Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 837314 times)
Alcon
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« Reply #525 on: November 27, 2008, 12:25:25 AM »
« edited: November 27, 2008, 12:30:36 AM by Alcon »

Very good work on those maps. I have a question. Indian reservations vote for which party?

Way Democratic.  Obama didn't really do so well in Reservation areas, slightly worse than Kerry in some -- Clintonites and some third-party leak.  Gregoire did better.  Obama still won them, though, and out-performed Kerry by a good stretch on some reservations.

I also think McCain improved slightly because politically apathetic Indians are more likely to consider voting Republican.  Poll places got eliminated since 2004.  Just a guess.  I'll have to look at it more.

The area around Nespelem on the Okanogan County map is Indian country, as is the random dark red in northern Kitsap County.  The red areas west of Bainbridge Island on the map area also part of Port Madison Indian Reservation, but I think it's like 10% Indian.  Most of it is Bainbridge-type spillover.

Obama's second-best county in the U.S., Shannon, South Dakota, is the Pine Ridge Reservation.  He did stellar with plains Indians, and in the Southwest, where he did tribal connections.  Not so much of that in the NW, obv.
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Lunar
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« Reply #526 on: November 27, 2008, 12:37:34 AM »


Sad
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Alcon
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« Reply #527 on: November 27, 2008, 12:53:00 AM »

I just got a Pierce County shapefile from the Democrats guy!  Smiley

Next up:  Clark County swing map, then Pierce stuff.
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Meeker
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« Reply #528 on: November 27, 2008, 01:23:30 AM »

Can you do the County Executive race for Pierce? Or is the program not capable of doing a race with more than two candidates?
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Alcon
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« Reply #529 on: November 27, 2008, 01:56:43 AM »

Can you do the County Executive race for Pierce? Or is the program not capable of doing a race with more than two candidates?

This program = Me with an Excel sheet and a color palette I made Tongue It can do whatever information I modify the shapefile to contain the values of.

I can do it but it'll be 215% more of a bitch.  I also can only get what's included in the precinct file, of course.

I'll probably just take the margin scale and apply it to percent, or something.  I'll figure it out.

Oh, the guy from the Democrats emailed me back this along with the precinct shapefiles:

Quote
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Pretty cool.  I guess I'll be in contact with him.

Just finished Pierce maps, uploading them now.
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Meeker
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« Reply #530 on: November 27, 2008, 02:11:37 AM »

Goddamn 28-451
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Alcon
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« Reply #531 on: November 27, 2008, 02:20:46 AM »


What'd 28-451 do specifically among McCain precincts? Tongue
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Meeker
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« Reply #532 on: November 27, 2008, 02:25:04 AM »


It taints my visual continuity of the 28th. Angry

There are also other parts of the district that are just as rich as 28-451 and didn't have any problem voting for Obama. They need to get with the picture.
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Alcon
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« Reply #533 on: November 27, 2008, 02:28:49 AM »
« Edited: November 27, 2008, 02:35:58 AM by Alcon »


It taints my visual continuity of the 28th. Angry

There are also other parts of the district that are just as rich as 28-451 and didn't have any problem voting for Obama. They need to get with the picture.

You could always move here to the 27th, where we not only have visual continuity, but also not a single McCain precinct.  Tongue
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Meeker
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« Reply #534 on: November 27, 2008, 02:37:13 AM »


It taints my visual continuity of the 28th. Angry

There are also other parts of the district that are just as rich as 28-451 and didn't have any problem voting for Obama. They need to get with the picture.

You could always move here to the 27th, while not only do we have visual continuity, but not a single McCain precinct.  Tongue

But then I'd have to be a Tacoma elitist. Sad  I'm much more comfortable in real Pierce County. Cheesy
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Meeker
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« Reply #535 on: November 27, 2008, 02:41:51 AM »

The perceptions, judgments and prejudices in my head are far more important. Tongue
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Alcon
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« Reply #536 on: November 27, 2008, 05:24:35 AM »

While I'm at it, any requests?

Pierce County Exec I'm up for.
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Meeker
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« Reply #537 on: November 27, 2008, 05:28:14 AM »

Do you have a Whitman map? That might be neat.

Also the Governor's race in Clark, maybe Goldmark in Okanogan
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Meeker
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« Reply #538 on: November 27, 2008, 05:35:30 AM »

No sleep till the maps are done!
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Meeker
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« Reply #539 on: November 28, 2008, 07:27:14 AM »

Don't know if you already know about this/whether it might be interesting at all, but there's a link on the Redistricting Commission's website to shapefiles for Legislative Districts: http://www.redistricting.wa.gov/
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bgwah
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« Reply #540 on: November 28, 2008, 04:23:42 PM »

McCain only had one >60 LD? Strange.

