Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

People still appear to be pissed off at Obama though, despite McCains ad f****try. Maybe people just have sand in their vagina.... sorry for the vulgarity, I just got up.

Don't be sorry, Americans always have sand in their vagina about something. 

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, August 7, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (-1, nc)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

If the race for the White House remains this close, the final decision may be rest in the hands of voters who are not yet paying attention to the campaign. Each night, Rasmussen Reports asks survey participants to let us know how closely they are following the election using a 9-point scale. People answering “9” say they are following the race “on a daily basis.”

Forty-two percent (42%) of McCain supporters say they’re following the race that closely along with 39% of Obama supporters and 35% of those who will vote for a third-party candidate. However, among the undecided voters, just 19% say they’re paying that much attention. On that nine-point scale, most undecided voters say their interest in the campaign is a “6” or less.

The average response for both a McCain or an Obama supporter is 7.4. For those supporting a third party candidate, the average level of interest is a 6.6. For the undecided voters, that figure is even lower--6.2.

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable; - 41% unfavorable (nc, nc)
Obama: 54% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, August 8, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

McCain: 54% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (-2, +3)
Obama: 53% favorable; - 45% unfavorable (-1, +1)

New results from Missouri and Michigan will be released at noon Eastern. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest results on the Washington Governor’s race will be released.

[Alcon]

McCain: 54% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (-2, +3)
Obama: 53% favorable; - 45% unfavorable (-1, +1)

The U.S. must have had a crappy Thursday.

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday, August 9, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1)
Obama: 44% / 46%, including leaners (nc, -1)

McCain leads by nineteen points among White Men and by eight points among White Women. Obama leads 94% to 5% among African-American voters and by twenty-one points among Hispanic voters.

Favorability

McCain: 54% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)
Obama: 53% favorable; - 45% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Rowan]

Only up 21 among Hispanics? The other polls have it as a 2-1 margin for Obama.

But at least you can't say that Rasmussen is underpolling the black margin for Obama.

[Tender Branson]

Only up 21 among Hispanics? The other polls have it as a 2-1 margin for Obama.

But at least you can't say that Rasmussen is underpolling the black margin for Obama.

It would be interesting what the composition looks like in Rasmussen's daily tracking. Maybe 7% of Rasmussen's sample is Hispanic/African-American, but 10% will be Hispanic/African-American on Election Day. Is phone ownership among Hispanics and African-Americans lower than among Whites ? Maybe some Hispanics just hang up the phone because they can't understand a single question the computer voice is asking them, but on Election Day they'll make their cross next to Obama's name ...

[Democratic Hawk]

Only up 21 among Hispanics? The other polls have it as a 2-1 margin for Obama.

But at least you can't say that Rasmussen is underpolling the black margin for Obama.

Only up 21 among Hispanics? The other polls have it as a 2-1 margin for Obama.

But at least you can't say that Rasmussen is underpolling the black margin for Obama.

For comparative purposes, though it's registered voters, the most recent weekly tracking data from Gallup gives vote by race as follows [Rasmussen lead in color]:

White Men: McCain 55%; Obama 34% (McCain +21) +19
White Women: McCain 47%; Obama 41% (McCain +6) +8
Hispanic: Obama 57%; McCain 30% (Obama +27) +21
Black: Obama 86%; McCain 5% (Obama +81) + 89

The Rasmussen numbers are more recent, however. Gallup's data is from week ending Sunday, 3rd August

Dave

[Tender Branson]

Sunday, August 10, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (+1, +2)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (-1, -1)

80% of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama while 87% of Republicans say they’ll vote for McCain. The two candidates are essentially even among unaffiliated voters.

Favorability

Obama: 54% favorable - 44% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 54% favorable - 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Rowan]

Must have been a very good day of polling for Obama on Saturday in order to make a 3 point swing.

Not that I am surprised that Obama polled well on a weekend.

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday, August 10, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (+1, +2)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (-1, -1)

80% of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama while 87% of Republicans say they’ll vote for McCain. The two candidates are essentially even among unaffiliated voters.

Favorability

Obama: 54% favorable - 44% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 54% favorable - 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Additionally,

Forty-four percent (44%) of voters say that the economy is the top issue of Election 2008 while 22% see national security issues as the top priority. Twelve percent (12%) see domestic issues like Social Security and Health Care as most important while 9% hold that view of fiscal issues such as taxes and government spending. Six percent (6%) say cultural issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion matter most when casting their vote.

Obama leads by twenty-six percentage points among those who say the economy is the most important issue. He also is overwhelmingly favored by those who see domestic issues as most important.

McCain leads by thirty-eight percentage points among national security voters and holds huge advantages among those who say fiscal or cultural issues are their top priority.

