Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Meeker]

Can anyone explain the differences in policy positions between the various King County Executive candidates? 

There really isn't much of any to be quite honest (at least amongst the four Democrats).

Here's a link to the King County voters' pamphlet though: http://www.kingcounty.gov/elections/elections/200908/contestscandidates.aspx

[Alcon]

Despite the uptick today, R-71 has yet to shown any evidence that the (apparently randomly-assembled) binders are returning rejection rates with enough unpredicted trending to justify not looking at it from a randomized model that assesses duplicatin rates.  And such a model currently has it making the ballot 9,989 of 10,000 times a simulation is run.

And now I'll shut the hell up about the statistics crap until that changes .

[CultureKing]

Going back to that SUSA poll, I found it interesting that Obama has higher approvals among "moderates" than liberals. While there are a significant number of liberals who dissaprove of him I can't imagine them voting for a Republican in the next presidential election.

[Meeker]

Place yer bets on the races of yer choosing...

King County Executive: Hutchison, Constantine, Jarrett, Phillips, Hunter, crazies

Seattle Mayor: Nickels, Mallahan, McGinn, Drago, Donaldson, crazies (I have a feeling Drago may do better than we think though...)

Bag Tax: Fails badly

Tacoma City Council, District 4: Campbell, Murphy, Marten

Tacoma City Council, District 5: Summers Kirby, Lonergan, Miles (Miles may surprise us though and wouldn't be shocked to see either Summers Kirby or Lonergan not make it. I would laugh endlessly if Summers Kirby didn't make it. She tries so hard.)

Tacoma School District, Position 2: Ushka-Hall, Van Vechten, Rickman, Bates, Thorpe, Blakeslee (Although Rickman and maybe even Bates could make it... I just don't really know about that second slot.)

University Place City Council, Position 1: Bird, Figueroa, Carnrite (The most interesting number here will be the combined Figueroa and Carnrite total)

Lakewood City Council, Position 2: Brandstetter, Coleman Lacadie, Wilhelmsen

Puyallup City Council, District 1: Dill, Aho, Weltzer

Puyallup City Council, District 2: Hansen, Taylor, Workman (Taylor could surprise us...)

Puyallup City Council, District 3: Boyle, Alexander, Tebao


I'm violating my rule that no one should ever try to predict non-partisan races, but what the hell.

[Alcon]

King County Executive: Hutchison, Constantine, Jarrett, Phillips, Hunter, crazies

Yeah.  I think the interesting question is what percentage Hutchison manages.  I'd say her over/under for standing a chance in November is 40%.  That's stupid to predict in a primary but whatever.

Seattle Mayor: Nickels, Mallahan, McGinn, Drago, Donaldson, crazies (I have a feeling Drago may do better than we think though...)

Agreed.  I think McGinn may also do worse than he's polling.  Other possible freak-outs: Mallahan's high support among geezers gives Nickels a run for his money, McGinn's people don't turn out and Drago gets close to him (unlikely after the Stranger endorsement IMHO)

I look forward to Donaldson's amusingly strong performance around Garfield High School in the Central District.

Bag Tax: Fails badly

Part of me thinks low turnout is good for this thing...but my over/under is still definitely well within double digit failure.

Tacoma City Council, District 4: Campbell, Murphy, Marten

Yes (speaking of people who try really hard)

Tacoma City Council, District 5: Summers Kirby, Lonergan, Miles (Miles may surprise us though and wouldn't be shocked to see either Summers Kirby or Lonergan not make it. I would laugh endlessly if Summers Kirby didn't make it. She tries so hard.)

I could see this race being very, very close.  All three candidates have strong appeals to groups that are about 1/3 of the electorate.  Miles is unquestionably the biggest question mark.  He could be a distant third, but then again he could even win.  I think the former is more likely.

Tacoma School District, Position 2: Ushka-Hall, Van Vechten, Rickman, Bates, Thorpe, Blakeslee (Although Rickman and maybe even Bates could make it... I just don't really know about that second slot.)

Agreed.  I think Bates has a lot going for her (TNT, really personable television appearance) but I think on paper, she appeals to Ushka-Hall voters too much, and she lacks any campaign presence.  Rickman does too (lol) but she's an incumbent.  I wonder if she even realizes that she's in totally deep sh**t?  The Bates/Ushka-Hall split would normally put Van Vechten in first for me, but he's young and primary voters might not take him seriously for that.

Thorpe and Blakeslee are such hopeless candidates that the order there may switch depending on what the ballot statements are like.  "Former teacher" vs. "PTA lady" probably goes "former teacher," even if his ideas are older than sand.

The rest, I have no idea.  Who cares about Puyallup?

[Alcon]

SurveyUSA squeezes out one last poll.  The mayor's race continues to look fairly competitive:

Nickels 26% (+4)
Mallahan 22% (+3)
McGinn 21% (+6)
Donaldson 7% (-4)
Drago 7% (nc)
Campbell 3% (nc)
Garrett 2% (-1)
Sigler 2% (+1)
Undecided 20% (-9)

My guess is that Norman Sigler's late-term surge (100% support increase!) is because the voters have discovered that his middle name is apparently Zadok.  Awesome.

Among early voters, the race is even more competitive.  Nickels (27%), Mallahan (25%) and McGinn (23%) are all within MoE of each other.  I would now put the odds of a Mallahan upset at about 1-in-3.

