Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Ogre Mage]

I agree with Meeker.  On paper, Dunn looks like a great candidate -- former federal prosecutor, good name ID, politically well-connected/can raise money.  But based on the past history of the two candidates, I think that Bob Ferguson will outwork Dunn in the end.  I also think that Dunn's promise to support and continue McKenna's health care lawsuit will be electorally damaging in King County.  

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http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/06/14/reagan-dunn-runs-to-succeed-mckenna/


With regards to SayNo's question, one never knows what the future holds in 2016 or 2020, even if Inslee wins.  Inslee could be a bust as governor and someone we may not be thinking about could emerge.  Without question, however, it would be a terrible blow to the WA GOP if McKenna lost.

[Ogre Mage]

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I wonder who this unnamed group of Democrats is that Hutchison refers to?  Presumably they are the ones who will help her win.

If she runs, I will be amused watching her get 40%-42%.

I usually disagree with Chris Vance, but I thought he made a fair point here --

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[Ogre Mage]

Maria Cantwell raised $1.36 million in Q2 and started July with $2.27 million cash on hand.

Meanwhile, this schmuck thinks he might want to run against her: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/19/us-usa-campaign-stanzel-idUSTRE76I6QB20110719

A former GWB spokesman? That would be joyous.

For a Senate candidate in Washington state, his candidate biography is horrid.  

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http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/07/21/former-bush-aide-mulls-senate-bid/

I would love to hear him say this in a televised debate with Sen. Cantwell.

[Ogre Mage]

The only way I can see Reichert running for the U.S. Senate is if redistricting leaves him in a considerably worse position.  Otherwise, there is no point in making a kamikaze run.  I would bet money that Sen. Cantwell would defeat him.  However, Reichert would force Cantwell to run a real campaign, which is more than Scott Stanzel could do.

[Ogre Mage]

Cantwell has stated her support for gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/stepforward/2011/08/30/senator-maria-cantwell-supports-marriage-equality-in-washington-state/

Awesome but why hasn't Murray done so too? I always thought she was to the left of Cantwell too.

On social policy I think Cantwell is as liberal as Murray, perhaps slightly moreso on this issue.  

[Ogre Mage]

Article: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016208774_two_possible_challengers_for_c.html

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Desperation is setting in for Wilbur.  This sounds like the argument in 2010 that Martha Coakley's loss in MA was somehow a sign that Murray would lose.  Cantwell will certainly not be confused about the size of the national debt as Weprin was.

[Ogre Mage]

Article: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016208774_two_possible_challengers_for_c.html

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Desperation is setting in for Wilbur.  This sounds like the argument in 2010 that Martha Coakley's loss in MA was somehow a sign that Murray would lose.  Cantwell will certainly not be confused about the size of the national debt as Weprin was.

The two wouldn't be bad candidates, but yeah Cantwell isn't losing unless Obama's reelection chances start looking like Carter's. I could at least see the two breaking 40 against her. Is Larsen's district still going to be competitive? I know Koster is going to run again against him.

Baumgartner is not Christine O'Donnell level bad (a true denzien of the D-list), but it's fair to say he is a B-list candidate that would be a speed bump for Cantwell barring some drastic unforseen event.

Larsen's chances depend on the results of the restricting committee.  I doubt he will be more vulnerable because we have used this system before and incumbent protection has tended to be the result.  My hypothesis is that Reichert and Herrera will be drawn into safer districts.  The cost will be Larsen is also made safer and a Democratic-favored 10th district.

[Ogre Mage]

As the article suggests, McKenna's lead is at least partially due to the higher name recognition that comes with being in statewide office.  But I'm under no illusions that it will be a tough race.  

[Ogre Mage]

As the article suggests, McKenna's lead is at least partially due to the higher name recognition that comes with being in statewide office.  But I'm under no illusions that it will be a tough race.  

Sketchy poll and small subsample, but the fact that Inslee leads by only 1% among those who know him, isn't good news -- unless, I guess, his former Eastern Washington constituents remember him just as well as his new ones.  If he's only leading by 1% among people who can identify the congressman in liberal WA-1, that's a bad place to be.

