Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 836313 times)
minionofmidas
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« Reply #625 on: December 21, 2008, 02:49:39 PM »

What's with this Wilkeson place?
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Meeker
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« Reply #626 on: December 21, 2008, 03:19:43 PM »

Cheesy Pierce County has secured itself as being the most analyzed county in the history of the Atlas.

Anyways, the massive Obama love on the bases still confuses me a bit. Did we ever check if something similar occurred on other bases around the country?

Also, what's the difference between Steilacoom and Steilacoom Heights? 451 and 452 vs. 453 and 464?
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Meeker
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« Reply #627 on: December 21, 2008, 04:51:45 PM »

Guest      01:47:28 pm     Printing the topic "Washington '08: What the hell just happened?".

We're famous!
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Alcon
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« Reply #628 on: December 21, 2008, 10:54:46 PM »

Cheesy Pierce County has secured itself as being the most analyzed county in the history of the Atlas.

Anyways, the massive Obama love on the bases still confuses me a bit. Did we ever check if something similar occurred on other bases around the country?

Also, what's the difference between Steilacoom and Steilacoom Heights? 451 and 452 vs. 453 and 464?

I think (not at home) it's 451-3 vs. 464.  451-3 (IIRC) are Steilacoom city (split), 464 is totally unincorporated.  I had nowhere else to put it

The same sorts of swings happened at Fairchild in Spokane County, and Trident Naval Base near Bremerton (where the swing was something crazy, like nearly 30 points).  I get the impression it was pretty much universal.

I know essentially nothing about Wilkeson, maybe Meeker does, I've never been there.  It's by Carbonado (which barely swung Obama) and the two rural precincts around Wilkeson/Carbonado were both unchanged or barely McCain swings, I think.  Odd area (especially since Carbonado votes so drastically different from Wilkeson)
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Meeker
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« Reply #629 on: December 21, 2008, 11:39:36 PM »

I've never been to Wilkeson. Anything east of Bonney Lake is dead to me - even Orting is pushing it.
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Alcon
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« Reply #630 on: December 22, 2008, 03:00:54 AM »
« Edited: December 22, 2008, 03:03:05 AM by Alcon »

I've been to Bonney Lake, and that's in fact why it's dead to me

I just noticed now that Bremerton 109 is actually a military precinct too -- Jackson Park Naval Reservation, which houses family members stationed at Naval Base Kitsap.

Bush carried it 63%-36%; Obama won it 53%-43%, for an overall swing of 37.58%.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #631 on: December 22, 2008, 01:00:18 PM »

Still no Grays Harbor map.

Oh come on. Do it for Kurt Cobain.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #632 on: December 22, 2008, 02:11:08 PM »

Thanks!
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CultureKing
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« Reply #633 on: December 27, 2008, 02:55:30 AM »

So, Alcon, did you end up getting Thurston county?
Wink
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Alcon
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« Reply #634 on: December 27, 2008, 03:02:19 AM »

So, Alcon, did you end up getting Thurston county?
Wink

Never sent it, and they're away for the holidays.

I just sent an email to bug a friend for it, we'll see.  Sorry about the delay.  I promise you'll get one in the end.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #635 on: December 27, 2008, 09:01:13 AM »

Re GH... the thing in the nw is a rez of course (what's it called again, Quinault?) but shouldn't there be a rez in the se corner as well (Chehalis)?
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Alcon
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« Reply #636 on: December 27, 2008, 02:33:10 PM »
« Edited: December 28, 2008, 02:36:21 PM by Alcon »

Re GH... the thing in the nw is a rez of course (what's it called again, Quinault?) but shouldn't there be a rez in the se corner as well (Chehalis)?

Yeah, which means that the reservation there (a small one granted) has awful turnout, or the rural area around Oakville is quite conservative other than the Indians.  Probably a bit of both.  Blockhouse (the rural Oakville precinct) was Obama +3, while Oakville was only Obama +4.  In 2004, they were were Bush +16 and Bush +5, respectively.  But the rez area is only a few hundred, and the precinct is about 700.

