Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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RI
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« Reply #6050 on: November 24, 2021, 07:55:37 PM »

Final Seattle precinct results:

Mayor (Harrell red, Gonzalez green):


Attorney (Davison blue, NTK green):


Council Position #8 (Mosqueda green, Wilson red):


Council Position #9 (Oliver green, Nelson red):


NTK vs Gonzalez (Blue = NTK > Gonzalez, Pink = Gonzalez > NTK):
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RI
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« Reply #6051 on: November 24, 2021, 08:01:44 PM »

Results in the 3rd Council District:

49.93% Harrell
49.85% Gonzalez

56.75% NTK
42.46% Davison

67.99% Mosqueda
31.57% Wilson

55.33% Oliver
44.52% Nelson
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« Reply #6052 on: November 24, 2021, 09:02:34 PM »

The Mosqueda/Wilson race results really highlights the wealthiest neighborhoods (apart from N. Capitol Hill that voted for Mosqueda and that one Wilson South Park precinct).
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PSOL
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« Reply #6053 on: November 24, 2021, 09:18:26 PM »

Results in the 3rd Council District:

49.93% Harrell
49.85% Gonzalez

56.75% NTK
42.46% Davison

67.99% Mosqueda
31.57% Wilson

55.33% Oliver
44.52% Nelson
Right now the recall is slightly favored, but the massive connections and grassroots ties to the community will be put to the test and will perform amicably. What many don’t realize is that Kshama Sawant is more moderate than NTK and on the same par as the other candidates.

Amazon and the suburban elite will pour a hefty fortune in attacks on Sawant’s character, so she needs to have some finesse in responding to the non-sequiters her way.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #6054 on: November 26, 2021, 08:56:17 PM »

Just saw my first Sawant recall ad on TV (pro recall). While it was clearly targeted at moderates to drive turnout and give talking points, rather than convincing undecideds, it also hit her on violating COVID protocols, which is a good "hit them where they seem strongest" line, and not a criticism I remember hearing often against her.
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RI
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« Reply #6055 on: November 29, 2021, 12:35:01 PM »

Reagan Dunn is running against Kim Shrier.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #6056 on: November 30, 2021, 09:10:54 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2021, 09:15:36 PM by GeneralMacArthur »

Only one week to go until the Sawant Recall election.

One the ground here in D3, the Sawant people have been out in force all over the Capitol Hill core.  My Recall Sawant yard sign has been stolen, I put up another one, it got stolen again, I put up another one, it got stolen again, so now I'm on my 4th one, and I bet by the time I finish writing this, it will have been stolen.  Of course none of this is too surprising since I'm likely the only person in my precinct who will be voting to recall.  All the flyers I've received, however, have been from the Recall campaign.  I've also heard they put up TV ads, although since I don't watch TV I haven't seen them.

Although Sawant has spent the last six months crying about "voter suppression" due to its being a separate election, it looks like the recall election will actually have higher turnout than the general election!  Somehow 86 people have used fax machines to fax in their ballots, which I didn't even know was an option.

You can see that the map of early turnout heavily favors the Recall campaign as in general the closer you are to the coast, the more anti-Sawant it gets.



However I would hesitate before making any conjectures based on this data since Sawant voters notoriously wait until the absolute last second.  If the Recall isn't up by at least 60-40 on election night then she'll probably win in a landslide.  One of the truly aggravating aspects of our local elections, and to make matters worse, local media is all salivating to write their conclusions based on the election night returns, when we literally know nothing.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #6057 on: December 02, 2021, 09:51:44 AM »

Only one week to go until the Sawant Recall election.

One the ground here in D3, the Sawant people have been out in force all over the Capitol Hill core.  My Recall Sawant yard sign has been stolen, I put up another one, it got stolen again, I put up another one, it got stolen again, so now I'm on my 4th one, and I bet by the time I finish writing this, it will have been stolen.

Put up a camera and record the car license plate number. 
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #6058 on: December 02, 2021, 11:52:17 AM »

Only one week to go until the Sawant Recall election.

One the ground here in D3, the Sawant people have been out in force all over the Capitol Hill core.  My Recall Sawant yard sign has been stolen, I put up another one, it got stolen again, I put up another one, it got stolen again, so now I'm on my 4th one, and I bet by the time I finish writing this, it will have been stolen.

Put up a camera and record the car license plate number. 

