Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Seattle]

There's absolutely no way this will end well, and I see pretty much nobody on either side of the Democrat-leftist divide really caring about it except for the very local politicians with no power to actually enact anything.

It's all part of this grand scheme to try to get people to commute by bike, I'm sure. Of course, nobody realizes that Magnolia is surrounded by incredibly steep hills on every side and nobody is going to want their commute home to end with a strenuous workout.

FWIW, I live in Capitol Hill and I care about you guys.  I love walking around Magnolia and looking at all the beautiful houses and old trees and big flowery gardens.  Are y'all still dealing with a rat infestation or did you get that worked out?

As far as I know, it's been fixed. We never really had that many rats in our area and I was kind of surprised to see those headlines at the time. The main pest on my block has always been ants. Also, I had no idea you lived in core Sawantist territory. Kind of explains some of your political views, I suppose.

My political views have been consistent for years.  I have a special vitriol for Sawant because she and her acolytes directly affect my life in so many ways.  Local politics is always much more impactful.  Trump isn't setting up junkie encampments in Miller Park.

The idea that political movements I identify with and the votes they cast make your day-to-day life worse and have made you the red-in-the-face angry NIMBY WASP you are today, fills me with so much glee.

Sawant is a nimby

Sawant is many things, but that is not one of them.

[Crumpets]

So... Larsen's leftist primary opponent has not conceded and has been catching up on Republican Hazelo in WA-2. He's currently behind around 1,800 votes. No idea if there's enough ballots left to make that up - there are still 14,000 ballots out in Skagit, but I haven't seen a breakdown by CD - but it'd be nice to get another D vs. D election in November.

[Seattle]

So... Larsen's leftist primary opponent has not conceded and has been catching up on Republican Hazelo in WA-2. He's currently behind around 1,800 votes. No idea if there's enough ballots left to make that up - there are still 14,000 ballots out in Skagit, but I haven't seen a breakdown by CD - but it'd be nice to get another D vs. D election in November.

I don't think it's possible, too bad.

Without conversation devolving back to the argument over CHOP's impact on the electorate, I'm really still surprised by the relative poor performance across the ballot of Ds. The 2018 primary results were pretty indicative of the GE (if anything there was a bit of a drop for Ds). I'm not sure how this year's 53% turnout compares, but that seems pretty solid for a primary.

Thoughts?

[Crumpets]

So... Larsen's leftist primary opponent has not conceded and has been catching up on Republican Hazelo in WA-2. He's currently behind around 1,800 votes. No idea if there's enough ballots left to make that up - there are still 14,000 ballots out in Skagit, but I haven't seen a breakdown by CD - but it'd be nice to get another D vs. D election in November.

I don't think it's possible, too bad.

Without conversation devolving back to the argument over CHOP's impact on the electorate, I'm really still surprised by the relative poor performance across the ballot of Ds. The 2018 primary results were pretty indicative of the GE (if anything there was a bit of a drop for Ds). I'm not sure how this year's 53% turnout compares, but that seems pretty solid for a primary.

Thoughts?

Best explanation I have is that it's a combination of 2018 having lots of competitive Dem primaries and 2020 having a lot of competitive Republican primaries plus just still having a lot of non-voters. We can expect probably around a million additional votes to be cast in November, and I have to imagine that, this being Washington, those will probably break at least somewhat disproportionately Dem.

[Seattle]

I think I discovered the culprit. At 53%, this year’s primary turnout is far and away the highest ever. It looks like everyone participated at a higher rate, with Rs benefiting.
It was 41% in 2018 and 35% in 2016. If you take 2016’s GE turnout of 78.8% and apply it to the current number of registered voters, you get 3.6 million votes. So we can expect roughly another 1.2 million votes to manifest in the 2020 GE.

[Logical]

Dems look toast in LD19. In LD29 Sharlett Mena is only 153 votes away from Steve Kirby, she was down 5% on election night. Only ~750 ballots left in Pierce though so lt looks unlikely that she'll catch up.

[MAPZZ]

I think I discovered the culprit. At 53%, this year’s primary turnout is far and away the highest ever. It looks like everyone participated at a higher rate, with Rs benefiting.
It was 41% in 2018 and 35% in 2016. If you take 2016’s GE turnout of 78.8% and apply it to the current number of registered voters, you get 3.6 million votes. So we can expect roughly another 1.2 million votes to manifest in the 2020 GE.

It seems that would especially hurt in places like southwest WA where lots of Republican voters are young, uneducated, and not particularly likely to show up for midterms whereas a lot of Democrats there are old retired union-types that are dying out but still vote consistently in midterms.

[Seattle]

I think I discovered the culprit. At 53%, this year’s primary turnout is far and away the highest ever. It looks like everyone participated at a higher rate, with Rs benefiting.
It was 41% in 2018 and 35% in 2016. If you take 2016’s GE turnout of 78.8% and apply it to the current number of registered voters, you get 3.6 million votes. So we can expect roughly another 1.2 million votes to manifest in the 2020 GE.

