Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Meeker]

I also have a feeling that the Pierce County results are going to be more Democratic than the last few batches. Not as Democratic as the initial batch though.

[Alcon]

I also have a feeling that the Pierce County results are going to be more Democratic than the last few batches. Not as Democratic as the initial batch though.

I have a feeling you may be right.

Every single second-wave release so far today (Adams, Grant, King, Skagit, Whatcom, and Whitman, Yakima) has been better for Obama, and even moreso the down-ticket Democrats, than the initial results.  No idea why.  McCain may even fall under 40%, at this rate (maybe.)

But, seriously, if these sorts of numbers hold up in the Puget Sound, the Washington GOP is officially no longer a viable political party.  Gregoire is now projecting as beating Kerry's margin by nearly half a point.  That has to sting for the GOP.

[Meeker]

The AP just called the race for Goldmark!

And Bergeson has conceded

[Alcon]

(Blog copy)

Model A: "Dumb" model (no late ballot effect)
Model B: Old model (Republican adjustment method)
Model C: New model (New ballot extrapolation method)

Other than prez, Model C still could use some more information, but it's solid enough.  It's the best one.

President
Model A: Obama +19.14 -0.65
Model B: Obama +16.37 +0.04
Model C: Obama +17.83 +0.07

Governor
Model A: Gregoire +9.07 -0.75
Model B: Gregoire +6.31 -0.01
Model C: Gregoire +7.67

State Treasurer
Model A: McIntire +4.66 -1.09
Model B: McIntire +1.96 +0.08
Model C: McIntire +2.65

Commissioner of Public Lands
Model A: Goldmark +2.90 -0.86
Model B: Goldmark +0.22 +0.28
Model C: Goldmark +1.40

U.S. Congress - Dist. 8 (still not comfortable)
Model A: Reichert +1.48
Model B: Reichert +8.73 (lol, what can you do?)
Model C: Pending

All in all, we’re probably look at about Obama +17.5,  Gregoire +7.5, McIntire +2.5 and Goldmark +1.5.  I think, in pretty much every case, a slightly closer race (due to late absentees) is more likely than bigger Democratic margins.  I can’t promise anything, though.

Reichert looks pretty solid in WA-8 at first, but I want to give Model C a go when Pierce and King release new information tomorrow.  Why?  Because the late ballot effect seems much less pronounced here (especially King), and accordingly Reichert +8.7 is utterly ridiculous.

[Meeker]

The release from Pierce County today still had a chunk of poll votes (I had thought they were done with those). Here on out will be absentee though, so now we'll be able to see if the Republican-gain-in-late-absentees trend continues.

Pierce also only counted something along the line of 27,000 ballots today. And there's still at least 150,000 left.

[Alcon]

Not sure what way the poll votes are going to cut, though.

In the February primary, 59% of absentee voters voted Democratic compared to only 45% of poll voters.

In the August primary, Gregoire got 48% of absentee voters and 45% of poll voters.

Of course, dramatically different turnout situation...in a General, poll voters are probably more Democratic, you think?

[Meeker]

Poll voters have always been more Republican for as long as I can recall... were they in the 2004 general?

[Alcon]

Poll voters have always been more Republican for as long as I can recall... were they in the 2004 general?

I don't have the 2004 data file anymore, which sucks, because it cost $20.  I'll have to trust you on them being more GOP.  It sounds plausible.

If they're still more Republican, and that last batch was absentees+them, very good news for Democrats in Pierce County races.

Would also help explain why Marilyn Rasmussen is down.

[ottermax]

Pierce county is taking forever. I hope Burner pulls it off. We will just have to sit and wait.

[Meeker]

Reichert now leads in King. I think she's done for.

[Alcon]

Yeah, the latest King County batch was def. on the Republican side.  McCain actually got 31.2% of it (!!!!!!!!111~~).  Unless King goes back to more more-Democratic-than-before batches (wonder what that was) Burner is done for.  Although she probably is either way.

The CPL call was a mite premature, imho.

[Meeker]

Burner's margin continues to deteriorate. Oh well, wonder who we'll get to run next time...

[Alcon]

Burner = doomed

Model A: Reichert +3.1
Model B: Reichert +9.2
Model C: Reichert +5.3

Probably won't even be especially close.  Rodney Tom?  Can't believe the WA Dems nominated her again.