I legitimately looked into this but the Recall campaign said people have already sent them these kinds of videos and they can't do anything with them so there's no point.
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RI
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« Reply #6059 on: December 02, 2021, 12:12:16 PM »

Only one week to go until the Sawant Recall election.

One the ground here in D3, the Sawant people have been out in force all over the Capitol Hill core.  My Recall Sawant yard sign has been stolen, I put up another one, it got stolen again, I put up another one, it got stolen again, so now I'm on my 4th one, and I bet by the time I finish writing this, it will have been stolen.

Put up a camera and record the car license plate number.

Even if he did, there's no way Seattle PD would do anything about it.
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« Reply #6060 on: December 02, 2021, 12:30:18 PM »

I think Sawant was able to successfully frame the 2019 election as a referendum on Amazon and big money (at least somewhat) and people who weren't big fans of her were willing to hold their nose and vote for her as a way of expressing discontent with the amount Amazon donated to the city council positions. I don't think this is going to work in her favor this time around, and the pro-Sawant crowd hasn't done themselves any favors with some of their more aggressive tactics. While calling it the "right-wing recall" may sway some people, I think people have had enough, and that she goes down by between 5 and 10%.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #6061 on: December 02, 2021, 01:07:26 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2021, 01:11:47 PM by StateBoiler »

Only one week to go until the Sawant Recall election.

One the ground here in D3, the Sawant people have been out in force all over the Capitol Hill core.  My Recall Sawant yard sign has been stolen, I put up another one, it got stolen again, I put up another one, it got stolen again, so now I'm on my 4th one, and I bet by the time I finish writing this, it will have been stolen.

Put up a camera and record the car license plate number.

I legitimately looked into this but the Recall campaign said people have already sent them these kinds of videos and they can't do anything with them so there's no point.

Sure, but you can just publicize and kill any career in politics that person wanted to have. If it's a guy working for Sawant's party, it's a bonus for you considering you don't like them.

Lie in wait, have your phone on, guy comes up, start recording. "Hi, you're trespassing my yard. What are you doing removing my sign from it? What's your name? Oh that's a nice Hyundai you have there. I see your license plate number is AK1964." Then put it on social media. Cheesy
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #6062 on: December 02, 2021, 01:19:56 PM »

Only one week to go until the Sawant Recall election.

One the ground here in D3, the Sawant people have been out in force all over the Capitol Hill core.  My Recall Sawant yard sign has been stolen, I put up another one, it got stolen again, I put up another one, it got stolen again, so now I'm on my 4th one, and I bet by the time I finish writing this, it will have been stolen.

Put up a camera and record the car license plate number.

I legitimately looked into this but the Recall campaign said people have already sent them these kinds of videos and they can't do anything with them so there's no point.

Sure, but you can just publicize and kill any career in politics that person wanted to have. If it's a guy working for Sawant's party, it's a bonus for you considering you don't like them.

Lie in wait, have your phone on, guy comes up, start recording. "Hi, you're trespassing my yard. What are you doing removing my sign from it? What's your name? Oh that's a nice Hyundai you have there. I see your license plate number is AK1964." Then put it on social media. Cheesy

It doesn't matter.  Four years ago Nikkita Oliver recorded -- on their own phone! -- a security video of themself harrassing a Safeway security guard and calling him a white supremacist.  They ended up getting the guy fired just because Safeway wanted to avoid the hassle.  A few months earlier they claimed on social media that they were attacked by a dog and then lost for hours in the wild forests of West Seattle.  This insanity was all in 2017 shortly after they lost the mayoral primary to Cary Moon.  And yet four years later they were a serious candidate for city council and nobody remembered/cared that they did all this crazy s--t.
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PSOL
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« Reply #6063 on: December 04, 2021, 12:21:05 AM »

I think Sawant was able to successfully frame the 2019 election as a referendum on Amazon and big money (at least somewhat) and people who weren't big fans of her were willing to hold their nose and vote for her as a way of expressing discontent with the amount Amazon donated to the city council positions. I don't think this is going to work in her favor this time around, and the pro-Sawant crowd hasn't done themselves any favors with some of their more aggressive tactics. While calling it the "right-wing recall" may sway some people, I think people have had enough, and that she goes down by between 5 and 10%.
They were able to do so because it is the truth, the billionaires and other elite, but mainly the billionaires are the ones against her



