Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[lfromnj]

Xing how close would you place yourself to the median voter in Seattle ?

Hard to say, maybe I’m somewhat close to the median? There are definitely voters to my right here, especially on economic issues, but there are also a fair amount of very far left-wing people here (though it does sort of depend on how left and right are defined), and I’m sort of in this no man’s land between the more moderate Democrats and the hardcore socialists. Gun to my head, the median voter is a hair to my right on economic issues and a hair to my left on social issues.

Yeah I figured you would be pretty close to the median. Should be a decent sign for Davison but you are definitely super high info .

[GeneralMacArthur]

Xing how close would you place yourself to the median voter in Seattle ?

Hard to say, maybe I’m somewhat close to the median? There are definitely voters to my right here, especially on economic issues, but there are also a fair amount of very far left-wing people here (though it does sort of depend on how left and right are defined), and I’m sort of in this no man’s land between the more moderate Democrats and the hardcore socialists. Gun to my head, the median voter is a hair to my right on economic issues and a hair to my left on social issues.

Yeah I figured you would be pretty close to the median. Should be a decent sign for Davison but you are definitely super high info .

Xing, as our Seattle median voter, what's your take on the Sawant Recall?  Do you support it (I believe you said once you live in D3)?

I am part of the operation and have access to internal polling so I will tell you whether you are accurate directionally.  Not authorized to share the actual numbers.

[RI]

Xing how close would you place yourself to the median voter in Seattle ?

Hard to say, maybe I’m somewhat close to the median? There are definitely voters to my right here, especially on economic issues, but there are also a fair amount of very far left-wing people here (though it does sort of depend on how left and right are defined), and I’m sort of in this no man’s land between the more moderate Democrats and the hardcore socialists. Gun to my head, the median voter is a hair to my right on economic issues and a hair to my left on social issues.

Yeah I figured you would be pretty close to the median. Should be a decent sign for Davison but you are definitely super high info .

Xing, as our Seattle median voter, what's your take on the Sawant Recall?  Do you support it (I believe you said once you live in D3)?

I am part of the operation and have access to internal polling so I will tell you whether you are accurate directionally.  Not authorized to share the actual numbers.

Would love to know, too. I could see it going either way, but my gut instinct says that recalls are hard, and I don't know that Sawant has done enough to directly, negatively impact people's lives in District 3 for the recall to be successful. Would love to be wrong, though.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Would love to know, too. I could see it going either way, but my gut instinct says that recalls are hard, and I don't know that Sawant has done enough to directly, negatively impact people's lives in District 3 for the recall to be successful. Would love to be wrong, though.

I've talked to dozens if not hundreds of people about this race and here is the general sense I get:

A) Most people are vaguely aware that Sawant has done a lot of shady, illegal stuff.  Even if it's not specifically the things she's being recalled for (which are bad enough on their own), the impression has been built up over years of, for instance, taxpayers being forced to spend millions defending her in court.

B) Although people dislike Sawant personally, they do like her policies (or at least, what they perceive as her policies) and feel like she is useful for "pulling the council to the left" or "being a loud voice for moving this city to the left."

C) That said, most of the people I talk to had at least a weak impression that she's ineffective at actually getting things passed and doesn't accomplish anything on the city council.

D) People don't really buy the argument that the recall is a bunch of right-wing racist Republicans.  In general this seems more like a GOTV thing that is preaching to the choir and not an attempt at persuasion from Sawant.

E) The technical details of the recall effort are too confusing for anyone to understand and they think both sides are pulling shenanigans.  Nobody really wants to follow any of this or care about any of this, they just want to vote.


Put it all together and my argument is always: "We can replace Sawant with someone who believes the exact same things, but doesn't do all the illegal, horrible stuff.  We deserve someone who's not just going to be a loud voice but will actually be able to work with other people and deliver these things.  Sawant works better as an activist who pressures people to do things, not as someone who actually has to build coalitions and pass legislation."

The recall campaign isn't running on this playbook though.  They are hyper-focused on precise, data-driven GOTV efforts.

My theory of this race has remained unchanged for several months:  Sawant's strongest skill is being able to gin up anger and hatred.  A direct referendum on her, rather than a contest against an opponent she can ruthlessly demonize, is her worst nightmare.

