Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Meeker]

I wish I had time and data to do an analysis of every race, but alas I don't. So here is my prediction for my own LD. Note that this isn't what the final tally will be, but this is what the results tomorrow night this time should read. And I spent the past three hours or so trying to perfect this, so they better end up being pretty friggin' close.

Srail (D): 51.2% (10,100)
Carrell (R): 48.8% (9,700)

Kelley (D): 59.8% (12,000)
Dooley (R): 40.2% (8,000)

I can already feel the egg on my face...

[Meeker]

FWIW, looking at the data I've seen, Gregoire should win Pierce County. Narrowly.

[Meeker]

Y'all think you could go any slower in counting votes.  thanks!

The joys of absentee voting!

There will be another deluge around 10:30-11 PST. Pierce and King should be wrapped up by midnight to 3 AM.

If I have time I'll try to explain why it takes so long...

[Meeker]

Biggest surprised of the night: WTF @ 27th, Position 1?

Or maybe Anderson being behind. Makes no sense.

[Meeker]

WTF is going on in Whitman County with Aiken?

[Meeker]

WTF is going on in Whitman County with Aiken?

I think Eunice Coker's staff messed up.

But he also does well in other parts of Eastern Washington as well... maybe he ran some sort of insurgent regional campaign.

The 28th LD Senate race is currently tied, 5790-5790.

We are also currently laughing our heads off.

[Meeker]

While we wait, something fun I learned tonight: If you hang out at the Auditor's office when they release results, McCarthy comes out and personally gives them to you.

[Meeker]

King and Pierce are the only counties that will be releasing results for the rest of the night.

[Meeker]

Did anyone notice the rather high numbers for the Constitution party? 6.52% for SOS!?

That was another very odd thing. The Constitution Party got 3% in one statewide race and more than 6% in two others. Ellen Craswell's revenge?

[Meeker]

Odd?  You have a safe Republican incumbent Republicans hate.  This is simply them having a temper tantrum.

... which doesn't explain the State Auditor or Lt. Governor results.

[Meeker]

Yea, the "Ballots left to count" number is pulled out of their ass. They have no idea how many they're going to get in the mail Hence why respectable counties, such as Pierce, wait much longer before providing estimates.

But for all the complaining about this taking so long, the final results aren't going differ by more than a percent or two from the first round released at 8:30 last night.

So it takes much longer to get a final number, but you know the winnner much quicker. Unless it's a really, really close race.

[Meeker]

There are 24 positions where there was a single unopposed candidate.  It is my interpretation of Washington statutes that all ballots not cast for the single candidate will have to be examined for write-ins, with the 2nd place finisher placed on the general election ballot.

No. State law says that you must receive 1% of the primary vote in order to advance to the general election, thus avoiding a situation like this.

[Meeker]

Could someone do a map for the SPI race?

[Meeker]

I just wanted to see where Dorn's strongest areas were, and reading the county list wasn't too easy to visualize.

My suspicions were that he did well in the East and in the Southwest. I could be very wrong though.

[Meeker]

Yea, the Republicans statewide had a really good day in absentee returns. A lot of the legislative candidates gained a point or two as well.

Perhaps a bunch of military ballots arrived.

[Meeker]

Anyone have any info or ideas about the two remaining candidates for state treasurer? I really liked Sohn but I am not so sure about the other two.

The republican was endorsed by Murhpy and I really respected him and meanwhile McIntire... well I just don't know a ton about him.

McIntire is one of the smartest members of the State House and really knows economic issues. From speaking to him he also really, really wants to win. Both he and Martin would be excellent at the job, so you can't really go wrong.

The peak of Martin's political career will be State Treasurer. He just happens to have a profession that requires election. McIntire could potentially go higher. He's a politician who has an interest in doing the job of State Treasurer and would be really good at it.

I hope that makes sense.

[Meeker]

I'm definitely voting for McIntire in the general. Would've been nice to have Sohn, but McIntire will do...

What convinced you, the (D) next to his name, or the "Prefers Democratic Party" in the primary?

The fact that Allan Martin is Dino Rossi's sex kitten.

[Meeker]

Hecht's percentage has consistently gone down every day, so I did some quick math to figure out what it would take for Armijo to pull off a win. He'd need 57% of the remaining vote, AKA he can't win.

[Meeker]

There are 24 positions where there was a single unopposed candidate.  It is my interpretation of Washington statutes that all ballots not cast for the single candidate will have to be examined for write-ins, with the 2nd place finisher placed on the general election ballot.

No. State law says that you must receive 1% of the primary vote in order to advance to the general election, thus avoiding a situation like this.

Washington law also says that if the number of undervotes and write-in votes is sufficient to change a result, that they be counted.  If there is a single candidate on the primary ballot, it is quite likely that the number of undervotes is greater than 1%.

Can you rephrase that? I don't quite understand what you're referencing.

Regardless of which of us is technically legal correct however, in speaking with the elections officials over the past week I can tell you that they're using my interpretation.

[Meeker]

Why would an undervote be presumed to be a write-in?  The machine automatically distinguishes those from write-ins.

^^^

[Meeker]

All ballots are looked at in person before being sent through a machine to avoid a situation like this. There are tables and tables of workers who look at ballots that have been filled out incorrectly and fill out substitute ballots that can be read by the counting machines.

The only time a ballot is counted as an undervote is if you literally did not make any mark or indication in regards to that race.

[Meeker]

I'd been told that the Tabulator machine separates out any ballots with extraneous marks

That's correct, but at that point they've already been through a hand check and any ballots with potential problems should have been dealt with. There are a very, very small amount that are rejected by the machines, but those are just dealt with by having a substitute ballot sent in its place.

[Meeker]

I'd been told that the Tabulator machine separates out any ballots with extraneous marks

That's correct, but at that point they've already been through a hand check and any ballots with potential problems should have been dealt with. There are a very, very small amount that are rejected by the machines, but those are just dealt with by having a substitute ballot sent in its place.

King County reported roughly 2 to 3% write-ins in every legislative race where there was only candidate on the ballot.

Yes, however, they only count who those write-ins were for if someone has filed a Declaration of Write-In candidacy or if it is clear to election workers that a candidate may make the general election ballot.

[Meeker]

This primary has given me great hope that Peter Goldmark will be able to win

But it has also confirmed my suspicion that John Ladenburg is completely f**cked

[Meeker]

All ballots are looked at in person before being sent through a machine to avoid a situation like this. There are tables and tables of workers who look at ballots that have been filled out incorrectly and fill out substitute ballots that can be read by the counting machines.

In other words, there is no point whatsoever to machine counting.

No. The workers don't count the ballots, they just look for incorrectly filled out ballots. It's a quick scan of the ballot from top to bottom, takes a few seconds at most.

Counting the ballots by hand would take unbelievably longer.