Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 837148 times)
bgwah
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« Reply #350 on: October 22, 2008, 05:30:04 PM »

Back to my Sonntag question--if Rossi wins this year do you guys think it's likely that he would run in 2012? It would help me sleep at night knowing it was only a matter of time before he destroyed that slimy little prick. Smiley

He's definitely going to run. That's the only reason he's been putting out signs and billboards and crap this year.

Inslee, of course, will also run.

Blah, Inslee should stick to Congress.
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Frodo
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« Reply #351 on: October 22, 2008, 09:54:01 PM »
« Edited: October 22, 2008, 09:55:33 PM by Frodo »

You all are talking (well, typing) as if Governor Gregoire is doomed to defeat (at least coming up with scenarios involving Dino Rossi as a possible rising star for GOP hopes in 2012).  Is she?  I haven't seen any new polls out, but the most recent one I thought I have seen has her leading by about 1% -basically a dead-heat. 
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Daniel Z
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« Reply #352 on: October 22, 2008, 10:07:43 PM »

You all are talking (well, typing) as if Governor Gregoire is doomed to defeat (at least coming up with scenarios involving Dino Rossi as a possible rising star for GOP hopes in 2012).  Is she?  I haven't seen any new polls out, but the most recent one I thought I have seen has her leading by about 1% -basically a dead-heat. 

The latest poll that had Gregoire by 1 also had Obama by 16. If Rossi is really running 15 point ahead of McCain, Gregoire is indeed doomed. Plus every other tv ad is a Rossi ad. I think Rossi would be more credible in 2016 if he wins reelection.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #353 on: October 22, 2008, 11:51:48 PM »

It honestly depends on how well Obama performs here.  I certainly hope Rossi wins (looks at signature).
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bgwah
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« Reply #354 on: October 23, 2008, 12:31:12 AM »

You all are talking (well, typing) as if Governor Gregoire is doomed to defeat (at least coming up with scenarios involving Dino Rossi as a possible rising star for GOP hopes in 2012).  Is she?  I haven't seen any new polls out, but the most recent one I thought I have seen has her leading by about 1% -basically a dead-heat. 

The latest poll that had Gregoire by 1 also had Obama by 16. If Rossi is really running 15 point ahead of McCain, Gregoire is indeed doomed. Plus every other tv ad is a Rossi ad. I think Rossi would be more credible in 2016 if he wins reelection.

Really? I think Gregoire is more like to win under Obama +10 as opposed to Obama +15.
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bgwah
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« Reply #355 on: October 23, 2008, 02:45:41 AM »

Burner up 50-46 in latest SUSA poll.

I don't really believe it, but perhaps this race will be closer than I thought.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #356 on: October 23, 2008, 09:10:52 AM »

You all are talking (well, typing) as if Governor Gregoire is doomed to defeat (at least coming up with scenarios involving Dino Rossi as a possible rising star for GOP hopes in 2012).  Is she?  I haven't seen any new polls out, but the most recent one I thought I have seen has her leading by about 1% -basically a dead-heat. 

The latest poll that had Gregoire by 1 also had Obama by 16. If Rossi is really running 15 point ahead of McCain, Gregoire is indeed doomed. Plus every other tv ad is a Rossi ad. I think Rossi would be more credible in 2016 if he wins reelection.

Really? I think Gregoire is more like to win under Obama +10 as opposed to Obama +15.

Do explain.
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bgwah
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« Reply #357 on: October 23, 2008, 02:42:51 PM »

You all are talking (well, typing) as if Governor Gregoire is doomed to defeat (at least coming up with scenarios involving Dino Rossi as a possible rising star for GOP hopes in 2012).  Is she?  I haven't seen any new polls out, but the most recent one I thought I have seen has her leading by about 1% -basically a dead-heat. 

The latest poll that had Gregoire by 1 also had Obama by 16. If Rossi is really running 15 point ahead of McCain, Gregoire is indeed doomed. Plus every other tv ad is a Rossi ad. I think Rossi would be more credible in 2016 if he wins reelection.

Really? I think Gregoire is more like to win under Obama +10 as opposed to Obama +15.

Do explain.

The less young anti-old voters that show up, the better for Gregoire. And better for McCain, too, but he doesn't really have a chance regardless of that.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #358 on: October 24, 2008, 12:42:13 AM »
« Edited: October 24, 2008, 02:01:52 AM by Ogre Mage »

On another note, I noticed that Gregoire is winning the newspaper endorsement war this time.  Besides the Spokane Spokesman-Review, she also was endorsed by The Everett Herald, The Tacoma News Tribune and The Columbian (in Vancouver, WA) -- three of the biggest cities in Washington located in Snohomish, Pierce and Clark counties -- key areas in a statewide race.  These endorsements are reversals from 2004.  The Seattle PI and The Olympian reprised their endorsement of Gregoire.

