Washington state megathread

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Some Random Thoughts on R-71 results:

The King Co returns are stellar and I gave too much credit for Washington's libertarian streak, especially in Eastern WA.  Not surprised that it is faring poorly in the SW part of the state.

Could someone please enlighten me what's the deal with Pierce Co!?!?  This county sticks out like a sore thumb in each election.  I have a hard time believing R-71 is doing better in Skagit (Glenn Beck Co) and Clallam while it's trailing by 6% or more in Pierce Co.  Is Pierce Co the place all the disaffected blue collar, evangelical, pissed-off Palin fanbase hang out?  (The 7/161 corridor in Pierce Co sure feel a like an eerie mix of Tennessee and West Virgina).

The King Co Executive race is running pretty close to my prediction of a 15% margin.  In Bellevue, the progressive slate running for City Council are all trailing by significant margins.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

MAPS OR IT DIDNT HAPPEN.

[Meeker]

MAPS OR IT DIDNT HAPPEN.

Don just created a new forum meme.

[Meeker]

Also there's a preliminary Pierce abstract up.

AlconAlconAlconAlconAlconAlconAlcon!

[Alcon]

Could someone please enlighten me what's the deal with Pierce Co!?!?  This county sticks out like a sore thumb in each election.  I have a hard time believing R-71 is doing better in Skagit (Glenn Beck Co) and Clallam while it's trailing by 6% or more in Pierce Co.  Is Pierce Co the place all the disaffected blue collar, evangelical, pissed-off Palin fanbase hang out?  (The 7/161 corridor in Pierce Co sure feel a like an eerie mix of Tennessee and West Virgina).

The Skagit performance is impressive.  The measure didn't do that amazingly in "Glenn Beck Country" (Mount Vernon) but it outperformed Obama in both the Anacortes and La Conner areas.  Also, rural turnout seems to have been kind of low.  Any way you cut it, it was impressive (as was Clallam, where R-71 killed Obama in a good few rural precincts.)

Pierce County has a lot of socially status quo exurbanites.  Once you get outside of Tacoma proper, the county's residential areas are essentially a lower middle class sprawly morass.  University Place/Fircrest are more traditional suburbs,

Even within Tacoma, there's a definite cultural split.  You get south of about South 12th Street, and you get an increasing number of blue-collar union types who are Democratic but queasy about homosexuality.  Pierce County is also short on wealthy, educated, urbanized residential areas -- North Tacoma is pretty much it.

edit: holy crap holy crap preliminary pierce abstract

[Alcon]

Hey Meeker: University Place sucks.

[Meeker]

Hey Meeker: University Place sucks.

[Alcon]

Bonney Lake: 42%
Buckley: 42%
Carbonado: 32%
DuPont: 47%
Edgewood: 47%
Fife: 46%
Fircrest: 54%
Gig Harbor: 51%
Lakewood: 46%
Milton: 45%
Orting: 39%
Puyallup: 45%
Roy: 33%
Ruston: 52%
South Prairie: 47%
Steilacoom: 49%
Sumner: 50%
Tacoma: 56%
University Place: 49%
Wilkeson: 58%
Unincorporated: 42%

So, everyone got their asses kicked by Wilkeson, which was a Kerry/McCain town.

There are some nasty rural rejections (several >70).  Even some >60 Rejects in Tacoma.  On the other hand, R-71 is currently outpolling Obama in North Tacoma and breaking 80% in one precinct.

[Meeker]

The whole things weird all around the state. We shouldn't draw too many conclusions based on partial results though.

Also, if you get a chance, I'd be curious to see if there's any pattern to the RCV reject. I don't recall if we've ever mapped the 2006 or 2007 votes on that either.

[Sbane]

MAPS OR IT DIDNT HAPPEN.

http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/WEI/ResultsByCounty.aspx?ElectionID=32&RaceID=102369&CountyCode=%20&JurisdictionTypeID=-2&RaceTypeCode=M&ViewMode=Results

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

51% seems like a rather underwhelming result from one of the most socially liberal states for something that isn't even gay marriage. Of course allmost all of the people who claim that they don't hate gays, and just oppose gay marriage voted against this too.

[Meeker]

To our credit, a lot of our socially liberal voters don't turn out on off-year elections. Same thing could be said of Maine, of course. We also aren't done counting so the margin could tick up.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Thanks alcon for your insights - it really adds some context to the results.  I was in the North Tacoma area around N 18 St and Puget Sound Ave recently and that area has a certain New England old-money feel to me.  It was also where I saw the first approve R-71 lawn signs.