This isn’t a matter of “tactics” dragging her down, indeed SAlt plays the game by an already biased rule set that I’ve explained here and in the third party thread beforehand, but of the core base of her support getting squeezed by the pandemic and it’s wider effects draining their livelihoods. A more exhausted and bankrupt group of supporters can’t chip in or do party work as well as what the elite class can pay with money and utilize already existing infrastructure—employer associations, lobbyists, the corporate media, even the government itself through setting the date separate from the rest of the election as a ploy to hope more transient and precarious people won’t show up to vote twice— to bring her down pound for pound.
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« Reply #6064 on: December 04, 2021, 02:26:33 PM »

I can't stand that they are labeling it as a 'right-wing recall'. The recall has pulled from folks across the spectrum, including many progressives. Feels like a misstep in my mind and one that could backfire for the Sawant campaign as they essentially make the claim 'either you are with us or you are right-wing'.
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PSOL
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« Reply #6065 on: December 04, 2021, 02:28:00 PM »
« Edited: December 04, 2021, 02:50:04 PM by PSOL »

I can't stand that they are labeling it as a 'right-wing recall'. It has pulled from folks across the spectrum, including many progressives. Feels like a misstep in my mind and one that could backfire for the Sawant campaign as they essentially make the claim 'either you are with us or you are right-wing'.
Well the donors to the campaign and the rhetoric coming from the Washington Times does make it seem lopsided in that direction.

What this proves is that in recalls and in other elections, Democrats will accept the support of the progressives and socialists within and outside the party to help mainstream candidates, but in any situation outside of that then Democratic leadership would rather support republicans than support even progressive Democrats. This was evident in Buffalo, and it is evident in Seattle for the DA race and this recall.
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« Reply #6066 on: December 04, 2021, 04:55:06 PM »



This is pretty good PR to lower-engagement voters on paper- exactly the kind of coalition a more left-wing candidate would want in a heavily under-40, progressive big-city environment.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #6067 on: December 04, 2021, 09:09:50 PM »



This is pretty good PR to lower-engagement voters on paper- exactly the kind of coalition a more left-wing candidate would want in a heavily under-40, progressive big-city environment.

What does "top donors" mean?  Everyone has a limit of $1,000.  Are there really that many CEOs in Seattle?  Or did the Sawant campaign just cherry-pick a few of the people who donated $1,000 (there are hundreds) so they can say that CEOs are some of the "top donors"?

They've been using this "top donors" language all over the place.  Makes it seem like it's just a few people funding the Recall.  There are hundreds upon hundreds of people who have donated the max amount of $1,000 -- all of those people are equally at the top of the donor roll.  And they come from a diverse array of professions.
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« Reply #6068 on: December 04, 2021, 09:43:48 PM »

I think Sawant was able to successfully frame the 2019 election as a referendum on Amazon and big money (at least somewhat) and people who weren't big fans of her were willing to hold their nose and vote for her as a way of expressing discontent with the amount Amazon donated to the city council positions. I don't think this is going to work in her favor this time around, and the pro-Sawant crowd hasn't done themselves any favors with some of their more aggressive tactics. While calling it the "right-wing recall" may sway some people, I think people have had enough, and that she goes down by between 5 and 10%.
They were able to do so because it is the truth, the billionaires and other elite, but mainly the billionaires are the ones against her



This isn’t a matter of “tactics” dragging her down, indeed SAlt plays the game by an already biased rule set that I’ve explained here and in the third party thread beforehand, but of the core base of her support getting squeezed by the pandemic and it’s wider effects draining their livelihoods. A more exhausted and bankrupt group of supporters can’t chip in or do party work as well as what the elite class can pay with money and utilize already existing infrastructure—employer associations, lobbyists, the corporate media, even the government itself through setting the date separate from the rest of the election as a ploy to hope more transient and precarious people won’t show up to vote twice— to bring her down pound for pound.


