Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Utah Neolib]

Wyman is a great choice to lead this.

[bgwah]

I have some hypotheses about how Republicans might be able to put together a winning coalition, but doing so requires some major re-thinking of the electoral playing field which I don't think the state party is willing to consider at this time.

Do tell!

Alright, here's one of my ideas on how WA Republicans could put together a winning statewide coalition:

The most important thing to note here is that, for all intents and purposes, the core three counties of King, Snohomish, and Pierce are where the winner is decided. If a Republican wants to win the state, they need to win Pierce by a fair margin and at the very least come very close to winning Snohomish if not win it outright. They also need to keep the margin manageable in King; the absolute outer limit of how much they can lose King by is probably about 65-35 depending on how well they do elsewhere.

Traditionally, this manifested as winning cities like Sammamish, Newcastle, University Place, Bothell, Edmonds, Mukilteo, Mill Creek, etc. Basically anywhere higher in income and/or touching water not in Seattle.

However, I don't believe (outside of a few exceptions like Wyman) that this is a feasible strategy for Republicans in the short-to-medium term. These areas are exactly the types of areas which swung extremely hard away from Trump and the current Republican Party. Some of them may be able to be won back for a competent moderate-type, but these types of voters tend to be much more ideological and polarized. Fighting for these voters is swimming upstream against the current.

Instead, flip the script. Lean into the demographic and broader electoral changes which are happening and focus on lower income voters. Give up places like Sammamish and Edmonds. The goal should be to win over every possible voter outside of the white educated UMC. Go after Hispanics, Asians, Arabs, renters, union workers, and low-income workers of all stripes. Carve a red swath up and down Highway 99 to win Everett and maybe even Lynnwood from the inside out. Court voters in south King County: Kent, Auburn, Renton, Des Moines, even SeaTac. Bring down margins in southeast Seattle, White Center, Tukwila. Go after Lakewood, east Tacoma.

Here is a map, based on calculations from this thread, which shows the areas which have the highest prevalence of "simple" communitarian ideology and would likely be the richest targets as mentioned above: Image Link

Winning these types of voters also has secondary effects in potentially winning places like Pasco, Spokane north of I-90, and Skagit County while shoring up Yakima County. Kitsap would also almost certainly be more amenable to this type of party, outside of Bainbridge. The tricky part would be welding these voters on to existing Republican strengths without alienating too many of your own.

How do you actually win over these voters? That's a separate question I have some thoughts on, which I may post later.

In other words, the WA GOP needs Ann Davison to run for Governor in 2024.

Don't be stupid, WA GOP! Don't nominate another loser like Loren Culp. Nominate a brave and stunning woman like Ann Davison who can win in a landslide in 2024.

Why would she even run in the first place because if she loses the Governors race, I presume she'll probably lose the next election for City Attorney unless Thomas-Kennedy or another wacko gets in the runoff in 2025.

All the more reason to run for Governor in 2024!

Ann Davison will be the Charlie Baker or Phil Scott of WA.

The WA Dem Party is actively being taken over by a coalition of communists and anarchists. Washington is NOT a communist state. It is a LIBERAL state. And Ann Davison is going to teach radical Democrats a painful lesson, both in November 2021 and November 2024.

[RI]

Davison as the R nominee for Governor could potentially be an interesting choice, but she would certainly not make it through the primary unless the R vote was quite fractured. I don't think she really excites anyone on her own except as a foil to NTK, so I'm quite skeptical she could actually pull it off.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Outside of a couple of people, why is D-WA such a consistently terrible avatar?

[Xing]

Most statewide officeholders in Washington are not "loony" or "extreme" by any means. And no, lol, Davison is not winning as Governor (much less in a "landslide.") She's only winning this race because her opponent is a complete lunatic. Democrats are not about to get someone like Thomas Kennedy into the top two, so Davison would not have much of a chance.

[Ogre Mage]

Kim Wyman's appointment is a politically sly move by the Biden Administration.  It makes them look bipartisan and it destroys whatever small chance Wyman had of becoming governor.  Now that she is associated with the Biden Administration there is zero chance she would survive a Republican Primary.  But Wyman probably realized her chances were slim anyway after speaking out against the Traitor Tot's lies about voter fraud.

On Tuesday, Crosscut spoke with several people in state and local politics about whom they would like to see fill Wyman’s shoes. Here are some of the names that have been floating to the top.

https://crosscut.com/politics/2021/10/short-list-ideas-replace-kim-wyman-wa-secretary-state

[smoltchanov]

Wyman will take position in DHS, will be out as SoS.

