Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 837185 times)
Alcon
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« Reply #450 on: November 09, 2008, 12:31:34 AM »

Pierce County ballot release tonight was really Republican, like Obama +5 at best, bringing the second wave ballots down to about Obama +8.  If that pattern continues, the county is going to tighten to single digits.

King County dump was slightly better for the GOP, but probably not enough to bring Obama under 70%.  Sutherland is looking a little closer to being hosed, principally because of this.

Meeker, to answer your question: McChord (28-467) is 62-38 McCain now, and was 72-27 Bush in 2004.  In 2004, Fort Lewis (now 51-48 Obama) was 59-40 Bush.  Smaller swing than I remembered, but still pretty big.

Governor
Auburn: 51-49 Rossi
Bonney Lake: 56-44 Rossi
Buckley: 52-48 Rossi
Carbonado: 66-34 Rossi
DuPont: 54-46 Rossi
Eatonville: 55-45 Rossi
Edgewood: 52-48 Rossi
Fife: 55-45 Gregoire
Fircrest: 58-42 Gregoire
Gig Harbor: 52-48 Rossi
Lakewood: 54-46 Gregoire
Milton: 51-49 Gregoire
Orting: 54-46 Rossi
Pacific: 57-43 Rossi
Puyallup: 51-49 Gregoire
Roy: 61-39 Rossi
Ruston: 60-40 Gregoire
South Prairie: 53-47 Gregoire
Steilacoom: 50-50 Gregoire
Sumner: 51-49 Gregoire
Tacoma: 64-36 Gregoire
University Place: 56-44 Gregoire
Wilkeson: 50-50 Rossi

LDs
2nd: 57-43 Rossi
25th: 51-49 Rossi
26th: 53-47 Rossi
27th: 65-35 Gregoire
28th: 54-46 Gregoire
29th: 62-38 Gregoire
31st: 54-46 Rossi
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bgwah
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« Reply #451 on: November 09, 2008, 12:41:29 AM »

The Seattle Times has officially declared Reichert the winner. They don't mention that they're the reason he won, though. Tongue

Oh well, the Times also took down Doug Sutherland, so at least it's somewhat even. Wink
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Alcon
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« Reply #452 on: November 09, 2008, 01:02:24 AM »

Preliminary (although not really that far from done) Snoho results:

Arlington: 54-45 Obama (45-53)
Bothell: 62-37 Obama (55-44)
Brier: 64-35 Obama (57-42)
Darrington: 53-45 Obama (45-53)
Edmonds: 66-33 Obama (60-39)
Everett: 64-34 Obama (58-41)
Gold Bar: 53-44 Obama (49-49)
Granite Falls: 56-41 Obama (51-46)
Index: 83-18 Obama (76-23)
Lake Stevens: 57-42 Obama (49-50)
Lynnwood: 66-32 Obama (61-38)
Marysville: 55-43 Obama (48-51)
Mill Creek: 57-42 Obama (48-51)
Monroe: 55-43 Obama (46-52)
Mountlake Terrace: 70-28 Obama (64-35)
Mukilteo: 63-36 Obama (54-45)
Snohomish: 59-39 Obama (52-46)
Stanwood: 49-49 McCain (45-54)
Sultan: 52-46 Obama (44-54)
Woodway: 52-48 Obama (45-54)
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Alcon
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« Reply #453 on: November 10, 2008, 11:43:16 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2008, 11:46:23 PM by Alcon »

I think there's a chance that Seattle beat San Francisco.  A good chance, in fact.

Congressional district 7 returns:

Obama 120,114 (84.60%)
McCain 20,131 (14.18%)
Other 1,734 (1.22%)

Margin: Obama +70.4%

Now, at the time, Obama's margin was 44.3%.  It's likely to decline to about 42.0% if Obama holds up well in late-late KingCo returns.  I'll assume a decline of 2.3% or so.

Now, in 2004, WA-7 was Kerry +60.1.  Meanwhile, Seattle was Kerry +62.6.

That puts Seattle at about Obama +70.6%.  San Francisco, returns show, is currently Obama +70.2%.  Plenty of things could notch Seattle down a bit, but these early returns indicate Seattle is favored.
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ottermax
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« Reply #454 on: November 11, 2008, 01:23:19 AM »

How did WA-3 vote? (Or the district that has Olympia+Vancouver+Lewis Co., I believe)

Seattle loves Obama, no surprise... did any precincts vote for McCain?
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Alcon
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« Reply #455 on: November 11, 2008, 01:34:54 AM »

How did WA-3 vote? (Or the district that has Olympia+Vancouver+Lewis Co., I believe)

Yeah, it is, although parts of the Olympia metroplex are in WA-9.

