Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 837232 times)
CultureKing
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« Reply #975 on: June 12, 2009, 06:20:14 PM »

It's alright I suppose. I wish we had 2010 numbers to play with!

Here's a 9 district map I made yesterday:



Ewww... Somehow I end up in a district that attaches to the tri-cities eventhough I live in Olympia.

Is this a Gerrymander map or simply using every mountain pass you can to attach areas?
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bgwah
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« Reply #976 on: June 12, 2009, 06:24:05 PM »

It's a Democratic gerrymander, of course. It's intended to have 8 Democrats and 1 Republican (in the red district).
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Alcon
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« Reply #977 on: June 15, 2009, 03:11:11 AM »

CK -- Cool map.  Aesthetically pleasing, too.

Baird could hold that district in a walk, but it would be extremely competitive.  Hard to tell how much of Yakima you put in, but Obama actually narrowly won the 15th LD -- South Yakima is a competitive area because of the Hispanic and Native population, and the Clark County portion is the only bedrock GOP area.  If you take Yakima City without its suburbs, you've still got an easy Baird victory.  The dude racks it up in even Lewis County -- he'd manage.

I like your setup around the Sound.  It makes the 8th actually cohesive, and gets rid of exurban Pierce hickland to the 9th (which is a lost cause for cohesive anyway).  On the other hand, I think its biggest weakness is the 6th -- Vashon+Tacoma+Centralia, now there's a district.

Kind of hard to tell without a zoom-in around Lake Washington (Yakima would be nice too), but Reichert would probably be the last GOP congressman from the 8th unless things turn around.

Also, you put Dicks and Inslee in the same district.  Not sure if that's fixable.  Although Inslee does have a record or not minding moves, and who wants to live in Belfair anyway? Tongue
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Alcon
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« Reply #978 on: June 18, 2009, 01:00:21 AM »

Chris Hurst won't run for WA-8, denies that Suzan DelBene is a "Darcy Burner" trainwreck, and clearly wants someone else anyway.

McDermott starts a Public Works employment project for the completely guano batsh**t.

Referendum 71 is now one percent more screwed.

Goldy should really stop "analyzing" poll numbers and go back to talking about seltzer or whatever.

On the other side of the fence, why has Sound Politics turned into just being sporadic posts about Shawna Forde?  Why (now that she's apparently shot people) are they blogging about Shawna Forde at all?
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #979 on: June 18, 2009, 06:31:36 AM »

Gee, I can't believe I'm on top of the Krist Novoselic story before you guys. He's dropped out:

http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2009/06/former_nirvana_bassist_now_for.html
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Alcon
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« Reply #980 on: June 24, 2009, 07:25:03 PM »
« Edited: June 24, 2009, 07:28:33 PM by Alcon »

Uh, huh:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=24aea2b0-ebf6-4c88-bcc8-0d8f5f8bc1b0

Hutchison 41%
Constantine 12%
Phillips 7%
Hunter 6%
Jarrett 4%
Goodspaceguy 3%
Lippmann 2%
Lobdell 2%
Undecided 23%

Way to go on this one, King County Democrats.

In other news: Will anyone really miss Kent?
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Meeker
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« Reply #981 on: June 24, 2009, 08:32:45 PM »

Eh, they'll rally behind whomever comes in second. It's the highest profile race in the state this year (except maybe Seattle Mayor) so it's not like Hutchison is going to be able to sneak in under the radar.
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bgwah
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« Reply #982 on: June 24, 2009, 11:42:47 PM »

Uh, huh:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=24aea2b0-ebf6-4c88-bcc8-0d8f5f8bc1b0

Hutchison 41%
Constantine 12%
Phillips 7%
Hunter 6%
Jarrett 4%
Goodspaceguy 3%
Lippmann 2%
Lobdell 2%
Undecided 23%

Way to go on this one, King County Democrats.

In other news: Will anyone really miss Kent?

That is incredibly disturbing.

I still haven't decided who I will vote for in the primary, though I suspect it will be one of the Eastsiders.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #983 on: June 26, 2009, 12:13:12 AM »

My prediction is that Hutchison will win the primary with flying colors and then she will lose badly in the general election.  Name recognition is a powerful advantage, particularly in a multi-candidate field.  Having multiple candidates in the race gives her more cover to duck specific questions about her record, which is what she has been doing.  She has only shown up to one or two candidate forums and appears to be running scared.

In the general election, there won't be anywhere to hide.

As an aside, the KC Executive race is illustrative of why I think the decision to make county races "nonpartisan" was a sham. 
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Meeker
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« Reply #984 on: June 26, 2009, 12:14:52 AM »

My prediction is that Hutchison will win the primary with flying colors and then she will lose badly in the general election.  Name recognition is a powerful advantage, particularly in a multi-candidate field.  Having multiple candidates in the race gives her more cover to duck specific questions about her record, which is what she has been doing.  She has only shown up to one or two candidate forums and appears to be running scared.

In the general election, there won't be anywhere to hide.

As an aside, the KC Executive race is illustrative of why I think the decision to make county races "nonpartisan" was a sham. 