Damn, that's a loss for us.  She's the only Republican I've ever voted for.

Well, Republicans managed to hold SoS seat since 1964 by running candidates like Wyman and Reed before her. But i doubt they have such candidates in this hyperpolarized mad world, where BOTH parties frequently run lunatics for office... (Seattle city attorney election is a good example)...

[Xing]

Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

[GeneralMacArthur]

Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

If this actually happens catch me staggering down Pike Street on a Tuesday night drunkenly singing Clap aloooong if you feel like happiness is the truth

[GeneralMacArthur]

Davison as the R nominee for Governor could potentially be an interesting choice, but she would certainly not make it through the primary unless the R vote was quite fractured. I don't think she really excites anyone on her own except as a foil to NTK, so I'm quite skeptical she could actually pull it off.

If Davison wins this race then she's probably just gonna sit on the city attorney's post for as long as she can.  It may be another banner race in 2026, but simply keeping the office functional and responsible like a normal city attorney's office, instead of the ideology-driven farce it became under Holmes, is her way outperforming on her own apparent motivation for entering local politics, which was  to stop the rising crime around the city (but particularly in North Seattle where she lives).

[Roll Roons]

Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

I really hope you're right about that one.

[letsgobrandon]

The sec of state election will be a safe r hold.

[lfromnj]

What percent of the vote will Davison get in Broadmoor?

It was like 27% Trump and 67% Wyman. It also narrowly voted for Romney in 2012.

[Roll Roons]

What percent of the vote will Davison get in Broadmoor?

It was like 27% Trump and 67% Wyman. It also narrowly voted for Romney in 2012.

She does even better than Wyman.

[PSOL]

Yeah, I am getting the feeling that I’m going to write a eulogy that stresses the importance of base building and the importance of collective workers councils.

Oh well, the show is going to continue after the intermission.

[lfromnj]

What percent of the vote will Davison get in Broadmoor?

It was like 27% Trump and 67% Wyman. It also narrowly voted for Romney in 2012.

She does even better than Wyman.

That much is obvious. The only question is how much

[ChineseConservative]

What percent of the vote will Davison get in Broadmoor?

It was like 27% Trump and 67% Wyman. It also narrowly voted for Romney in 2012.

She does even better than Wyman.

That much is obvious. The only question is how much

Nice Username. Easily the best democrat in the state legislature, a man of conviction and integrity. While I am a straight GOP ticket voter, if he ever runs for further office outside his senate district he will have fully earned my vote ahead of time.

[Xing]

Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

I really hope you're right about that one.

I’m pretty confident Davison will win. I have a difficult time imagining a Biden/NTK voter, and I know many Warren or Sanders/Davison voters (including myself.) Not to mention, my neighborhood is extremely Biden-friendly, has many BLM signs and Ive seen nothing but Davison signs. Given what I know about those further left than I am in this city, I don’t think there will be many “shy NTK voters.” It’s the Council Position 9 race that I’m the least sure about.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

If this actually happens catch me staggering down Pike Street on a Tuesday night drunkenly singing Clap aloooong if you feel like happiness is the truth

I hope you know how much everyone cringes when you write stupid sh**t like this. You also come across as extremely entitled.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

I really hope you're right about that one.

I’m pretty confident Davison will win. I have a difficult time imagining a Biden/NTK voter, and I know many Warren or Sanders/Davison voters (including myself.) Not to mention, my neighborhood is extremely Biden-friendly, has many BLM signs and Ive seen nothing but Davison signs. Given what I know about those further left than I am in this city, I don’t think there will be many “shy NTK voters.” It’s the Council Position 9 race that I’m the least sure about.

Serious question: what is exactly is attractive to you about a city attorney candidate who has only tried six cases in her life, enthusiastically supports "blue lives matter", has unsavory connections to someone involved in the January 6 riot, doesn't support mask mandates, and doesn't support LGBT-related education in schools? I mean, we know why Gmac supports her, and it's because he's an unashamed Republican hack. But your support is a lot more baffling.

[Xing]

Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

I really hope you're right about that one.

I’m pretty confident Davison will win. I have a difficult time imagining a Biden/NTK voter, and I know many Warren or Sanders/Davison voters (including myself.) Not to mention, my neighborhood is extremely Biden-friendly, has many BLM signs and Ive seen nothing but Davison signs. Given what I know about those further left than I am in this city, I don’t think there will be many “shy NTK voters.” It’s the Council Position 9 race that I’m the least sure about.

