Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Alcon]

Issues? What are those? This is Tacoma Democratic politics: egos, money and unions!

I think that's Strickland's greatest risk.  She's never gotten "in" with the unions in town, from what I gather.  That having been said, attacking her on that won't be easy.  She's probably acceptable on all union issues.  If she had an Achilles' heel, it would be some grassroots "the teachers don't like her!" campaign.  That works great in Tacoma, appealing both to union people and North Tacoma bleeding-hearts.

Still, seems unlikely, and unless the race gets mean in an unpredictable way, I think she's probably in.

This is predictable, but as bad as expected: King County has a $50 million deficit.  (That's actually not as bad as a lot of urban counties.)

[Lunar]

Washington?

I forgot I posted that at 3:50 am.  Classic Lunar.

[Alcon]

Washington?

I forgot I posted that at 3:50 am.  Classic Lunar.

I'm happy that your crap state has apparently removed its fat self from our time zone

[CultureKing]

Budget modification came out. Basically the state now has to cut hundreds of millions more than previously thought (this is the second or third time new numbers have come in and each time has shown revenues to get worse each time).

[bgwah]

^ It's only get to get worse in this dumb sales-tax-only state...

[bgwah]

Random fact: Washington has only had four State Auditors since 1905.

https://uselectionatlas.org/WIKI/index.php/State_Auditor_of_Washington

[Meeker]

http://apps.leg.wa.gov/billinfo/summary.aspx?bill=2316&year=2009

Brendan Williams and company says "fuck you" to Boeing.

[CultureKing]

^ It's only get to get worse in this dumb sales-tax-only state...

Do you think there is any chance in the near future (say next ten years) that we change over to a progressive tax system? I know it would take a constitutional amendment...

[Meeker]

Didn't notice this before but there's an odd amendment attached to the all-mail voting bill.

Right now precincts can be no larger than 900 poll voters. The bill changes that requirement to no larger than 2000 active voters. Then, should a precinct grow to more than 2000 active voters at some point in between precinct redistricting, the county central committee of each major political party may, if they so choose, order that there be four PCO positions for that precinct. So <2000 active voters, 1 PCO. >2000 active voters, 4 PCO's.

Why? I have no idea.

[Alcon]

warning: Drunk posting!

Didn't notice this before but there's an odd amendment attached to the all-mail voting bill.

Right now precincts can be no larger than 900 poll voters. The bill changes that requirement to no larger than 2000 active voters. Then, should a precinct grow to more than 2000 active voters at some point in between precinct redistricting, the county central committee of each major political party may, if they so choose, order that there be four PCO positions for that precinct. So <2000 active voters, 1 PCO. >2000 active voters, 4 PCO's.

Why? I have no idea.

...poll voters?  Isn't that requirement kind of moot, now that they've forced a Pierce County conversion?  I'm assuming this, since PierceCo (and a few other counties) have way more than 900 RVs per precinct.

A 900 RV/precinct limit would be really nice, the 2000 limit is too Oregonian and I resent it, but even King County has some precincts nearing that size (one outside of Redmond, last time I checked)

Post-script: This is what I do when I'm drunk, what the hell?

[Meeker]

Puyallup plz

[CultureKing]

I always find it sad when a school levy fails.

[Meeker]

Possibly interesting SurveyUSA poll:

Do you think same-sex couples should be allowed to marry?

Should: 47%
Should Not: 51%

Should Washington State law treat domestic partnerships in the same way it treats marriages?

Yes: 58%
No: 36%

Do you think same-sex couples should be allowed to adopt children?

Should: 50%
Should Not: 45%

Cross-tabs look a little screwy though: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fa0ea620-2f9f-4aaf-9ffa-478251370a9b

[RI]

Possibly interesting SurveyUSA poll:

Do you think same-sex couples should be allowed to marry?

Should: 47%
Should Not: 51%

Should Washington State law treat domestic partnerships in the same way it treats marriages?

Yes: 58%
No: 36%

Do you think same-sex couples should be allowed to adopt children?

Should: 50%
Should Not: 45%

Cross-tabs look a little screwy though: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fa0ea620-2f9f-4aaf-9ffa-478251370a9b

Why are males more pro-gay rights than women?

[bgwah]

The poll's internals are a bit strange. Eastern Washington is more pro-gay marriage than non-Seattle area Western Washington? eh.

