Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Oryxslayer]

I feel like she's still too conservative for WA in a similar way that Smiley was, but better than Culp for sure.

Her last votes in congress (same sex marriage, birth control, abortion, etc.) will certainly come back to haunt her.

Probably, but they're also vastly less well-known compared to her impeachment vote and getting primaried by a far right Putin supporter. I'm sure the Dems will push those votes hard and probably succeed as it's Washington, but who knows; being pro-life didn't hurt prominent anti-Trump Republicans like DeWine and Kemp.

Personally, I really like JHB and would gladly support her, possibly even volunteer.

Yeah, there's nothing wrong with JHB running for Governor - other than it suggests she thinks the blanket primary won't let her win her old job back. The issue is that Inslee is entrenched at this point and everyone - both D and R - will need him to retire of succumb to scandal for the office to seriously be contested.

[kingcharlesvii]

Disappointed to see there hasn't been much discussion around two big recent developments in Washington State Politics.

1st, The State Supreme Court ruled that the Capital Gains tax passed a few sessions ago is constitutional, they did however completely avoided touching the income tax debate by ruling a capital gains tax is an excise tax. I expect this will further empower progressives next session to consider trying to make a wealth tax happen as well as other progressive revenue options.
https://www.heraldnet.com/news/supreme-court-rules-states-new-capital-gains-tax-is-legal/

2nd, In light of the recent Northwest Progressive Institute's poll that showed him at only 7% and far behind AG Ferguson, King County Executive Dow Constantine announced he will not be a candidate for Governor. Leaving only Ferguson and State Public Lands Commissioner Hilary Franz the only prominent politicians angling for governor on the democratic side, though Lt Gov. Denny Heck could be well positioned to take advantage of the relative obscurity of the current field amongst the general public
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/king-county-executive-dow-constantine-wont-run-for-wa-governor/
https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2023/03/bruce-dammeier-r-bob-ferguson-d-lead-hypothetical-2024-gubernatorial-field-in-wa.html

[RI]

The capital gains ruling is horrific judicial reasoning, but that's par for the course for the Washington Supreme Court, and the tax as it stands barely impacts anyone so it won't have much political effect. Given their (specious) reasoning in the case, I don't see how a wealth tax stands, but I bet they'd uphold an income tax. Dems should be careful for what they wish for there, though; an income tax is the one thing I could see blowing up in their faces enough to lose power.

I don't see the Governor's race being very interesting on the Dem side. It's Inslee's if he wants it, Ferguson's otherwise. The R side will either be JHB or some Culp acolyte such as Semi Bird (lol). Dammeier could've made it interesting against Ferguson, but likely would've lost; JHB might make it somewhat closer than usual, but she'd lose as well.

[GeneralMacArthur]

The capital gains ruling is horrific judicial reasoning, but that's par for the course for the Washington Supreme Court, and the tax as it stands barely impacts anyone so it won't have much political effect. Given their (specious) reasoning in the case, I don't see how a wealth tax stands, but I bet they'd uphold an income tax. Dems should be careful for what they wish for there, though; an income tax is the one thing I could see blowing up in their faces enough to lose power.

I don't see the Governor's race being very interesting on the Dem side. It's Inslee's if he wants it, Ferguson's otherwise. The R side will either be JHB or some Culp acolyte such as Semi Bird (lol). Dammeier could've made it interesting against Ferguson, but likely would've lost; JHB might make it somewhat closer than usual, but she'd lose as well.

The threat of a state income tax would probably be enough to get me to vote against the Dems, especially if they did it not via constitutional amendment but by abusing the far-left state courts to circumvent the state constitution.

I'd have to assume some normal "liberal but no income tax" candidate would run as an alternative in that case, because there would be a massive space in the race for such a candidate.  No way Loren Culp is the only candidate who isn't pro-income-tax.  Have to assume King County businesses and tech millionaires would absolutely drown such a candidate in money.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

What happened in the state of Washington in the midterms is also a clue, Republicans gained in Minority areas of the state and Democrats with Whites, the result was Democrats picking up an extra Seat because Minority Seats were Safe Seats.

So the "brown vote" doesn't matter that much until the GOP wins 60% with them, instead of the current 40%, but it's getting there slowly. I say around 2032.

Can someone who's familiar with 2022 results in the various King County Seattle suburbs and Tacoma give a detailed breakdown of what happened here? Or how much of the Yakima Valley House, Senate, and State Legislature swings were from turnout changes vs persuasion?

[RI]

Inslee is not running for re-election.

Congrats to Governor Ferguson.

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/seattletimes/status/1653068789100208128?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mb...

[Lambsbread]

RIP to the GOAT, wish he had gotten Secretary of Energy but very much appreciate his service as Governor. That being said...

Why does Washington state have such a boring bench?

[NewYorkExpress]

Mildly curious to see if Inslee got promised a cabinet position in a Biden second term. Energy, Health and Human Services and Interior are all possibilities.

[Xing]

Honestly, not too surprising. Governor Ferguson it is.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So who is going to be the longest tenured Governor after he leaves? Phil Murphy?