Also, as overjoyed as I'd be, there's no way gay marriage leads by that margin, and that's a weirdly poor result for pot considering the other findings.

One interesting piece of poll data is that Inslee leads McKenna in King County 45-39.  If that is true Inslee has a lot of work to do.  There has been some concern in Democratic circles that Inslee (who is not a statewide official and is mostly unconnected to King County) would not do as well there as he should against McKenna (who is both a statewide official and from King County).  Conventional wisdom holds that the Republican candidate needs to get at least 40% in King County to even have a chance of winning statewide, probably more like 42% to have a solid shot.  This poll suggests McKenna is close.

That said, if proper attention is paid I see no reason why Inslee could not turn out the King County base.  He's a little dull but perfectly fine on the issues.  And while voters across the state are evenly split on Obama's health care plan, I bet that is an issue Inslee can turn against McKenna in King.  The question is if McKenna can peel off enough votes in the suburban areas to counteract the tidal wave Inslee should have coming out of Seattle.

Had Dow Constantine been the nominee he would have had a lockdown on the base, but he doesn't have Inslee's connections around other parts of the state.  We'll see if that pays off.

[Ogre Mage]

Sen. Cantwell comes off as a hero in the new Ron Suskind book "Confidence Men":

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http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/09/20/cantwell-hero-in-book-on-obama-heavies/

[Ogre Mage]

In the first poll I've seen for the WA's AG race, King 5/SUSA shows Bob Ferguson (D) leading Reagan Dunn (R) 39%-34%.

http://www.nwcn.com/home/?fId=130603548&fPath=/news/local&fDomain=10212

[Ogre Mage]

State legislator Michael Baumgartner (R-Spokane) will run for U.S. Senate against Maria Cantwell --

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2011/sep/30/baumgartner-run-cantwells-senate-seat/

http://publicola.com/2011/09/30/freshman-state-senator-to-run-against-cantwell/


Obviously, if this is the best the WA GOP has, Cantwell will win easily.  Baumgartner did concede that "we'd need to build a base of support over here in Seattle."  He will fail.

[Ogre Mage]

A great politician and public servant who did so much for our state.  May "The Gov" RIP.

[Ogre Mage]

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http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/10/21/state-sen-scott-white-found-dead/

[Ogre Mage]

McKenna's 6% lead on Inslee is very consistent with what we have seen from other polls.  50% of the people in this poll have no idea who Inslee is vs. only 33% for McKenna, so he has room to grow.  But McKenna has a good favorability rating and definitely came into the race in a stronger position.  He will be tough to beat.

Cantwell will be fine but we knew that already.

[Ogre Mage]

What's the likelihood the Washington AG/SOS positions are won by Democrats in 2012?

The less of a bench they get, the better.

I am optimistic about AG.  After a Survey USA poll showed Ferguson leading 39-34, a poll came out from Moore Information showing the race a dead heat.  Moore Information is a GOP push polling outfit which consistently shows Republican favored results.  Also, Ferguson agreed to a debate request from the King County Bar Association while Dunn turned it down.  While limiting debates is a classic incumbent strategy, this race is for an open seat and there is nothing to suggest Dunn has a big advantage.  It looks like he is either lazy or running scared.

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http://publicola.com/2011/10/27/speaking-of-budget-woes/

The SoS race looks chaotic because of the number of people running.  I am less confident about that race.

[Ogre Mage]

Phillip Yin has backed out on running against Cantwell --

http://www.king5.com/news/politics/GOP-Senate-hopeful-bows-out-of-race-132672318.html

Looks like Baumgartner is going to be her challenger.

[Ogre Mage]

Larsen's staffers get the boot.  Maybe they can go drown their sorrows with Jack Daniels, lol.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/12/09/drinking-and-tweeting-get-larsen-aides-fired/

[Ogre Mage]

Michael Baumgartner turns Sen. Cantwell's marital status into a political attack:

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http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017022077_baumgartner.html?syndication=rss

It will be amusing seeing this jerk get whipped next year.