[Alcon]

Early results show that McCain did not break 33% in the 48th.  Words fail.

That's an 18-point swing from 2004 in a suburban district.  Tentatively, the 5th swung 15 points; the 45th swung 16.

This is an area where Bush generally declined between '00 and '04, and that trended Democratic during the 1990s.  This is also a very polarized area.  That's just all-around pretty incredible.

[Meeker]

Bunney has narrowed the margin significantly. Crap.

And local crazy Dale Washam is somehow now poised to win the Assesor-Treasurer race. WTF?

[Meeker]

Walsham is a local crazy who's been running for office for years. Never won anything (Thank God for it).

It's easy to see why he's winning based on the Voters' Pamphlet statements though - he effectively promises to cut or halt increases in property taxes.

[bgwah]

Haha, 41% McCain in the 5th district! Owned. I hope my precinct hits 70%.

[Alcon]

Newest King County bump was good for Burner.  Not good enough.  We've had five Kingco waves, and all of the remaining ballots would have to be 40% better for Burner than the best of those.  Reichert wins.

Can't believe the AP called CPL way before this race, but whatever

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Burner has conceded, apparently. Maybe she should try the state legislature next time.

[Alcon]

Early PierceCo numbers (this will become more GOP).  Includes only Pierce County portions (which is like 20 votes in Pacific), does not include consolidations.  Kerry in parentheses.

Municipality
Auburn: 55-44 Obama (49-51)
Bonney Lake: 51-48 Obama (46-52)
Buckley: 48-48 Obama (46-53)
Carbonado: 61-36 McCain (34-63)
DuPont: 50-49 Obama (41-57)
Eatonville: 49-49 McCain (43-56)
Edgewood: 51-47 Obama (47-51)
Fife: 61-37 Obama (57-42)
Fircrest: 61-38 Obama (54-45)
Gig Harbor: 53-46 Obama (46-53)
Lakewood: 56-42 Obama (51-48)
Milton: 55-44 Obama (51-48)
Orting: 50-48 Obama (45-53)
Pacific: 52-48 Obama (37-63)
Puyallup: 54-44 Obama (48-51)
Roy: 57-39 McCain (38-62)
Ruston: 66-32 Obama (63-33)
South Prairie: 52-48 McCain (46-51)
Steilacoom: 52-46 Obama (49-49)
Sumner: 55-43 Obama (52-47)
Tacoma: 68-30 Obama (62-37)
University Place: 59-40 Obama (52-47)
Wilkeson: 49-48 Obama (52-46)

LD
2nd: 50-48 McCain (42-56)
25th: 53-45 Obama (47-52)
26th: 52-47 Obama (46-53)
27th: 69-30 Obama (63-36)
28th: 56-42 Obama (50-49)
29th: 64-34 Obama (59-40)
31st: 51-47 Obama (46-53)

Predictably, McCain just lost it in the middle-class suburbs here too.

[Alcon]

Huh:

Fort Lewis Army Base (28-465 & 28-469)
Barack Obama 525 (50.68%)
John McCain 497 (47.97%)
Bob Barr 5 (0.48%)
Chuck Baldwin 4 (0.39%)
Ralph Nader 2 (0.19%)
Gloria La Riva 2 (0.19%)
James Harris 1 (0.10%)

[Meeker]

What about the McChord precinct?

And can you do that for Gregoire/Rossi?

[CultureKing]

Huh:

Fort Lewis Army Base (28-465 & 28-469)
Barack Obama 525 (50.68%)
John McCain 497 (47.97%)
Bob Barr 5 (0.48%)
Chuck Baldwin 4 (0.39%)
Ralph Nader 2 (0.19%)
Gloria La Riva 2 (0.19%)
James Harris 1 (0.10%)

Are those the voters for the entire base? I feel like there should be alot more...

[Alcon]

What about the McChord precinct?

And can you do that for Gregoire/Rossi?

Sure, I'll be happy to when I get home.

McChord was like 61% McCain, and I'm pretty sure Bush broke 70% in a walk.  I'll check.

Are those the voters for the entire base? I feel like there should be alot more...

Transitory population.  Many vote at home, many don't vote.  Besides, we're only half counted or so.

[Meeker]

I'm doing County Executive stuff that only Alcon and I will care about, but hopefully I'll have that done tonight or early tomorrow morning.