Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 837201 times)
Alcon
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« Reply #1175 on: September 16, 2009, 05:07:42 PM »
« edited: September 16, 2009, 05:09:56 PM by Alcon »

SUSA on Seattle mayor:

Mallahan 41%
McGinn 36%

Unsurprisingly, Mallahan does best among older voters, non-liberals (moderates/independents are actually polling like conservatives/GOPers), college graduates, the wealthy and the traditionally fancy-suit-appreciating Asian vote.

I'd complain about the age break-down in this poll being too young, but I did last time too, and look what happened then.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #1176 on: September 16, 2009, 05:21:28 PM »

I am fine with this. I personally don't want McGinn elected simply because of the viaduct issue. We need to commit to one solution rather than go back on our word and try to start from scratch. Remember the monorail?
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Alcon
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« Reply #1177 on: September 17, 2009, 12:42:41 AM »
« Edited: September 17, 2009, 12:48:20 AM by Alcon »

I am fine with this. I personally don't want McGinn elected simply because of the viaduct issue. We need to commit to one solution rather than go back on our word and try to start from scratch. Remember the monorail?

I agree.  It really makes me wish Mallahan came across as less of skeezedork.  I may be the only one who thinks this, but he may be even a less TV-friendly candidate than Gregoire.

***

I went to the Approve R-71 meeting tonight.  It was fun (for being full of old people) and they seem to have their resources together.  Their web site is crazy long, though.  Not that Reject R-71's web site is much better, and I'm amused that they still have a video up that loads in preview pane as saying "Support Referendum 71."  Also their signs are ugly/scary and kind of look like they say "Reject Marriage."

I tried to get the state coordinator to tell me what their internal polling showed but she wouldn't, other than saying the 2009 electorate is different from "all voters" and that voters responded best when the issue was framed in the macro (hospital visitation, end-of-life, etc.)  Not really news to us.  On the plus side, she liked my hat.

***

I wonder how annoyed Tim Eyman is at being ignored like this.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1178 on: September 17, 2009, 11:21:27 AM »

I wonder how annoyed Tim Eyman is at being ignored like this.

I fear that the lack of media attention will allow it to slip through. It's kind of silly because I-1033, if it passes, will have a far, far, far greater impact on this state then R-71 ever will, and of course that impact will be horrendously negative.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1179 on: September 17, 2009, 08:10:01 PM »



Marriage, hm...?
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Meeker
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« Reply #1180 on: September 17, 2009, 09:30:32 PM »


Well if that's the game they're going to play then we might as well have put marriage on the ballot.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1181 on: September 17, 2009, 09:39:59 PM »

Are you gonna "Reject Marriage = One man, One woman"?
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bgwah
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« Reply #1182 on: September 19, 2009, 04:47:02 PM »

BTW, "Gayrightsapalooza" is my favorite thread name so far. Tongue
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Meeker
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« Reply #1183 on: September 21, 2009, 11:39:21 PM »

Among the many gems in Reject R-71's voters' guide statement, my favorite:

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OH NOES! THE CHILDREN WILL BE CONFUSED!!!!11!!!
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Holmes
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« Reply #1184 on: September 22, 2009, 09:34:22 AM »

Oh, sh**t. They're not happy enough with us just letting them exist? Now they want people to respect them?
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Frodo
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« Reply #1185 on: September 22, 2009, 09:37:28 AM »

I wonder how annoyed Tim Eyman is at being ignored like this.

I fear that the lack of media attention will allow it to slip through. It's kind of silly because I-1033, if it passes, will have a far, far, far greater impact on this state then R-71 ever will, and of course that impact will be horrendously negative.

Speaking of I-1033, how is that faring in the polls right now? 
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Meeker
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« Reply #1186 on: September 22, 2009, 09:39:51 AM »

I wonder how annoyed Tim Eyman is at being ignored like this.

I fear that the lack of media attention will allow it to slip through. It's kind of silly because I-1033, if it passes, will have a far, far, far greater impact on this state then R-71 ever will, and of course that impact will be horrendously negative.

Speaking of I-1033, how is that faring in the polls right now? 

I don't know if I've seen a single poll on it. Alcon?
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Holmes
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« Reply #1187 on: September 22, 2009, 10:22:40 AM »



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If they keep running on marriage, and lose, won't it make it harder for them to seriously campaign against the real same-sex marriage bill?
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Meeker
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« Reply #1188 on: September 22, 2009, 11:12:31 AM »

I'm shocked by how homophobic they're making their campaign. I was expecting more of a "gay people are perfectly fine, it's just that they shouldn't have special status"-type thing and not "gay people aren't normal and will confuse your children".
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Badger
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« Reply #1189 on: September 22, 2009, 12:17:16 PM »

I'm shocked by how homophobic they're making their campaign. I was expecting more of a "gay people are perfectly fine, it's just that they shouldn't have special status"-type thing and not "gay people aren't normal and will confuse your children".
Its what's in the hearts of the activists running the campaign. They just can't help themselves.
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Alcon
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« Reply #1190 on: September 22, 2009, 01:40:09 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2009, 03:09:48 PM by Alcon »

I haven't seen any polls specifically on I-1033 or R-71, just the tracking question from 2007 (UW poll) that follows the general parameters of the latter.

