Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Xing]

So if Inslee takes off for a role in the Biden administration how does the special election for Governor work?

Is there a primary or is there just one big free-for-all ballot?

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think there is a special election. I think Denny Heck would just become governor serve out the rest of Inslee's term.

It’s my understanding that Heck would temporarily serve as Governor, but that there would be a special election next November. I could be wrong, though.

[Seattle]

So if Inslee takes off for a role in the Biden administration how does the special election for Governor work?

Is there a primary or is there just one big free-for-all ballot?

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think there is a special election. I think Denny Heck would just become governor serve out the rest of Inslee's term.

It’s my understanding that Heck would temporarily serve as Governor, but that there would be a special election next November. I could be wrong, though.

From a recent Seattle Times article:

An election would then be called to fill out the remainder of Inslee’s term. It would be held in 2021 if Inslee quit before that year’s May 15 candidate filing deadline, and in 2022 if he resigned later.

[Seattle]

With King county certification this past Tuesday, here's how King County cities voted (Bothell, Pacific, and Auburn results are inclusive of their appendages into Snohomish/Pierce counties):

Basic takeaway is that the Eastside now votes like inner suburbs (quite a few >80% Biden precincts in Shoreline/Lake Forest Park/Redmond(!)/Mercer Island.

City                      Biden                   Trump              Other
Seattle                  88.45                   9.11                2.43
Lake Forest Park    80.59                   16.38               3.02
Shoreline              78.92                   18.30               2.79
Mercer Island        75.89                    21.52              2.49
Redmond              74.84                    21.90              3.27
Kenmore               73.65                   23.25               3.10
Tukwila                 73.09                   24.23               2.68
Issaquah               72.82                   24.33               2.85
Kirkland                72.60                   24.23               3.17
Beaux Art Village    71.78                  24.07               4.15
Burien                   71.98                  25.33                2.69
Bellevue                71.30                   25.81               2.89
Sammamish          70.84                   26.25                2.91 (! Voted for Obama by like 5 in '12)
Yarrow Point          70.69                   26.29                3.02 (! Literally voted for Romney)
Woodinville            70.03                  26.79                 3.17

Newcastle              69.15                  27.71                 3.15
Bothell                  68.86                   27.77                3.37 (King Co portion is >70 Biden)
SeaTac                  69.12                   28.17                2.71
Renton                  68.98                   28.09                2.93
Normandy Park      68.00                   29.50                2.50
Duvall                   67.01                   28.95                4.05 (I think Romney won here too)
Des Moines            67.04                   30.21                2.75
Snoqualmie            65.75                  30.62                 3.62
Medina                  65.52                   31.71                2.77
Kent                      64.50                   32.32                3.18
Clyde Hill               63.73                   33.19                3.08 (Voted for Romney)
Federal Way           63.25                   33.86                2.89
Carnation               62.78                   33.15                4.07
North Bend             62.48                   33.60                3.92
Hunts Point             59.42                   39.29                1.30 (Voted for Romney)
Auburn                   57.90                   39.00                3.10 (Pierce part voted to the left of King)
Maple Valley            56.31                   39.95                3.74 (50/50 in 2012)
Covington               55.98                   40.38                 3.71 (50/50 in 2012)
Algona                    52.65                   45.38                1.97 (This 51-46 Kerry, has barely budged)
Pacific                     50.85                   46.14                3.01

Black Diamond         46.52                  50.54                 2.94
Enumclaw                43.93                  52.76                 3.30

[Skye]

With King county certification this past Tuesday, here's how King County cities voted (Bothell, Pacific, and Auburn results are inclusive of their appendages into Snohomish/Pierce counties):

Basic takeaway is that the Eastside now votes like inner suburbs (quite a few >80% Biden precincts in Shoreline/Lake Forest Park/Redmond(!)/Mercer Island.

City                      Biden                   Trump              Other
Seattle                  88.45                   9.11                2.43
Lake Forest Park    80.59                   16.38               3.02
Shoreline              78.92                   18.30               2.79
Mercer Island        75.89                    21.52              2.49
Redmond              74.84                    21.90              3.27
Kenmore               73.65                   23.25               3.10
Tukwila                 73.09                   24.23               2.68
Issaquah               72.82                   24.33               2.85
Kirkland                72.60                   24.23               3.17
Beaux Art Village    71.78                  24.07               4.15
Burien                   71.98                  25.33                2.69
Bellevue                71.30                   25.81               2.89
Sammamish          70.84                   26.25                2.91 (! Voted for Obama by like 5 in '12)
Yarrow Point          70.69                   26.29                3.02 (! Literally voted for Romney)
Woodinville            70.03                  26.79                 3.17

