Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 836910 times)
Meeker
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« Reply #1100 on: August 21, 2009, 06:54:38 PM »

They also released an abstract by LD as of election night, which is kind-of, sort-of interesting. Some of these have probably changed, but whatever:

Hutchison won everything but the 34th, 36th, 37th, 43rd, and the 46th (all of which were won by Constantine). If you ignore Hutchison's votes Constantine won the 11th, 30th, 31st, 32nd, 33rd, 34th, 36th, 37th, 43rd, 46th and the 47th, Hunter the 1st, 45th and the 48th, Jarrett the 5th and the 41st, and Phillips the 39th (63 total votes in the LD).

Nickels won the 11th and the 37th, Mallahan the 34th and the 46th, and McGinn the 36th and the 43rd.
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BRTD
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« Reply #1101 on: August 21, 2009, 07:38:36 PM »

Woohoo! This was a nice surprise. I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE Nickels.

Good riddance you worthless sack of crap.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1102 on: August 21, 2009, 07:58:43 PM »

Woohoo! This was a nice surprise. I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE Nickels.

Good riddance you worthless sack of crap.

What did he do, outlaw strip clubs or ban emo concerts?
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Frodo
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« Reply #1103 on: August 21, 2009, 08:17:29 PM »

How much of a percentage of the vote will Mallahan likely get in the general election when he and McGinn face off again in November?  Is it safe to assume that Nickel's voters will vote for him?
-------------------------------

Can anyone answer these questions?
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bgwah
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« Reply #1104 on: August 21, 2009, 09:02:39 PM »

Woohoo! This was a nice surprise. I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE Nickels.

Good riddance you worthless sack of crap.

Nickels is one of the best Mayors on urban issues in the entire country.

His loss is a victory for suburb-lovers everywhere.
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BRTD
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« Reply #1105 on: August 21, 2009, 11:41:13 PM »

Woohoo! This was a nice surprise. I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE Nickels.

Good riddance you worthless sack of crap.

What did he do, outlaw strip clubs or ban emo concerts?

The former. Well he didn't outlaw them, but he tried to heavily restrict them and ban lapdances.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1106 on: August 22, 2009, 04:40:50 AM »

Nickels came third? What'd he do to become so unpopular?
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bgwah
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« Reply #1107 on: August 22, 2009, 04:45:53 AM »

Nickels came third? What'd he do to become so unpopular?

Seattle did the same thing in 2001: incumbent Mayor got third...

Quite frankly, Seattle is just a whiny complainer city. He's never been popular. Supposedly some are upset with how he handled the snow storm last winter.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1108 on: August 22, 2009, 04:50:55 AM »

Yeah, the mayor of Seattle ought to have enough clout in Olympia to ensure the city isn't allocated any snowstorms.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1109 on: August 22, 2009, 04:52:15 AM »

Nickels came third? What'd he do to become so unpopular?

Loss of a basketball team (not that he had any real control over that), a semi-bungled reaction to a snowstorm, a less than friendly personality. No real major reasons, just a sort of general feeling of unpleasantness towards him. Combine that with a legitimately impressive grassroots campaign from McGinn, a relentlessly-negative personally-financed campaign from Mallahan and a little bit of bad luck and you get the result we got. It's more a fluke then anything.

This isn't the first time Seattle's done this though - Nickels first got elected in 2001 when he and another fellow beat the incumbent mayor into third. That guy actually screwed up though.

EDIT: Basically what bgwah said.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1110 on: August 22, 2009, 04:56:04 AM »

I don't get the hating on McGinn in the last pages of this thread.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1111 on: August 22, 2009, 05:02:49 AM »

I don't get the hating on McGinn in the last pages of this thread.

I don't really dislike him that much. I think he's wrong on the viaduct and his plan for having the City of Seattle take control of Seattle schools would be a disaster (not that he'd ever get the votes on the council to do it), but I don't think he'd be horrible. I probably prefer him over Mallahan... although I'd prefer to keep Nickels between the three of them.

Bgwah seems to dislike him more, I'll let him to speak to his reasoning.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1112 on: August 22, 2009, 05:09:41 AM »

So, to an extent, this is an example of Seattle's civic culture? Interesting.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1113 on: August 22, 2009, 05:30:30 AM »

I don't really dislike him that much. I think he's wrong on the viaduct
If I understand this right they want to build another freeway through the city center. There are few things I'll oppose more unthinkingly, unflinchingly, than that. So me and McGinn are on one page on that. Grin
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Alcon
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« Reply #1114 on: August 22, 2009, 05:33:53 AM »
« Edited: August 22, 2009, 05:35:28 AM by Alcon »

No, Lewis, it's McGinn who supports the surface option.  Basically, he wants to tear down the Alaskan Way viaduct and replace it with...nothing.  It would redirect traffic through downtown.  It would screw up the Pike Place Market corridor.  His transit subsidies aren't going to convince West Seattle commuters to take the bus enough to avoid a debacle.  It's a really bad plan, and Mallahan is really kind of a grease-weasel, and I really wish that Nickels (even if I don't have fuzzy feelings for him) were still in the race.  Anyway, Mallahan supports a tunnel.

I'm with every word of Meeker's post, although I support Mallahan more over the viaduct issue.  I don't understand bgwah's personal animosity toward McGinn.  He seems like an amiable hippie on a bike, and viaduct issue notwithstanding, no ta dumb one.  Mallahan seems kind of smarmy to me and hearing his "on the issues" stuff during the campaign is borderline painful.  McGinn's campaign is a little bit of bad populism to me, but I don't think this is pitchfork-mob stuff.  I'd be all for it...but the viaduct is his "big issue."
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bgwah
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« Reply #1115 on: August 22, 2009, 05:39:11 AM »
« Edited: August 22, 2009, 05:41:10 AM by bgwah »

It took *eight years* to make a decision on the viaduct. And the right decision was made. But no, McGinn wants to change it. He would probably fail, but he may be able to drag it out for years.

