Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 837228 times)
Alcon
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« Reply #475 on: November 19, 2008, 08:29:14 PM »

When's the last time a Democrat won Okanogan County but not Pierce?

1964 Secretary of State, maybe the weirdest modern result I've ever seen.

What was with that?

No idea
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Alcon
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« Reply #476 on: November 19, 2008, 10:01:26 PM »
« Edited: November 19, 2008, 10:04:02 PM by Alcon »

Last two days of Pierce County:

Obama 62%
McCain 36%

Gregoire 53%
Rossi 47%

McIntire 58%
Martin 42%

Goldmark 50%
Sutherland 50%

I was meaning to track County Exec too, but I forgot.  How's that changed?  Latest voters sure are weird downticket.  They seem to be voting like McIntire was the incumbent
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #477 on: November 20, 2008, 01:41:05 AM »

Washington State GOP Confident Despite Loss

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2008368718_gop09m0.html

After what happened in 2006 and 2008 in WA, it takes some level of delusion to feel good at this point.  Or maybe it is just a front.

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bgwah
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« Reply #478 on: November 20, 2008, 02:12:20 AM »

Washington State GOP Confident Despite Loss

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2008368718_gop09m0.html

After what happened in 2006 and 2008 in WA, it takes some level of delusion to feel good at this point.  Or maybe it is just a front.



My thoughts: Ever since the 2006 election, I've basically figured that in the state legislature, the Democrats had probably hit their ceiling. The only place Republicans had to go was up---they lost almost every seat they could possibly lose. A few suburban districts here and there may continue trending Dem and elect a Democratic legislator when one of the Republican incumbents step down (5th LD, for example), but the Republicans will regain some of the lean R seats they've lost (an incumbent Democratic Representative in the 6th district (suburban Spokane) who was first elected in 2006 has already been defeated, for example).

I expect Reichert to be the last Republican Representative in the 8th district for a long time. I'm fairly certain the Democrats will be able to take him down once they get a decent candidate. Whether that will ever happen is uncertain, though once Reichert steps down the Democrats should definitely win it.

The GOP is in deep trouble in suburban Seattle. Let's look at the Southern United States---in the 80s and 90s, we saw a lot of Democratic politicans ditch the party and join the GOP. This is quite indicative of a long-term change in the way the area votes. In suburban Seattle we've seen people like Rodney Tom and Fred Jarrett jump ship. It's clear that suburban Seattle is going Democrat and it won't be going back any time soon. We saw this happen in many parts of Seattle like Fremont and Wallingford in the 70s. They used to be Republican and then took a sharp-turn for the left. This example is probably a bit radical, but I do honestly think we're seeing the political Seattleization of suburban Seattle (particular the Northside and Eastside). It's true that some areas, like suburban Pierce County, are becoming the new Republican suburban strongholds, but quite simply they don't even come close to countering the Metro-wide Dem-trend.

As for statewide officials, they'll sneak in some Republicans for sure. Maybe even a Governor. Alcon and I agreed a while ago that Rob McKenna was more likely than Rossi to be the next Republican Governor of Washington. I think McKenna has a very good chance of being Governor eventually and I don't think he has hid his intentions to seek the office. Rossi had one important thing McKenna doesn't, though. Looks. Let's face it, Rossi only did so well because he was a handsome young man up against an ugly old woman. McKenna is an ugly nerd with glasses. It's not something I base my vote on, but considering how shallow your average swing voter is, it's definitely something worth considering. Sonntag is the only Democrat I'd be confident with against McKenna. Though the other mentioned names (Inslee, for example) would also have a good chance (though it's a risk I'd rather not take). I doubt Reed is popular enough with Republicans to make it past the primary and we just saw Sutherland go down this month. Allan Martin was an extremely strong candidate for an open office and he lost (and McIntire did pretty well in some traditionally Democratic areas for such a close election, surprisingly).

The GOP has yet another problem---Washingtonians often get their conservativeness out of them via referendums and initiatives, thus eliminating some of the need to vote Republican. I believe Chris Vance has talked about this.

So, McKenna aside, there aren't any truly worrisome Republicans out there yet. I doubt McMorris Rodgers will be leaving the House, but perhaps I've been misled. The Democrats will probably control the state legislature for decades to come. The Puget Sound is turning into the Bay Area 2.0 and Washington doesn't have enough populous Republican areas like Orange County (and much of Southern California)* to counter it.


*yeah, they weren't so Republican this year, but you get my drift
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Meeker
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« Reply #479 on: November 20, 2008, 03:13:34 AM »

I'm curious what you're referring to in regards to suburban Pierce County trending Republican. What specific areas?
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bgwah
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« Reply #480 on: November 20, 2008, 03:35:44 AM »

I'm curious what you're referring to in regards to suburban Pierce County trending Republican. What specific areas?