Newcastle              69.15                  27.71                 3.15
Bothell                  68.86                   27.77                3.37 (King Co portion is >70 Biden)
SeaTac                  69.12                   28.17                2.71
Renton                  68.98                   28.09                2.93
Normandy Park      68.00                   29.50                2.50
Duvall                   67.01                   28.95                4.05 (I think Romney won here too)
Des Moines            67.04                   30.21                2.75
Snoqualmie            65.75                  30.62                 3.62
Medina                  65.52                   31.71                2.77
Kent                      64.50                   32.32                3.18
Clyde Hill               63.73                   33.19                3.08 (Voted for Romney)
Federal Way           63.25                   33.86                2.89
Carnation               62.78                   33.15                4.07
North Bend             62.48                   33.60                3.92
Hunts Point             59.42                   39.29                1.30 (Voted for Romney)
Auburn                   57.90                   39.00                3.10 (Pierce part voted to the left of King)
Maple Valley            56.31                   39.95                3.74 (50/50 in 2012)
Covington               55.98                   40.38                 3.71 (50/50 in 2012)
Algona                    52.65                   45.38                1.97 (This 51-46 Kerry, has barely budged)
Pacific                     50.85                   46.14                3.01

Black Diamond         46.52                  50.54                 2.94
Enumclaw                43.93                  52.76                 3.30

Post this in the 2020 Presidential Election board please!

Anyways, I dug into the results of King County as well, looks like Kim Wyman took 28% of the vote in Seattle. That's an impressive number if you ask me.

[RI]

Wyman considering leaving the Republican Party.

[Xing]

Wyman considering leaving the Republican Party.

I doubt that she actually goes through with this, but if she does, there would pretty much go any hope of the GOP winning the gubernatorial race in 2024, or probably any statewide race, for that matter.

[Seattle]

Maybe she'll run as an Independent?

I know there's a push for a top 4 primary with ranked choice voting. I'd be in favor of that just on the basis of assured wacky results we'd get here and there. But it would be nice to get away from the stranglehold 2 party system.

[CultureKing]

Maybe she'll run as an Independent?

I know there's a push for a top 4 primary with ranked choice voting. I'd be in favor of that just on the basis of assured wacky results we'd get here and there. But it would be nice to get away from the stranglehold 2 party system.

Is there a referendum or movement in Olympia?

I'd totally be down for this..

[Crumpets]

Random fact I just learned: Apparently my dad went to high school with Marilyn Strickland. He wasn't in the same year as her and they didn't know each other personally, but he did show me a picture from his yearbook of her as a cheerleader.

[RI]

The State Supreme Court has thrown out the state's strict liability drug possession statute.

[Meeker]

I've added results for all the statewide executive contests in the 2020 general election, as well as for Referendum 90, the Lt. Governor top-two primary, and the Lt. Governor primary as if it were two seperate partisan contests: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=53&f=0&off=99

I did make one boo-boo and accidentally entered 2018's Initiative 940 as a 2020 contest, and I don't have permissions to go back and change the year. I've emailed Dave about it. The results for the contest are accurate in all other respects.

[Crumpets]

Harrell IN:

https://twitter.com/ericacbarnett/status/1371888155415089152

[GeneralMacArthur]

Praise the Lord, we finally have an adult in the race.

I admired Bruce Harrell when he was on the council, not for any particular political stance (although he was always one of the serious people) but because as council president he showed absolutely astounding patience dealing with the endless parade of bulls--t brought before the council every day.  Most of it at Sawant's behest.

The open mic periods they have, where they have to sit for hours and listen to people's comments, are basically activist poetry slams.  It's incredibly obnoxious and to me the worst part of it is always how proud they are of themselves like they think they're awesome for getting up in front of a mic and reading some pre-written hyperbole with bad "angry/outraged" acting.

And of course he had to deal with Sawant herself on a daily basis, constantly delivering these obnoxiously long and off-topic speeches with dramatic over-acting and bringing in her SocAlt crew to cheer her on and chant over Bruce and the other council members.  It was a nightmare.

Watching Bruce endure all of this was really a lesson in stoicism.  He was like the parent of a child with severe behavioral disorders who can just achieve a sort of zen state to get through the daily tantrums and screaming and abuse.

I wasn't surprised at all when he retired.  He's some sort of martyr for wanting to come back and suffer through it all again.  But he can see as well as anyone that Seattle has gone WAY downhill since the 2019 elections (coincidentally one of my first threads on Atlas) and that he's probably one of the 2 or 3 people in Seattle who can stop Lorena Gonzalez from basically turning the mayor's office into a rubber-stamp for the Sawant/Morales/Oliver agenda.

