Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[RI]

New matchbacks are starting to drop. ~45% of the vote or more to be counted still. Much more R than earlier votes.

[Xing]

It’s possible but unlikely (I’d say) that Kent and Culp catch up. Unless the remaining dumps are significantly more friendly to them, they’re not going to gain enough to pull into second place.

RI, your performance is definitely admirable for a Republican in a strongly Democratic district. You could definitely make it a single-digit race. It’s yet to be seen if Republicans take note and see that your politics are more viable here than the likes of Culp, though.

[Seattle]

My notes thus far:

LD-10 -
Dave Paul (D, inc) up 54.6 - 45.3
Clyde Shavers (D) up 52.5 - 47.7 Greg Gilday (R, inc) that would be a pickup... what's going on here

LDs 17/18 - Vancouver burbs forever stuck in Lean R territory. The 17th is Biden +3.6 and 18th is Trump +0, I have him winning by 23 votes.

LD-25 - Puyallup and exurbs also forever stuck in Lean R. Biden +1.8 and the Ds didn't even find a candidate to run for one of the House positions.

LD-26 - Gig Harbor bluening continues
Emily Randall (D, inc) up 52 - 48 (Rs combined) She looks to be in a decent position for general
Adison Richards (D) up 50.5 - 49.4 Spencer Hutchins (R) another pickup, although tight
Michelle Caldier (R, inc) up 54.6 - 45.2 Matt Macklin (D)

LD-42 - the only concerning district for Ds, although I think Western not being in session may be responsible for some underperformance?
Rs combined (Simon Sefzik will be the nominee) 53 - 47 Sharon Shewmake (D)
Rs combined (Tawsha Thompson) 51.3 - 48.7 Alicia Rule (D, inc)
Rs combined (Dan Johnson) 51.8 - 48.2 Combined Ds (Joe Timmons)

LD-47 -
Lol only mentioning that Pos 2 is looking to be D vs D thanks to three Rs
Chris Stearns (D) 34.7 - Shukri Olow (D) 18.4 & growing, Barry Knowles (R) 17.8

[RI]

WA-08 R Primary:

Image Link

Larkin blue, Dunn red, Jensen green, Stephenson yellow.

More coming.

[RI]

WA-03 Primary:

Image Link

Red is Perez, Blue is JHB, Orange is Kent, Green is St. John.

[ottermax]

WA-03 Primary:

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Red is Perez, Blue is JHB, Orange is Kent, Green is St. John.

These patterns are really interesting. Does anyone know what might be behind the patterns for each GOP candidate?

[cwt]

New Crosscut poll for the SoS race:

Hobbs 31%
Anderson 29%
Undecided 40%

[Canis]

WA-03 Primary:

Image Link

Red is Perez, Blue is JHB, Orange is Kent, Green is St. John.

These patterns are really interesting. Does anyone know what might be behind the patterns for each GOP candidate?

Not super familiar with the district but I've been through a couple of times, looks like JHB did really well in the suburban parts of the district Kent did really well in the rural areas and St john did well around the area of her state senate district.

[RI]

Not a lot to hang my hat on in my race, but my hometown paper, which leans pretty strongly left and endorsed my opponent, had some nice words to say about me:

Rohla is an intriguing candidate. Bucking a Republican trend — at least at the national level — Rohla said he is not afraid to call out extreme views within his own party, and rebukes the election lies of former president Donald Trump. He presents himself as a skilled moderate problem-solver and would have much to offer fellow lawmakers, particularly on economic issues.

[Senator Incitatus]

Not a lot to hang my hat on in my race, but my hometown paper, which leans pretty strongly left and endorsed my opponent, had some nice words to say about me:

Rohla is an intriguing candidate. Bucking a Republican trend — at least at the national level — Rohla said he is not afraid to call out extreme views within his own party, and rebukes the election lies of former president Donald Trump. He presents himself as a skilled moderate problem-solver and would have much to offer fellow lawmakers, particularly on economic issues.

