Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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bgwah
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« Reply #250 on: September 05, 2008, 08:02:11 PM »

Results from my Sammamish precinct. Gregoire won Smiley

GOVERNOR      
52.58%   102   Gregoire
45.36%   88   Rossi
1.03%   2   Joubert
0.52%   1   Aiken
0.52%   1   Baker
0.00%   0   Tudor
0.00%   0   Badgley
0.00%   0   White
0.00%   0   Lopez
0.00%   0   Said
   194   TOTAL
      
LT. GOVERNOR      
52.78%   95   Owen
31.67%   57   McCraw
11.67%   21   Wiest
3.33%   6   Bell
0.56%   1   Peck
   180   TOTAL
      
ATTORNEY GENERAL      
57.37%   109   McKenna
42.63%   81   Ladenburg
   190   TOTAL
      
COMMISSIONER OF PUBLIC LANDS      
54.91%   95   Goldmark
45.09%   78   Sutherland
   173   TOTAL
      
INSURANCE COMMISSIONER      
58.01%   105   Kriedler
31.49%   57   Adams
10.50%   19   Fackler
   181   TOTAL
      
SECRETARY OF STATE      
59.89%   112   Reed
32.09%   60   Osgood
6.95%   13   Montgomery
1.07%   2   Greene
   187   TOTAL
      
STATE AUDITOR      
63.64%   119   Sonntag
31.55%   59   McEntee
4.81%   9   Freeman
   187   TOTAL
      
STATE TREASURER      
47.34%   89   McIntire
41.49%   78   Martin
11.17%   21   Sohn
   188   TOTAL
      
SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION      
43.31%   68   Bergeson
37.58%   59   Dorn
5.73%   9   Hansler
5.10%   8   Duncan
4.46%   7   Blomstrom
3.82%   6   Blair
   157   TOTAL
         
State Representative #1 Legislative District 5         
55.62%   99   Rodne   R
44.38%   79   Viebrock   D
   178   TOTAL   
         
State Representative #2 Legislative District 5         
61.02%   108   Spring   D
38.98%   69   Anderson   R
   177   TOTAL   
         
State Senate Legislative District 5         
54.30%   101   Pflug   R
45.70%   85   Huster   D
   186   TOTAL   

         
State Supreme Court         
68.49%   100   Fairhurst   
31.51%   46   Bond   
   146   TOTAL   
         
State Supreme Court         
65.94%   91   Johnson   
27.54%   38   Beecher   
6.52%   9   Vulliet   
   138   TOTAL   

U.S. Congressional District 8         
50.79%   96   Burner   D
42.86%   81   Reichert   R
3.70%   7   Vaughn   D
1.59%   3   Arnold   D
1.06%   2   Todd   NP
0.00%   0   Orlinski   NP
   189   TOTAL   
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CultureKing
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« Reply #251 on: September 05, 2008, 09:11:20 PM »

Could you do my precinct? Fry Cove (thurston county) 094
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jimrtex
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« Reply #252 on: September 06, 2008, 01:03:59 AM »

I'd been told that the Tabulator machine separates out any ballots with extraneous marks

That's correct, but at that point they've already been through a hand check and any ballots with potential problems should have been dealt with. There are a very, very small amount that are rejected by the machines, but those are just dealt with by having a substitute ballot sent in its place.
King County reported roughly 2 to 3% write-ins in every legislative race where there was only candidate on the ballot.
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Meeker
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« Reply #253 on: September 06, 2008, 01:16:59 AM »

I'd been told that the Tabulator machine separates out any ballots with extraneous marks

That's correct, but at that point they've already been through a hand check and any ballots with potential problems should have been dealt with. There are a very, very small amount that are rejected by the machines, but those are just dealt with by having a substitute ballot sent in its place.
King County reported roughly 2 to 3% write-ins in every legislative race where there was only candidate on the ballot.


Yes, however, they only count who those write-ins were for if someone has filed a Declaration of Write-In candidacy or if it is clear to election workers that a candidate may make the general election ballot.
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Alcon
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« Reply #254 on: September 06, 2008, 02:12:48 AM »

Could you do my precinct? Fry Cove (thurston county) 094

Candidates receiving 5% or more:

U.S. House of Representatives
Brian Baird (D) 57.1%
Cheryl Crist (D) 17.5%
Michael Delevar (R) 17.2%
Christine Webb (R) 8.2%

Governor
Christine Gregoire (D) 58.3%
Dino Rossi (R) 37.6%

Lt. Governor
Brad Owen (D) 63.1%
Marcia McCraw (R) 15.1%
Jim Wiest (R) 12.6%
Randel Bell (D) 7.4%

Secretary of State
Sam Reed (R) 71.0%
Jason Osgood (D) 23.9%

State Treasurer
Allan Martin (R) 35.4%
Jim McIntire (D) 34.1%
ChangMook Sohn (D) 30.5%