In either case, results aren't totally finalized, and I have no break-down for Skamania County (the Underwood area is in WA-4), but my results currently have Obama defeating McCain about 54% to 44%.

Seattle loves Obama, no surprise... did any precincts vote for McCain?

Unfortunately, it will be December until King County precinct results are out.  Obama's trouble spots are precincts 1992 (Broadmoor Country Club) and 1818 (Madison Park retirement condos).  Broadmoor went from 2-to-1 Bush in 2000 to about 57% Bush in 2004, and was a virtual tie in the primary.  But there is a rock-solid GOP base here, and McCain is a good candidate for the country club set.  So is Obama.  On the other hand, Obama risks losing some Clintonites in 1818, and there's hardcore GOP bedrock there.  There's also a Windermere waterfront precinct McGavick flipped that will likely go Obama, but other than that, it's slim pickings for the GOP.

Obama stands a chance at winning both, but I'm not sure it's likely.
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Alcon
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« Reply #456 on: November 12, 2008, 01:18:07 AM »
« Edited: November 12, 2008, 01:26:13 AM by Alcon »

Preliminary Snohomish map

I say preliminary for two important reasons:

1. My shapefile is from 2007; some precincts have been created/destroyed

2. These results are from Friday, and Obama has lost a few points (and inevitably a few precincts) -- but overall it's pretty accurate.  Obama's margin will probably decline +2.0%-2.5% from this map, but that's not going to change it drastically.

Grey indicates no votes cast, or too few votes to protect voter privacy.



For those less familiar with the area:

Labeled version of above
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Meeker
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« Reply #457 on: November 12, 2008, 01:33:21 AM »

Which precincts are within the Tulalip Reservation?
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Alcon
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« Reply #458 on: November 12, 2008, 01:55:55 AM »
« Edited: November 12, 2008, 02:15:56 AM by Alcon »

Which precincts are within the Tulalip Reservation?

Tulalip 1-4, Tulalip 5 (minus some industrial land), Shelton (minus one arbitrary block), Millard, Boeing, Coho, Tyee, Priest Point

See how you can draw a clean line at the top of the 38th LD, and then another along I-5?  Excluding the aforementioned area, that's all rez land.  There are tons of non-whites all over.  The Tulalip CDP is actually approaching 3/4 white, and it doesn't even include the even-whiter land in the non-"Tulalip" precincts.  The rest is a lot of downscale whites and terrible McMansions avoiding county land restrictions.  It's pretty awful.

The "Tulalip" precincts (especially the waterfront ones, 1 & 2) have a ton of affluent waterfront whites.  Tulalip 2 & Priest Point are a mix of poor Indians and rich whites (although the latter is heavily white), Tulalip 3-5 and the rest are a mix of Indians and the aforementioned awful areas.  I'm pretty sure all are at least 65% white, although Tulalip 2 may be a bit more diverse.

That area is not as ridiculously un-Indian as the Port Madison Reservation in Kitsap County (Suquamish is like 12% Indian at most), but it's up there.
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Alcon
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« Reply #459 on: November 12, 2008, 02:03:39 AM »
« Edited: November 12, 2008, 02:07:49 AM by Alcon »

God, I can't believe I stayed up this late.

Spokane County, which is like 95% counted:



Labeled version, for those having trouble finding Spokane or something.

John Kerry's losing Cheney truly was a remarkable achievement.

Anyway, remind me to do Gov when Spokane is finished and also an Obama v. Gregoire map.  There's some weirdness there.
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Alcon
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« Reply #460 on: November 12, 2008, 06:04:45 PM »

New shading for Snohomish:

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CultureKing
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« Reply #461 on: November 12, 2008, 11:21:58 PM »

God, I can't believe I stayed up this late.

Spokane County, which is like 95% counted:



Labeled version, for those having trouble finding Spokane or something.

John Kerry's losing Cheney truly was a remarkable achievement.

Anyway, remind me to do Gov when Spokane is finished and also an Obama v. Gregoire map.  There's some weirdness there.

