Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minneapolis: yes

If St. Paul also qualifies as a center city, BRTD calculated a while back that the Twin Cities suburbs voted for Bush, or perhaps do you think that area would swing towards Obama?

Yes, Bush won the Twin Cities metro area minus Minneapolis and St. Paul. Though it was close enough to swing if Obama has a major swing in Minnesota.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sorry if I missed it, but I scanned quickly. Also, in WI which will be a swing state, Obama wins big in Milwaukee & Madison

Obama is NOT winning the Milwaukee suburbs. No chance.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Philly 'burbs are questionable.

LOL. This guy's track record is just awesome.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Philly 'burbs are questionable.

LOL. This guy's track record is just awesome.

As much as I appreciate the Pavement binge, stop being a creeper.

I didn't bump this thread. It was bumped and I just noticed it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh come on, J.J.'s comment was in JUNE, a lot of places were still up in the air, especially suburbs.  I hate this stupid after-the-fact crap, it's so childish.

Take a look at whose making an issue out of it and then ask yourself if you're really surprised. And it's always easily justified! "I was right all along. They never were in play." They love that Monday morning quarterbacking...until they make a bad call.

There was never any reason to believe Obama would lose suburban Philly based on polling (even if McCain was slightly ahead that would still equal a victory for Obama) or the double digit swings in them that would be necessary to win them (Except for Bucks). Even you weren't predicting that when you predicted a McCain victory in the state. Of course J. J.'s logic was probably completely on the whole idea that everyone who voted for Hillary in the primary would vote for McCain, remember how he talked about Obama had a huge problem in MontCo? Even you admitted that was ridiculous and that Obama would win MontCo in a walk.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh come on, J.J.'s comment was in JUNE, a lot of places were still up in the air, especially suburbs.  I hate this stupid after-the-fact crap, it's so childish.

Take a look at whose making an issue out of it and then ask yourself if you're really surprised. And it's always easily justified! "I was right all along. They never were in play." They love that Monday morning quarterbacking...until they make a bad call.

There was never any reason to believe Obama would lose suburban Philly based on polling (even if McCain was slightly ahead that would still equal a victory for Obama) or the double digit swings in them that would be necessary to win them (Except for Bucks). Even you weren't predicting that when you predicted a McCain victory in the state. Of course J. J.'s logic was probably completely on the whole idea that everyone who voted for Hillary in the primary would vote for McCain, remember how he talked about Obama had a huge problem in MontCo? Even you admitted that was ridiculous and that Obama would win MontCo in a walk.

Early on, many people expected those counties to be fairly close. Plenty of analysts spoke about the Philly suburbs as a swing area. Stop being disingenuous.

And analysts are full of crap. See Dick Morris. I remember even you saying McCain had no chance in MontCo.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't know why Phil is so sensitive here, it's not like he's the one who blew the prediction. I remember him even admitting McCain wouldn't win the Philly suburbs and arguing against it. It also should be obvious that McCain wasn't going to get the double digit win in Pennsylvania (and likely nationwide) at any point to do so.

Also, based on other posts J. J. has made, its obvious his argument is based solely on the primary, which is pretty asinine (even Phil has admitted it was really dumb to say Obama was in trouble in MontCo, and go compare Lackawanna primary vs. general for an example of how overrated that is.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why did even you argue McCain wouldn't win the Philly suburbs then?

I also note you ignored the point about the primary.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK fine so you basically agree with me that J. J. is a horrible analyst. You've also admitted this in the past. So why keep up the constant defense of him?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

NO ONE cares about your stupid vendettas with EVERY poster about completely reasonable wrong predictions from ridiculous periods of time before the event.  This one is nothing compared with the countless idiotic dwellings on singular comments from months or years ago.

Is the quote my sig a "completely reasonable" prediction?

OK fine so you basically agree with me that J. J. is a horrible analyst. You've also admitted this in the past. So why keep up the constant defense of him?

I honestly believe that you have some sort of mental disorder in which you constantly need to hear that you're "right" and that others agree with you. You go as far as to blantantly lie about what people say in order to make it seem like we're in agreement.

No, I didn't say that J.J. is a horrible analyst. I said he was wrong about some things. Stop lying and saying that I've admitted something that I've never admitted.

I defend him because you're a major league douchebag and you feel the need to harp on being "right."

You're a sad, sad person, Zach. Very sad.

"Some" things? Try almost everything.

And if he wasn't an arrogant asshole to everyone who called him on his crap it wouldn't be like this. DWTL has made plenty of comparable idiotic predictions but you don't see him constantly hassled over it. Nor is it just me constantly picking on J. J.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

NO ONE cares about your stupid vendettas with EVERY poster about completely reasonable wrong predictions from ridiculous periods of time before the event.  This one is nothing compared with the countless idiotic dwellings on singular comments from months or years ago.

Is the quote my sig a "completely reasonable" prediction?

Yes, in MAY.

Obama doing worse than basically every single candidate ever in modern history (including McGovern, Goldwater, Landon, Hoover, Cox, etc.) is a reasonable prediction at any point?

Alcon did the math, that would equal McCain getting over 70%. That was NOT reasonable in May or any month.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

NO ONE cares about your stupid vendettas with EVERY poster about completely reasonable wrong predictions from ridiculous periods of time before the event.  This one is nothing compared with the countless idiotic dwellings on singular comments from months or years ago.

Is the quote my sig a "completely reasonable" prediction?

Yes, in MAY.

Obama doing worse than basically every single candidate ever in modern history (including McGovern, Goldwater, Landon, Hoover, Cox, etc.) is a reasonable prediction at any point?

Alcon did the math, that would equal McCain getting over 70%. That was NOT reasonable in May or any month.

Well?

And as Phil has even stated in this thread, I'm not the only one ripping on J. J. I count at least three others.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama won the Austin metro area pretty comfortably, which is 37th, if I remember correctly. Not really surprising though, since Bush barely won it.

He sure as hell didn't win it minus Austin though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Buffalo's MSA has only two counties, both of which voted for Obama, and as Kerry won Erie county outside of Buffalo, Obama had to as well. I doubt Rochester or Columbus did though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The funny thing is, based on the stuff he was saying at the time he probably had basically only the primary results in mind when he made that statement. He frequently said Obama was in big trouble in Montco.