State Auditor
Brian Sonntag (D) 72.2%
Richard McEntee (R) 23.2%

State Attorney General
Rob McKenna (R) 54.2%
John Ladenburg (D) 45.8%

Commissioner of Public Lands
Peter Goldmark (D) 55.5%
Doug Sutherland (R) 44.5%

Superintendent of Public Instruction
Randy Dorn 40.3%
Terry Bergeson 39.7%
Enid Duncan 7.2%
John Patterson Blair 5.9%
Don Hansler 5.9%

Insurance Commissioner
Mike Kriedler (D) 67.2%
John Adams (R) 23.9%
Curtis Fackler (NP) 9.0%

State Rep Pos. 1
Kathy Haigh (D) 70.9%
Marco Brown (R) 16.6%
Brad Gehring (R) 12.6%

State Rep Pos. 2
Fred Finn (D) 59.7%
Randy Neatherlin (R) 21.8%
Darryl Daugs (D) 13.3%
Herb Baze (R) 5.2%

SC Pos. 3
Mary Fairhurst 64.3%
Michael J. Bond 35.7%

SC Pos. 4
Charles Johnson 62.4%
James Beecher 29.1%
Frank Vulliet 8.5%

COP Div 2 Dis 2 Pos 1
Robin Hunt 66.7%
Tim Ford 33.3%

Thurston Superior Court Pos 3
Carol Murphy 56.2%
Charles Williams 43.8%

Thurston Superior Court Pos 7
Gary Tabor 71.6%
Ed Holm 28.4%
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Meeker
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« Reply #255 on: September 06, 2008, 02:26:22 AM »

This primary has given me great hope that Peter Goldmark will be able to win Smiley

But it has also confirmed my suspicion that John Ladenburg is completely f**cked Sad
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Alcon
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« Reply #256 on: September 06, 2008, 02:35:14 AM »

I did a little academic exercise and took the PCO results where there were just a D vs. R, in Kitsap County.  I eliminated rates where one of the candidates was a public figure, which always brings more votes for them.

The result: pretty much identical to 2004, very slightly more Dem.  Same deal in Okanogan County.

So, basically, the superior Dem turnout thing didn't seem to be in play.  In fact, Dem turnout may have been lower -- and that's not even adjusting for low-ish turnout in King County.

I wouldn't bet on Goldmark, but I think he definitely stands a chance.  He's also likely to benefit from Obama on-ticket.  He seems like that kind of candidate.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #257 on: September 06, 2008, 06:21:15 AM »

All ballots are looked at in person before being sent through a machine to avoid a situation like this. There are tables and tables of workers who look at ballots that have been filled out incorrectly and fill out substitute ballots that can be read by the counting machines.
In other words, there is no point whatsoever to machine counting.
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bgwah
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« Reply #258 on: September 06, 2008, 10:52:56 AM »

But it has also confirmed my suspicion that John Ladenburg is completely f**cked Sad


Yeah

but then again, knowing Washington Republicans, you have to figure there is about a 3-4% chance McKenna has a gay sex scandal come out over the next two months, in which case we'll be glad Ladenburg isn't a complete sacrificial lamb. Smiley
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Meeker
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« Reply #259 on: September 06, 2008, 01:56:29 PM »

All ballots are looked at in person before being sent through a machine to avoid a situation like this. There are tables and tables of workers who look at ballots that have been filled out incorrectly and fill out substitute ballots that can be read by the counting machines.
In other words, there is no point whatsoever to machine counting.

No. The workers don't count the ballots, they just look for incorrectly filled out ballots. It's a quick scan of the ballot from top to bottom, takes a few seconds at most.

Counting the ballots by hand would take unbelievably longer.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #260 on: September 06, 2008, 03:43:33 PM »

All ballots are looked at in person before being sent through a machine to avoid a situation like this. There are tables and tables of workers who look at ballots that have been filled out incorrectly and fill out substitute ballots that can be read by the counting machines.
In other words, there is no point whatsoever to machine counting.

No. The workers don't count the ballots, they just look for incorrectly filled out ballots. It's a quick scan of the ballot from top to bottom, takes a few seconds at most.

Counting the ballots by hand would take unbelievably longer.
Oh right, the old problem of having too many different races on the same bit of paper, meaning loads and loads of sorting work.
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bgwah
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« Reply #261 on: September 07, 2008, 05:38:33 PM »

Final results for Governor: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&fips=53&elect=6&off=5&year=2008



My questions:

1) Any ideas on why Gregoire won Island?

2) What about Rossi winning Cowlitz? Even Ladenburg almost won that county.
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Meeker
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« Reply #262 on: September 07, 2008, 05:54:24 PM »

And how did Joubert get 2.6% in Cowlitz?
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bgwah
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« Reply #263 on: September 07, 2008, 06:00:43 PM »

The most interesting election, in my opinion: Attorney General

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=9&elect=6&fips=53&f=0



Go figure, here Island is McKenna's best non-Lewis county in Western Washington.
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Meeker
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« Reply #264 on: September 07, 2008, 06:03:19 PM »

Ladenburg didn't win King?

