Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Alcon]

How did WA-3 vote? (Or the district that has Olympia+Vancouver+Lewis Co., I believe)

Yeah, it is, although parts of the Olympia metroplex are in WA-9.

In either case, results aren't totally finalized, and I have no break-down for Skamania County (the Underwood area is in WA-4), but my results currently have Obama defeating McCain about 54% to 44%.

Seattle loves Obama, no surprise... did any precincts vote for McCain?

Unfortunately, it will be December until King County precinct results are out.  Obama's trouble spots are precincts 1992 (Broadmoor Country Club) and 1818 (Madison Park retirement condos).  Broadmoor went from 2-to-1 Bush in 2000 to about 57% Bush in 2004, and was a virtual tie in the primary.  But there is a rock-solid GOP base here, and McCain is a good candidate for the country club set.  So is Obama.  On the other hand, Obama risks losing some Clintonites in 1818, and there's hardcore GOP bedrock there.  There's also a Windermere waterfront precinct McGavick flipped that will likely go Obama, but other than that, it's slim pickings for the GOP.

Obama stands a chance at winning both, but I'm not sure it's likely.

[Alcon]

Preliminary Snohomish map

I say preliminary for two important reasons:

1. My shapefile is from 2007; some precincts have been created/destroyed

2. These results are from Friday, and Obama has lost a few points (and inevitably a few precincts) -- but overall it's pretty accurate.  Obama's margin will probably decline +2.0%-2.5% from this map, but that's not going to change it drastically.

Grey indicates no votes cast, or too few votes to protect voter privacy.



For those less familiar with the area:

Labeled version of above

[Alcon]

Which precincts are within the Tulalip Reservation?

Tulalip 1-4, Tulalip 5 (minus some industrial land), Shelton (minus one arbitrary block), Millard, Boeing, Coho, Tyee, Priest Point

See how you can draw a clean line at the top of the 38th LD, and then another along I-5?  Excluding the aforementioned area, that's all rez land.  There are tons of non-whites all over.  The Tulalip CDP is actually approaching 3/4 white, and it doesn't even include the even-whiter land in the non-"Tulalip" precincts.  The rest is a lot of downscale whites and terrible McMansions avoiding county land restrictions.  It's pretty awful.

The "Tulalip" precincts (especially the waterfront ones, 1 & 2) have a ton of affluent waterfront whites.  Tulalip 2 & Priest Point are a mix of poor Indians and rich whites (although the latter is heavily white), Tulalip 3-5 and the rest are a mix of Indians and the aforementioned awful areas.  I'm pretty sure all are at least 65% white, although Tulalip 2 may be a bit more diverse.

That area is not as ridiculously un-Indian as the Port Madison Reservation in Kitsap County (Suquamish is like 12% Indian at most), but it's up there.

[Alcon]

God, I can't believe I stayed up this late.

Spokane County, which is like 95% counted:



Labeled version, for those having trouble finding Spokane or something.

John Kerry's losing Cheney truly was a remarkable achievement.

Anyway, remind me to do Gov when Spokane is finished and also an Obama v. Gregoire map.  There's some weirdness there.

[Alcon]

New shading for Snohomish:

[Alcon]

New Snoho in red (old on left, 2004 in parentheses):

Arlington: 54-45 Obama (45-53) 52-46 Obama
Bothell: 62-37 Obama (55-44) 60-38 Obama
Brier: 64-35 Obama (57-42) 63-36 Obama
Darrington: 53-45 Obama (45-53) 53-44 Obama
Edmonds: 66-33 Obama (60-39) 65-34 Obama
Everett: 64-34 Obama (58-41) 63-35 Obama
Gold Bar: 53-44 Obama (49-49) 52-45 Obama
Granite Falls: 56-41 Obama (51-46) 56-41 Obama
Index: 83-18 Obama (76-23) 78-21 Obama
Lake Stevens: 57-42 Obama (49-50) 56-42 Obama
Lynnwood: 66-32 Obama (61-38) 65-33 Obama
Marysville: 55-43 Obama (48-51) 54-44 Obama
Mill Creek: 57-42 Obama (48-51) 57-42 Obama
Monroe: 55-43 Obama (46-52) 52-46 Obama
Mountlake Terrace: 70-28 Obama (64-35) 69-29 Obama
Mukilteo: 63-36 Obama (54-45) 62-37 Obama
Snohomish: 59-39 Obama (52-46) 58-40 Obama
Stanwood: 49-49 McCain (45-54) 50-49 McCain
Sultan: 52-46 Obama (44-54) 50-48 Obama
Woodway: 52-48 Obama (45-54) 53-47 Obama