[Xing]

I actually don’t live in District 3, but I would vote for the recall if I did. I used to think that Sawant was “necessary”, since I thought she was abrasive but at least worked in good faith toward solutions that would help with affordable housing and criminal justice reform, but I’ve come to see her as a grandstander who has done some pretty shady things. Looking back to 2019, I would’ve happily traded Sawant for Sean Scott, someone who shares a fair amount of her views but who would be a much more effective councilperson who wouldn’t seek as much attention.

As for whether it will be successful… if it were happening this November and were city-wide I think she would go down, and it probably wouldn’t be that close. Many who even support a lot of her views think she’s overstayed her welcome and isn’t actually helping address the homelessness crisis or bring about reform to the criminal justice system. However, since it’s not until December, turnout is naturally going to be lower and more concentrated among those who are engaged, and the fact that opponents have labeled it the “right wing” recall is probably going to turn some people off from it. Plus, Capitol Hill is the kind of place where Sawant is going to have a strong base of support, and some who don’t like her might still think that the recall is a waste of time and money. I think it’s going to be close, and I’m hoping my union doesn’t donate to help her, especially since there’s not a clear consensus among members, and some of my coworkers were privately not happy about the union considering this. If I had to guess, I think she’s at a slight disadvantage, but it’s far from guaranteed that the recall will be successful.

[PSOL]

Socialist Alternative’s website and Kshama Sawant’s main Twitter isn’t even focusing on the race today, they’ve been focusing on the recall for months now. Seems like they know that the progressive coalition expects to win maybe one or two races and that they’ve been saving up and preparing people for the Recall.

The race a month from now will be an incredibly competitive race, perhaps the most competitive SAlt has ever faced on account of the millions being invested against them by Suburban business money and the fact the ISA is flat broke from the pandemic and hasn’t invested in net gaining base building activity such as establishing workers collectives in it being “ultra-leftism”.

Still, SAlt and Kshama Sawant have immense ties within her district that will be hard for the machine to be easily beaten. I think tonight’s race will be vital in whether she will be recalled or not. If the progressive options win 51% or more in her district, their machine along with the help of all the other progressives should push them over the edge given they are much more energized for December.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Anyone know what time we can expect the initial returns tonight?  The race will take over a week to truly be done but if Harrell or Davison has like a +25 margin on election night it should be safe to call.

[RI]

Anyone know what time we can expect the initial returns tonight?  The race will take over a week to truly be done but if Harrell or Davison has like a +25 margin on election night it should be safe to call.

Usually about 8:15.

[RI]

Harrell, Davidson up big in Seattle.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrandiKruse/status/1455736267140841477

[RI]

The capital gains tax is so unpopular even King County wants to repeal it.

[Spectator]

The most embarrassing part of the night for Dems is that a Republican likely just won a race in Seattle.

[Xing]

Harrell has definitely won, Nelson almost certainly has, too (expected this race to be a bit closer, though her lead will probably shrink a bit), and since progressives usually gain in later ballots, Mosqueda likely wins as well. Davison is definitely favored, her lead will probably shrink, but there likely aren’t enough ballots left for NTK to catch up. Will likely end up a bit closer than my prediction, though.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Harrell +38K
Nelson +27K
Davison +22K

This is with 130K reporting.  The 2019 elections had about 250K turnout.

So I'm certainly not popping the champagne... there are still 120K late returns left that will result in dramatic swings towards the crazy candidates.

That said I think Harrell is pretty safe.

[PSOL]

The most embarrassing part of the night for Dems is that a Republican likely just won a race in Seattle.

Well that happens when the Democratic Party throws the progressives under the bus and form a grand coalition with the Republican Party with their billionaire-backed media blitz. Ultimately the progressive coalition could not beat it, in part due to Covid leaving them more cash strapped and with fewer core members (due to extraneous deaths) than usual, and in part with the progressive coalition failing to build dual power by not entrenching themselves—who right now are the most interconnected bloc with their voters and the public since the Socialist Party was relevant—even further into their voter base.

[GeneralMacArthur]

The most embarrassing part of the night for Dems is that a Republican likely just won a race in Seattle.

It's extremely embarrassing for the WA Dems that any of them endorsed NTK in the first place, much less Shasti Conrad (KC Dems chair) being on her payroll.

