My take on these elections:
- By far the worst result: I-976 passing. It it likely to be overturned in the WA Supreme Court, but it will seriously hamper Sound Transit and the organization's ability to build out the transit system authorized in ST-3 if not repealed. More pressing, however, is the decimation that this will bring to Seattle's Transportation Benefit District that supplies additional funds to provide significant bus service hours in the city. Currently 70% of households in Seattle are 1/4 mile from transit that comes every 15 minutes or less. That would plummet to 40-45% without the funding. The city will be able to cover funding next year, but that's not a solution that can last much longer than that.
- Amazon Basics: They basically all failed. Technically 2/7 of their candidates won - Juarez (cross-endorsed by everyone) and Pederson (I'll get to this later). Seattle's (progressive) Silent Majority came out enforce to repudiate the unprecedented barrage of corporate campaign dollars in a local election.
- Sawant vs. Orion: I've seen a lot of takes on Twitter and in general that I think miss the mark. I don't think she won because Socialists came out of the woodwork, but because she faced a flawed opponent. Her base is strong and will always get out to vote for her. Sawant is very much a polarizing figure that can absolutely be beat if an actual progressive ran against her (from the primary - Ami Nguyen/Logan Bowers/Zac deWolf). However, her last two opponents have been total duds. Pamela Banks (2015 candidate) was worse than Orion, who himself only got through the primary thanks to CASE spending and cozying up to Amazon. I'm not a D3 voter and am not a fan of Sawant (I admire her fight for the working class - that has produced real results like the $15 min wage - but I have a dislike for her as a politician and her ideology), but I would have voted both in 2015 and last week for her. I think that's how a lot of voters feel.
- D4 Pedersen vs Scott: Heartbreak. My favorite candidate lost to my least favorite. While Pedersen was one of the Amazon supported candidates, this race cleaved along different lines: NIMBY vs YIMBY (or pro-growth). Scott is DSA, but he's also an ardent urbanist and YIMBY-through-a-socialist-lens. It's also why he was ultimately unsuccessful IMO. Pedersen is less of a corporate candidate than he is an anti-growth, "lesser Seattle" one. Sawant received substantial support from precincts dominated by single-family home owners (and renters) that cannot be said for Scott. As a result we trade two awesome ex/interim-councilmembers (Johnson and Pacheco) for someone who opposes transit (was against ST3 and TBD funding for enhanced bus service), bike lanes, and HALA/MHA - the policy that upzoned much of Seattle and created mandatory affordable housing in all new multi-family development.
- Most progressive council in a long time: I think we'll see a more aggressive version of the head tax and I think it will honestly be better received than last time.
What was Egan Orion thinking setting up HQ at Uncle Ike's? He does realize that Ian Eisenberg is absolutely loathed in the Central District, right? It came across as tone deaf, and no wonder he lost. Anti-Sawant people need to get smarter and put up a non-polarizing progressive candidate.
