Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 837137 times)
Alcon
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« Reply #1000 on: July 24, 2009, 02:52:07 PM »

Gary Randall says that Referendum 71 is "too close to call" (read: totally screwed)

http://referendum71.blogspot.com/2009/07/r-71-too-close-to-call.html

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Meeker
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« Reply #1001 on: July 24, 2009, 03:01:17 PM »

The more I've thought about it though I think a crushing defeat for them could help spur the legislature into actually passing marriage equality...

I guess I'm still hoping it won't get on the ballot though.
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Alcon
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« Reply #1002 on: July 24, 2009, 03:14:43 PM »
« Edited: July 24, 2009, 03:16:15 PM by Alcon »

The more I've thought about it though I think a crushing defeat for them could help spur the legislature into actually passing marriage equality...

I guess I'm still hoping it won't get on the ballot though.

I'm of two minds.  I think results would be fascinating on one hand, but on the other hand, I do enjoy watching the Washington Christian right fall on their collective ass on this one.  But I also think the conventional wisdom is that this would be close, when I think it would probably fail pretty handily.  That would be good p.r. for the marriage equality side, I agree.  So I actually do want it on the ballot, although that's still mostly to see the results Tongue.

I'm a little worried that public support for gay marriage is going to stall in the upper 40's.  Also, an off-year General Election may not be the best time to get it on the ballot because youth turnout will suck.  I'd love to be the first state to have it stand up to a public vote; I really, really do not want to see it lose narrowly, as I suspect it would today.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1003 on: July 25, 2009, 11:37:40 AM »

Washington's same-sex couples have nothing to gain from a vote, they can only lose what they should have.

Fraud: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47u2m4hH0SQ

I love how the woman at the beginning says she supports same-sex marriage, and gets fooled into signing. :/
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Alcon
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« Reply #1004 on: July 25, 2009, 02:20:55 PM »
« Edited: July 25, 2009, 02:30:19 PM by Alcon »

Washington's same-sex couples have nothing to gain from a vote, they can only lose what they should have.

Sure they do.  A massive electoral victory that polls indicate would inevitably occur.  It wouldn't necessarily increase the number of their rights, but it would make the state legislature a little less queasy about the potential of passing marriage equality in the future -- although I hope they don't jump the gun.  That would find its way onto the ballot and actually be competitive.

Anyway, a few hours and we may have a better idea of whether this is all moot anyway Tongue  I suspect it will be.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1005 on: July 25, 2009, 05:42:57 PM »
« Edited: July 25, 2009, 05:45:32 PM by Holmes »

Mmm... I don't know. I don't doubt we can win at the polls, but I just don't think it would help get same-sex marriage through the legislature. What would be better instead, would be for Democrats to perform well in the 2010 elections, because I don't think the legislature would want to pass a same-sex marriage bill in 2010, during an election year, even if the domestic partnership hypothetically does well in the polls.

By the way, I'm not familiar with Washington referendum law - will we ever get the number of signatures?
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Alcon
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« Reply #1006 on: July 25, 2009, 06:31:53 PM »
« Edited: July 25, 2009, 06:37:22 PM by Alcon »

I think they take a random sample, see if the random sample's invalidation rate justifies checking all the signatures, and count them if not.

Faith and Freedom Network claims they delivered 135,000 signatures with another few still coming.  That's more than the requirements, but they really needed 150,000.  Randall looked pretty beaten and said that an initiative might be next.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1007 on: July 25, 2009, 11:29:38 PM »

Brian Sonntag endorsed Susan Hutchison. Ewwww
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Meeker
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« Reply #1008 on: July 26, 2009, 08:44:38 PM »

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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #1009 on: July 27, 2009, 12:32:27 AM »

Last night I had a dream that I was trying to get to my polling place in dark-fictional-unfamiliar-dream-Tacoma.  I missed a bus and had to run there and got there like 2 minutes too late.  I was a little distraught until the pollworker told me that there was nothing on the ballot.  Literally.  It was a completely blank piece of paper.

I agree with my subconscious.

Why in the hell are there 25 pages about it?
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Meeker
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« Reply #1010 on: July 27, 2009, 03:28:28 AM »

Last night I had a dream that I was trying to get to my polling place in dark-fictional-unfamiliar-dream-Tacoma.  I missed a bus and had to run there and got there like 2 minutes too late.  I was a little distraught until the pollworker told me that there was nothing on the ballot.  Literally.  It was a completely blank piece of paper.