Pretty surprised that R-71 is running about even in Sumner though.

[Meeker]

Undervote on I-1033 in King County: 9.8%

Average undervote on I-1033 in the other 38 counties: 2.8%

If this had been closer the shitty ballot design would've made the thing pass.

[bgwah]

King County abstract!! http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/200911/GeneralElection-ENF.pdf

[bgwah]

From the Red County blog:

Councilman Dow Constantine smashed blue dog, moderate Democrat Susan Hutchinson in that election contest.

lololol

If you wanna kill a few brain cells, go here: http://www.redcounty.com/county/eastwashington

[Alcon]

Current R-71 numbers by KingCo LD with final Obama in brackets (wish I could find prelim ):

1st: 59-41 (63-36)
5th: 56-44 (57-41)
11th: 57-43 (71-27)
30th: 51-49 (59-39)
31st: 44-56 (51-47)
32nd: 65-35 (71-28)
33rd: 54-46 (64-35)
34th: 73-27 (78-21)
36th: 83-17 (84-15)
37th: 76-24 (86-13)
39th: 49-51 (62-33)
41st: 61-39 (64-35)
43rd: 90-10 (89-10)
45th: 59-41 (61-38)
46th: 79-21 (83-16)
47th: 49-51 (56-43)
48th: 63-37 (64-35)

R-71 is actually set to narrowly outpace Obama in the 43rd LD.  Elsewhere, some reasonably substantial losses.

[Alcon]

The Associated Press has called R-71 for Approve.

[Holmes]

I'm glad. The margin was really close though... maybe it has to do with all the attention being in Maine that all the resources went there instead. Plus all the Reject supporters thinking this has to do with marriage. And it was an off-off year election.

Well Washingtonians, get ready to be invaded by Schubert-Flint and NOM in the next few years.

[Ogre Mage]

As of now, R-71 is passing 52%-48% with about 69% of the vote counted.  The later returns are increasing the margin of victory.  We'll see how it looks once 100% is counted.

And despite the closeness, make no mistake -- this was a major victory.  I believe it was the first time gay/lesbian unions were placed on a statewide ballot and won.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

As of now, R-71 is passing 52%-48% with about 69% of the vote counted.  The later returns are increasing the margin of victory.  We'll see how it looks once 100% is counted.

And despite the closeness, make no mistake -- this was a major victory.  I believe it was the first time gay/lesbian unions were placed on a statewide ballot and won.

Not that they have them, but Arizona refused to ban civil unions. Prop. 107 failed with 48%.in 2006. They then passed Prop. 102 in 2008 banning just gay marriage. It got 56%, not that much higher than California and Maine got. There were sure a lot fewer Obama/ anti-gay marriages voters in Arizona than California.

[bgwah]

SoundPolitics hasn't even mentioned Susan Hutchison since the election, lol.

And HorsesAss seems to think she's subtly suggesting a Senate run. But that would make running as an "independent" a lot harder...

[Alaska2392]

After the latest update:

Seattle Mayor

Mike McGinn    75657    49.99%
Joe Mallahan    74448    49.19%
Write-in       1240    0.82%

McGinn extends his lead to just over 1200 votes.  The excitement is killing me. lol.

Look for the next update at 9:00 PM tonight!

I see little movement in much else.

[CultureKing]

and the viaduct saga continues...

UGH! Thanks Seattle.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

King Co Mail Ballot Return Stats 11/6 Update @8:00pm

Total Issued - 1084591   
Received Today - 106962
Cumulative Received To Date - 565993   
% Received - 52.18

King Co Results Update #2 @ 8:00pm

Referendum Measure No. 71

APPROVED       323525    67.72%
REJECTED       154214    32.28%

County Executive short and full term

Susan Hutchison       193282    41.40%
Dow Constantine       272762    58.42%
Write-in                       867              0.19%

CITY OF SEATTLE

Mayor

Mike McGinn       85416    50.31%
Joe Mallahan       83032    48.91%
Write-in               1328    0.78%

Looking good King County!  The R-71 approval % are far outpacing Kerry's and only 2.25% below Obama's blowout.  Eastern WA must be pissed!

I think McGinn has this one in the bag.