I doubt they're unusually Republican for Indians or anything, I just think they don't make much of a dent in their precinct.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #637 on: December 28, 2008, 10:30:02 AM »

Wait... which one was Bush by 16?
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Alcon
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« Reply #638 on: December 28, 2008, 02:36:07 PM »
« Edited: December 28, 2008, 02:37:44 PM by Alcon »


Blockhouse -> Bush +16 to Obama +3
Oakville city -> Bush +5 to Obama +4

Thurston shapefile from my friend is for 2004 (maybe I'll make a 2004 map!) and I'll have to re-contact the county Monday.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #639 on: December 29, 2008, 08:46:17 PM »

wow. Obama won an impressively large amount of the rural vote. Can anyone guess where Evergreen is?
Wink


Thanks Alcon.
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Alcon
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« Reply #640 on: January 02, 2009, 03:31:08 AM »
« Edited: January 02, 2009, 03:39:51 AM by Alcon »

Well, this is one of my rare total and complete F-ups.  I've been including a massive portion of unincorporated Spokane County as the City of Spokane.

The corrected total for Spokane is:

2004 President: Kerry 50.6%, Bush 47.6% (so it did vote Kerry after all)
2008 President: Obama 56.3%, McCain 41.3%
2008 Governor: Gregoire 55.9%, Rossi 44.1%

The 2004 polling places being named stuff like "FD 4 Sta 44 - Newport Highway" and "Airway Heights Community Center" should have probably been a hint.  I apologize for sucking so much. 
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Alcon
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« Reply #641 on: January 03, 2009, 02:00:08 AM »
« Edited: January 03, 2009, 02:09:44 AM by Alcon »

Since no news is actually happening, random tinkering with returns from Washington state military bases.

In total, 4,230 ballots were cast in military base precincts, up from 4,204 in 2004.

Army
2004: 1,549 ballots; 59-40 Bush
2008: 1,802 ballots; 50-48 Obama
16% turnout increase, Obama swing 21.8%

Air Force
2004: 1,239 ballots; 75-23 Bush
2008: 1,057 ballots; 63-35 McCain
15% turnout decrease, Obama swing 24.0%

Navy
2004: 1,416 ballots; 74-25 Bush
2008: 1,371 ballots; 55-44 McCain
3% turnout decrease, Obama swing 38.1%

So, while McCain bled horribly among all sorts of military voters vs. Bush, his worst losses appear easily to be among Navy voters -- the very branch of service in which he and John Kerry served.  Hah.

Individual base information (2004 results in parentheses, turnout in brackets, Dem swing in red):

Fort Lewis AB (Tacoma): 50-48 Obama (40-59) [+16%] +21.8%

Fairchild AFB (Spokane): 65-34 McCain (21-77) [-10%] +26.0%
McChord AFB (Tacoma): 61-37 McCain (27-72) [-20%] +21.6%

Jackson Park NR (Bremerton): 53-43 Obama (36-63) [-4%] +37.6%
Trident NB (Silverdale): 58-41 McCain (23-76) [-5%] +34.4%
Whidbey NAB (Oak Harbor): 56-42 McCain (22-78) [-2%] +43.0%

OK, now someone think of news that is actually news
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Meeker
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« Reply #642 on: January 03, 2009, 03:14:55 AM »
« Edited: January 03, 2009, 03:19:45 AM by VP Meeker »

Washington State Legislature news!

Rep. Steve Hailey (R-Mesa) died last week. His death will trigger a special election this November (and an appointment sometime in the next few months). Democrats have no shot at the seat.

Rep. Bill Grant (D-Walla Walla) announced a while ago that he has terminal cancer. His condition is worse than the press is letting on, and he'll likely die within the next few months. The local Democratic Party will get to appoint any possible replacement, but I'm skeptical that the Democrats are going to be able to hold this seat with anybody other than Grant. "Skeptical" is probably the wrong word considering McCain won the district by 21 points and Rossi by 30. I'd probably be better off with "99.99999% certain." Grant is the only Democrat east of the Cascades who doesn't represent Spokane County.