I agree with my subconscious.

Why in the hell are there 25 pages about it?

Imagine what it would be like if there was meaning to the primary.

The primaries for King County Executive and Seattle Mayor should actually be relatively interesting (especially the former if people are smart enough to vote in a way that makes the maps cool).

Will Alcon vote for über union hack Beckie Summers Kirby WHO IS IN THE POCKETS OF THE UNIONS? Readers want to know.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1011 on: July 27, 2009, 04:33:24 AM »

Last night I had a dream that I was trying to get to my polling place in dark-fictional-unfamiliar-dream-Tacoma.  I missed a bus and had to run there and got there like 2 minutes too late.  I was a little distraught until the pollworker told me that there was nothing on the ballot.  Literally.  It was a completely blank piece of paper.

I agree with my subconscious.

Why in the hell are there 25 pages about it?

Imagine what it would be like if there was meaning to the primary.

The primaries for King County Executive and Seattle Mayor should actually be relatively interesting (especially the former if people are smart enough to vote in a way that makes the maps cool).

Will Alcon vote for über union hack Beckie Summers Kirby WHO IS IN THE POCKETS OF THE UNIONS? Readers want to know.

District 5?  You think I live in District 5?  You are dead to me.

(Not dead enough that I probably won't ask you for help on several votes.  But a lot deader than you were before.)

District 2 is full of sodomizers and arsenic. But that's probably how you like it, you sick freak.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1012 on: July 27, 2009, 01:56:21 PM »

Port of Tacoma -- Commissioner No. 1
I guess Connie Bacon, because no one else seems qualified.  I don't really like the job Bacon's done.  I think she's part of the Commission's problem, which is ignoring practical and monetary details in Port operations while chasing "big-picture" projects like green jobs.  I don't have a problem with chasing "green jobs," but when they aren't competent on the current concrete stuff, it's hard to be optimistic.  Anyway, Bill Casper seems fixated on port security issues that are beyond the Commission's scope, and Bernardo Tuma seems to run for offices without knowing anything about them.  I wonder which downtown restaurant he owns.  They never say.

Yup.

Tacoma School District No. 10 Director Pos. 2
In order of my likelihood to vote:

Chris Van Vechten -- I like his energy and I like his willingness to propose unconventional ideas.  I'm a little worried that he may have Sacred Cows.  It's hard to tell whether his ideas are borne out of analytical mindedness or youthful exuberance.  It's a dice roll, but I like the guy.  (Even if it's lame that he washed the Internet of his grandparent-horrifying YouTube monologues!  boo!)

Catherine Ushka-Hall -- Seems interesting and competent.  Strikes a good balance between service on do-gooder boards and practicality.  Nice, too.  Don't get the sense she'd shake things up as much as I want, but on the other hand she's completely guaranteed to be better than the incumbent.

Amy Bates -- The TNT people really liked her, but I didn't get a sense of what makes her better than Ushka-Hall.  They both seem well-rounded, results-oriented but with a foot planted in minority/poverty issues, too.  Never met her, maybe it's something unquantifiable.  Wouldn't mind if she advanced past the primary but I have my doubts she will.

Jerry Thorpe -- Competent old guy.  I think there are equally competent candidates who are more energetic.

Deb Blakeslee -- Seems like a well-intentioned but unqualified do-gooder who stands no chance of making it past a primary.

Connie Rickman -- The online version of the TNT article ends the bit about Rickman with "Voters have better choices this year.", and then goes on to talk about the other candidates.  The print version uses a colon instead.  The print version is right.  I mean:  "When asked what lessons the school board might have learned from the Millligan experience, [Rickman] attributed the former superintendent’s problems to misinformation spread by reporters and community misperceptions."  Lol.

I'll be voting for him in the primary as well, but I may switch over to Ushka-Hall in the general. I'm very curious to see the results for this one.

Fire Protection District No. 3 - University Place FD, Props. 1 & 2
No.  University Place should be burned down.  These propositions try to stop that from happening!  Easy vote.

Sad
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bgwah
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« Reply #1013 on: July 27, 2009, 02:52:03 PM »

Seattle and King County are both going to have really interesting primaries.