Quite frankly, if that viaduct collapses because he dragged the process out longer than he should have, then I am 100% okay with putting him right on death row for mass murder. Because the people who die when that happens? The blood will be on McGinn. And if it happens during the day, he's going to be drenched. Seattle is really bad at this kind of thing. It's called the "Seattle process," everything is dragged out and prolonged. It takes *forever* to make a decision. Nickels was good at cutting through this. But McGinn? He epitomizes it... He is the Seattle process candidate. I hate the Seattle process. It must be destroyed. I don't want to risk having the viaduct rebuilt. Rebuilding the viaduct will destroy Downtown Seattle for generations!! The surface option is retarded and doesn't make sense, either. It would also threaten Pike Place Market. And you don't f**k with Pike Place Market!

Furthermore, Nickels was such a strong supporter of in-city growth. He raised height limits downtown, encouraged developments around transit stations, etc... On the other hand, McGinn is one of those annoying "slow growthers." And slow growth just means pushing the growth to the suburbs. He claims to be an environmentalist, but if he were really one then he would be in favor of getting as much of the population growth in the city as possible. Not cutting down forests for cookie-cutter subdivisions.

Nickels gave us results. He raised height limits downtown, he finally got our light rail network started, he had a great environmental record, he was getting rid of the viaduct... He was doing well on the issues important to me. And it upsets me to see him go.

Lewis--You're wrong on McGinn!! I fear his idiotic "surface option" may risk having the state just go ahead and build a viaduct. McGinn is definitely the best bet for rebuilding the viaduct.

McGinn is a populist virus and he must be exterminated!
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Frodo
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« Reply #1116 on: August 22, 2009, 10:47:31 AM »

Maybe third time's a charm:

How much of a percentage of the vote will Mallahan likely get in the general election when he and McGinn face off again in November?  Is it safe to assume that Nickel's voters will vote for him?
-------------------------------

And while I'm at it, does anyone have any idea who stands a better chance of becoming Seattle mayor this November -McGinn or Mallahan? 
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Alcon
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« Reply #1117 on: August 22, 2009, 01:26:32 PM »

Mallahan is probably favored although I still maintain he's bad on TV and that will hurt him.  It's way too early to make a prediction without seeing what issues the race forms around.  I don't think anyone's dodging your question, I just don't think anyone has that good of an answer.

And IIRC bgwah predicted like a ten-point race in this thread
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Meeker
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« Reply #1118 on: August 22, 2009, 07:42:20 PM »

Average age of a primary voter was 59.4

Not sure if that's above or below average for off-year primaries though.
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BRTD
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« Reply #1119 on: August 22, 2009, 08:22:09 PM »

How much of a role did strip clubs play in Nickels' defeat? Did any strip club owners give large donations to any of the candidates?
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Alcon
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« Reply #1120 on: August 22, 2009, 09:52:55 PM »

How much of a role did strip clubs play in Nickels' defeat? Did any strip club owners give large donations to any of the candidates?

It never came up during the campaign, wasn't even mentioned by the Stranger, and I doubt any candidate wants to accept donations from what may be the most corrupt political force in Seattle.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1121 on: August 25, 2009, 02:05:48 PM »

There's a rumor bubbling up today that State Senator Ed Murray is going to enter the Seattle Mayor's race as a write-in. Murray confirmed last night that he's been approached by labor leaders and others to do it. For those not close followers of Washington State politics, Murray is openly gay and is responsible for virtually every piece of gay rights legislation in Washington State history.

This would certainly make things, ah, interesting.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1122 on: August 25, 2009, 02:10:24 PM »

Wouldn't that just split the Lefty vote and elect Mallahan? Or is Murray hotdamn popular and might just push both people to the wall?
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Meeker
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« Reply #1123 on: August 25, 2009, 02:14:59 PM »

Wouldn't that just split the Lefty vote and elect Mallahan? Or is Murray hotdamn popular and might just push both people to the wall?

He's got more name recognition then either Mallahan or McGinn by a mile, and he'd have the heavy backing of the labor unions (all of which had been behind Nickels). I think you're right though that it'd much more heavily cut into McGinn's voting base.

It would also depend on the type of campaign he'd end up running. It could be a serious campaign about actually becoming mayor or it could be just about making a point for the grumpy Nickels supporters or it could be an extension of the R-71 fight and make it a whole gay rights thing. Murray is a gifted and powerful politician though, and he's being pushed into doing this, so I suspect it'd be a legitimate campaign.
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bgwah
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« Reply #1124 on: August 25, 2009, 03:13:08 PM »

Wouldn't that just split the Lefty vote and elect Mallahan? Or is Murray hotdamn popular and might just push both people to the wall?

He's got more name recognition then either Mallahan or McGinn by a mile, and he'd have the heavy backing of the labor unions (all of which had been behind Nickels). I think you're right though that it'd much more heavily cut into McGinn's voting base.

It would also depend on the type of campaign he'd end up running. It could be a serious campaign about actually becoming mayor or it could be just about making a point for the grumpy Nickels supporters or it could be an extension of the R-71 fight and make it a whole gay rights thing. Murray is a gifted and powerful politician though, and he's being pushed into doing this, so I suspect it'd be a legitimate campaign.

I would have to learn more about Murray's position on urban issues like the tunnel, but I like his work in the state legislature.

I was always under the impression that Murray was just waiting for McDermott's seat, though...
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