[Left Wing]

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/jessyn-farrell-former-state-representative-announces-bid-to-become-seattles-next-mayor/

Jessyn Farrell in

[ChelseaT]

As someone who's recently moved to WA, I have to ask. What is wrong with the WA GOP that they're so irrelevant? Do they just have no somewhat competent candidates? Or is it more a branding issue? Gotta be some reason that they haven't won in literally decades.

[Left Wing]

As someone who's recently moved to WA, I have to ask. What is wrong with the WA GOP that they're so irrelevant? Do they just have no somewhat competent candidates? Or is it more a branding issue? Gotta be some reason that they haven't won in literally decades.

I mean part of it is just that Washington state is a fundamentally Democratic state and demographics are only getting more and more favorable for the Dems here. One of the problems for the WA GOP seems to be trying to thread the needle of moderate and trumpist Republicans. They tried nice friendly moderates(although it’s debatable how accurate this is) with Dino Rossi, Rob McKenna and Bill Bryant and while they all were able to keep the loss in single digits, there just weren’t quite enough persuadable Washington Democrats. Now this year, they tried a much more fringe Trumpist Republican candidate in Loren Culp. He openly embraced conspiracy theories throughout the campaign and ruthlessly attacked Inslee. As we can see from the swing map this played well in NE and SW rural Washington, but King county and sorrounding areas swung sharply D, handing Inslee a double digit win  statewide:


So basically, the WA GOP can’t really figure out to get a wide base of support in the state and it’s only going to get more difficult unless Seattle stops growing and becomes more economically depressed.

[RI]

As someone who's recently moved to WA, I have to ask. What is wrong with the WA GOP that they're so irrelevant? Do they just have no somewhat competent candidates? Or is it more a branding issue? Gotta be some reason that they haven't won in literally decades.

I mean part of it is just that Washington state is a fundamentally Democratic state and demographics are only getting more and more favorable for the Dems here. One of the problems for the WA GOP seems to be trying to thread the needle of moderate and trumpist Republicans. They tried nice friendly moderates(although it’s debatable how accurate this is) with Dino Rossi, Rob McKenna and Bill Bryant and while they all were able to keep the loss in single digits, there just weren’t quite enough persuadable Washington Democrats. Now this year, they tried a much more fringe Trumpist Republican candidate in Loren Culp. He openly embraced conspiracy theories throughout the campaign and ruthlessly attacked Inslee. As we can see from the swing map this played well in NE and SW rural Washington, but King county and sorrounding areas swung sharply D, handing Inslee a double digit win  statewide:


So basically, the WA GOP can’t really figure out to get a wide base of support in the state and it’s only going to get more difficult unless Seattle stops growing and becomes more economically depressed.

WA is also structurally difficult for the Republicans to win as all the major statewide offices are elected during Presidential years and universal VBM means you very rarely see large fluctuations in turnout.

I have some hypotheses about how Republicans might be able to put together a winning coalition, but doing so requires some major re-thinking of the electoral playing field which I don't think the state party is willing to consider at this time.

[Seattle]

I have some hypotheses about how Republicans might be able to put together a winning coalition, but doing so requires some major re-thinking of the electoral playing field which I don't think the state party is willing to consider at this time.

Do tell!

One place Rs have been more successful (overperforming) has been in the state legislature. It's likely to do with the current map (so structural), but they've done well in marginal districts like LD-10 (Island County), LD-42 (non-Bellingham Whatcom), LD-17 (East Vancouver), LD-26 (Key Peninsula + S. Kitsap), LD-25 (Puyallup & South Hill), LD-6 (N. Spokane). In addition to keeping suburban fast swinging D seats like LD-28 (Lakewood), LD-47 (Kent), LD-5 (Sammamish/Snoqualmie) in play until 2016/2018.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

So basically, the WA GOP can’t really figure out to get a wide base of support in the state and it’s only going to get more difficult unless Seattle stops growing and becomes more economically depressed.

Not to mention Californians moving out there on a daily basis (Myself hopefully included soon)

[beesley]

So basically, the WA GOP can’t really figure out to get a wide base of support in the state and it’s only going to get more difficult unless Seattle stops growing and becomes more economically depressed.

Not to mention Californians like me moving out there on a daily basis (Myself hopefully included soon)

Do Californians tend to move to Seattle, the surrounding cities, or the rural areas?

[Kamala's side hoe]

So basically, the WA GOP can’t really figure out to get a wide base of support in the state and it’s only going to get more difficult unless Seattle stops growing and becomes more economically depressed.

Not to mention Californians like me moving out there on a daily basis (Myself hopefully included soon)

Do Californians tend to move to Seattle, the surrounding cities, or the rural areas?