[Zedonathin2020]

So who is going to be the longest tenured Governor after he leaves? Phil Murphy?

Wrong Phil. It'll be Phill Scott and Chris Sununu

[RI]

Unsurprisingly, Ferguson announced an exploratory committee to run for governor today.

[Rat]

Is there anyone else seriously challenging Ferguson, or is this basically gonna be a coronation?

[Rhenna]

Is there anyone else seriously challenging Ferguson, or is this basically gonna be a coronation?

Could Hilary Franz win?

[RI]

Is there anyone else seriously challenging Ferguson, or is this basically gonna be a coronation?

Could Hilary Franz win?

There's an outside chance of her winning if it's a Ferguson vs. Franz general election. Would require her pulling in significant Republican support while winning most non-progressive Democrats.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

For a state as lopsided in partisan and having no term limits there should be no reason to coronate Ferguson.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Also if Habib didn’t retire and become a priest could he have run?

[Dr. MB]

Is there anyone else seriously challenging Ferguson, or is this basically gonna be a coronation?

Jeff Bezos will probably enter the race.

[RI]

Manka Dhingra is running for AG. Lord have mercy.

Raul Garcia has filed for Governor on the Republican side. At least he's a halfway decent option.

[ottermax]

Manka Dhingra is running for AG. Lord have mercy.

Raul Garcia has filed for Governor on the Republican side. At least he's a halfway decent option.

What specifically about Dhingra makes her unqualified?

[RI]

Manka Dhingra is running for AG. Lord have mercy.

Raul Garcia has filed for Governor on the Republican side. At least he's a halfway decent option.

What specifically about Dhingra makes her unqualified?

She's not "unqualified" in any narrow sense. I just view her as everything we don't need in an AG. She was the senator pushing the garbage report alleging the police pursuit ban was necessary to save bystander lives, and she's been the key obstacle blocking efforts to fix that policy for multiple sessions. The Seattle Times even endorsed her Republican opponent (very rare!) last year and labeled her as "out of touch" and "intransigent." She'd put Washington's soft-on-crime nonsense into overdrive.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Manka Dhingra is running for AG. Lord have mercy.

Raul Garcia has filed for Governor on the Republican side. At least he's a halfway decent option.

What specifically about Dhingra makes her unqualified?

She's not "unqualified" in any narrow sense. I just view her as everything we don't need in an AG. She was the senator pushing the garbage report alleging the police pursuit ban was necessary to save bystander lives, and she's been the key obstacle blocking efforts to fix that policy for multiple sessions. The Seattle Times even endorsed her Republican opponent (very rare!) last year and labeled her as "out of touch" and "intransigent." She'd put Washington's soft-on-crime nonsense into overdrive.

Endorsed

(Sarcasm)
^(Sorta)

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

What happened in the state of Washington in the midterms is also a clue, Republicans gained in Minority areas of the state and Democrats with Whites, the result was Democrats picking up an extra Seat because Minority Seats were Safe Seats.

So the "brown vote" doesn't matter that much until the GOP wins 60% with them, instead of the current 40%, but it's getting there slowly. I say around 2032.

Can someone who's familiar with 2022 results in the various King County Seattle suburbs and Tacoma give a detailed breakdown of what happened here? Or how much of the Yakima Valley House, Senate, and State Legislature swings were from turnout changes vs persuasion?

Would be nice if someone has access to precinct data (and knowledge of spatial distribution/turnout patterns of POC voters) for congressional and state-level races.

[RI]

What happened in the state of Washington in the midterms is also a clue, Republicans gained in Minority areas of the state and Democrats with Whites, the result was Democrats picking up an extra Seat because Minority Seats were Safe Seats.

So the "brown vote" doesn't matter that much until the GOP wins 60% with them, instead of the current 40%, but it's getting there slowly. I say around 2032.

Can someone who's familiar with 2022 results in the various King County Seattle suburbs and Tacoma give a detailed breakdown of what happened here? Or how much of the Yakima Valley House, Senate, and State Legislature swings were from turnout changes vs persuasion?

Would be nice if someone has access to precinct data (and knowledge of spatial distribution/turnout patterns of POC voters) for congressional and state-level races.

In Snohomish County, about 75% as many white voters turned out in 2022 as compared to 2020, whereas it was about 55% as many Hispanics and blacks and 60% as many Asians. Among Asians, South Asians retained higher turnout levels while Southeast Asians dropped off more heavily.

Yakima County had very few D vs R legislative races in Hispanic areas. The three small, highly Hispanic cities of Grandview, Sunnyside, and Toppenish saw large swings to Smiley compared to Trump (29% on average vs 21% for the county as a whole); Smiley actually won Sunnyside outright despite being 85% Hispanic and voting 64% Biden. Turnout was down by 53% in these cities compared to 2020 whereas turnout was only down 35% countywide.

All of this suggests a strong turnout effect for Hispanics in 2022, although I wouldn't rule out a persuasion effect.

King and Pierce don't really have too many areas which are strongly of one ethnic group. I'd have to do a lot more digging there to get better information than I can do quickly.