 45%(-1)

Ye Olde Stable Pattern Returneth!

[Eraserhead]

Gallup
RV’s
Obama 50%
McCain 42%(-1)

LV’s Expanded
Obama 51%(nc)
McCain 44%(-1)

LV’s Trad
Obama 50%(nc)
McCain 45%(-1)

Ye Olde Stable Pattern Returneth!

Yeah, it seems like we are just seeing a bunch of meaningless bouncing around these days. Unless some megaevent occurs, the race is (probably) over.

[Tender Branson]

Saturday - October 25:

RV:

Obama 51% (+1)
McCain 42% (nc)

LV (Expanded):

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 43% (-1)

LV (Traditional):

Obama 51% (+1)
McCain 44% (-1)

[Josh/Devilman88]

Them numbers are just great!

[© tweed]

it appears as if the LV models are starting to catch up with one another.

[Rowan]

Weekend bounce cometh.

[Wall St. Wiz]

It just gets worse and worse, this is brutal.  I am going to get myself hammered on election night so I won't feel the pain that will be unfolding in front of my eyes.

[J. J.]

Weekend bounce cometh.

Not yet, those numbers are midweek and have generally trended to McCain, if they've trended to any candidate at all.

There numbers aver very good from Obama.

[Rowan]

Weekend bounce cometh.

Not yet, those numbers are midweek and have generally trended to McCain, if they've trended to any candidate at all.

There numbers aver very good from Obama.

Friday night has always been a good night for Obama polling. Friday, Saturday, Sunday polling are weekend polling days.

[J. J.]

Weekend bounce cometh.

Not yet, those numbers are midweek and have generally trended to McCain, if they've trended to any candidate at all.

There numbers aver very good from Obama.

Friday night has always been a good night for Obama polling. Friday, Saturday, Sunday polling are weekend polling days.

Saturday and Sunday, yes, but Fridays are neutral to lean McCain.

[TheGlobalizer]

It just gets worse and worse, this is brutal.  I am going to get myself hammered on election night so I won't feel the pain that will be unfolding in front of my eyes.

Can you keep that up for 4 years?

[J. J.]

It just gets worse and worse, this is brutal.  I am going to get myself hammered on election night so I won't feel the pain that will be unfolding in front of my eyes.

Can you keep that up for 4 years?

Try two.  Folks, what happens in 2010?

[Wall St. Wiz]

It just gets worse and worse, this is brutal.  I am going to get myself hammered on election night so I won't feel the pain that will be unfolding in front of my eyes.

Can you keep that up for 4 years?

I won't have to.  The Republican party always does better as the minority party unfortunately.  In a way I am looking forward to the Democrats being in control of everything.  It's all their in their court now, they will get the blame or credit for everything.  The pressure is on them.  No more Bush to kick around.  I basically feel like there is no where to go from this point but up.  The expectations for Obama are huge, there is no way he can live up to them.

We'll have to rebuild the way we did after 1992, and the way the Dems did after 2004.  We are going to have to "find our voice again".  I have faith that the American people are not going to like this experiment with socialism that is coming. 

[Speed of Sound]

It just gets worse and worse, this is brutal.  I am going to get myself hammered on election night so I won't feel the pain that will be unfolding in front of my eyes.

Can you keep that up for 4 years?

Try two.  Folks, what happens in 2010?

The deluge?