I'll make a map when they're totally done (10,000 more ballots to go)

Governor for the same:

Arlington: 53-47 Rossi
Bothell: 53-47 Gregoire
Brier: 56-44 Gregoire
Darrington: 53-47 Rossi
Edmonds: 60-40 Gregoire
Everett: 58-42 Gregoire
Gold Bar: 51-49 Gregoire
Granite Falls: Tie
Index: 73-27 Gregoire
Lake Stevens: 51-49 Rossi
Lynnwood: 60-40 Gregoire
Marysville: 51-49 Rossi
Mill Creek: 51-49 Rossi
Monroe: 54-46 Rossi
Mountlake Terrace: 63-37 Gregoire
Mukilteo: 54-46 Gregoire
Snohomish: 52-48 Gregoire
Stanwood: 54-46 Rossi
Sultan: 53-47 Rossi
Woodway: 55-45 Rossi

[Alcon]

What makes Index so Democratic?

Index is a resort town, but a weird one.  It's tiny, so there's not any service industry (one Korean market).  Basically it's a few hundred semi-hippies who just decided to live in nature, or something.  Either way, the presidential results deceptively under-rate its liberalness.  Back in the 90s, Index easily passed the gay discrimination initiative that failed miserably with over 60% (Seattle barely passed it), and also voted to decriminalize Schedule I narcotics, which even failed in Seattle.

It's also maybe one of the prettiest places in the state.

Down Highway 2 back into King County, there's a twinned town called Skykomish that votes similarly, although less Democratic.  It's totally different, though; it's a socially conservative old rail town.  It's also pretty unpleasant (in part because it's all torn up right now, but still, kind of a depressing place.)

Skykomish may be almost as Democratic, but its politics are way different:  It failed the King County Charter Amendment against gay discrimination that broke 70% countywide this year.

[Alcon]

Thurston County has been slowly drifting up toward 60%, and now stands at 59.996% Obama with about 7,000 ballots to go.  Counter to what I'd have thought, these super late ballots appear to be some of the most Democratic so far statewide.  I guess the expatriots are outvoting the military people.  (These are all international mail except for slow-counters like Pierce, right?  Why else would it take over a week for mail to arrive?)

Klickitat County reports that it's out of ballots, and Obama's lead has now gradually ticked up to an all-time high of 20 votes.  He probably has that.  Wahkiakum is the last question mark, my guess is still a flip to McCain.  It hasn't reported since counting every ballot the night of.  Obama led then, 1,112 to 1,100.

Edit: I don't get it.  I'd think at least some of these would be military ballots, yet today's Pierce County load was over 60% Obama. 

[Alcon]

Ahh, ok.  That explains why "Other" is getting like 6% daily.  I gather provisional/question voters tend to be Democrats and/or total idiots

Are all 36,000 of King and 17,500 of Pierce provisionals/screw-ups?  That seems pretty high.

[Alcon]

Oh.  This all makes sense.  It would be nice to have a break-down of how many RCV ballots are remaining vs. normal ballots.

So, McCarthy probably won, then?  And the latest TNT article implied that Washram won today's run, I think, although it was unclear if they were just reporting that he has a plurality, or both.

I bet the can't-fill-out-a-ballot-correctly vote was pretty lucrative for Washram.

[Alcon]

When's the last time a Democrat won Okanogan County but not Pierce?

1964 Secretary of State, maybe the weirdest modern result I've ever seen.

Before then, a smattering of offices in 1916 (Lt. Governor, Attorney General, State Auditor), and the 1912 Presidential.

I'm pretty impressed Goldmark won.  He lost in the primary (usually where being local matters more) and did pretty awful in other counties with big timber.  But Okanogan is trending hard, and I guess Goldmark has the name ID there.  Still a bit of a coup.

The Democrats are going to have to hit their ceiling eventually in Okanogan.  There's no way that they can maintain these big yearly trends.  There's only so many votes in the Mazama Valley...I think

Then again, I wouldn't have expected it to be the second-biggest trender this year after 2004's huge swing.