Lol the tech worker probably makes more than retired people , real estate agents and many business owners
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PSOL
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« Reply #6069 on: December 04, 2021, 11:50:01 PM »

I think Sawant was able to successfully frame the 2019 election as a referendum on Amazon and big money (at least somewhat) and people who weren't big fans of her were willing to hold their nose and vote for her as a way of expressing discontent with the amount Amazon donated to the city council positions. I don't think this is going to work in her favor this time around, and the pro-Sawant crowd hasn't done themselves any favors with some of their more aggressive tactics. While calling it the "right-wing recall" may sway some people, I think people have had enough, and that she goes down by between 5 and 10%.
They were able to do so because it is the truth, the billionaires and other elite, but mainly the billionaires are the ones against her



This isn’t a matter of “tactics” dragging her down, indeed SAlt plays the game by an already biased rule set that I’ve explained here and in the third party thread beforehand, but of the core base of her support getting squeezed by the pandemic and it’s wider effects draining their livelihoods. A more exhausted and bankrupt group of supporters can’t chip in or do party work as well as what the elite class can pay with money and utilize already existing infrastructure—employer associations, lobbyists, the corporate media, even the government itself through setting the date separate from the rest of the election as a ploy to hope more transient and precarious people won’t show up to vote twice— to bring her down pound for pound.


Lol the tech worker probably makes more than retired people , real estate agents and many business owners
The term code monkey and crunch exists for a reason. This isn’t the 2000s, a significant amount of tech workers in our service-oriented economy don’t make middle class salaries anymore. And among those voting for Sawant, they skew towards the lower rungs of the payscale.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #6070 on: December 05, 2021, 01:56:27 PM »

I think Sawant was able to successfully frame the 2019 election as a referendum on Amazon and big money (at least somewhat) and people who weren't big fans of her were willing to hold their nose and vote for her as a way of expressing discontent with the amount Amazon donated to the city council positions. I don't think this is going to work in her favor this time around, and the pro-Sawant crowd hasn't done themselves any favors with some of their more aggressive tactics. While calling it the "right-wing recall" may sway some people, I think people have had enough, and that she goes down by between 5 and 10%.
They were able to do so because it is the truth, the billionaires and other elite, but mainly the billionaires are the ones against her



This isn’t a matter of “tactics” dragging her down, indeed SAlt plays the game by an already biased rule set that I’ve explained here and in the third party thread beforehand, but of the core base of her support getting squeezed by the pandemic and it’s wider effects draining their livelihoods. A more exhausted and bankrupt group of supporters can’t chip in or do party work as well as what the elite class can pay with money and utilize already existing infrastructure—employer associations, lobbyists, the corporate media, even the government itself through setting the date separate from the rest of the election as a ploy to hope more transient and precarious people won’t show up to vote twice— to bring her down pound for pound.


Lol the tech worker probably makes more than retired people , real estate agents and many business owners
The term code monkey and crunch exists for a reason. This isn’t the 2000s, a significant amount of tech workers in our service-oriented economy don’t make middle class salaries anymore. And among those voting for Sawant, they skew towards the lower rungs of the payscale.

The ones who live in Seattle almost all work for top-5 firms.  Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Facebook.  You can go aggregate her donor roll by individual employer if you want to prove me wrong.
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PSOL
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« Reply #6071 on: December 05, 2021, 09:58:24 PM »

I think Sawant was able to successfully frame the 2019 election as a referendum on Amazon and big money (at least somewhat) and people who weren't big fans of her were willing to hold their nose and vote for her as a way of expressing discontent with the amount Amazon donated to the city council positions. I don't think this is going to work in her favor this time around, and the pro-Sawant crowd hasn't done themselves any favors with some of their more aggressive tactics. While calling it the "right-wing recall" may sway some people, I think people have had enough, and that she goes down by between 5 and 10%.
They were able to do so because it is the truth, the billionaires and other elite, but mainly the billionaires are the ones against her



This isn’t a matter of “tactics” dragging her down, indeed SAlt plays the game by an already biased rule set that I’ve explained here and in the third party thread beforehand, but of the core base of her support getting squeezed by the pandemic and it’s wider effects draining their livelihoods. A more exhausted and bankrupt group of supporters can’t chip in or do party work as well as what the elite class can pay with money and utilize already existing infrastructure—employer associations, lobbyists, the corporate media, even the government itself through setting the date separate from the rest of the election as a ploy to hope more transient and precarious people won’t show up to vote twice— to bring her down pound for pound.


Lol the tech worker probably makes more than retired people , real estate agents and many business owners
The term code monkey and crunch exists for a reason. This isn’t the 2000s, a significant amount of tech workers in our service-oriented economy don’t make middle class salaries anymore. And among those voting for Sawant, they skew towards the lower rungs of the payscale.