^^^

All it does is reduce information given to voters; it does nothing to reduce partisanship.
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ottermax
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« Reply #985 on: June 26, 2009, 01:41:38 AM »

Well, I do know that people who would normally vote only for a Democrat like my mother, would probably vote for the person with the most name recognition, even if she does her research. Of course we live in Fred Jarrett's district and we don't watch KIRO (is that her station?), so I'm guessing name recognition won't help in our house.

It'll be interesting to see what happens as we get much closer to the election date.
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bgwah
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« Reply #986 on: June 26, 2009, 01:55:03 AM »

I really have no idea who to support.

I'll probably go with the most pro-transit, anti-sprawl, pro-density environmentalist candidate. I just haven't determined who that is yet... Smiley
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bgwah
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« Reply #987 on: June 26, 2009, 04:56:48 PM »

Seattle poll:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9b5e3974-aa50-4f8f-a325-b1109b0e187a

Mayor
24% Nickels
15% Drago
14% Donaldson

Bag Tax
47% Yes
46% No

I'm rooting for Nickels at the moment... In other interesting news, 12% of Seattleites consider themselves Republicans. GTFO, plz. Smiley
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CultureKing
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« Reply #988 on: July 11, 2009, 09:05:57 PM »

So... when is the King county executive primary?
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Meeker
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« Reply #989 on: July 11, 2009, 09:08:14 PM »

So... when is the King county executive primary?

August 18th. Ballots are mailed July 29th.
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Meeker
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« Reply #990 on: July 15, 2009, 02:21:15 PM »

Washington hasn't elected a Democrat Secretary of State since 1960. Weird...
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bgwah
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« Reply #991 on: July 15, 2009, 02:25:36 PM »

Washington hasn't elected a Democrat Secretary of State since 1960. Weird...

Are you looking at those pages I made on the Wiki?

Well, we haven't elected a Republican State Auditor since 1928... so we win.
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Meeker
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« Reply #992 on: July 15, 2009, 02:31:55 PM »

Are you looking at those pages I made on the Wiki?

No, just Sam Reed's website. Apparently the guy before Ralph Munro runs the Discovery Institute now Sad

Well, we haven't elected a Republican State Auditor since 1928... so we win.

Cheesy
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RI
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« Reply #993 on: July 15, 2009, 03:13:01 PM »

Does anyone know the current status of Ref. 71's sig gathering quest?
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Holmes
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« Reply #994 on: July 15, 2009, 04:25:23 PM »

Yes, they claimed a few days ago that they have 75k. I don't believe that though.

Although they've been claiming that this is a same-sex marriage bill, priests will go to jail etc etc.
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Alcon
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« Reply #995 on: July 16, 2009, 05:57:15 PM »
« Edited: July 16, 2009, 05:59:33 PM by Alcon »

Does anyone know the current status of Ref. 71's sig gathering quest?

They're either scrambling or doing just dandy, depending on how much you trust Gary Randall's report of drastically increased sign rates.

They claimed to have 75,000 signatures on July 11th.  They also claim to be receiving 8,000 a day, which seems a little unlikely if they've only managed 75k so far.  They need about 120,000 signatures by July 25th to qualify.  At 8,000 a day, they'd have 179,000 by the 25th.  More specifically, they'd need a little bit under 3,500 per day to qualify.

I tend to suspect that they're liar faces, although a >129% overstatement would be an impressive lie.  Reports are that they're peddling the whole thing as pro-gay rights (since it will be on the ballot, technically) and getting signatures on Queen Anne Hill.  Who knows, though.

Eyman's latest initiative is on the ballot for sure, by the way.  No one else is trying.  I can't remember the last time we had so little initiative activity in a General election.
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Alcon
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« Reply #996 on: July 20, 2009, 05:38:01 PM »

R-71 petitioners say they'll submit signatures on Saturday.  Won't say how many they have now.  They've heavily been hitting up church congregations and -- Meeker totally called it -- Wal-Mart.

Also, for anyone in the Tacoma/University Place area, MISSED OPPORTUNITY.  And he was wearing camo, too Sad
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Holmes
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« Reply #997 on: July 20, 2009, 05:39:00 PM »

I'm willing to wager anyone that they don't even have enough. This was all a ploy to get some money into Gary Randall's pockets.
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Meeker
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« Reply #998 on: July 20, 2009, 06:27:27 PM »

R-71 petitioners say they'll submit signatures on Saturday.  Won't say how many they have now.  They've heavily been hitting up church congregations and -- Meeker totally called it -- Wal-Mart.

Also, for anyone in the Tacoma/University Place area, MISSED OPPORTUNITY.  And he was wearing camo, too Sad

Don't worry, he's coming back: http://seattle.craigslist.org/tac/pol/1280199122.html
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Alcon
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« Reply #999 on: July 20, 2009, 07:46:10 PM »

R-71 petitioners say they'll submit signatures on Saturday.  Won't say how many they have now.  They've heavily been hitting up church congregations and -- Meeker totally called it -- Wal-Mart.

Also, for anyone in the Tacoma/University Place area, MISSED OPPORTUNITY.  And he was wearing camo, too Sad

Don't worry, he's coming back: http://seattle.craigslist.org/tac/pol/1280199122.html

And apparently won't be changing his pants.

Or maybe his closet is full of them.
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