Cool, I can tell which precinct is Gonzaga. (Hint it is one of the Obama > 70% precincts)
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Bacon King
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« Reply #462 on: November 14, 2008, 02:40:29 AM »

Loving the maps, Alcon. Smiley
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Alcon
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« Reply #463 on: November 14, 2008, 04:22:02 PM »
« Edited: November 14, 2008, 04:31:38 PM by Alcon »

New Snoho in red (old on left, 2004 in parentheses):

Arlington: 54-45 Obama (45-53) 52-46 Obama
Bothell: 62-37 Obama (55-44) 60-38 Obama
Brier: 64-35 Obama (57-42) 63-36 Obama
Darrington: 53-45 Obama (45-53) 53-44 Obama
Edmonds: 66-33 Obama (60-39) 65-34 Obama
Everett: 64-34 Obama (58-41) 63-35 Obama
Gold Bar: 53-44 Obama (49-49) 52-45 Obama
Granite Falls: 56-41 Obama (51-46) 56-41 Obama
Index: 83-18 Obama (76-23) 78-21 Obama
Lake Stevens: 57-42 Obama (49-50) 56-42 Obama
Lynnwood: 66-32 Obama (61-38) 65-33 Obama
Marysville: 55-43 Obama (48-51) 54-44 Obama
Mill Creek: 57-42 Obama (48-51) 57-42 Obama
Monroe: 55-43 Obama (46-52) 52-46 Obama
Mountlake Terrace: 70-28 Obama (64-35) 69-29 Obama
Mukilteo: 63-36 Obama (54-45) 62-37 Obama
Snohomish: 59-39 Obama (52-46) 58-40 Obama
Stanwood: 49-49 McCain (45-54) 50-49 McCain
Sultan: 52-46 Obama (44-54) 50-48 Obama
Woodway: 52-48 Obama (45-54) 53-47 Obama

I'll make a map when they're totally done (10,000 more ballots to go)

Governor for the same:

Arlington: 53-47 Rossi
Bothell: 53-47 Gregoire
Brier: 56-44 Gregoire
Darrington: 53-47 Rossi
Edmonds: 60-40 Gregoire
Everett: 58-42 Gregoire
Gold Bar: 51-49 Gregoire
Granite Falls: Tie
Index: 73-27 Gregoire
Lake Stevens: 51-49 Rossi
Lynnwood: 60-40 Gregoire
Marysville: 51-49 Rossi
Mill Creek: 51-49 Rossi
Monroe: 54-46 Rossi
Mountlake Terrace: 63-37 Gregoire
Mukilteo: 54-46 Gregoire
Snohomish: 52-48 Gregoire
Stanwood: 54-46 Rossi
Sultan: 53-47 Rossi
Woodway: 55-45 Rossi
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Meeker
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« Reply #464 on: November 14, 2008, 06:25:48 PM »

What makes Index so Democratic?
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Alcon
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« Reply #465 on: November 14, 2008, 07:57:40 PM »
« Edited: February 28, 2014, 04:19:29 AM by Grad Students are the Worst »


Index is a resort town, but a weird one.  It's tiny, so there's not any service industry (one Korean market).  Basically it's a few hundred semi-hippies who just decided to live in nature, or something.  Either way, the presidential results deceptively under-rate its liberalness.  Back in the 90s, Index easily passed the gay discrimination initiative that failed miserably with over 60% (Seattle barely passed it), and also voted to decriminalize Schedule I narcotics, which even failed in Seattle.

It's also maybe one of the prettiest places in the state.

Down Highway 2 back into King County, there's a twinned town called Skykomish that votes similarly, although less Democratic.  It's totally different, though; it's a socially conservative old rail town.  It's also pretty unpleasant (in part because it's all torn up right now, but still, kind of a depressing place.)

Skykomish may be almost as Democratic, but its politics are way different:  It failed the King County Charter Amendment against gay discrimination that broke 70% countywide this year.
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Alcon
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« Reply #466 on: November 14, 2008, 08:24:58 PM »
« Edited: November 14, 2008, 10:26:42 PM by Alcon »

Thurston County has been slowly drifting up toward 60%, and now stands at 59.996% Obama with about 7,000 ballots to go.  Counter to what I'd have thought, these super late ballots appear to be some of the most Democratic so far statewide.  I guess the expatriots are outvoting the military people.  (These are all international mail except for slow-counters like Pierce, right?  Why else would it take over a week for mail to arrive?)

