Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll Thread

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday 27 May, 2008
.....

Obama 49% (-1)
Clinton 43% (-1)

.....

McCain 47% (+2)
Obama 44% (-1)

Clinton 48% (+1)
McCain 44% (-1)

.....

McCain 50% favorable - 46% unfavorable (-, -)
Obama 48% favorable - 49% unfavorable (-, -)
Clinton 48% favorable - 49% unfavorable (-, -1)

[Umengus]

Tuesday 27 May, 2008
.....

Obama 49% (-1)
Clinton 43% (-1)

.....

McCain 47% (+2)
Obama 44% (-1)

Clinton 48% (+1)
McCain 44% (-1)

.....

McCain 50% favorable - 46% unfavorable (-, -)
Obama 48% favorable - 49% unfavorable (-, -)
Clinton 48% favorable - 49% unfavorable (-, -1)

I don't understand the clinton numbers. Maybe that many americans have admiration for her "perseverance", her fight spirit, her "I against the world".

[kevinatcausa]

One possible answer:

Obama is currently behind McCain due to the lingering resentment of Clinton supporters who feel that he robbed their candidate from the nomination she deserved.  Obama supporters no longer feel such a resentment (as they feel she is no longer a serious threat for the nomination) and are willing to support her in a (in their minds completely hypothetical) matchup against McCain because of this. 

If the above explanation is correct, the poll numbers would be reversed if Clinton actually became the nominee.

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday 28 May, 2008
.....

Obama 48% (-1)
Clinton 44% (+1)

.....

McCain 47% (-)
Obama 43% (-1)

McCain is supported by 83% of Republicans and 43% of unaffiliated voters. Obama earns the vote from 70% of Democrats and 40% of unaffiliated voters

Clinton 46% (-2)
McCain 45% (+1)

.....

McCain 50% favorable - 46% unfavorable (-, -)
Obama 48% favorable - 49% unfavorable (-, -)
Clinton 48% favorable - 50% unfavorable (-, +1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday 29 May, 2008
.....

Obama 47% (-1)
Clinton 44% (-)

.....

McCain 47% (-)
Obama 42% (-1)

McCain leads 58% to 33% among Evangelical Christians and by six points among other Protestant voters. Consistent with results from many recent state polls, McCain does better among those who attend Church or other religious services on a regular basis. Obama is stronger among those who rarely or never attend services

McCain 46% (+1)
Clinton 46% (-)

.....

McCain 52% favorable - 45% unfavorable (+2, -1)
Obama 48% favorable - 49% unfavorable (-, -)
Clinton 48% favorable - 51% unfavorable (-, +1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday 30 May, 2008
.....

Obama 48% (+1)
Clinton 43% (-1)

.....

McCain 46% (-1)
Obama 43% (+1)

McCain 46% (-)
Clinton 46% (-)

.....

McCain 50% favorable - 47% unfavorable (-2, +2)
Clinton 47% favorable - 52% unfavorable (-1, +1)
Obama 46% favorable - 52% unfavorable (-2, +3)

[Umengus]

the obama unfav > fav seems durable.

[Tender Branson]

Saturday - May 31, 2008

Democratic Primary:

Obama - 48%
Clinton - 43%

General Election:

McCain vs. Obama: 46-43
McCain vs. Clinton: 47-44

Favorables:

McCain: 52% favorable - 46% unfavorable
Clinton: 47% favorable - 52% unfavorable
Obama: 45% favorable - 53% unfavorable

[Sam Spade]

The problem that I'm having with believing Rasmussen polling at present is that its state matchups simply do not correspond with its national numbers.  I mean, I can explain the reason partially, but it is simply unsatisfactory to me.

[Eraserhead]

Obama's favorability numbers don't make any sense either.

[Sam Spade]

Obama's favorability numbers don't make any sense either.

I think most of that has to do with the way the question is asked, rather than any flaw in the polling, frankly.  Though one wonders...

[Eraserhead]

Obama's favorability numbers don't make any sense either.

I think most of that has to do with the way the question is asked, rather than any flaw in the polling, frankly.  Though one wonders...

Yes, Rasmussen has a different system from many of the other major pollsters. Even taking that into account, they seem oddly low.

[Umengus]

low but logical. I would not be surprised if his fav score is the conventionnal result in november.

Considering how many well rasmussen did in 2004...

[Umengus]

The problem that I'm having with believing Rasmussen polling at present is that its state matchups simply do not correspond with its national numbers.  I mean, I can explain the reason partially, but it is simply unsatisfactory to me.

connecticut (Kerry by 11%, Obama only by 3 and it's the last rasmussen poll)

[Gustaf]

The problem that I'm having with believing Rasmussen polling at present is that its state matchups simply do not correspond with its national numbers.  I mean, I can explain the reason partially, but it is simply unsatisfactory to me.

Sam, my compilation of Rasmussen polls indicates a tied national race (not sure if we use the same system though). That doesn't rhyme with McCain +3 and the MoE should be pretty low given the large number of polls included in such a compilation, but still...not too much of a difference? But perhaps your system has a sophisticated way of dealing with the time lag...

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday 1 June, 2008
.....

Obama 48% (-)
Clinton 43% (-)

.....

McCain 46% (-)
Obama 45% (+2)

McCain 47% (-)
Clinton 44% (-)

.....

McCain 50% favorable - 47% unfavorable (-2, +1)
Obama 47% favorable - 50% unfavorable (+2, -3)
Clinton 47% favorable - 52% unfavorable (-, -)

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday 2 June, 2008
.....

Obama 47% (-1)
Clinton 42% (-1)

.....

McCain 45% (-1)
Obama 45% (-)

McCain 46% (-1)
Clinton 44% (-)

.....

McCain 49% favorable - 48% unfavorable (-1, +1)
Obama 47% favorable - 50% unfavorable (-, -)
Clinton 47% favorable - 52% unfavorable (-, -)

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday 3 June, 2008
.....

Obama 49% (+2)
Clinton 42% (-)

.....

McCain 46% (+1)
Obama 46% (+1)

.....

McCain 51% favorable - 46% unfavorable (+2, -2)
Obama 48% favorable - 49% unfavorable (+1, -1)

Finally, it would seem that Clinton is no longer being polled in general election head-to-heads or favorables

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm closing this thread and setting a new one away