The ones who live in Seattle almost all work for top-5 firms.  Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Facebook.  You can go aggregate her donor roll by individual employer if you want to prove me wrong.
Working in a “top-5” firm does not mean one is payed well, or what their work is worth, for life in Seattle. Microsoft, Google, and Amazon in particular treat their lower-paygrade workers like dog••••, and the pay compared to video game coders ain’t that pretty either. That’s the nature of service work now.

Among those voting for Kshama Sawant, they’re on the lower end of the average.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #6072 on: December 06, 2021, 06:28:58 PM »

Lol you're 100% talking out of your ass.  Oh it's only the poor working-class techies supporting Sawant.  Once they reach senior or principal level they become recall supporters.  Come on man.

Go look up her top donors on LinkedIn.  It's not the poor working class proletariat.  It's rich tech workers who came here from California and think having a communist on the city council is quirky and cool.  The ones who actually live in Seattle, that is.  Most of her top donors are people who live thousands of miles away and couldn't find Capitol Hill on a map, like you.
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« Reply #6073 on: December 07, 2021, 12:36:26 PM »

I think Sawant was able to successfully frame the 2019 election as a referendum on Amazon and big money (at least somewhat) and people who weren't big fans of her were willing to hold their nose and vote for her as a way of expressing discontent with the amount Amazon donated to the city council positions. I don't think this is going to work in her favor this time around, and the pro-Sawant crowd hasn't done themselves any favors with some of their more aggressive tactics. While calling it the "right-wing recall" may sway some people, I think people have had enough, and that she goes down by between 5 and 10%.
They were able to do so because it is the truth, the billionaires and other elite, but mainly the billionaires are the ones against her



This isn’t a matter of “tactics” dragging her down, indeed SAlt plays the game by an already biased rule set that I’ve explained here and in the third party thread beforehand, but of the core base of her support getting squeezed by the pandemic and it’s wider effects draining their livelihoods. A more exhausted and bankrupt group of supporters can’t chip in or do party work as well as what the elite class can pay with money and utilize already existing infrastructure—employer associations, lobbyists, the corporate media, even the government itself through setting the date separate from the rest of the election as a ploy to hope more transient and precarious people won’t show up to vote twice— to bring her down pound for pound.

I wasn't saying that it isn't true that Amazon poured tons of money into city council races in 2019, the point is that they did, and that Sawant was able to put the focus primarily on this, to get some voters who were lukewarm about her to support her. At this point, I don't believe that class is the driving factor in support for the recall. There are plenty of working class people here who are quite progressive, but want someone other than Sawant. I'm not saying that there isn't also big money behind recalling Sawant, but that doesn't mean that there aren't legitimate reasons to want a different progressive.
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PSOL
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« Reply #6074 on: December 07, 2021, 01:44:16 PM »

I think Sawant was able to successfully frame the 2019 election as a referendum on Amazon and big money (at least somewhat) and people who weren't big fans of her were willing to hold their nose and vote for her as a way of expressing discontent with the amount Amazon donated to the city council positions. I don't think this is going to work in her favor this time around, and the pro-Sawant crowd hasn't done themselves any favors with some of their more aggressive tactics. While calling it the "right-wing recall" may sway some people, I think people have had enough, and that she goes down by between 5 and 10%.
They were able to do so because it is the truth, the billionaires and other elite, but mainly the billionaires are the ones against her



This isn’t a matter of “tactics” dragging her down, indeed SAlt plays the game by an already biased rule set that I’ve explained here and in the third party thread beforehand, but of the core base of her support getting squeezed by the pandemic and it’s wider effects draining their livelihoods. A more exhausted and bankrupt group of supporters can’t chip in or do party work as well as what the elite class can pay with money and utilize already existing infrastructure—employer associations, lobbyists, the corporate media, even the government itself through setting the date separate from the rest of the election as a ploy to hope more transient and precarious people won’t show up to vote twice— to bring her down pound for pound.

I wasn't saying that it isn't true that Amazon poured tons of money into city council races in 2019, the point is that they did, and that Sawant was able to put the focus primarily on this, to get some voters who were lukewarm about her to support her. At this point, I don't believe that class is the driving factor in support for the recall. There are plenty of working class people here who are quite progressive, but want someone other than Sawant. I'm not saying that there isn't also big money behind recalling Sawant, but that doesn't mean that there aren't legitimate reasons to want a different progressive.
Well certainly the money has been well spent in lying to the upper strata of temporarily embarrassed middle class people to vote Yes.
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