Klickitat County reports that it's out of ballots, and Obama's lead has now gradually ticked up to an all-time high of 20 votes.  He probably has that.  Wahkiakum is the last question mark, my guess is still a flip to McCain.  It hasn't reported since counting every ballot the night of.  Obama led then, 1,112 to 1,100.

Edit: I don't get it.  I'd think at least some of these would be military ballots, yet today's Pierce County load was over 60% Obama.  Huh
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Meeker
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« Reply #467 on: November 14, 2008, 11:29:04 PM »
« Edited: November 14, 2008, 11:30:35 PM by VP Meeker »

King and Pierce haven't actually received any ballots in several days. The ballots remaining are either provisional ballots or ballots that have been filled out incorrectly - ballots which, as we're learning in Minnesota, lean heavily Democratic.
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Alcon
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« Reply #468 on: November 14, 2008, 11:33:54 PM »

Ahh, ok.  That explains why "Other" is getting like 6% daily.  I gather provisional/question voters tend to be Democrats and/or total idiots

Are all 36,000 of King and 17,500 of Pierce provisionals/screw-ups?  That seems pretty high.
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Meeker
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« Reply #469 on: November 14, 2008, 11:37:10 PM »

Ahh, ok.  That explains why "Other" is getting like 6% daily.

Are all 36,000 of King and 17,500 of Pierce provisionals/screw-ups?  That seems pretty high.

I know in Pierce they are (RCV + lots of new voters = Hell for the Auditors office). Not quite sure about King, but the new voter surge may have caused that many.

You'll also notice that the number of ballots being reported daily has drastically decreased (Pierce only reported something like 2500 today). The same thing is causing this - it's taking them a long time to fill out replacement ballots.
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Alcon
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« Reply #470 on: November 14, 2008, 11:40:54 PM »

Oh.  This all makes sense.  It would be nice to have a break-down of how many RCV ballots are remaining vs. normal ballots.

So, McCarthy probably won, then?  And the latest TNT article implied that Washram won today's run, I think, although it was unclear if they were just reporting that he has a plurality, or both.

I bet the can't-fill-out-a-ballot-correctly vote was pretty lucrative for Washram.
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Meeker
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« Reply #471 on: November 14, 2008, 11:59:27 PM »

I'm *pretty* sure McCarthy has won. Lonergan's second preferences are breaking for Bunney at a much higher rate than they used to be (which is causing it to tighten more than I expected), but I don't think it'll be enough.

Also, the remaining ballots will be more Democratic overall, meaning more combined votes for Goings and McCarthy. However, these ballots were cast by people who were clearly confused by the system or had never experienced voting before, so I suspect the drop-off in people filling out second preferences will go up. So while Goings and McCarthy combined will get more votes in this remaining batch, Bunney may get more votes out of it overall due to Goings voters not bothering or understanding how to indicate McCarthy was their second choice.

The Assesor-Treasurer's race is still a free-for-all. I have a difficult time seeing a situation whereby Shabro wins, but Washam, Gelman and Lee all have a good shot at it. There's no way we'll be able to tell until the very last ballots are counted though - fifty to a hundred votes could drastically change the outcome.
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Meeker
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« Reply #472 on: November 18, 2008, 07:22:33 PM »

When's the last time a Democrat won Okanogan County but not Pierce?
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Alcon
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« Reply #473 on: November 18, 2008, 08:10:24 PM »
« Edited: November 18, 2008, 08:13:00 PM by Alcon »

When's the last time a Democrat won Okanogan County but not Pierce?

1964 Secretary of State, maybe the weirdest modern result I've ever seen.

Before then, a smattering of offices in 1916 (Lt. Governor, Attorney General, State Auditor), and the 1912 Presidential.

I'm pretty impressed Goldmark won.  He lost in the primary (usually where being local matters more) and did pretty awful in other counties with big timber.  But Okanogan is trending hard, and I guess Goldmark has the name ID there.  Still a bit of a coup.

The Democrats are going to have to hit their ceiling eventually in Okanogan.  There's no way that they can maintain these big yearly trends.  There's only so many votes in the Mazama Valley...I think Tongue

Then again, I wouldn't have expected it to be the second-biggest trender this year after 2004's huge swing.
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« Reply #474 on: November 19, 2008, 08:18:10 PM »

When's the last time a Democrat won Okanogan County but not Pierce?

1964 Secretary of State, maybe the weirdest modern result I've ever seen.

What was with that?
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