I didn't say they were trending Republican. Maybe a 60% Republican rural area turned into a 57% Republican suburban area. That may be a swing to the Democrats, but in terms of raw votes, it's an increase for the Republicans (and will increase the R % in Pierce). Pierce is less reliably Democrat than it has been in the past. The county isn't dominated by Tacoma like it used to be. Pierce would've been Democrat in a 50-50 election 40 years ago. Now it would be Republican in such a scenario. When you look at the major areas of the Metro, suburban Pierce is the most Republican. I was thinking of areas like Graham but I'm really not very familiar with specific places in suburban Pierce.

I'll let Alcon give a more detailed answer...
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Meeker
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« Reply #481 on: November 20, 2008, 03:44:31 AM »

Ah, I see what you're saying. I'm pretty sure I know which parts you're talking about, but Alcon would be able to be more detailed. Alcon, would you say it's sort of unincorporated hinterlands in the 1st and 3rd County Council Districts?
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Alcon
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« Reply #482 on: November 20, 2008, 04:00:43 AM »
« Edited: November 20, 2008, 04:03:45 AM by Alcon »

Yep.  The 1st was counteracted this year because Obama was a good candidate for Lake Tapps and some of the boom areas around Bonney Lake.  I think 2000->2004 was telling.  The Dem margins are going to revert some, but they're never going to return in a few places.  And that's why Pierce County is trending blue (although it won't this year)

I don't really think any part of suburban Pierce is a Republican stronghold.  There are some areas around Lake Tapps where Bush certainly thwumped Kerry, but Obama way brought down those numbers.

The real new bedrock GOP area in Pierce County is around Graham and the southern part of Elk Plain.  There are a lot of down- to mid-scale voters here, as well as some newer upper-incomers escaping urban life.  I guess that area is part of the Seattle-Tacoma metro by virtue of being part of the Tacoma metro (barely).  But I think the idea of including that area in the "Seattle metro" is ridiculous.  It's wayyy not.

Anyway, even Obama was running against population growth in a few areas around Bonney Lake.  Just eyeballing, and without my 2000 results, Gore also did better than Obama in parts of Graham and southern Spanaway.  I think those are more long-term impacts.  It's a mix of growth and a loss of Democratic cultural appeal.

Basically, in any area where tax-resenting middle-class people (many of them fundies) are moving into downscale "redneck" areas = bad news for the Democrats.  That describes a lot of Pierce County.  Obama's strong showing in developments and wealthy enclaves (which tend to share districts with the aforementioned areas) temporary hid what's a longer trend.

Although I don't think we'll be seeing anything crazy sharp like 2000->2004.  I could go into more detail why, but instead I'll just give some geopolitical shout-outs: Puyallup/South Hill, Tacoma 'burbs (Southwest and Northeast), Gig Harbor Peninsula.  I think you see where I'm going with that.

Anyway, the Dem worry for a while was that those exurban growth trends would continue while the inner 'burbs and "old exurbs" like Gig Harbor wouldn't move.  I doubt the GOP will get a Perfect Storm like that.  On the other hand, without a real bad housing market, and with few traditional inner suburbs, I think the basic trend is GOP.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #483 on: November 20, 2008, 04:19:06 PM »



Why did Gregoire do so badly in the south of the state [qm].
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Alcon
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« Reply #484 on: November 20, 2008, 04:30:35 PM »
« Edited: November 20, 2008, 04:37:28 PM by Alcon »



Why did Gregoire do so badly in the south of the state [qm].

She did fine in every county except Wahkiakum (the tiny one) and Cowlitz (the one to the right of Wahkiakum), actually.  And Pacific, the red one, to some degree.

She's on track to lose Clark by 2 (Kerry lost by over 5), Lewis by 29 (Kerry lost by 32), Skamania by <5 (Kerry lost by >6).  On the other hand, she's going to lose Cowlitz by 7 (Kerry +3), Wahkiakum by 16 (Bush +7), and Pacific she'll win by 4 (Kerry +9).

These are areas where her earlier strategy of playing culture warrior probably worked out badly.  Cowlitz is strongly pro-life.  She just didn't do so well countywide in the primary, and that pattern continued into the General.  I'd have to see precinct results to get more detailed, but there's some oddity.  She did fine in Grays Harbor, which is kind of like Cowlitz except with more of a union tradition.  My inclination is that it's also less Catholic.  Although after Cowlitz's weird 180 on assisted suicide this year (worst county for it last time around, this time passed with like 60%), I don't know what to think.