NTK is not a Democrat.  She did not vote for Joe Biden.  Her campaign manager said she hoped Biden dies and praised Trump for being more lucid and intelligent than Biden.  There is no excuse for Democrats to be endorsing this awful candidate.

[Spectator]

The most embarrassing part of the night for Dems is that a Republican likely just won a race in Seattle.

Well that happens when the Democratic Party throws the progressives under the bus and form a grand coalition with the Republican Party with their billionaire-backed media blitz. Ultimately the progressive coalition could not beat it, in part due to Covid leaving them more cash strapped and with fewer core members (due to extraneous deaths) than usual, and in part with the progressive coalition failing to build dual power by not entrenching themselves—who right now are the most interconnected bloc with their voters and the public since the Socialist Party was relevant—even further into their voter base.

LOL Dems just lost an 80% Dem city, there’s no one to blame it on except for the psychotic candidate who wanted to abolish the police

[PSOL]

The most embarrassing part of the night for Dems is that a Republican likely just won a race in Seattle.

Well that happens when the Democratic Party throws the progressives under the bus and form a grand coalition with the Republican Party with their billionaire-backed media blitz. Ultimately the progressive coalition could not beat it, in part due to Covid leaving them more cash strapped and with fewer core members (due to extraneous deaths) than usual, and in part with the progressive coalition failing to build dual power by not entrenching themselves—who right now are the most interconnected bloc with their voters and the public since the Socialist Party was relevant—even further into their voter base.

LOL Dems just lost an 80% Dem city, there’s no one to blame it on except for the psychotic candidate who wanted to abolish the police

That is wrong, the Progressive coalition lost tonight, not establishment Dems

[GeneralMacArthur]

Right, Harrell is an establishment Dem and ran a standard Dem campaign and it's looking like a landslide victory over the pathetic fraud Gonzalez.

[Xing]

Harrell is honestly decently progressive, and his tenure on the council isn’t exactly that of a right-winger. Anyway, a good rule of thumb would be to add 5-6% to the candidate further left (or the one considered further left.) Sean Scott was down by about the same as NTK on Election Night, and he lost by 4 in the end. Might not play out the same way with later votes this year, but that’s just something to keep in mind.

[Left Wing]

It honestly depends on the candidate with that too, I mean Sawant was down by like 12 on election night in 2019 and won by four in the end, a similar outperformance could translate to like a one point Davison win. A lot of it really depends on how voting patterns since 2019 have changed

[smoltchanov]

The most embarrassing part of the night for Dems is that a Republican likely just won a race in Seattle.

Well that happens when the Democratic Party throws the progressives under the bus and form a grand coalition with the Republican Party with their billionaire-backed media blitz. Ultimately the progressive coalition could not beat it, in part due to Covid leaving them more cash strapped and with fewer core members (due to extraneous deaths) than usual, and in part with the progressive coalition failing to build dual power by not entrenching themselves—who right now are the most interconnected bloc with their voters and the public since the Socialist Party was relevant—even further into their voter base.

LOL Dems just lost an 80% Dem city, there’s no one to blame it on except for the psychotic candidate who wanted to abolish the police

+101%. Luckily "progressives" also lost referendum in Minneapolis and, most likely, mayorality in Buffalo. May be all that will make Democratic party more sane and less "Trump in reverse.."

[smoltchanov]

The most embarrassing part of the night for Dems is that a Republican likely just won a race in Seattle.

Well that happens when the Democratic Party throws the progressives under the bus and form a grand coalition with the Republican Party with their billionaire-backed media blitz. Ultimately the progressive coalition could not beat it, in part due to Covid leaving them more cash strapped and with fewer core members (due to extraneous deaths) than usual, and in part with the progressive coalition failing to build dual power by not entrenching themselves—who right now are the most interconnected bloc with their voters and the public since the Socialist Party was relevant—even further into their voter base.

LOL Dems just lost an 80% Dem city, there’s no one to blame it on except for the psychotic candidate who wanted to abolish the police

That is wrong, the Progressive coalition lost tonight, not establishment Dems

And thanks God for that....!!!

[Xing]

Got our first update, not a big change, Davison’s lead is down percentage-wise slightly to 16%, but her raw vote lead is up slightly to 24K, so that’s a good sign for her, but still a lot left to count.

[PSOL]

The important thing to note here are the results in Kshama Sawant’s district.