Serious question: what is exactly is attractive to you about a city attorney candidate who has only tried six cases in her life, enthusiastically supports "blue lives matter", has unsavory connections to someone involved in the January 6 riot, doesn't support mask mandates, and doesn't support LGBT-related education in schools? I mean, we know why Gmac supports her, and it's because he's an unashamed Republican hack. But your support is a lot more baffling.

My vote is a purely anti-NTK vote. She literally wants to abolish the police and cheers on property damage, among many other crazy things. I may be quite left-wing, but that’s a bridge too far even for me. I don’t have high hopes for Davison, though.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

I really hope you're right about that one.

I’m pretty confident Davison will win. I have a difficult time imagining a Biden/NTK voter, and I know many Warren or Sanders/Davison voters (including myself.) Not to mention, my neighborhood is extremely Biden-friendly, has many BLM signs and Ive seen nothing but Davison signs. Given what I know about those further left than I am in this city, I don’t think there will be many “shy NTK voters.” It’s the Council Position 9 race that I’m the least sure about.

Serious question: what is exactly is attractive to you about a city attorney candidate who has only tried six cases in her life, enthusiastically supports "blue lives matter", has unsavory connections to someone involved in the January 6 riot, doesn't support mask mandates, and doesn't support LGBT-related education in schools? I mean, we know why Gmac supports her, and it's because he's an unashamed Republican hack. But your support is a lot more baffling.

My vote is a purely anti-NTK vote. She literally wants to abolish the police and cheers on property damage, among many other crazy things. I may be quite left-wing, but that’s a bridge too far even for me. I don’t have high hopes for Davison, though.

That really doesn't sound like an accurate evaluation of her views. Davison, on the other hand, is running solely out of racist NIMBYism and a desire to see petty criminals get long jail sentences. If anything, vote for neither - but NTK is a vote against a lot of the inequality in the criminal justice system that continues to be pervasive, so that would be an obvious vote for me.

[Xing]

Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

I really hope you're right about that one.

I’m pretty confident Davison will win. I have a difficult time imagining a Biden/NTK voter, and I know many Warren or Sanders/Davison voters (including myself.) Not to mention, my neighborhood is extremely Biden-friendly, has many BLM signs and Ive seen nothing but Davison signs. Given what I know about those further left than I am in this city, I don’t think there will be many “shy NTK voters.” It’s the Council Position 9 race that I’m the least sure about.

Serious question: what is exactly is attractive to you about a city attorney candidate who has only tried six cases in her life, enthusiastically supports "blue lives matter", has unsavory connections to someone involved in the January 6 riot, doesn't support mask mandates, and doesn't support LGBT-related education in schools? I mean, we know why Gmac supports her, and it's because he's an unashamed Republican hack. But your support is a lot more baffling.

My vote is a purely anti-NTK vote. She literally wants to abolish the police and cheers on property damage, among many other crazy things. I may be quite left-wing, but that’s a bridge too far even for me. I don’t have high hopes for Davison, though.

That really doesn't sound like an accurate evaluation of her views. Davison, on the other hand, is running solely out of racist NIMBYism and a desire to see petty criminals get long jail sentences. If anything, vote for neither - but NTK is a vote against a lot of the inequality in the criminal justice system that continues to be pervasive, so that would be an obvious vote for me.

I didn’t want to believe it, but her Tweets really do speak for themselves, and an insincere “apology” (if we want to call it that) isn’t enough to convince me otherwise. She literally calls herself an abolitionist, and while there is absolutely a lot wrong with law enforcement, and simply throwing more people in prison is not going to solve issues of rising crime and homelessness in Seattle, neither will abolishing the police and not prosecuting any minor crimes. I’m not sure if Davison is motivated by NIMBYism so much as opportunism, and as I said, I don’t like her and would’ve definitely voted for Holmes over her, but it’s a two person race now, and I can’t allow someone like NTK to win.

[lfromnj]

Xing how close would you place yourself to the median voter in Seattle ?

[Xing]

Xing how close would you place yourself to the median voter in Seattle ?

Hard to say, maybe I’m somewhat close to the median? There are definitely voters to my right here, especially on economic issues, but there are also a fair amount of very far left-wing people here (though it does sort of depend on how left and right are defined), and I’m sort of in this no man’s land between the more moderate Democrats and the hardcore socialists. Gun to my head, the median voter is a hair to my right on economic issues and a hair to my left on social issues.