Media markets may have come into play, as well.  Her performance in Clark isn't really all that amazing, considering how well she did in the Puget Sound 'burbs and her surprise endorsement by The Columbian (plus some other locally favorable news).
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Alcon
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« Reply #485 on: November 20, 2008, 04:46:19 PM »

Yakima's question ballot batch was 64-35 Obama.  Which is, IMHO, a great argument for bringing back bilingual option ballots.

Pet cause, but seriously, didn't we used to have that option?
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bgwah
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« Reply #486 on: November 20, 2008, 07:32:40 PM »



Why did Gregoire do so badly in the south of the state [qm].

Something else that is very strange about that map is that, despite Gregoire only getting 53% statewide, she won Island and Skagit counties, which would normally be Republican under such circumstances...
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CultureKing
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« Reply #487 on: November 20, 2008, 07:44:38 PM »



Why did Gregoire do so badly in the south of the state [qm].

Something else that is very strange about that map is that, despite Gregoire only getting 53% statewide, she won Island and Skagit counties, which would normally be Republican under such circumstances...

Maybe they just wanted to keep the map looking neat and tidy.
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Alcon
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« Reply #488 on: November 20, 2008, 08:13:29 PM »
« Edited: November 20, 2008, 08:26:12 PM by Alcon »

I wonder why King County just got rid of 15,000 already-counted votes while reducing their ballots remaining by 10,000?
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Meeker
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« Reply #489 on: November 20, 2008, 10:14:14 PM »

I wonder why King County just got rid of 15,000 already-counted votes while reducing their ballots remaining by 10,000?

They're trying to steal the race for Rossi!
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Alcon
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« Reply #490 on: November 20, 2008, 10:21:08 PM »

Final Assessor-Treasurer/County Exec results were out at 6.  An update is posted but I don't know where the RCV algorithm run is.

My guess is McCarthy/Washram (ew) but I'm curious.
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Meeker
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« Reply #491 on: November 20, 2008, 10:28:10 PM »

Yea, final results were 50.75% McCarthy and 51.92% for Washam. The Round 2 elimination of Shabro is within recount territory though... I might send the Tribune an e-mail and try to stir things up.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #492 on: November 20, 2008, 10:57:06 PM »

What are the odds that the Dems ever get a good candidate against Reichert? (not that this means they would win, which might depend a lot on the environment)  Burner performed worse than Ross did, which is hilarious in many ways.
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Meeker
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« Reply #493 on: November 20, 2008, 11:02:01 PM »

We'll certainly get a different candidate. Whether they'll be better is going to determined by primary voters... the field isn't going to clear like it has the past two cycles.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #494 on: November 21, 2008, 01:16:56 AM »
« Edited: November 21, 2008, 01:33:51 AM by Ogre Mage »

Washington State GOP Confident Despite Loss

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2008368718_gop09m0.html

After what happened in 2006 and 2008 in WA, it takes some level of delusion to feel good at this point.  Or maybe it is just a front.



My thoughts:
I expect Reichert to be the last Republican Representative in the 8th district for a long time. I'm fairly certain the Democrats will be able to take him down once they get a decent candidate. Whether that will ever happen is uncertain, though once Reichert steps down the Democrats should definitely win it.

The GOP is in deep trouble in suburban Seattle. Let's look at the Southern United States---in the 80s and 90s, we saw a lot of Democratic politicans ditch the party and join the GOP. This is quite indicative of a long-term change in the way the area votes. In suburban Seattle we've seen people like Rodney Tom and Fred Jarrett jump ship. It's clear that suburban Seattle is going Democrat and it won't be going back any time soon. We saw this happen in many parts of Seattle like Fremont and Wallingford in the 70s. They used to be Republican and then took a sharp-turn for the left. This example is probably a bit radical, but I do honestly think we're seeing the political Seattleization of suburban Seattle (particular the Northside and Eastside). It's true that some areas, like suburban Pierce County, are becoming the new Republican suburban strongholds, but quite simply they don't even come close to countering the Metro-wide Dem-trend.

As for statewide officials, they'll sneak in some Republicans for sure. Maybe even a Governor. Alcon and I agreed a while ago that Rob McKenna was more likely than Rossi to be the next Republican Governor of Washington. I think McKenna has a very good chance of being Governor eventually and I don't think he has hid his intentions to seek the office. Rossi had one important thing McKenna doesn't, though. Looks. Let's face it, Rossi only did so well because he was a handsome young man up against an ugly old woman. McKenna is an ugly nerd with glasses. It's not something I base my vote on, but considering how shallow your average swing voter is, it's definitely something worth considering. Sonntag is the only Democrat I'd be confident with against McKenna. Though the other mentioned names (Inslee, for example) would also have a good chance (though it's a risk I'd rather not take). I doubt Reed is popular enough with Republicans to make it past the primary and we just saw Sutherland go down this month. Allan Martin was an extremely strong candidate for an open office and he lost (and McIntire did pretty well in some traditionally Democratic areas for such a close election, surprisingly).