Rep. Brendan Williams (D-Olympia) has joined AFSCME's lawsuit against Governor Gregoire relating to collective bargaining negotiations not included in the new state budget (apparently the unions would rather have their members fired than the remaining ones not get a 2.2% pay increase. Who knew?). Williams has been acting up more so than usual as of late. He's always been a thorn in the side of Speaker Frank Chopp (D-Seattle), particularly on the every contentious Homeowner's Bill of Rights, but the attention whoring is really getting out of hand. What's odd about this is that Williams announced earlier this year that he plans on retiring from the Legislature after his term ends in 2011. Why is he trying to increase his profile and liberal credentials when he's leaving? There's no place else for him to go besides House leadership - the Senate seat is secure (and leaving the House for a while wouldn't help him win it), there's no way in hell he'd beat Baird in a primary challenge nor would he be able to win it as an open seat, and the thought of him running for statewide office is even more laughable.

Rep. Mary Lou Dickerson (D-Seattle) has all but announced that she'll be running for King County Council this year. Dickerson probably won't resign from the Legislature until after she gets sworn in at her new job though, so don't expect a special election here.

Sen. Pam Roach (R-19th Century) is continuing her quest for the position of King County Director of Elections. One can only pray that she'll be spending less time in Olympia in order to campaign, and that she'll resign her Senate seat out of anger when she loses in February. Prayer, however, has not been successful in past attempts to rid the state government of Roach.

Do you feel better after reading this? You shouldn't - I just wasted five minutes of your life. Sucker.
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bgwah
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« Reply #643 on: January 03, 2009, 03:21:35 AM »
« Edited: January 03, 2009, 03:25:38 AM by bgwah »

Aww, too bad about Grant.

Would've been interesting to see him as a statewide D candidate.

I'm sure the Democrats could find a good candidate for that seat. One that would at least have a chance come 2010. But they'll make the worst possible choice, of course.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #644 on: January 03, 2009, 04:02:59 AM »

Since no news is actually happening, random tinkering with returns from Washington state military bases.

In total, 4,230 ballots were cast in military base precincts, up from 4,204 in 2004.

Army
2004: 1,549 ballots; 59-40 Bush
2008: 1,802 ballots; 50-48 Obama
16% turnout increase, Obama swing 21.8%

Air Force
2004: 1,239 ballots; 75-23 Bush
2008: 1,057 ballots; 63-35 McCain
15% turnout decrease, Obama swing 24.0%

Navy
2004: 1,416 ballots; 74-25 Bush
2008: 1,371 ballots; 55-44 McCain
3% turnout decrease, Obama swing 38.1%

So, while McCain bled horribly among all sorts of military voters vs. Bush, his worst losses appear easily to be among Navy voters -- the very branch of service in which he and John Kerry served.  Hah.

Individual base information (2004 results in parentheses, turnout in brackets, Dem swing in red):

Fort Lewis AB (Tacoma): 50-48 Obama (40-59) [+16%] +21.8%

Fairchild AFB (Spokane): 65-34 McCain (21-77) [-10%] +26.0%
McChord AFB (Tacoma): 61-37 McCain (27-72) [-20%] +21.6%

Jackson Park NR (Bremerton): 53-43 Obama (36-63) [-4%] +37.6%
Trident NB (Silverdale): 58-41 McCain (23-76) [-5%] +34.4%
Whidbey NAB (Oak Harbor): 56-42 McCain (22-78) [-2%] +43.0%

OK, now someone think of news that is actually news

Thank you Alcon!

It doesn't surprise me too much that the Navy has swung the most, although I would be interested to see base precinct numbers from the Marines in Camp Pendleton and Fort Bragg between '04 and '08 to get a greater idea of the military swing between branches...

Any ideas of how to construct a more complete "base precinct" analysis? Just wondering if anyone else is covering precincts in other military communities or has access to data that others could filter through?
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Meeker
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« Reply #645 on: January 03, 2009, 04:31:54 AM »

Also of note is that both special elections in the East will occur in 2009, and that means they'll be dealing with the lower turnout/slightly more conservative off-year electorate.

I don't think it's ever been mentioned, but gadfly candidate Brad Klippert actually got elected to the State House this year. Silly Yakima.

And I also changed the thread title to reflect the times.
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Alcon
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« Reply #646 on: January 03, 2009, 06:02:50 AM »
« Edited: January 03, 2009, 06:17:45 AM by Alcon »

Speak for yourself.  I got a $150 VISA giftcard for Christmas and I'm hiding it so the state legislature and axed WaMu employees can't get to it.
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Meeker
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« Reply #647 on: January 03, 2009, 06:53:03 AM »

The Department of Revenue will happily take the $13.20 that is owed to them once you eventually spend it Cheesy

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CultureKing
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« Reply #648 on: January 03, 2009, 07:57:33 AM »

Here is some news from Olympia: All the state workers are scared sh**tless!

