Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

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New Poll: Washington President by Survey USA on 2020-10-12

Summary: D: 55%, R: 34%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Crosstabs suggest that Inslee-Trump Latinos and Culp-Biden Asians are a thing. They also suggest that Metro Seattle gubernatorial debate watchers thought Culp the anti-masker won the debate.

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So basically, the WA GOP can’t really figure out to get a wide base of support in the state and it’s only going to get more difficult unless Seattle stops growing and becomes more economically depressed.

Not to mention Californians like me moving out there on a daily basis (Myself hopefully included soon)

Do Californians tend to move to Seattle, the surrounding cities, or the rural areas?

Probably mostly Seattle proper + the surrounding suburbs, and not the other major cities in WA state or rural areas. One of my high school friends moved to the Bay Area after college, and then moved to Seattle a few months ago.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/Kshama_SC/status/1466069761805021189

This is pretty good PR to lower-engagement voters on paper- exactly the kind of coalition a more left-wing candidate would want in a heavily under-40, progressive big-city environment.

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Both Sawant and the recall figureheads says it’s over, it’s over

Sawant should primary cantwell

SAlt will run as their own. What I suspect is that after 2023 they’ll have her run for state senate/house and then statewide.

Honestly, Sawant would make a good VP for 2028. The question becomes VP for whom.

Obviously, you're a Sawant supporter, but why has she been so controversial and faced so many challenges? I know virtually nothing about her.

According to a "joint statement from the Jewish, Black, and Asian communities" (of Seattle proper), which was previously posted here by GenMac, she has:

• regularly traded in rhetoric giving rise in anti-Semitism, resulting in violence directed at Jewish residents
• sought to hijack the efforts of BLM organizers to promote her own political agenda, which has been well-documented by local news coverage
• refused to advocate for East/Southeast Asian small business owners by falsely equating poverty with crime
• approrpriated her own South Asian identity for political gain without adequately representing her AAPI constituents
• admitted to using city resources to support a ballot initiative, without complying with a public disclosure requirement related to this support
• disobeyed a state order and endangered public workers by admitting hundreds of people into City Hall on June 9th, 2020

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What happened in the state of Washington in the midterms is also a clue, Republicans gained in Minority areas of the state and Democrats with Whites, the result was Democrats picking up an extra Seat because Minority Seats were Safe Seats.

So the "brown vote" doesn't matter that much until the GOP wins 60% with them, instead of the current 40%, but it's getting there slowly. I say around 2032.

Can someone who's familiar with 2022 results in the various King County Seattle suburbs and Tacoma give a detailed breakdown of what happened here? Or how much of the Yakima Valley House, Senate, and State Legislature swings were from turnout changes vs persuasion?

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What happened in the state of Washington in the midterms is also a clue, Republicans gained in Minority areas of the state and Democrats with Whites, the result was Democrats picking up an extra Seat because Minority Seats were Safe Seats.

So the "brown vote" doesn't matter that much until the GOP wins 60% with them, instead of the current 40%, but it's getting there slowly. I say around 2032.

Can someone who's familiar with 2022 results in the various King County Seattle suburbs and Tacoma give a detailed breakdown of what happened here? Or how much of the Yakima Valley House, Senate, and State Legislature swings were from turnout changes vs persuasion?

Would be nice if someone has access to precinct data (and knowledge of spatial distribution/turnout patterns of POC voters) for congressional and state-level races.

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Dave's Redistricting actually has the new districts mapped.

Districts with noticeable changes (Biden #s):

LD-5:    59.6-36.4 D >>> 57.6-39.0 D | Likely D
LD-8:    55.9-40.2 R >>> 59.3-37.1 R | Safe R
LD-12:  49.3-47.4 R >>> 49.6-47.0 D | Lean R to Tilt R
LD-14:  51.7-45.6 R >>> 56.6-41.0 D | Likely R to Likely D
LD-15:  48.87-48.68 D >>> 59.0-38.4 R | Tilt R to Safe R
LD-16:   58.3-38.0 R >>> 55.6-41.3 D | Safe R
LD-17:   50.3-46.7 D >>> 51.7-45.2 D| Tilt R to Tossup

Richland and Kennewick of the Tri-Cities are mostly (almost entirely?) within LD-16, while Pasco is split 3-ways across LD-8, LD-16, and LD-14. LD-17 seems demographically centered on easternmost Vancouver, Camas, and Washougal in Metro Portland.