[Ogre Mage]

Washingtonians, I have a question:

Now that Sen. Patty Murray is in her fourth term, and Sen. Maria Cantwell is in position to win her third, how do they compare with the late Sen. Warren Magnuson?

I wasn't around during Maggie's heyday but I've read a little about him so I'll give it a try.

Neither has reached that stature (yet) but Murray now has enough clout that she isn't far off. The Magnuson comparison makes more sense for Murray because her down-home style is reminiscent of Magnuson.  Like Magnuson Murray generally avoids the spotlight, preferring to operate under the radar.  Also, at the height of his power Magnuson chaired the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee.  Murray is a senior member of that committee (the prime reason for her effectiveness at delivering federal dollars to Washington state -- she is very similar to Magnuson in this regard) and I think she has the potential to someday chair the committee too.  However, Murray does not have Magnuson's salty personal life.

Cantwell's serious, more cerebral approach and high-profile environmentalism is more reminiscent of Washington's other Senate legend, Scoop Jackson.

[Ogre Mage]

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But not her foreign policy?  Scoop Jackson was best known for being a hawk on national security issues.  Didn't prominent neo-conservatives used to serve on his staff, like Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz, among others?

Yes, Perle and Wolfowitz were former Jackson staffers.

Cantwell voted for the Iraq War and refused to recant, which infuriated anti-war Democrats in Washington State.  She got a lot of blowback over this in 2005 and the first half of 2006.  This has some similarities to the intraparty rebellion "superhawk" Jackson faced over Vietnam.  But while she is more hawkish than Patty Murray (who voted against the war), I think to characterize Cantwell as some sort of neocon by way of Scoop Jackson is a mistake.  As the war went south Cantwell grew increasingly critical of Bush both rhetorically and in her votes, including supporting the 2006 nonbinding resolution which urged a withdrawal of forces.  There's little evidence she is a true believer in the way Jackson was.  In that sense, she resembles Jackson more in terms of his political persona rather than his issues.  Both politicians are/were serious, intense, driven individuals not known for levity.

In terms of influence, Cantwell has a ways to go before she is at Magnuson/Jackson or even Patty Murray levels.  But she works very hard and is on the Senate's other "power" committee, Finance, so perhaps someday she will get there.

[Ogre Mage]

Publicola interviewed Gov. Gregoire.  It covers a wide range of topics -- taxes, the budget, OWS, medical marijuana, gay marriage, education, Inslee/McKenna and her legacy.

Pt. 1 -- http://publicola.com/2011/12/19/publicola-qa-with-gov-gregoire-pt-1/

Pt. 2 -- http://publicola.com/2011/12/20/publicola-qa-with-gov-gregoire-pt-2/

Pt. 3 -- http://publicola.com/2011/12/21/publicola-qa-with-gov-gregoire-pt-3/


edited to add Part 3.

[Ogre Mage]

Gregoire was on CNN today about her support for gay marriage. I was presently surprised at how well she presented her case, she may be a bit cold but she's also incredibly intelligent.

Here is the clip of the CNN interview for those who would like to see it:

http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/bestoftv/2012/01/06/nr-washington-gregoire-gay-marriage.cnn#/video/bestoftv/2012/01/06/nr-washington-gregoire-gay-marriage.cnn


And the historic press conference last week when she announced her support:

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/01/05/what-governor-gregoire-said-as-she-endorsed-marriage-equality-in-washington-state

[Ogre Mage]

Thanks to Alcon for the analysis.  My guess is that we will probably have to pass this with a referendum clause to get a majority.

While in principle I dislike the idea of civil rights being put up for a vote, I think a referendum clause would be a good idea from a political standpoint.  As we saw with the domestic partner law/R-71, the matter will inevitably wind up on the ballot at some point anyway.  Better to have the fight on our terms at the time of our choosing.  And polling and the results of R-71 certainly suggest marriage equality could win via vote in Washington State.

[Ogre Mage]

If that is where things stand, I feel optimistic we will pass marriage equality.  We may even be able to do it without a referendum clause.  I think Hill is very gettable on this issue -- if he needs to talk with his constituents first, the message from them should be clear given that district's vote on R-71.