Official South Dakota and Montana Democratic Primary Results Discussion Thread

[Meeker]

South Dakota:

Should Obama pick Clinton as VP?
Yes 55%
No 41%

Among Obama supporters:
Yes 40%
No 56%

"fascinating"

Don't those numbers indicated that Obama's in trouble in South Dakota? For there to be a 15 point positive spread when the two groups are combined as opposed to a 15 point negative spread with Obama on their own?

[Torie]

Ya, why don't they have a question like "Do you think Obama hates white people?" or "Do you think Hillary hates men?", and when 55% say yes, then you have at least a hint of what's shaking. 

[Verily]

South Dakota:

Should Obama pick Clinton as VP?
Yes 55%
No 41%

Among Obama supporters:
Yes 40%
No 56%

"fascinating"

Don't those numbers indicated that Obama's in trouble in South Dakota? For there to be a 15 point positive spread when the two groups are combined as opposed to a 15 point negative spread with Obama on their own?

Depends how strong the Clinton people are for her as VP. If they say she should be by a margin of 80-20 (which wouldn't be remotely surprising), he'd be substantially in the lead.

[Alcon]

Don't those numbers indicated that Obama's in trouble in South Dakota? For there to be a 15 point positive spread when the two groups are combined as opposed to a 15 point negative spread with Obama on their own?

Exactly what I was calculating...for a tie, over 70% of Clinton supporters would need to say "yes" to that question.

Not particularly great news for Obama.  Keep a look out for the Clinton supporter numbers.

[Franzl]

Don't those numbers indicated that Obama's in trouble in South Dakota? For there to be a 15 point positive spread when the two groups are combined as opposed to a 15 point negative spread with Obama on their own?

Exactly what I was calculating...for a tie, over 70% of Clinton supporters would need to say "yes" to that question.

Not particularly great news for Obama.  Keep a look out for the Clinton supporter numbers.

Actually though, don't you think that would be probable, that 70% of Clinton voters would support that?

[Alcon]

Don't those numbers indicated that Obama's in trouble in South Dakota? For there to be a 15 point positive spread when the two groups are combined as opposed to a 15 point negative spread with Obama on their own?

Exactly what I was calculating...for a tie, over 70% of Clinton supporters would need to say "yes" to that question.

Not particularly great news for Obama.  Keep a look out for the Clinton supporter numbers.

Actually though, don't you think that would be probable, that 70% of Clinton voters would support that?

That's a good question, really.  It depends on how high the delusion vote is, and how the question is asked.

[Mr. Morden]

The earlier AP story has been updated to include this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[TheresNoMoney]

Ya, why don't they have a question like "Do you think Obama hates white people?"

Obama is half-white, why would he hate himself?

[Mr. Morden]

Ya, why don't they have a question like "Do you think Obama hates white people?"

Obama is half-white, why would he hate himself?

He might have a love-hate relationship with himself.  50% love and 50% hate.

[Eraserhead]

Well MT sounds like a blowout. I'm pretty worried about SD though.

[Alcon]

The South Dakota numbers are weird.  Nearly 70% consider Clinton honest and trustworthy?  That's a big WTF -- she hasn't seen those numbers since West Virginia and Kentucky.  Then again, in WV & KY, Obama was in the negatives in honest/trustworthy.

As for Montana, those numbers nearly exactly match Indiana, maybe each being a little less approved-of.

Could ARG be right???

[Torie]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You heard something EH?

[Meeker]

I favor expelling South Dakota from the Union if they eff this one up tonight.

[Eraserhead]

Tonight is going to be lame if he loses SD.

[Alcon]

Honestly, judging only by the exit polls, I'd give up on South Dakota now and worry about Montana at this juncture.

Of course, we could see a different dynamic here than in previous races...

[Eraserhead]

Has anyone leaked actual head to head numbers?

[Verily]

Honestly, judging only by the exit polls, I'd give up on South Dakota now and worry about Montana at this juncture.

Of course, we could see a different dynamic here than in previous races...

We haven't seen a single exit poll in any of the similar states (all being caucuses).

[Mr. Morden]

http://thepage.time.com/

Fox: 59% of Clinton supporters in Montana and 61% in South Dakota say they plan to vote for Obama over McCain in the general.

51% in Montana and 55% in South Dakota say Obama should pick Clinton as Veep.

[Mr. Morden]

Has anyone leaked actual head to head numbers?

Nothing yet from the usual sources.  We might not get any leaks of overall numbers.  They rarely ever leak stuff like that for the smaller states.

[Verily]

Wait, are those totals or just Clinton supporters for VP? Because if it's Clinton supporters the numbers don't add up.

[Meeker]

It seems like all the voters are more unity-minded on quite a few issues. Maybe that's what Clinton's trust numbers are so much higher.

[Mr. Morden]

Wait, are those totals or just Clinton supporters for VP? Because if it's Clinton supporters the numbers don't add up.

I guess these are Clinton supporters only:
---------
Fox: 59% of Clinton supporters in Montana and 61% in South Dakota say they plan to vote for Obama over McCain in the general.

and these are among all Democratic primary voters:
---------
51% in Montana and 55% in South Dakota say Obama should pick Clinton as Veep.

Or maybe I'm misinterpreting?

[Verily]

But this says otherwise, Morden. Unless Alcon had it wrong and the first number was Clinton supporters only.

South Dakota:

Should Obama pick Clinton as VP?
Yes 55%
No 41%

Among Obama supporters:
Yes 40%
No 56%

"fascinating"

[Mr. Morden]

Also, there's this:

http://thepage.time.com/preliminary-exit-results-from-cnn/

-------
If Obama wins the nomination, whom will you vote for? (South Dakota)

Obama: 61%
Would not vote: 17%
McCain: 16%
Other: 6%
--------

I think that's among Clinton supporters, but I'm not 100% sure.  They're making this too confusing for us. 

[Alcon]

I'm not sure what you mean, Verily.  Both say that in South Dakota, 55% say Clinton should be the VP.