I'll put my foot in the water to see what's going on on that.

Edit: Elway released a poll today, but only to subscribers (boo, I'll try harder).  Washington Poll says they'll get on it mid-October.  No idea who to contact about SUSA, but I guess that's KING-5's prerogative.
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Alcon
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« Reply #1191 on: September 22, 2009, 11:46:54 PM »

R-71 poll released by the Approve campaign (Washington Families Standing Together or whatever):

Approve 51%
Reject 44%
Undecided 5%

Reasons why this poll might be crap:
* Who is Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and what are they doing determining a 2009 likely voter in my state?
* 51% is nowhere near where this question shows up
* Them's there mighty convenient numbers for R-71 fundraising purposes.  Close, but a lead.

Reasons why it might not be:
* They actually specify the question asked, and it's the one on the ballot.
* Off-year voters are older and more conservative, blablablabla.
* We're calling Likely Democratic voters in King County, and let me tell ya, we're getting our share of strong opposition.

Your call.

Today's Elway has not leaked...yet.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #1192 on: September 23, 2009, 12:03:35 AM »

R-71 poll released by the Approve campaign (Washington Families Standing Together or whatever):

Approve 51%
Reject 44%
Undecided 5%

Reasons why this poll might be crap:
* Who is Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and what are they doing determining a 2009 likely voter in my state?
* 51% is nowhere near where this question shows up
* Them's there mighty convenient numbers for R-71 fundraising purposes.  Close, but a lead.

Reasons why it might not be:
* They actually specify the question asked, and it's the one on the ballot.
* Off-year voters are older and more conservative, blablablabla.
* We're calling Likely Democratic voters in King County, and let me tell ya, we're getting our share of strong opposition.

Your call.

Today's Elway has not leaked...yet.

I will be very disapointed in Washington if we manage to fail this. Though I feel like the equally big worry is I-1033 (which I feel is likelier to pass and could have a horrible impact on the state)...
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Verily
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« Reply #1193 on: September 23, 2009, 01:07:03 AM »
« Edited: September 23, 2009, 01:09:59 AM by Verily »

GQR is one of the major national Democratic pollsters. They usually do campaign internals for Democrats. I would "trust" their polling, except obviously they are an internal pollster and so this is probably not the only poll they've done for the Approve campaign. (Whether the other results are better or worse for R-71 is up for grabs since it definitely makes sense for the Approve R-71 campaigners to want a poll result that shows them ahead but in some danger.)
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Mechaman
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« Reply #1194 on: September 26, 2009, 01:17:16 AM »


Fixed
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Alcon
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« Reply #1195 on: September 29, 2009, 05:44:01 PM »
« Edited: September 29, 2009, 05:46:01 PM by Alcon »

Two polls out on I-1033 (Eyman's TABOR).  First, Rasmussen Reports on behalf of Eyman's campaign with the ballot title read.  The results:

Definitely Favor 21%
Probably Favor 40%
Probably Oppose 17%
Definitely Oppose 14%
Not Sure 8%

...which translates into 61-31, or 21-14, depending how you want to look at it.  The more obvious conclusion:  Swing voters have no idea what I-1033 is quite yet, but they like the general sound of it.  Eyman's been here before and failed, but it's not much time and it's been a low-profile issue.  He may make this one through.

The other is an Elway Poll:

Yes 46%
No 22%
Undecided 32%

Not much to say there -- pretty much an artificially greater push of leaners (to isolate pure undecideds) that results in about the same outcome.

Elway also finds that Referendum 71 is too close to call (sigh!!!):

Approve 46%
Disapprove 41%
Undecided 17%

...With 10 percent of voters being wrong-way, slightly hurting the Approve side more.  Among Most Likely voters the result was 48-40, intriguing.  As with many Elway polls, the subsamples (which are based on very small samples) are kind of whack.

Yet again:  Sigh.
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bgwah
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« Reply #1196 on: September 29, 2009, 05:46:07 PM »

Once people realize it's an Eyman initiative, the "definitely oppose" should shoot up to 35-40%!

Also, I will be very surpised if R71 doesn't pass by a large margin.
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ottermax
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« Reply #1197 on: September 29, 2009, 10:47:57 PM »

Once people realize it's an Eyman initiative, the "definitely oppose" should shoot up to 35-40%!

Also, I will be very surpised if R71 doesn't pass by a large margin.

Many people thought that Prop 8 would fail... but then look what happened.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1198 on: September 29, 2009, 10:53:37 PM »

Fuck direct democracy.
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bgwah
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« Reply #1199 on: September 29, 2009, 11:22:48 PM »

Once people realize it's an Eyman initiative, the "definitely oppose" should shoot up to 35-40%!

Also, I will be very surpised if R71 doesn't pass by a large margin.

Many people thought that Prop 8 would fail... but then look what happened.

1) I think Washington would've rejected Prop 8 had we voted on it.
2) This isn't gay marriage! It's not even civil unions. It's domestic-friggin-partnerships. Even Arizona was against such an extensive gay rights ban, and South Dakota almost was as well.
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