Did not realize you were running! Kudos.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not a lot to hang my hat on in my race, but my hometown paper, which leans pretty strongly left and endorsed my opponent, had some nice words to say about me:

Rohla is an intriguing candidate. Bucking a Republican trend — at least at the national level — Rohla said he is not afraid to call out extreme views within his own party, and rebukes the election lies of former president Donald Trump. He presents himself as a skilled moderate problem-solver and would have much to offer fellow lawmakers, particularly on economic issues.

Did not realize you were running! Kudos.

Best of luck in your campaign!

[PSOL]

Seattle has ranked choice voting now. Kshama Sawant is more likely to go down now than during the recall.

Did Dr. RI win?

[Not Me, Us]

Seattle has ranked choice voting now. Kshama Sawant is more likely to go down now than during the recall.

Did Dr. RI win?

Unfortunately not.

[Seattle]

Looks like Ds gained a seat in both the senate and the house.
Perpetually competitive LD-42 elected Rep Sharon Shewmake to the senate by about 1.2% over appointed incumbent Sefzik (who replaced Doug Erickson when he passed from Covid).

Ds also very narrowly picked up a seat in the house in LD-10, where Clyde Shavers is ahead of incumbent Greg Gilday by .24%.

Emily Randall (D) narrowly hung on to her senate seat in LD-26 against Jesse Young (R) by 1.7%. However, Rs held on to the house seat vacated by Young by .98% with Spencer Hutchins winning over Addison Richards, who had narrowly lead for a good week before very late ballots flipped the race.

[Seattle]

Is Inslee going to run for a fourth term? I really hope not... I would like to see both him and Cantwell retire (that's not happening).

I'm sure Bob Ferguson and Dow Constantine will run for governor, probably some state legislators too.

[warandwar]

Seattle has ranked choice voting now. Kshama Sawant is more likely to go down now than during the recall.

Last I heard, she is thinking about running for something else. Her base is getting gentrified out, as well.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Seattle has ranked choice voting now. Kshama Sawant is more likely to go down now than during the recall.

Last I heard, she is thinking about running for something else. Her base is getting gentrified out, as well.

What exactly is there? If she can't win her district, how could she win something larger?

[warandwar]

Seattle has ranked choice voting now. Kshama Sawant is more likely to go down now than during the recall.

Last I heard, she is thinking about running for something else. Her base is getting gentrified out, as well.

What exactly is there? If she can't win her district, how could she win something larger?

We'll see.

[PSOL]

Seattle has ranked choice voting now. Kshama Sawant is more likely to go down now than during the recall.

Last I heard, she is thinking about running for something else. Her base is getting gentrified out, as well.

What exactly is there? If she can't win her district, how could she win something larger?

We'll see.

Sometimes even small things are too much, keep those lips tight man cmon

[Seattle]

From my limited conversations with friends involved in the state D party, it sounds like Inslee is going to indeed run for a 4th term. Anyone hearing anything different? Pretty bummed if so.

[Utah Neolib]

From my limited conversations with friends involved in the state D party, it sounds like Inslee is going to indeed run for a 4th term. Anyone hearing anything different? Pretty bummed if so.

Inslee is already sorta fundraising for it and I’m pretty sure he goes for it again. Would’ve been nice to see someone new though. If he runs and wins a fourth term, he will have served 16 YEARS in the office.

[BenjiG98]

https://twitter.com/AudreyFahlberg/status/1628473181529833475?s=20

[Rat]

I feel like she's still too conservative for WA in a similar way that Smiley was, but better than Culp for sure.

[wbrocks67]

I feel like she's still too conservative for WA in a similar way that Smiley was, but better than Culp for sure.

Her last votes in congress (same sex marriage, birth control, abortion, etc.) will certainly come back to haunt her.

[RI]

I feel like she's still too conservative for WA in a similar way that Smiley was, but better than Culp for sure.

Her last votes in congress (same sex marriage, birth control, abortion, etc.) will certainly come back to haunt her.

Probably, but they're also vastly less well-known compared to her impeachment vote and getting primaried by a far right Putin supporter. I'm sure the Dems will push those votes hard and probably succeed as it's Washington, but who knows; being pro-life didn't hurt prominent anti-Trump Republicans like DeWine and Kemp.

Personally, I really like JHB and would gladly support her, possibly even volunteer.