I'm still undecided on King County Executive. Unsure
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Alcon
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« Reply #1014 on: July 27, 2009, 03:43:46 PM »

Is anyone interested in maps for King County Exec and Seattle Mayor (and whatever else)?  If so, I can set up ArcExplorer.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1015 on: July 27, 2009, 03:47:38 PM »

I fear it'll just turn into non-partisan boring jumble with no candidate differing more than a few percentage points in each precinct from their county-wide average, but if it turns out to be interesting then a map would be wonderful.
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bgwah
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« Reply #1016 on: July 27, 2009, 04:50:49 PM »

Yes, of course.

I suspect the Democrats will split the vote enough in King County to let Hutchison win most precincts, though a Democrats-only primary map would be very interesting. All four of them have their own "home districts" that they would at least do well in, I imagine.
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Alcon
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« Reply #1017 on: July 28, 2009, 03:15:51 PM »

I also think the Seattle Bag Tax map could be interesting.
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Alcon
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« Reply #1018 on: July 28, 2009, 11:50:48 PM »

Wednesday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 104. North wind between 3 and 7 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 71. North wind between 5 and 8 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 102. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph.

^^ We are all going to die.
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ottermax
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« Reply #1019 on: July 29, 2009, 12:26:47 AM »

Wednesday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 104. North wind between 3 and 7 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 71. North wind between 5 and 8 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 102. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph.

^^ We are all going to die.

I agree. I though I lived in Western Washington, not Texas.
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bgwah
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« Reply #1020 on: July 30, 2009, 03:04:53 AM »

I was looking through the voter's pamphlet. HUTCHISON LIKES TO USE CAPS LOCK.

Anyone else think it's interesting that Republicans didn't think a U.S. Senator was qualified to be President, but that some newscaster is qualified to run a county of nearly two million people?

It's looking like Constantine will get the second spot in the general, I think. Though I like that Ross Hunter mentioned transit-oriented development in the pamphlet, so I might have to vote for him. Smiley
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Holmes
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« Reply #1021 on: July 30, 2009, 12:14:21 PM »

I thought you guys might find this interesting.

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http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2009559521_webref17names30m.html

Although if it was any other kind of petition, the signature gatherers wouldn't be in court trying to prevent what's required by law...
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Alcon
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« Reply #1022 on: August 03, 2009, 09:46:26 PM »
« Edited: August 03, 2009, 09:55:06 PM by Alcon »

R-71 needed a signature error rate under 14%.  So far the error rate is 12.31% after 11,502 signatures checked.  That is beyond the margin of error.  Caveats are that the number of duplicates probably increases later on, so if they are not checking randomly, later signatures could be reasonably expected to validate at higher rejection rates.

Even with the most liberal of caveats, chances are now good that this thing is making the ballot.  Which I am now upset by.  Grass is always greener.

Edit: Or maybe not, but I don't have time to read that, now.
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Alcon
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« Reply #1023 on: August 05, 2009, 03:55:41 AM »
« Edited: August 05, 2009, 04:09:18 AM by Alcon »

News...Reject rate on R-71 is up.  The SoS's office asserts that the rejection rate needs to be a maximum of 14.2%.  This math, reported by the mainstream media, is not correct.  They are dividing the total number of signatures by the maximum needed.  Referendum 71 has 14.2% "extra" signatures; however, they need an error rate of 12.4% and the Referendum appears headed to miss the ballot.

http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/080409.pdf

Washington Poll findings for favorability:

Obama - 87-12 (+75)
Gregoire - 78-21 (+57)
Nickels - 40-50 (-10)
Drago - 28-24 (+4)
Donaldson - 19-7 (+12)
McGinn - 20-8 (+12)
Mallahan - 21-3 (+18)

Nickels 23%
Mallahan 11%
Donaldson 10%
Drago 9%
McGinn 9%
Undecided 37%

Bag tax:

Yes 41%
No 55%

Run-off results:

Nickels 36%
Drago 33%

Nickels 33%
Donaldson 40%

Caveat: Small poll.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1024 on: August 05, 2009, 04:22:09 AM »
« Edited: August 05, 2009, 04:24:29 AM by Meeker »

The idiocy of the MSM regarding the error rate is really quite remarkable. I thought it couldn't get worse than two years ago when they declared 4204 dead only to realize that two weeks later it was obviously going to pass, but I guess I was wrong.

Oh and I'm more likely to have a vagina than Gregoire is to have a 78% favorability rating.
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