It seems that would especially hurt in places like southwest WA where lots of Republican voters are young, uneducated, and not particularly likely to show up for midterms whereas a lot of Democrats there are old retired union-types that are dying out but still vote consistently in midterms.

There are young people in SW WA!?
I think we'll see a pretty noticable D shift from primary to GE this year, unlike in past years. Unless WA is suddenly swinging away from Ds (that seems pretty unlikely to me, given just about every demographic and population trend in the state).

[Seattle]

I guess Joshua Freed (R), who got third (lol at 9%) in the Gov race is going to try and run a write-in campaign for LG. From what I've read, apparently Rs aren't too thrilled that he's the one doing it.

WA does have very liberal write-in laws, so write-ins for 'Josh', 'Joshua', or 'Freed' would be counted for him.

Even with that, he has a 0% change of succeeding. Honestly, the most intriguing part of this endeavor is why the Ds didn't attempt this in 2016 for the Treasurer race. To avoid the inevitable extra embarrassment?

[RI]

A quick comparison of Inslee's percent in the 2020 primary vs in the 2016 general by city in King County:

City	2020	2016	Change
Overall	68.5%	67.7%	D +0.8
Auburn	45.3%	52.7%	R +7.4
Bellevue	64.9%	61.7%	D +3.2
Bothell	61.0%	59.3%	D +1.7
Burien	64.5%	66.0%	R +1.5
Clyde Hill	54.2%	45.4%	D +8.8
Covington	44.8%	47.8%	R +3.0
Des Moines	56.7%	59.7%	R +3.0
Enumclaw	33.2%	42.5%	R +9.3
Federal Way	52.6%	58.3%	R +5.7
Issaquah	66.5%	59.6%	D +6.9
Kenmore	66.6%	64.0%	D +2.6
Kent	53.5%	59.2%	R +5.7
Kirkland	64.9%	61.6%	D +3.3
Lake Forest Park	74.5%	72.1%	D +2.4
Medina	56.3%	46.9%	D +9.4
Mercer Island	70.2%	62.5%	D +7.7
Maple Valley	45.4%	45.3%	D +0.1
Newcastle	62.0%	56.4%	D +5.6
Normandy Park	60.4%	56.0%	D +4.4
North Bend	54.7%	52.2%	D +2.5
Redmond	68.5%	65.5%	D +3.0
Renton	59.6%	63.1%	R +3.5
Sammamish	64.1%	56.9%	D +7.2
Seatac	57.7%	65.8%	R +8.1
Snoqualmie	58.2%	51.5%	D +6.7
Shoreline	72.6%	71.6%	D +1.0
Tukwila	64.3%	72.3%	R +8.0
Woodinville	61.2%	57.6%	D +3.6
Yarrow Point	59.6%	49.6%	D +10.0
Seattle (All)	83.9%	82.5%	D +1.4
Seattle, 11th LD	81.9%	84.2%	R +2.3
Seattle, 32nd LD	79.3%	78.3%	D +1.0
Seattle, 34th LD	79.8%	77.9%	D +1.9
Seattle, 36th LD	83.8%	80.3%	D +3.5
Seattle, 37th LD	84.6%	87.8%	R +3.2
Seattle, 43rd LD	87.3%	85.9%	D +1.4
Seattle, 46th LD	82.8%	80.6%	D +2.2

Seems to be a huge income shift going on.

[ottermax]

This comparison is interesting, but wouldn't a primary to primary comparison be better as it looks like minority turnout is driving the numbers in much of South King County, which is just generally lower in primaries.

[RI]

This comparison is interesting, but wouldn't a primary to primary comparison be better as it looks like minority turnout is driving the numbers in much of South King County, which is just generally lower in primaries.

I was generally operating under a premise that the 2016 General was a mini-realignment, and so previous contests to that might not be as representative (plus there were slightly more Dems on the ballot in 2016), but I can put that together real fast.

Here is the comparison to the Inslee's 2016 primary. The results are similar (corr = 0.82), but somewhat less extreme, especially when looking at the trend rather than swing, which might help account for the difference in number of other Dem candidates.

