Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[RI]

Asking our Washington posters: do we have any updates on how things look in WA-08, because that was very close in the primary, which is often predictive of generals in Washington?

My anecdotal evidence is that Kim Schrier ads are on TV constantly and I’ve only ever seen her opponent’s ad once.

I get Schrier ads all the time, and I'm not even in her district.

[Seattle]

Random question: How come jungle primary results in Washington tend to be good predictors of the general while those in California often aren't?

Washington is much more white, which means turnout closer is usally more equal between ED and primary day. Infact I think WA Primary can sometimes favor Democrats compared to GE day because college whites are the highest turnout group and in WA they overwhelmingly vote D.

I don't think the primary is as good of a predictor as you think it is Roll Roons.
In 18, the primary was slightly more favorable for the Ds than the general ended up being. While it's pretty clear the opposite is true for this year and we'll find out soon enough. I believe 2016 was pretty spot on though. I have no clue about 12/14.

One thing for sure is that late returning ballots do not follow as strict of a D-heavy trend that is seen in CA/AZ. It's much more variable.

[Xing]

I was in Tacoma the other day, and it's pretty shocking just how much more enthusiasm there is this year. I lived there from 2014-2016 (I moved back to Seattle just before the election), and I hardly saw any yard signs there. I predicted that the area would swing somewhat to Trump. This year, however, there are yard signs all over the place, almost all of them for Biden and Democrats. The difference is absolutely insane, and while it might not translate to a huge swing, as someone who lived there, it's hard not to see this as somewhat indicative of a change. There were a few Wyman signs, but significantly more Tarleton signs. Wyman doesn't need to win Tacoma proper to win statewide, but she probably can't afford to lose Pierce, and winning Pierce means at least keeping it somewhat close in Tacoma.

[Seattle]

That's encouraging to hear. Particularly the Tarleton signs.

Here's my E-day prediction:

Turnout: I really want it to get to 4m, but I think we fall short. Probably something like 3.9 or 3.95.

Pres: 59-37 (I really don't think Trump is going to get a higher percentage than he did in 16)
Gov: Inslee 58-42
LG: Heck 50-35-15 (Freed write-ins). This is a tough race to predict and will take awhile to count due to write-ins
AG: Ferguson 59-41
SOS: Tarleton 51-49 Maybe ticket splitting isn't dead, but I don't think it's enough to save Wyman. But wouldn't be surprised if she wins wither.
Auditor: McCarthy 62-38
Insurance: Kreidler 66-34
Treasurer: Pellicciotti 56-44
Lands: Franz 60-40
PI: Reykdal 55-45

WA-1: 61-39 DelBene
WA-2: 66-34 Larsen
WA-3: 52-48 JHB
WA-4: 62-38 Newhouse
WA-5: 57-43 CMR
WA-6: 64-36 Kilmer
WA-7: 86-14 Jayapal
WA-8: 55-45 Schrier
WA-9: 76-24 Smith
WA-10: 60-40 Strickland

Leg: D+1 in senate, D+1 in house
R sweep LD-19, taking the senate seat and remaining house (bye-bye Takko and Blake), but Ds gain in LDs 28 (senate, bye O’Bann), 10 (senate and one house), and 42 (one house).
There are some R-held suburban/exurban seats that could surprise if the suburban shift is big enough: LD-26 (Kitsap + Gig Harbor), LD-25 (Puyallup), LD-17 (suburban Clark county), and LD-6 (Spokane periphery and Cheney). I fully expect Biden to win all three of those districts.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/MountRainierWA/status/1323693768290103297

[Seattle]

If you thought Rs crated in King in 2016/18....

Biden is leading with 1.03 counted out of a likely 1.25-3 by 77-20

He's currently leading in Pacific as well, will be interesting to see if that holds.

[RI]

Trends are definitely real in WA. Looks like Wyman likely holds on, at least.

[Seattle]

Initial results are barring out very close to my predictions. Looks like LD-17 pos 2 might be the surprise - or trade with LD 10 pos 1.

Biden doing extremely well on the east side of the cascades. Currently ahead in Walla Walla county!?

[RI]

Biden doing extremely well on the east side of the cascades. Currently ahead in Walla Walla county!?