As the new budget gets debated and is finally hammered out the state workers have gone almost into a frenzy. The number who will be laid off will be huge and until the budget is finalized no one is safe... I am just happy that my parents (both of whom work for the state) have other avenues of work available. But for Thurston county as a whole 2009 will very likely be a very bad year.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #649 on: January 03, 2009, 08:50:27 AM »

Since no news is actually happening, random tinkering with returns from Washington state military bases.

In total, 4,230 ballots were cast in military base precincts, up from 4,204 in 2004.

Army
2004: 1,549 ballots; 59-40 Bush
2008: 1,802 ballots; 50-48 Obama
16% turnout increase, Obama swing 21.8%

Air Force
2004: 1,239 ballots; 75-23 Bush
2008: 1,057 ballots; 63-35 McCain
15% turnout decrease, Obama swing 24.0%

Navy
2004: 1,416 ballots; 74-25 Bush
2008: 1,371 ballots; 55-44 McCain
3% turnout decrease, Obama swing 38.1%

So, while McCain bled horribly among all sorts of military voters vs. Bush, his worst losses appear easily to be among Navy voters -- the very branch of service in which he and John Kerry served.  Hah.

Individual base information (2004 results in parentheses, turnout in brackets, Dem swing in red):

Fort Lewis AB (Tacoma): 50-48 Obama (40-59) [+16%] +21.8%

Fairchild AFB (Spokane): 65-34 McCain (21-77) [-10%] +26.0%
McChord AFB (Tacoma): 61-37 McCain (27-72) [-20%] +21.6%

Jackson Park NR (Bremerton): 53-43 Obama (36-63) [-4%] +37.6%
Trident NB (Silverdale): 58-41 McCain (23-76) [-5%] +34.4%
Whidbey NAB (Oak Harbor): 56-42 McCain (22-78) [-2%] +43.0%

OK, now someone think of news that is actually news

For comparison: Alaska bases.

First the big bases:
Fort Wainwright (army, just outside of Fairbanks)
2004 1244 votes cast, 817 R, 411 D
2008 522 votes cast, 338 R, 176 D
Swing (just for lolz given the change in turnout/postal ballot utilitation) 1.6 to D

Fort Richardson (army, just outside of, and technically within, Anchorage)
2004 821 votes cast, 517 R, 295 D
2008 411 votes cast, 281 R, 123 D
Swing 9.0 to R (lol)

Eielson (Air Force, a little further outside of Fairbanks)
2004 1262 votes cast, 1058 R, 190 D
2008 641 votes cast, 497 R, 137 D
Swing 12.6 to D

Elmendorf (right next door to Fort Richardson)
2004 1106 votes cast, 897 R, 201 D
2008 1340 votes cast (what happened?), 990 R, 329 D
Swing 13.6 to D

now the tiny ones
Fort Greely (specialist army installation for arctic conditions training - it's at one of the coldest locations in the entire US. Semi-sorta-closed down. A little further out of Fairbanks than Eielson. Seems to be included in Delta Junction precinct, for which results below. Note that bulk of precinct population is not on-base.)
2004 348 votes cast, 278 R, 54 D
2008 348 votes cast, 286 R, 54 D
Swing 2.3 to R

Clear (Air Force. Missile launch site, really. Also near Fairbanks but towards the southwest rather than southeast. Precinct also called Clear, but includes territory outside of base. Not sure how many residents outside the base it includes, or even whether there are any - I think there are some, though.)
2004 89 votes cast, 59 R, 25 D
2008 81 votes cast, 59 R, 17 D
Swing 13.7 to R

Eareckson (Air Force. Not a separate base anymore, but an outlying bit of Eielson, and the last remaining military installation in the Aleutians. A radar station, really, with 27 residents as of Census 2000. Identical to Shemya Island. Included in Aleutians #1 precinct, whose polling booth is on Atka Island 12 degrees of latitude to the east. Obviously then, anybody interested in voting actually votes by mail.)
2004 32 votes cast, 16 R, 14 D
2008 44 votes cast, 22 D, 21 R
Swing 8.5 to D.

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