Probably mostly Seattle proper + the surrounding suburbs, and not the other major cities in WA state or rural areas. One of my high school friends moved to the Bay Area after college, and then moved to Seattle a few months ago.

[Ogre Mage]

As someone who's recently moved to WA, I have to ask. What is wrong with the WA GOP that they're so irrelevant? Do they just have no somewhat competent candidates? Or is it more a branding issue? Gotta be some reason that they haven't won in literally decades.

Back in the 1980s and 1990s when Washington State was a swing state, the WA GOP M.O. was to run by demonizing King County in general and Seattle specifically.  This sometimes worked until growth in the Greater Seattle region rendered the strategy unworkable.  The sign the tipping point had been reached was when three-term incumbent U.S. Senator Slade Gorton was defeated by Maria Cantwell in 2000 in an ultra-close race.  Cantwell only won five counties in that race but racked up huge margins in King County.

As the 2000s wore on, the WA GOP continued the same losing strategy even as Seattle and King County got more populous.  The result is irrelevance in statewide races.  The WA GOP remains competitive at the district level.

[AZDem]

As someone who's recently moved to WA, I have to ask. What is wrong with the WA GOP that they're so irrelevant? Do they just have no somewhat competent candidates? Or is it more a branding issue? Gotta be some reason that they haven't won in literally decades.

Back in the 1980s and 1990s when Washington State was a swing state, the WA GOP M.O. was to run by demonizing King County in general and Seattle specifically.  This sometimes worked until growth in the Greater Seattle region rendered the strategy unworkable.  The sign the tipping point had been reached was when three-term incumbent U.S. Senator Slade Gorton was defeated by Maria Cantwell in 2000 in an ultra-close race.  Cantwell only won five counties in that race but racked up huge margins in King County.

As the 2000s wore on, the WA GOP continued the same losing strategy even as Seattle and King County got more populous.  The result is irrelevance in statewide races.  The WA GOP remains competitive at the district level.

I was living in Seattle at the time and remember that race well! I believe it took around 2 weeks and 1 or 2 recounts before the race was finally decided.

It was kind of shocking at the time given that WA lurched pretty far rightward in the '94 midterms and there were some pretty right-wing crazies running for statewide offices then: Linda Smith against Patty Murray in '98 and Ellen Craswell against Gary Locke for governor in '96. Is Pam Roach still haunting the state capitol these days?

[ottermax]

Washington Democrats are very loyal in a way that does make it structurally difficult for Republicans to breakthrough. This is true in Oregon and California as well (and increasingly in Nevada, Colorado ... maybe Arizona?)

I believe it is due to relatively high and consistent voter turnout, especially because Democrats rely on a voter based of college educated voters who turnout consistently. I think the only way to get Republican opportunities would be to completely shift the brand of the party a la Vermont's Phil Scott.

However I don't know if the WA GOP would ever be comfortable becoming an anti-Trumpist, moderate party. There is a large number of voters in Washington who dislike taxes and are pretty moderate (the left is very loud, but still a minority) so an environmentally savvy, low-tax, professional Republican could eventually take the helm... but only if the entire legislative GOP becomes less susceptible to big scary news stories and conspiracies like Culp.

[Ogre Mage]

As someone who's recently moved to WA, I have to ask. What is wrong with the WA GOP that they're so irrelevant? Do they just have no somewhat competent candidates? Or is it more a branding issue? Gotta be some reason that they haven't won in literally decades.

Back in the 1980s and 1990s when Washington State was a swing state, the WA GOP M.O. was to run by demonizing King County in general and Seattle specifically.  This sometimes worked until growth in the Greater Seattle region rendered the strategy unworkable.  The sign the tipping point had been reached was when three-term incumbent U.S. Senator Slade Gorton was defeated by Maria Cantwell in 2000 in an ultra-close race.  Cantwell only won five counties in that race but racked up huge margins in King County.

As the 2000s wore on, the WA GOP continued the same losing strategy even as Seattle and King County got more populous.  The result is irrelevance in statewide races.  The WA GOP remains competitive at the district level.

I was living in Seattle at the time and remember that race well! I believe it took around 2 weeks and 1 or 2 recounts before the race was finally decided.

It was kind of shocking at the time given that WA lurched pretty far rightward in the '94 midterms and there were some pretty right-wing crazies running for statewide offices then: Linda Smith against Patty Murray in '98 and Ellen Craswell against Gary Locke for governor in '96. Is Pam Roach still haunting the state capitol these days?

Pistol packing Pam "Who moved my roses??!!!" Roach thankfully left the State Legislature in 2016 when she won a seat on the Pierce County Council.  She retired in 2020.