I've heard the SDAs of College Place are very anti-Trump despite being typically conservative.

[cwt]

https://www.khq.com/elections/loren-culp-announces-the-city-of-republic-has-defunded-the-police-department/article_4d303c88-1edf-11eb-b0d1-1b8597464345.html

So Culp not only lost the election, he lost his job. The City Council of Republic voted to defund their police department.

[Roll Roons]

Wyman is up by 5 statewide and getting over 40% in King County. Thurston County was Biden +23 and Wyman +18. Pretty amazing performance on her part. Polarization isn't absolute after all.

[Calthrina950]

Wyman is up by 5 statewide and getting over 40% in King County. Thurston County was Biden +23 and Wyman +18. Pretty amazing performance on her part. Polarization isn't absolute after all.

With these numbers, she should be on track to win reelection, correct? Elsewhere, other moderate Republican officeholders such as Collins and Fitzpatrick have also won reelection, in spite of Biden wins in their districts/states.

[Roll Roons]

Wyman is up by 5 statewide and getting over 40% in King County. Thurston County was Biden +23 and Wyman +18. Pretty amazing performance on her part. Polarization isn't absolute after all.

With these numbers, she should be on track to win reelection, correct? Elsewhere, other moderate Republican officeholders such as Collins and Fitzpatrick have also won reelection, in spite of Biden wins in their districts/states.

Yeah, she's got it in the bag.

[ottermax]

Looks like a record number of African-American legislators will be joining after these elections. Tanisha Harris in LD 17 looks impressive, anyone knows what is going on there?

[RI]

Culp lost his job. Talk about insult to injury.

[Calthrina950]

At 93% reporting according to the NYT, Biden has 60.2% in Washington, which makes him the first Democrat to hit that benchmark there since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. That is an impressive performance, indicating that he consolidated virtually all of the third-party vote from last time.

[Seattle]

At 93% reporting according to the NYT, Biden has 60.2% in Washington, which makes him the first Democrat to hit that benchmark there since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. That is an impressive performance, indicating that he consolidated virtually all of the third-party vote from last time.

I am unsure that's likely to hold. I think it'll end up settling around 59.5%. Still the best since LBJ.

[Left Wing]

Culp is now refusing to concede the results. He says it "smells fishy." His only evidence is that he thinks referendum 90 shouldn't have passed. He has started a new video blog called "Lunch with Loren." It seems like he is just taking cues from how Trump is handling this.

[RI]

Yes, Culp, the Republican SoS-run election in which you were blown out of the water "smells fishy" to you. What a joke of a candidate. I am still stunned the WA GOP chose him in the primary. The party needs some serious help.

[Xing]

Of course Culp isn't conceding, lol. As I expected, Wyman held on, and Davidson got ousted. If Republicans were smart, they'd push Wyman to run for Governor in 2024 if Inslee retires, but given the fact that Culp won the primary, I'm not sure they're headed down that path.

[GeneralMacArthur]

WA GOP is a big fat mess.  It's mostly been taken over by Breitbart-style grievance warriors who just want to hate on Seattle and own the libs all day.  All I see from WA GOP people on social media is snark and lib hate.

[Damocles]

WA GOP is a big fat mess.  It's mostly been taken over by Breitbart-style grievance warriors who just want to hate on Seattle and own the libs all day.  All I see from WA GOP people on social media is snark and lib hate.

When your biggest argument against a sitting governor is “maggot apples”, you don’t live in Washington. You live in clown world.

[Ogre Mage]

In Washington State, the debate these days is mainly between the progressive and centrist wings of the Democratic Party (I would consider myself a swing vote between the two wings).  The WA GOP is a hateful, incompetent $hit show which has no grasp of reality and therefore is not taken seriously.

[cwt]

So if Inslee takes off for a role in the Biden administration how does the special election for Governor work?

Is there a primary or is there just one big free-for-all ballot?

[Left Wing]

So if Inslee takes off for a role in the Biden administration how does the special election for Governor work?

Is there a primary or is there just one big free-for-all ballot?

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think there is a special election. I think Denny Heck would just become governor serve out the rest of Inslee's term.