Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle (user search)
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle (search mode)
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 837222 times)
Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« on: August 11, 2008, 10:09:32 PM »

Er, you are voting in the General election already?
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2010, 12:44:24 PM »

Alcon, what office are you running for?  You forgot to mention that. Smiley
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2010, 02:17:34 PM »

John Fund, in the course of  commenting on  the California jungle primary proposition, stated that the suggestion that it will help elect less partisan and more moderate candidates is bunk, citing as evidence what the jungle primary has wrought in Washington State. He says scholarly studies show that Washington has the most partisan and ideologically polarized legislature in the country, which if true certainly surprises me. Any comment from the Washington State aficionados around here?
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2010, 08:04:15 PM »

Hey, why is no one commenting about my John Fund comment above?  Alcon? Bgwah?

You know lawyers tend to lash out when they get ignored. Tongue
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2010, 11:55:42 PM »

Thanks Bgwah and Meeker. It seemed like the posited causal connection was BS to me, but I just wanted to check and see if what seemed to me to be the obvious through my long range and opaque lens, was as well to those who don't any lens at all to observe the action on a day to day basis.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2010, 09:49:38 PM »

I would be surprised if WA-3 does not go GOP this year, if that is the Vancouver district, in which event the Pubbie might be around a long time then.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2010, 10:04:28 PM »

I wonder how the Portland burbs are trending these days.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2010, 10:24:55 PM »

Also, does anyone here have any 'Patty Murray for Senate' sigs that I can use in mine? 

Is Murray as dumb as I think she is?  I mean I consider her the second dumbest senator in the Senate, after Bunning.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #8 on: June 25, 2010, 10:44:23 PM »

I never really got the impression that she's dumb, but mostly I've only seen her speak on non-political issues.

What does she talk about? Tennis shoes? What is her favorite brand?
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #9 on: July 03, 2010, 06:28:33 PM »

What kind of female name is Jaime?

It's a more common name for females than for males.

Unless of course you are Hispanic. My best friend in business school was from Mexico City. His name was Jaime. Jaime by the way is now very rich, very rich, running some business empire for one of the richest Mexicans in Mexico. We used to study together. He did the heavy math; I did the heavy writing, and together, we just aced everything.  Smiley
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #10 on: July 03, 2010, 06:51:44 PM »

My Mexican friend pronounced it high-may.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #11 on: August 10, 2010, 10:25:43 AM »
« Edited: August 10, 2010, 01:43:47 PM by Torie »

Here is a story about that crap poll for WA-3 and stuff. Enjoy.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2010, 05:31:11 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2010, 05:38:21 PM by Torie »

Are you gonna claim credit for Laurie coming out on top Ben?  Come on, be a man and just do it!  You know you're that good right?  Smiley

Of course you guys did F up in one way. A few of you should have voted  for the Pubbie so that he came in second. That way, the general election would be in the bag, since it appears the district is not a Pubbie friendly zone. But alas, it isn't in the bag with another Dem still alive and kicking, so now you need to do it all over again to put the Fey guy away. Do I have this right?
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #13 on: September 06, 2010, 09:52:17 AM »

What caused Mercer Island to go Dem in the past few years or whatever?  I remember when it was comfortably GOP.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #14 on: September 07, 2010, 11:16:21 PM »

Final result by CD
1st: 53.0-45.5 (D+7.5)
2nd: 47.0-51.7 (R+4.5)
3rd: 45.1-53.0 (R+7.9)
4th: 30.4-68.4 (R+37.9)
5th: 38.4-59.7 (R+21.3)
6th: 50.8-47.5 (D+3.3)
7th: 78.0-20.6 (D+57.5)
8th: 45.5-53.0 (R+7.5)
9th: 49.5-48.7 (D+0.7)
Total: 48.5-49.9 (R+1.3)

Don't really want to post the LDs at the moment, but the ones within ten points were:  1st, 5th, 10th, 19th, 23rd, 24th, 26th, 28th, 30th, 35th, 38th, 41st, 44th, 45th, 47th, 48th & 49th.

What is the aggregate partisan split of all these CD's in sum? I am curious to compare it to the Senate race numbers. These numbers suggest something more GOP than the Senate numbers.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #15 on: September 07, 2010, 11:46:21 PM »

Thanks guys.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #16 on: October 04, 2010, 08:48:55 PM »
« Edited: October 04, 2010, 11:55:59 PM by Torie »

Patty Murray is brilliant. Anyone who disagrees doesn't know what they're talking about.