[Alcon]

When's the last time a Democrat won Okanogan County but not Pierce?

1964 Secretary of State, maybe the weirdest modern result I've ever seen.

What was with that?

No idea

[Alcon]

Last two days of Pierce County:

Obama 62%
McCain 36%

Gregoire 53%
Rossi 47%

McIntire 58%
Martin 42%

Goldmark 50%
Sutherland 50%

I was meaning to track County Exec too, but I forgot.  How's that changed?  Latest voters sure are weird downticket.  They seem to be voting like McIntire was the incumbent

[Alcon]

Yep.  The 1st was counteracted this year because Obama was a good candidate for Lake Tapps and some of the boom areas around Bonney Lake.  I think 2000->2004 was telling.  The Dem margins are going to revert some, but they're never going to return in a few places.  And that's why Pierce County is trending blue (although it won't this year)

I don't really think any part of suburban Pierce is a Republican stronghold.  There are some areas around Lake Tapps where Bush certainly thwumped Kerry, but Obama way brought down those numbers.

The real new bedrock GOP area in Pierce County is around Graham and the southern part of Elk Plain.  There are a lot of down- to mid-scale voters here, as well as some newer upper-incomers escaping urban life.  I guess that area is part of the Seattle-Tacoma metro by virtue of being part of the Tacoma metro (barely).  But I think the idea of including that area in the "Seattle metro" is ridiculous.  It's wayyy not.

Anyway, even Obama was running against population growth in a few areas around Bonney Lake.  Just eyeballing, and without my 2000 results, Gore also did better than Obama in parts of Graham and southern Spanaway.  I think those are more long-term impacts.  It's a mix of growth and a loss of Democratic cultural appeal.

Basically, in any area where tax-resenting middle-class people (many of them fundies) are moving into downscale "redneck" areas = bad news for the Democrats.  That describes a lot of Pierce County.  Obama's strong showing in developments and wealthy enclaves (which tend to share districts with the aforementioned areas) temporary hid what's a longer trend.

Although I don't think we'll be seeing anything crazy sharp like 2000->2004.  I could go into more detail why, but instead I'll just give some geopolitical shout-outs: Puyallup/South Hill, Tacoma 'burbs (Southwest and Northeast), Gig Harbor Peninsula.  I think you see where I'm going with that.

Anyway, the Dem worry for a while was that those exurban growth trends would continue while the inner 'burbs and "old exurbs" like Gig Harbor wouldn't move.  I doubt the GOP will get a Perfect Storm like that.  On the other hand, without a real bad housing market, and with few traditional inner suburbs, I think the basic trend is GOP.

[Alcon]

Why did Gregoire do so badly in the south of the state [qm].

She did fine in every county except Wahkiakum (the tiny one) and Cowlitz (the one to the right of Wahkiakum), actually.  And Pacific, the red one, to some degree.

She's on track to lose Clark by 2 (Kerry lost by over 5), Lewis by 29 (Kerry lost by 32), Skamania by <5 (Kerry lost by >6).  On the other hand, she's going to lose Cowlitz by 7 (Kerry +3), Wahkiakum by 16 (Bush +7), and Pacific she'll win by 4 (Kerry +9).

These are areas where her earlier strategy of playing culture warrior probably worked out badly.  Cowlitz is strongly pro-life.  She just didn't do so well countywide in the primary, and that pattern continued into the General.  I'd have to see precinct results to get more detailed, but there's some oddity.  She did fine in Grays Harbor, which is kind of like Cowlitz except with more of a union tradition.  My inclination is that it's also less Catholic.  Although after Cowlitz's weird 180 on assisted suicide this year (worst county for it last time around, this time passed with like 60%), I don't know what to think.

Media markets may have come into play, as well.  Her performance in Clark isn't really all that amazing, considering how well she did in the Puget Sound 'burbs and her surprise endorsement by The Columbian (plus some other locally favorable news).

[Alcon]

Yakima's question ballot batch was 64-35 Obama.  Which is, IMHO, a great argument for bringing back bilingual option ballots.

Pet cause, but seriously, didn't we used to have that option?

[Alcon]

I wonder why King County just got rid of 15,000 already-counted votes while reducing their ballots remaining by 10,000?

[Alcon]

Final Assessor-Treasurer/County Exec results were out at 6.  An update is posted but I don't know where the RCV algorithm run is.