[Tender Branson]

Note that exactly 4 years ago Bush moved ahead of Kerry indefinitely. Only a few dubious polls (Zogby/Harris) from Mid-August on had Kerry slightly ahead. All others started showing Bush up by 5-10. Rasmussen for example noted that Kerry never led in their weekly tracking average from August 19 on to Election Day. It's very different this year: If we include the Research2000 poll that was somehow not included in the RCP average, Obama currently leads by 5%. Even if we just take into account Rasmussen and Gallup, it's Obama by 3-4%. Another point: I want an Indiana poll ... soon if possible !

[Sam Spade]

Note that exactly 4 years ago Bush moved ahead of Kerry indefinitely. Only a few dubious polls (Zogby/Harris) from Mid-August on had Kerry slightly ahead. All others started showing Bush up by 5-10. Rasmussen for example noted that Kerry never led in their weekly tracking average from August 19 on to Election Day. It's very different this year: If we include the Research2000 poll that was somehow not included in the RCP average, Obama currently leads by 5%. Even if we just take into account Rasmussen and Gallup, it's Obama by 3-4%. Another point: I want an Indiana poll ... soon if possible !

Is there a point to this?  The Bush 5-10 point lead had to do with a couple of things - first off Republican overpolling after Labor Day and depression in Democratic enthusiasm after the GOP convention, which might have actually shown up on election day if Bush had knocked it out of the park on the first debate (not that Bush would have won by 10 points, 5 points with lowered Dem enthusiasm is possible).

Anyway, I digress.  You want to believe your average - that's fine.   

The fact is that the race is roughly about Obama +2% right now, as it has been since the second week of July.  Before that, it had been roughly about Obama +4% since he clinched the nomination in early July.

The important thing is to note where this 2% shift came from.  It does not come from Obama losing any of his hard voters.  Rather, it comes from McCain hardening a percentage of some of his former soft leaners, with corresponding smaller shifts in Obama leaners and true undecided. (which explains why pushing leaners is about even or slightly favoring Obama as opposed to before when it always favored McCain)

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday, August 11, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable; - 43% unfavorable (+2, -1)
Obama: 55% favorable; - 43% unfavorable (+1, -1)

Today at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, polling data will be released for the Oregon Senate race. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released for the Presidential race in Oregon and Iowa.

[Lief 🗽]

I wish Rasmussen would poll Indiana.

[Sam Spade]

In the form of Hawk...
Tuesday, August 12, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable / ? unfavorable (nc, n/a)
Obama: 55% favorable / ? unfavorable (nc, n/a)

Obama is supported by 77% of Democrats while McCain earns the vote from 85% of Republicans. The two candidates are essentially even among unaffiliated voters.

Just 19% believe the nation is generally heading in the right direction while 76% disagree and say the United States has gotten off on the wrong track. Ninety percent (90%) of Democrats say the nation is on the wrong track along with 59% of Republicans and 76% of those not affiliated with either major party.

[Alcon]

No Rassy polls today?

[Sam Spade]

No Rassy polls today?

Just some useless policy issue questions it looks like.

[Tender Branson]

No Rassy polls today?

Just some useless policy issue questions it looks like.

I just e-mailed Rasmussen if they ever plan to conduct an Indiana poll before the election. There's been no serious poll from Indiana since about 3 months now. This is one state that should be polled once in a while ...

[Eraserhead]

I wish Rasmussen would poll Indiana.

I wish anyone would.

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday - August 13, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 48%, including leaners (-1, nc)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (-1, nc)

Obama is supported by 12% of Republicans while McCain earns the vote from 16% of Democrats. The two candidates are essentially even among unaffiliated voters. Twenty percent (20%) of Republicans offer a favorable opinion of Obama while 29% of Democrats say the same about McCain.

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, 44% unfavorable (+1, +1)
McCain: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (-1, nc)

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern today, the latest data from Kansas will be released and, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest numbers will be released on the Presidential race in Virginia and Nevada.

[Brittain33]

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern today, the latest data from Kansas will be released and, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest numbers will be released on the Presidential race in Virginia and Nevada.

Ok, I'm sure there are good reasons for releasing information at those times and in that order, but the effect is just cruel.

[Tender Branson]

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern today, the latest data from Kansas will be released and, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest numbers will be released on the Presidential race in Virginia and Nevada.

Ok, I'm sure there are good reasons for releasing information at those times and in that order, but the effect is just cruel.

Kansas: McCain 52%, Obama 39%

Virginia: Obama 46%, McCain 46%

Nevada: Obama 48%, McCain 46%

[Sam Spade]

Looks like there might be a slight move back to Obama of a couple of points this past week, but I'm not 100% sure yet.

[Josh/Devilman88]

This isn't a good sign for McCain, in 2004 this is when Bush moved ahead of Kerry.