Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Roll Roons]

https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/StateExecutive-All.html

In terms of other row offices, Wyman is leading for SoS, and the Democrat is leading for Treasurer.

[Roll Roons]

Actually WTF happened? Schrier has less than 43% of the vote in WA-08, JHB is leading 56-40 over Long, Inslee is going to dip below 50%. Pretty awful results for WA Democrats.

Also, Kim Wyman with a majority of the statewide vote.

She got more total votes than Inslee as of right now (1,009,382 to 1,001,363).

Wow, Wyman should run in 2024; she'd have a fighting chance.

Idk. The Governorship in Washington has always been Lucy and the football for Republicans. They've gotten close several times (2004, 2008, 2012) but never actually managed to make it happen. Same deal with Oregon.

[Roll Roons]

Actually WTF happened? Schrier has less than 43% of the vote in WA-08, JHB is leading 56-40 over Long, Inslee is going to dip below 50%. Pretty awful results for WA Democrats.

Also, Kim Wyman with a majority of the statewide vote.

She got more total votes than Inslee as of right now (1,009,382 to 1,001,363).

Wow, Wyman should run in 2024; she'd have a fighting chance.

Idk. The Governorship in Washington has always been Lucy and the football for Republicans. They've gotten close several times (2004, 2008, 2012) but never actually managed to make it happen. Same deal with Oregon.

Wyman could honestly pull it off if she isn't facing Inslee or Denny Heck, she's definitely a strong candidate, but so was McKenna, and he lost in 2012, it'd surely be close though.

She is a great candidate and would keep it close, but for whatever reason, Washington is willing to elect Republicans to some statewide offices but never the governorship. Maybe they could have done it if gubernatorial elections were in midterm years rather than presidential.

[Roll Roons]

Random question: How come jungle primary results in Washington tend to be good predictors of the general while those in California often aren't?

[Roll Roons]

Wyman is up by 5 statewide and getting over 40% in King County. Thurston County was Biden +23 and Wyman +18. Pretty amazing performance on her part. Polarization isn't absolute after all.

[Roll Roons]

Wyman is up by 5 statewide and getting over 40% in King County. Thurston County was Biden +23 and Wyman +18. Pretty amazing performance on her part. Polarization isn't absolute after all.

With these numbers, she should be on track to win reelection, correct? Elsewhere, other moderate Republican officeholders such as Collins and Fitzpatrick have also won reelection, in spite of Biden wins in their districts/states.

Yeah, she's got it in the bag.

[Roll Roons]

If Davison pulls this off, I guess it shows that even one of the most loony left places in the country has its limits.

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Not sure if this was posted, but a poll was released for the City Attorney race a couple days ago.
https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2021/10/ann-davison-pulling-away-from-rival-nicole-thomas-kennedy-in-seattle-city-attorney-race.html

Davison 43%, Lunatic 24%, the rest undecided. Honestly, this is probably a better parallel to Jones-Moore than Brown-Coakley.

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If WA GOP wants to win the governor's seat they need the Democrats to nominate some frothing lunatic like NTK.  But the statewide Democratic Party would never do something so damn suicidal.  It's just Seattle that has these insane politics.  It's not like Seattle Dems are behind NTK either -- the LD organizations making these endorsements are dominated by just the same extremist activists as every other organization in this city and don't actually represent local Dems at all.

Hate to burst your bubble, but this is the chair of the WA Democratic Party:
https://twitter.com/Tinapo/status/1451198703297974288

Or claiming that Davison is an "MTG wannabe":
https://twitter.com/Tinapo/status/1448693640339988489

[Roll Roons]

Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

I really hope you're right about that one.

[Roll Roons]

What percent of the vote will Davison get in Broadmoor?

It was like 27% Trump and 67% Wyman. It also narrowly voted for Romney in 2012.

She does even better than Wyman.

[Roll Roons]

Only news I have to post is a Crosscut/Elway approval poll of my man Bruce Harrell:

40% approve
19% disapprove
41% no opinion

killing it so far

Anything about Davison? As awful as NTK was, I still can't get over the fact that a Republican actually won in Seattle.

[Roll Roons]

I didn't do quite as well as I'd hoped, but I made it through the primary.

Congrats! Best of luck in the general.