White people approve 53-45, but Hispanics are 90% no? And Asians 83%? Although those two ethnic groups being against would not surprise me, I doubt it would be to that united against it.

Of course, the sub-samples are small. But if white people approve of it by an eight point margin, I suspect it would pass in a vote. And I agree that I highly doubt men truly approve of gay marriage more than women.

We would also need some context. I think the pro-side generally does a bit better if it's a vote to overturn gay marriage that has already been legalized by the courts or legislature.

In my opinion, I suspect Washington would vote in favor of gay marriage if there was a vote on it.

[Alcon]

I agree, actually.  We haven't had a real statewide effort to legalize gay marriage formally.  In CA, Prop. 8's numbers steadily declined before leveling off.  I'd give an outright vote on gay marriage about 50/50 odds of passing WA.  I'd give a re-affirmation vote 2-to-1 odds.

Other interesting notes from the same polling round.

Sims approval ratings as KC Exec:

Approve 35%
Disapprove 51%

Greg Nickels approval:

Approve 39%
Disapprove 49%

Odd:  By a 59-30 margin, voters in Seattle say life is getting worse.  King County-wide, this number is 71-18.  Sucks to be in the suburbs, or weird sampling?

[bgwah]

Sims is a great county executive and I feel very lucky to have had him in control for the past 12 years. I hope he eventually ends up as the #1 over at HUD. I don't know of any politicians better for that job.

I don't quite understand the hate for Nickels, either. I would probably vote for him if I lived in Seattle.

Anyway, for the Exec race, I suspect a divided liberal/Seattle Dem vote will guarantee Jarrett a spot on the ballot in November... He's the perfect candidate for all of these Dem-trending suburbs (especially the Eastside), and considering there's a good chance there won't be any Repukes in the final round, I'm guessing Jarrett will utterly annihilate Constantine/Phillips in November.

[Meeker]

David Taylor was appointed earlier today to fill the State House seat of Dan Newhouse, now Director of the Washington State Department of Agriculture. Taylor is an "agricultural consultant" from some hellhole called Moxee.

Obama won the LD, but Democrats will be hard pressed to find a qualified candidate to run against Taylor this fall (much less beat him).

[Alcon]

I have never understood why Democrats suck in the 15th LD so much.  Klickitat and Skamania are ancestrally Democratic and are coming back to the fold.  It's increasingly Hispanic (Obama broke 50% in the Yakima County portion).  The white voters are working-class, and although they're quite conservative, Dukakis ran pretty well in some of these areas.

Maybe they shouldn't be winning at the LD level, but they should at least be able to field candidates that don't get their asses beaten.  Or am I crazy?

[Meeker]

There's no bench.

[Alcon]

There's no bench.

And by "there's no bench"...does that possibly mean that there's a theoretical bench, but they're mostly mayors with inconveniently Hispanic surnames? 

I don't really understand where the GOP's bench comes from either; it's a weird district with no political center.  Then again, where are the Democrats going to go.  Mayor of White Salmon?  Yech, I see their problem.

[Meeker]

Everyone down there is involved in politics for one of three reasons: 1) They're farmers, 2) They're religious, or 3) They're Hispanic. The first two groups are Republicans and the third group isn't going to win the support of more than 40-45% of the district, so...

If we really tried I'm sure we could find some nice, middle-aged farmer type who was friendly with Hispanics. But no one in Olympia gives a flying f**ck about doing that.

Also, if one of those were to appear on their own, they're screwed. People down there associate the word "Democrat" with people like Christine Gregoire and Patty Murray and such. Our hypothetical "15th District Democrat" has no way to communicate his message to people that he's not like that. There's no fundraising base down there and, again, no one in Olympia gives a flying f**ck.

There are exceptions (the 8th District race and 14th District race this past year come to mind), but those were still pretty urban races. Rural races are anathema to the HDCC.

EDIT: I might want to add "Ron Paulites" to that first group of three. But that's a new development.

[bgwah]

Patty Murray hasn't done too horribly down there.

[Meeker]

Patty Murray hasn't done too horribly down there.

Yea, not the best example. I couldn't think up another name off the top of my head for "typical western Washington liberal Democrat" besides Gregoire.

[bgwah]

Patty Murray hasn't done too horribly down there.

Yea, not the best example. I couldn't think up another name off the top of my head for "typical western Washington liberal Democrat" besides Gregoire.

That's because they tend to like them just fine.