Wow. I hadn't realized that.
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bgwah
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« Reply #265 on: September 07, 2008, 06:06:37 PM »

Ladenburg didn't win King?

Wow. I hadn't realized that.

Yeah. I feel sorry for him...

But then again, Jason Osgood lost f'ing Seattle. So it could be worse. Smiley
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Meeker
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« Reply #266 on: September 07, 2008, 06:08:52 PM »

Ladenburg didn't win King?

Wow. I hadn't realized that.

Yeah. I feel sorry for him...

But then again, Jason Osgood lost f'ing Seattle. So it could be worse. Smiley

Did Osgood win Waldron?
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Alcon
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« Reply #267 on: September 07, 2008, 06:09:16 PM »
« Edited: September 07, 2008, 06:29:20 PM by Alcon »

Gregoire didn't do so well among downscale, non-elderly voters.  I have a list of selected trailer park precincts statewide.  Together, she did only like 5-10 percentage points better in margin than Osgood.  In a few, she lost while Osgood won (ouch).

Cowlitz County is probably the most "downscale" county in Washington state.  Looking at the precinct results, it looks like Gregoire's weakness among downscale Democrats hurt her, here.  She fell virtually everywhere, save for a middle-class pocket of Longview around Sacajawea Park, and the suburbanizing Mt. Solo area.

As for Island -- locally anemic turnout has a lot to do with it.  Oak Harbor has a fairly transient population base.  Inactive voter rates are rather high there.  Turnout vs. 2004 was 53% in Oak Harbor, compared to 63% countywide.  That couldn't help the GOP, especially considering transient voters are more likely to be military.  Whatever the case may be, Gregoire improved fairly dramatically vis-a-vis Kerry around Oak Harbor.  Of the 17 Island County precincts where Gregoire outpaced him by 4% or more, 15 were in the Oak Harbor area.
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Alcon
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« Reply #268 on: September 07, 2008, 06:13:30 PM »


Yeah.  Osgood 40, Reed 12, Montgomery 5, Greene 1.  That's the best a Republican has ever done on Waldron.  Waldron has one family of three reliable Republicans, a few staunch Democrats who will vote for Reed, and then everyone else are just massive Democratic hacks. I'm surprised Montgomery got 5.  I doubt they had any idea of what the Constitution Party is.

Osgood also won Langley, Nespelem and Port Townsend.  He probably carried some others (Index, Elmer City, and the Mexican towns in Yakima County would be good bets), too.

The Seattle results are funny.  Osgood barely won Capitol Hill -- in fact, he had to make up for a deficit in the 15th Avenue area down around Broadway.  That is really and truly pathetic.  Interesting race, though.  We got to see what are the truly hackish Democratic parts of Seattle, and they're not totally what I expected.
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bgwah
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« Reply #269 on: September 07, 2008, 06:37:43 PM »

State Auditor: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=11&elect=6&fips=53&f=0



Any chance Sonntag will ever run for Governor? Grin
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Meeker
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« Reply #270 on: September 07, 2008, 06:38:58 PM »


100%. Wait for Gregoire to retire.

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Alcon
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« Reply #271 on: September 07, 2008, 06:41:01 PM »


Can't wait to vote for him.

I know the Constitution Party was helping a bit more this time and all, but it's kind of depressing that Will Baker could manage to get an almost identical map.

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bgwah
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« Reply #272 on: September 07, 2008, 07:11:23 PM »
« Edited: September 07, 2008, 07:13:09 PM by bgwah »

Oh wow, I thought Sonntag-for-Gov was just wishful thinking on my part. I didn't know there was a good chance of it actually happening. That's awesome. If Gregoire wins re-election this year, which I think is looking likely at this point, and Sonntag serves at least two terms... we would be at least 36 years of nothing but Democratic Governors. Great. Smiley
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Meeker
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« Reply #273 on: September 07, 2008, 07:14:14 PM »

Jay Inslee will also run, and possibly Frank Chopp as well. And McKenna. Blech.
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bgwah
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« Reply #274 on: September 07, 2008, 07:18:27 PM »

^ Yes, McKenna is more likely to be Washington's next Republican Governor than Rossi. I've felt that way for a while. But I'm fairly certain he would lose against Sonntag. That would be a great way to get rid of McKenna. Smiley

Inslee would be an okay candidate, though I would rather not run candidates from Seattle/Bainbridge when possible... As for Chopp, I hope you're kidding. I kind of doubt the Republicans will ever regain the legislature. At least not for decades. He should just be happing being in control of the House for as long as he wants. Tongue
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