My guess is McCarthy/Washram (ew) but I'm curious.

[Alcon]

It currently looks like the race for the newly created King County Elections Director will be between Jason Osgood and Pam Roach. This has to be some sort of cruel sick joke. We're being Punk'd, right?

I wonder if Osgood will barcode Roach's flower vase

[Alcon]

I still don't understand the OSPI results

The best I could figure was that people in districts with lots of Mexicans were more pissed and anti-incumbenty.  Unless they lived in Yakima County in which case god I don't know.

I mean, Dorn clearly did really well in the Tri-Cities and Wenatchee area, like in the primary.  Otherwise it seems like a big mess of WTF.

Wasn't it supposed to be a referendum on the WASL?  I always thought the strongest WASL haters were pretty far-left but it seems that Bergeson did some of her best in liberal-saturated areas.

Maybe this all will make more sense with precinct break-downs but I doubt it.

[Alcon]

Certification day is tomorrow, so I'll have plenty of fun stuff.  Stupid King County, which will make us wait until December, not included.

For tonight San Juan County is in, and hopped above 70% just in the last report.

San Juan
Final: Obama 70.02%, McCain 28.09%

Mostly boring.  The two most extreme precincts swung toward McCain - he improved Bush's subpar Decatur/Blakely margin (57->just below 60%), and actually pryed off a voter on Waldron, bringing it down to 92-5 Democrat (down from 96-4).  Some third parties also joined in, which is typical.  Major anti-Bush vote there.

As for places with actual significant numbers of people:

Lopez Island went from 72-26 Kerry to 77-20 Obama
Orcas Island went from 65-31 Kerry to 73-26 Obama
Rural San Juan Island went from 63-35 Kerry to 73-26 Obama
Friday Harbor went from 60-37 Kerry to 65-32 Obama

Overall, Kerry +32.70 to Obama +41.93.  That's a swing of 9.23%, which (using the likely-high assumed national trend of 9.5%) is a GOP trend of 0.27%.  Which, really, when you get up around 70%, is to be expected.

Kind of funny to think it used to be the most Republican county in the state.

-

Governor: At Gregoire +13.04%, the biggest swing of the election.  She actually performed nearly identical to Kerry virtually everywhere, except a little worse on parts of San Juan Island.  The Waldron flipper was apparently McCain/Gregoire, and I'm sure will be tracked down, force-fed non-organic food, and limited to only one toilet.

[Alcon]

Early PierceCo numbers (this will become more GOP).  Includes only Pierce County portions (which is like 20 votes in Pacific), does not include consolidations.  Kerry in parentheses.

Municipality
Auburn: 55-44 Obama (49-51)
Bonney Lake: 51-48 Obama (46-52)
Buckley: 48-48 Obama (46-53)
Carbonado: 61-36 McCain (34-63)
DuPont: 50-49 Obama (41-57)
Eatonville: 49-49 McCain (43-56)
Edgewood: 51-47 Obama (47-51)
Fife: 61-37 Obama (57-42)
Fircrest: 61-38 Obama (54-45)
Gig Harbor: 53-46 Obama (46-53)
Lakewood: 56-42 Obama (51-48)
Milton: 55-44 Obama (51-48)
Orting: 50-48 Obama (45-53)
Pacific: 52-48 Obama (37-63)
Puyallup: 54-44 Obama (48-51)
Roy: 57-39 McCain (38-62)
Ruston: 66-32 Obama (63-33)
South Prairie: 52-48 McCain (46-51)
Steilacoom: 52-46 Obama (49-49)
Sumner: 55-43 Obama (52-47)
Tacoma: 68-30 Obama (62-37)
University Place: 59-40 Obama (52-47)
Wilkeson: 49-48 Obama (52-46)

LD
2nd: 50-48 McCain (42-56)
25th: 53-45 Obama (47-52)
26th: 52-47 Obama (46-53)
27th: 69-30 Obama (63-36)
28th: 56-42 Obama (50-49)
29th: 64-34 Obama (59-40)
31st: 51-47 Obama (46-53)

Predictably, McCain just lost it in the middle-class suburbs here too.