The Bag Tax continues to look dead in the water, although maybe not as dead as a week ago:

Yes 45% (+2)
No 52% (-2)
Undecided 3%

Oddly, despite a huge split by education level (college grads support 53-43 while non-grads oppose 26-72), this is doing worse among those who claim to have voted already: it's down 42-55.  Likely voters with uncast ballots oppose by only 47-49.  That's the power of seniors without college degrees, and exactly why this was dumb to put on a primary ballot.

No Exec poll, for whatever reason.

Last night, Pierce County turnout stood at 15.8%, King County at 16.7%, and Seattle at 17.4%.  There was a small line at my polling place, which is weird but probably just a coincidence.

[Meeker]

There was one other guy at my place. The poll workers also seemed to be very confused as to why I was there.

[Meeker]

News Tribune blog with some fun narrative teasers:

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I literally began laughing out loud at the suggestion that Rickman has a strategy.

[bgwah]

I can't wait for the bag tax map! Should serve as a good guide for what areas need to be cut out of the city.

[Хahar 🤔]

Why are you making school board predictions? Do you really need elections that badly?

[Meeker]

Why are you making school board predictions? Do you really need elections that badly?

I don't have a problem. I can handle it.

[Meeker]

I almost forgot that there are top-two primaries in the 9th, 15th and 16th Legislative Districts today as well.

9th - Fagan or Hailey (wife of deceased Rep. Steve Hailey) will make it, along with Stockwell I suppose. There's a core 30% of Democrats in this district that will make sure a GOP vs. GOP general doesn't happen.

15th - I'm guessing the guy who didn't submit a voters' pamphlet statement won't be moving on.

16th - Grant and Nealey will face off in November, and I'm guessing Nealey will have better luck against this Grant.

[bgwah]

Why are you making school board predictions? Do you really need elections that badly?

lol

Seattle and King County actually have some really interesting races, in my opinion... ~1.5 hours until the first results come in!

I realize Constantine has this in the bag, but I voted for Ross Hunter because I like him best. Hopefully Hunter or Jarrett will get the message and run for f**king Congress, though.

As for the general, I personally don't see how Hutchison can win. The Democrats will unite behind Constantine and he'll at worst get somewhere in the mid-50s. This is King County after all, and even with a well-known local celebrity pretending to be an independent, an Idaho-esque candidate isn't going to win here.

I'm thinking Nickels and Mallahan will move onto the general in Seattle, but I wouldn't be surprised if McGinn got the #2 spot. I think Mallahan would probably have a floor in the mid-40s, simply being from being the generic anti-Nickels candidate (and that's all he is). Nickels would probably have a better chance against McGinn, as I suspect McGinn is too much of a lefty to do well among the more conservative and Republican voters in Seattle, who make up ~15-20% of the electorate (more than enough to swing the election).

[Alcon]

Polls are closed.  Should be 15-30 minutes before we get the first results.

I'm guessing no one cares about anything but King and Pierce, and if you do too bad because I don't!

[Meeker]

Polls are closed.  Should be 15-30 minutes before we get the first results.

I'm guessing no one cares about anything but King and Pierce, and if you do too bad because I don't!

That sound you hear is thousands of Walla Wallans crying.

[Meeker]

Hutchison vs. Constantine it is...

OMG SEATTLE MAYOR !!!11!!!!!

[Alcon]

Hutchison 37%
Constantine 22%
Jarrett 12%
Phillips 12%
Hunter 11%

Woah:

McGinn 27%
Mallahan 26%
Nickels 25%
Donaldson 9%
Drago 8%

Mike O'Brien leads along with all of the incumbents.

Bag tax is failing 42-58.  I'm glad I predicted it to do a little worse than expected now even if I expect that to close.

[Meeker]

He's in third! He could actually not even make it out of the primary!

Who wins a Mallahan vs. McGinn general?

[Alcon]

He's in third! He could actually not even make it out of the primary!

Who wins a Mallahan vs. McGinn general?

I'm inclined to say Mallahan...although that would be a weird race, it's like Old People/Business Types vs. Greens.  Except McGinn does have his weird suburban-Republican oriented viaduct position.

Pierce County took forever in 2008, right?

Note: Early votes tend to be loaded old + partisan Democrat.  I don't know what significance that has here, other than that I think Bag Tax will narrow.

[Meeker]

He's in third! He could actually not even make it out of the primary!

Who wins a Mallahan vs. McGinn general?

I'm inclined to say Mallahan...although that would be a weird race, it's like Old People/Business Types vs. Greens.  Except McGinn does have his weird suburban-Republican oriented viaduct position.

Pierce County took forever in 2008, right?

In the general because they had to deal with RCV they were way late, but they should be relatively on time tonight.

[Alcon]

While we're waiting on Pierce and King County's 10 PM batch...uh...

Burien will be annexing a chunk of Highline/White Center.  That's passing 59-41.  One of the biggest annexations in a few decades.

And in Walla Walla news...

[Meeker]

I retract my statement about there not being the possibility of a GOP vs. GOP general in the 9th... and the guy without a voters' pamphlet not making the general.

It really worries me how people vote for candidates that are clearly insane.

[Meeker]

JERRY THORPE WTF?!

[Meeker]

I almost think the Thorpe thing has to be a mistake. I mean seriously... what. the. fuck?

[Alcon]

I know the primary trends old but his platform was BRINGING BACK CURSIVE

wtf.

And I thought that race would be a tough decision

asfsdfda