Rossi got the endorsement of the state's biggest paper, The Seattle Times, which should be renamed The Estate Tax Times since that is their litmus test for endorsement.
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Alcon
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« Reply #359 on: October 24, 2008, 11:22:06 AM »

Turnout:

King................15%
Pierce..............10.5%*
Snohomish...........10.5% (without Oct. 23 numbers)
Spokane.............21%
Clark...............16%
Yakima..............22%
Kittitas............23%

* - Likely lags due to RCV
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Alcon
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« Reply #360 on: October 27, 2008, 03:25:33 PM »

UW poll, 10/18-26, 600 RV

Obama 55%, McCain 34%

Gregoire 51%, Rossi 46%

Initiative 1000 ("Death with Dignity") leads 56% to 38%

Initiative 985 (Eyman's congestion thing) leads 45% to 43%

Initiative 1029 (SEIU's homecare training thing) leads 65% to 20% (which may be the best-performing initiative I ever vote 'no' on)

Sound Transit proposition (what's the sample size on that?) leads 50% to 43%

The UW poll actually did kind of OK in 2006, better than I expected.  It predicted the initiatives fairly well.  I think we can pretty clearly say that I-1000 is passing, I-1029 is passing, and I-985 is a toss-up.
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Meeker
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« Reply #361 on: October 27, 2008, 03:28:21 PM »

I-1029 is pretty terrible. Oh well.
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Alcon
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« Reply #362 on: October 27, 2008, 03:33:35 PM »

To answer my own rhetorical question, +/-6.7%.  lol.

Yeah, I get the impression that people think I-1029 sounds good (which it does) and the only voters who are going "no" are the staunch anti-government types, always-vote-noers, and the few people who read newspapers enough to know how badly it will screw over folks with autistic kids.  Bleh.

I'm also a little disappointed that Eyman's thing is passing in a poll with a pretty clear left-ward tilt.  If Prop. 1 fails and that passes, I may have to get out the punching pillow.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #363 on: October 27, 2008, 03:59:22 PM »
« Edited: October 27, 2008, 04:06:38 PM by Ogre Mage »

I had a very difficult time with I-1029, so much so that I did not vote on it.  On one hand, I feel that if we had some manna from heaven funding source it would be a good investment.  But in this economic environment I just don't feel comfortable with another mandate lacking a realistic and defined funding source.  Senior care is important but sadly there are other priorities I would put first.  Where are we going to get the money for this?

If those Gregoire/Rossi numbers are accurate I would be very happy.  Unfortunately, I think the race is slightly closer than that.
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bgwah
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« Reply #364 on: October 27, 2008, 04:49:34 PM »

I-985 doesn't seem like something that should be a statewide initiative.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #365 on: October 27, 2008, 05:36:47 PM »
« Edited: October 27, 2008, 05:39:02 PM by Ogre Mage »

Breaking News -- Judge rules Rossi must give a deposition about Buildergate BEFORE the election.

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http://crosscut.com/blog/crosscut/18603/
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bgwah
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« Reply #366 on: October 27, 2008, 05:40:29 PM »

Bad news for Dino. Something like this normally wouldn't matter, but when it comes to Gregoire vs. Rossi even a few hundred voters changing their minds could decide the election. Tongue
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Nutmeg
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« Reply #367 on: October 27, 2008, 06:37:04 PM »

Is there any way this thread could receive a new title?  The "chaos" has nearly run its course.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #368 on: October 27, 2008, 08:35:24 PM »

Is there any way this thread could receive a new title?  The "chaos" has nearly run its course.

In 2004 the chaos lasted until Spring of 2005 after the election.
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Nutmeg
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« Reply #369 on: October 27, 2008, 09:15:37 PM »

Is there any way this thread could receive a new title?  The "chaos" has nearly run its course.
In 2004 the chaos lasted until Spring of 2005 after the election.

Fingers crossed that it won't happen again.

In other news, there was a segment on this race on the national news this evening (ABC, I think), but it was on in a crowded restaurant where I was having dinner, so I couldn't hear it.  I only caught the part about Rossi's "GOP Party" ploy.
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Meeker
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« Reply #370 on: October 27, 2008, 10:39:11 PM »

Is there any way this thread could receive a new title?  The "chaos" has nearly run its course.

Noted.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #371 on: October 28, 2008, 12:50:39 AM »

I like the title.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #372 on: October 28, 2008, 04:26:09 PM »

My Dad ended a phone call with me today with, "Rossi - GOP in Washington." Pretty random considering he wasn't told of my interest. Then again, my Dad was obsessed with Rossi/the recount fiasco in 2004 (as well as the loss of Tom Daschle).

The movement is spreading...
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CultureKing
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« Reply #373 on: October 28, 2008, 04:54:32 PM »

My Dad ended a phone call with me today with, "Rossi - GOP in Washington." Pretty random considering he wasn't told of my interest. Then again, my Dad was obsessed with Rossi/the recount fiasco in 2004 (as well as the loss of Tom Daschle).

The movement is spreading...

You have given me a new found energy to work against Rossi. Thank you.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #374 on: October 28, 2008, 07:48:57 PM »

My Dad ended a phone call with me today with, "Rossi - GOP in Washington." Pretty random considering he wasn't told of my interest. Then again, my Dad was obsessed with Rossi/the recount fiasco in 2004 (as well as the loss of Tom Daschle).

The movement is spreading...

You have given me a new found energy to work against Rossi. Thank you.

...

I don't know if that was serious or not but if it was, that says a lot about you. I don't even know you and you really don't know me (I can't think of many times when we've ever interacted) but I'm your motivation against a candidate? Sad.
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