Yes.  This is very clear when you look at the representation in the state legislative districts underlying the 8th Congressional District.  There are almost no Republicans left, which is why the Dems keep trying so hard in the 8th, thus far without success.  Maybe Rodney Tom will take a crack next time.  I think Reichert is destined to go the way of Chris Shays.

IMO, the radical right statewide candidates the GOP ran in major races in 1996-2000 --  Ellen Craswell, Linda Smith and John Carlson -- helped turn the suburbs away from the GOP, especially due to social issues.  Then Bush caused the bottom to fall out.  Rossi's views were similar, but he was a better campaigner and better at hiding it.  However, he too cratered in the suburbs this time.  Some of it was due to Obama, but I also noticed a strong late swing among women voters to Gregoire in 2008.  I would hypothesize her attack ads on Rossi's social views may have had an impact.  Perhaps they were also unimpressed with his sham of a transportation plan.

McKenna has a strong chance to win the governor's race in 2012.  With his main rival now out of the way, look for him to consolidate party control over the next 4 years.  Nevertheless, the current state of the WA GOP is terrible:

--With Gregoire's victory, the WA Dems will hold the Governor's Mansion for 28 years.

--Congressional Representation:  6 D, 3 R

--Partisan Statewide Offices Held by Democrats [8]:  Both U.S. Senate Seats, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Treasurer, Auditor, Insurance Commissioner, Lands Commissioner.

--Partisan Statewide Offices Held by Republicans (2):  Attorney General, Secretary of State.

I wonder what sacrificial lamb candidate they will run again Patty Murray in 2010?
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bgwah
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« Reply #495 on: November 21, 2008, 01:39:57 AM »

Maybe they just wanted to keep the map looking neat and tidy.

It's an out of date map. Clallam and Mason have actually flipped to Rossi. Clallam is, of course, normally Republican with such statewide numbers. Mason isn't, and goes along with Cowlitz in lean D counties that Gregoire lost.

What are the odds that the Dems ever get a good candidate against Reichert? (not that this means they would win, which might depend a lot on the environment)  Burner performed worse than Ross did, which is hilarious in many ways.

Burner collapsed at the end because of some silly scandal where she said "major" instead of minor," basically. As for your question, one thing that's important to note is that following Democratic gains in the state legislature in 2004 and 2006, there are many more Democratic state legislators in the 8th district now than there were in 2004 (when Reichert first ran.) Basically there are many more potential challengers who could actually defeat Reichert now. Rodney Tom would be a strong challenger and was going to run for the seat before dropping out and letting Burner have the Democratic nomination. A real shame, too, since he would have actually won the seat.
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Sbane
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« Reply #496 on: November 21, 2008, 01:48:03 AM »

That Reichert seat reminds me of my own district the 11th, a mix of wealthy social liberals and more conservative exurbians. But I guess Reichert isn't a total sh**t for brains like Pombo was. If the dems couldn't win that seat this year, they probably aren't winning it against Reichert.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #497 on: November 21, 2008, 11:06:44 AM »

That Reichert seat reminds me of my own district the 11th, a mix of wealthy social liberals and more conservative exurbians. But I guess Reichert isn't a total sh**t for brains like Pombo was. If the dems couldn't win that seat this year, they probably aren't winning it against Reichert.

Reichert is definitely not Pombo.  Pombo used to fit that CD decently, but it trended left and he was a standard conservative Republican.  Reichert is much closer to the middle, and fits this CD a good bit better, which is one of the reasons why I wonder how he'd fare should a decent environment arise (which he hasn't had since running, except 2004, but he wasn't an incumbent then).  Granted, Burner was always a terrible challenger, but still..

My comparison here is Kirk (IL-10) who pulled over 60% in the Republican favorable environments of 2002 and 2004 as an incumbent.  Not that I necessarily think Reichert could get there, as Kirk has pulled 53% and 55% these last two years against a Burner-like opponent, but it's something to think about.
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Meeker
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« Reply #498 on: November 21, 2008, 06:45:35 PM »

It currently looks like the race for the newly created King County Elections Director will be between Jason Osgood and Pam Roach. This has to be some sort of cruel sick joke. We're being Punk'd, right?
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bgwah
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« Reply #499 on: November 21, 2008, 06:59:21 PM »

It currently looks like the race for the newly created King County Elections Director will be between Jason Osgood and Pam Roach. This has to be some sort of cruel sick joke. We're being Punk'd, right?

No. Noooo. NOoooOoooooooOoooooOOoooooooOoOoooo. Worst. election. ever. Just thinking about it makes me want to die.
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