New totals:

Auburn: 55-43 Obama (flip)
Bonney Lake: 49-49 Obama (flip)
Buckley: 50-48 Obama (flip)
Carbonado: 62-34 McCain
DuPont: 50-49 McCain
Eatonville: 51-47 McCain
Edgewood: 50-48 Obama (flip)
Fife: 60-38 Obama
Fircrest: 59-39 Obama
Gig Harbor: 52-47 Obama (flip)
Lakewood: 56-42 Obama
Milton: 54-44 Obama (flip)
Orting: 49-49 McCain
Pacific: 49-47 Obama (flip)
Puyallup: 53-46 Obama (flip)
Roy: 53-45 McCain
Ruston: 64-34 Obama
South Prairie: 51-45 McCain
Steilacoom: 52-46 Obama
Sumner: 54-43 Obama
Tacoma: 67-31 Obama
University Place: 58-40 Obama
Wilkeson: 49-48 McCain (flip)

Also: Obama carries Fort Lewis 50-48 (flip)

2nd: 51-47 McCain
25th: 52-46 Obama (flip)
26th: 50-48 Obama (flip)
27th: 68-31 Obama
28th: 56-43 Obama
29th: 64-34 Obama
31st: 50-48 Obama (flip)

I have full final precinct returns from: Asotin, Benton, Chelan, Clallam, Cowlitz, Douglas, Ferry, Franklin, Garfield, Grays Harbor, Island, Jefferson, Klickitat, Lewis, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Okanogan, Pacific, Pend Oreille, Pierce, San Juan, Skagit, Skamania, Snohomish, Spokane, Stevens, Thurston and Wahkiakum.

[Alcon]

Oregon beat us, though: 85.56% turnout there.  Without poll voters, our turnout would have been 84.74% so they still win.  Lame!

And, yeah, this thread isn't done.  lord man, king county precinct results won't be out until December, you nuts?

[Alcon]

I now have every county but Adams, Columbia, King, Kittitas, Walla Walla, Whatcom and Whitman.

Highest Percentage of Vote
Obama
1. Port Townsend - 80.49%
2. Nespelem - 79.37%
3. Index - 79.21%
4. Mabton - 78.79%
5. Bainbridge Island - 77.85%
6. Langley - 77.74%
7. Wapato - 75.32%
8. Toppenish - 75.08%
9. Winthrop - 73.36%
10. Bellingham - 73.22%

McCain
1. Hartline - 74.70%
2. Mansfield - 73.41%
3. Waverly - 72.41%
4. Lynden - 71.47%
5. Reardan - 68.92%
6. Pomeroy - 67.09%
7. Napavine - 66.95%
8. Krupp - 66.67%
9. Kahlotus - 66.67%
10. Davenport - 66.63%

Lowest Percentage of Vote
Obama
1. Waverly - 24.14%
2. Mansfield - 24.28%
3. Hartline - 25.30%
4. Krupp - 26.67%
5. Lynden - 26.73%
6. Ione (+rural) - 30.09%
7. Reardan - 30.41%
8. Napavine - 30.46%
9. Pomeroy - 31.05%
10. Davenport - 31.27%

McCain
1. Nespelem - 15.87%
2. Port Townsend - 17.55%
3. Index - 19.80%
4. Langley - 20.25%
5. Mabton - 20.54%
6. Bainbridge Island - 20.79%
7. Wapato - 22.63%
8. Toppenish - 23.65%
9. Olympia - 24.64%
10. Bellingham - 24.85%

Biggest Swing
Obama
1. Riverside - +42.37%
2. Rock Island - +34.65%
3. Quincy - +29.97%
4. Creston - +29.80%
5. Warden - +27.39%
6. Winlock - +26.66%
7. North Bonneville - +26.45%
8. George - +26.45%
9. Toppenish - +26.05%
10. Royal City - +25.62%

McCain
1. Krupp - +14.19%
2. Hartline - +13.04%
3. Wilkeson - +6.75%
4. Sprague - +5.91%
5. Metaline Falls (+rural) - +4.45%
6. Vader - +4.38%
7. Ilwaco - +3.82%
8. Hamilton - +2.16%
9. Roslyn - +1.03%
10. Pomeroy - +0.94%

[Alcon]

Logical reason for the uber-Republican precinct in the South?

Went from 46-25 Bush to 40-17 McCain

Looks like this.  No idea why it lost so many voters, but basically a blip.  Helps that it's a little unincorporated island -- no municipal taxes, attracts more Republicans.

Mostly a blip, though.