The West Seattle/Vashon district being >30 McCain also seems weird.
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Meeker
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« Reply #541 on: November 28, 2008, 05:51:53 PM »

Obama winning the 15th is just bizarre.
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Alcon
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« Reply #542 on: November 28, 2008, 07:21:54 PM »
« Edited: November 28, 2008, 07:38:50 PM by Alcon »

Obama winning the 15th is just bizarre.

Not super-bizarre, but definitely impressive.  Lots of Hispanics in the Yakima County portion.  Cantwell won it, and Bush won it by less than 10% (9.99% actually).  It surprised me, though; I would have expected Obama to have fallen short by a point or two.  Basically, Obama rocked the towns along the Columbia River, did well-enough in the inland white areas (average swings), and cleaned up among Hispanics.

McCain had only one >60, and it was 62-37 (down from 66-33).  Bush had eight.  The GOP losing its shirt in Okanogan County, with Hispanics, and among urban Eastern WA swing voters pretty much shot him.

The West Seattle/Vashon district is going to be in the very low 20s, I just f'ed up the shading on that one.  Fixed now.

Btw: Nothing here contains write-ins.  Dave counts those as votes; I don't, because Washington state law considers rejected write-ins to be effective undervotes.  Plus I like King County being 70% shaded.
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Alcon
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« Reply #543 on: November 28, 2008, 10:18:34 PM »
« Edited: November 28, 2008, 10:26:21 PM by Alcon »

Not mine, but interesting



Spanaway (where Bush did pretty stunningly for a Republican in 2004) and Parkland seem to have been fit pretty hard, and Midland/etc. didn't hold up so well eitehr.

The growth areas are less interesting and have more to do with population changes.
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ottermax
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« Reply #544 on: November 29, 2008, 03:57:28 PM »

I never realized how strongly Democratic Bainbridge Island was.

Anyways, the LD results are very interesting. It definitely gives a better picture of the election.

The changes in the Eastside are pretty clear. Only a few years ago, the Republicans were competitive in districts like the 41st, but this election we gave a >60% vote to Obama. Every district in King Co. voted for Obama!
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #545 on: November 29, 2008, 05:41:00 PM »

And now, a place where people actually live!  Thank God for the flu, gives me an excuse to do this all day for three days.

Kitsap




Any word on naval base precincts? I know much of county's economic navy related, but curious about how Bremerton proper, and base precincts went this time around.
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Alcon
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« Reply #546 on: November 29, 2008, 08:17:17 PM »

Any word on naval base precincts? I know much of county's economic navy related, but curious about how Bremerton proper, and base precincts went this time around.

The Navy ship voters are put in with Bremerton 1, which is also a downtown precinct.  I'm not sure what proportion of the voting population they are, but they can't be super-Republican.  Obama won that precinct 64-34 Obama, after Kerry won it 58-39.

The Trident Naval Base precinct (from the top of Bainbridge Island all the way east, the darkest blue precinct) went from 76-23 Bush to 58-41 McCain.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #547 on: November 29, 2008, 11:40:42 PM »

Yeah, the GOP is basically as dead on Bainbridge it is in Seattle.  Pretty funny to see rural McMansion precincts where Obama broke 80%.

Mason County (probably the most boringly even county in the state):





Can anyone guess where the two main indian reservations are?
Wink
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Alcon
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« Reply #548 on: November 29, 2008, 11:43:16 PM »

Is there Indian land around Kamilche?  I thought it was just the Skokomish Rez in Mason, but there's gotta be some reason Kamilche is liberal.

Although it was barely >60 so it may just be a blip.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #549 on: November 30, 2008, 01:19:08 AM »

Any word on naval base precincts? I know much of county's economic navy related, but curious about how Bremerton proper, and base precincts went this time around.

The Navy ship voters are put in with Bremerton 1, which is also a downtown precinct.  I'm not sure what proportion of the voting population they are, but they can't be super-Republican.  Obama won that precinct 64-34 Obama, after Kerry won it 58-39.

The Trident Naval Base precinct (from the top of Bainbridge Island all the way east, the darkest blue precinct) went from 76-23 Bush to 58-41 McCain.

Alcon, have you cross-posted this on the military vote thread in the '08 election results area?

It's starting to look like there is at least a +15 Dem  swing in NW base precincts. I would post some for Oregon, but I don't think there is anything outside of maybe a precinct with a slight Coast Guard influence... Sad
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