That would not be the first time for me, but ...  well anyway, I admire your loyalty to your girl. By the way, Dick Morris says that Rossi is the most important GOP candidate to send money to. Rossi represents the 10th GOP pickup, and thus control of the Senate,  is the reason. So how much money do you think I should send Rossi, Bgwah?  
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2010, 09:21:41 PM »

Patty Murray is brilliant. Anyone who disagrees doesn't know what they're talking about.

That would not be the first time for me, but ...  well anyway, I admire your loyalty to your girl. By the way, Dick Morris says that Rossi is the most important GOP candidate to send money to. Rossi represents the 10th GOP pickup, and thus control of the Senate,  is the reason. So how much money do you think I should send Rossi, Bgwah? 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XSLfm_h1WY

Do you really think he sounds smart? Tongue

It was fine, but rather cliche ridden, and his delivery was uneven in places. But your problem with it is perhaps more about that you don't agree with Rossi that the Obama program sucked. Isn't that a fair comment?
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Torie
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*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2010, 09:39:20 PM »

Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?

In my perfect world, a commission would draw all districts across the Fruited Plain, and try to create as many competitive districts as possible as its metric.
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Torie
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*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2010, 11:56:07 AM »
« Edited: November 05, 2010, 03:56:28 PM by Torie »

Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?

In my perfect world, a commission would draw all districts across the Fruited Plain, and try to create as many competitive districts as possible as its metric.

Well, of course. But as long as Republicans are going to gerrymander Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, might as well let the Democrats gerrymander a few states to keep it fair.

Yes, of course. Have fun in Illinois. That is going to be really acrimonious, as some Dems are asked to dilute their seats down in the Chicago area. How will that shrill liberal in the north shore Chicago City district like having her district made more marginal I wonder? Sure the GOP will lose one downstate seat for sure, no matter what. I wonder how Muon2 thinks it will work out.
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Torie
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Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #20 on: November 09, 2010, 02:24:55 AM »

Hey, all you pinko WA commie libs. Does WA make this election a net plus for you, the way you humiliated the jack booted thugs in the promise land in a wave election for them outside this one particular sanctuary of sanity? Just asking. Cheers. Smiley
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Torie
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Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #21 on: November 18, 2010, 03:18:13 AM »
« Edited: November 18, 2010, 03:35:58 AM by Torie »

Do you guys get any idea of what the generic swing is to the Pubbies in WA in this election, versus 2008? One interesting thing in this election, is that in the present climate the swing seemed in general (with some variance at the top of  the tickets), to rather seamlessly flow through to almost every race, and it didn't matter much who was running - adjusting of course for the loyal GOP and Dem cohorts no matter what zones  (e.g., elite higher education precincts). I am beginning to appreciate that more and more, as I parse this election on a micro scale.

In Michigan for example, it is quite stunning. I mean, picking but one example, and there are many others in Michigan, Levin had a huge dump down in his numbers in his CD, outside his Jewish and black precincts, against a unfunded token zero for an opponent - at least I presume that was the case as to his opponent. In Levin's portion of southern Macomb County (middle to lower middle to working class white, and pretty heavily Catholic), his percentage dropped from 67% to 53%, while only dropping in his heavily Jewish and black portion of Oakland County, from 83% to 78%. Quite stunning, no?

And oh, what Dingell endured in his white precincts in Wayne County. Oh dear. But he did splendidly in Ann Arbor.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,057
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #22 on: November 18, 2010, 09:59:52 PM »

I must say that is ludicrous. If voters can't do it right, f them. To spend all that money that way is pathetic. JMO.
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Torie
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*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #23 on: November 19, 2010, 12:02:29 AM »

Thanks Ogre. Very interesting. Can you put a percentage number on the swing that returned Washington from bordering on uber Dem to somewhat Dem as it was in the early 2000's?
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Torie
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Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #24 on: December 02, 2010, 10:44:47 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2010, 10:59:59 PM by Torie »

Liquor will be interesting.  It did very well in the affluent exurbs.

Income tax is going to be fairly predictable.  Early preview:  Rich areas hated this.  It was in the 10%-20% range throughout the Medina/Clyde Hill area, parts of Bellevue, and places like Broadmoor.

Candy tax is also interesting.  That's one tax rich people were fine with; parts of Seattle almost passed the repeal.  Doesn't seem like they're necessarily doing a map of that one.

Haven't loked at the Eyman deal yet.

Rich liberals want a costly state, but are unwilling to tax themselves for it, eh?  I guess that makes them as useless as most groups that trim when it comes to public policy versus their self interest.
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