City	2020	2016	Swing	Trend
Overall	68.5	64.1	D +4.4	D +0.0
Auburn	45.3	44.5	D +0.8	R +3.6
Bellevue	64.9	56.7	D +8.2	D +3.8
Bothell	61.0	55.4	D +5.6	D +1.2
Burien	64.5	58.8	D +5.7	D +1.3
Clyde Hill	54.2	44.8	D +9.4	D +5.0
Covington	44.8	40.1	D +4.7	D +0.3
Des Moines	56.7	53.6	D +3.1	R +1.3
Enumclaw	33.2	38.2	R +5.0	R +9.4
Federal Way	52.6	49.9	D +2.7	R +1.7
Issaquah	66.5	55.7	D +10.8	D +6.4
Kenmore	66.6	60.1	D +6.5	D +2.1
Kent	53.5	49.0	D +4.5	D +0.1
Kirkland	64.9	58.6	D +6.3	D +1.9
Lake Forest Park	74.5	71.6	D +2.9	R +1.5
Medina	56.3	47.4	D +8.9	D +4.5
Mercer Island	70.2	61.6	D +8.6	D +4.2
Maple Valley	45.4	38.8	D +6.6	D +2.2
Newcastle	62.0	54.0	D +8.0	D +3.6
Normandy Park	60.4	52.2	D +8.2	D +3.8
North Bend	54.7	47.2	D +7.5	D +3.1
Redmond	68.5	60.3	D +8.2	D +3.8
Renton	59.6	55.1	D +4.5	D +0.1
Sammamish	64.1	53.6	D +10.5	D +6.1
Seatac	57.7	51.7	D +6.0	D +1.6
Snoqualmie	58.2	48.5	D +9.7	D +5.3
Shoreline	72.6	67.8	D +4.8	D +0.4
Tukwila	64.3	61.1	D +3.2	R +1.2
Woodinville	61.2	56.5	D +4.7	D +0.3
Yarrow Point	59.6	46.2	D +13.4	D +9.0
Seattle (All)	83.9	79.4	D +4.5	D +0.1
Seattle,  11th LD	81.9	77.7	D +4.2	R +0.2
Seattle,  32nd LD	79.3	74.4	D +4.9	D +0.5
Seattle,  34th LD	79.8	74.0	D +5.8	D +1.4
Seattle,  36th LD	83.8	78.1	D +5.7	D +1.3
Seattle,  37th LD	84.6	83.1	D +1.5	R +2.9
Seattle,  43rd LD	87.3	83.5	D +3.8	R +0.6
Seattle,  46th LD	82.8	78.1	D +4.7	D +0.3

[ottermax]

Thank you these results feel a little less extreme especially in minority heavy areas.

It does make me wonder... are minority voters just not voting as much, or actually swinging Republican? Or are white voters in these areas increasing turnout? Or have voters across racial lines swung Republican in these South King County areas?

[Seattle]

In my recent summer travels across Western Washington, I've been shocked by the sheer number of Culp yard signs... based on the highly scientific yard sign index, Culp is looking at scoring an impressive victory over Inslee!

But honestly, I have seen more Culp signs than Trump or Biden signs combined! Only in Snohomish County does someone else seem to match his numbers... Cassandra Lopez-Shaw running for (I had to look this up) Superior Court Judge.

[GeneralMacArthur]

The initiative to Recall Sawant is allowed to move forward.

4 of the 6 charges were allowed to stand.  The two related to her encouraging illegal activity through her rhetoric around CHAZ were removed, but those were the two weakest charges anyway.

The four charges are:

• Sawant relinquished her independence by allowing Socialist Alternative to make hiring/firing decisions in her office
• Sawant abused her position by using public resources for her personal political campaigns
• Sawant violated the governor's COVID statute and abused her office to unlock city hall and encourage protesters to occupy it
• Sawant committed a felony by revealing Mayor Durkan's home address, which was protected due to death threats she had received, and encouraging protesters to march to Durkan's home.

Some choice quotes from the judge's decision:

This document supplies facts that the Councilmember had to persuade the [Seattle Executive Committee of the Socialist Alternative party] to concur with her decision to fire an employee, not simply ask advice.  This is delegation of a decision to an outside body, even if the Councilmember is also a member of the outside body.  These facts show actual knowledge of facts indicating that the Councilmember intended to commit an unlawful act, a breach of ethics.

Also delicious: the documents also show that Sawant delegates her council votes to SocAlt.  The Sawant lawyers insist that she doesn't do this.  This is delicious because when I've confronted SocAlt members in real life on this issue, their talking point is, "yes she does delegate her votes to SocAlt, but that's just normal politics, it's no different from Democrats who delegate their votes to Nancy Pelosi."

The allegations are factually sufficient, and establish a prima facie case of misfeasance, malfeasance, and violation of the oath of office under the cited Seattle Municipal Code of Ethics.

These are actual resources being spent to promote an initiative, which is prohibited by law, and not a de minimis use incidental to the delivery of message.  These facts are from Councilmember's own words and from the City's documents.  These facts show actual knowledge of facts indicating that the Councilmember intended to commit an unlawful act and form a basis of knowledge of the allegations.

The Councilmember argues that under the law, a misuse of City resources can only occur after a ballot initiative is filed.  This Court disagrees for two reasons:  That is not what the statute says, and the Seattle Municipal Code even more broadly prohibits the conduct here.

City Hall was locked to the public precisely BECAUSE of the pandemic, and because of the public health Proclamations of the Governor.  Thus, her alleged act of unlocking the building closed due to the pandemic and letting in the protestors inferentially proves the intent needed to allow the charge/allegation to go forward.

The address confidentiality program is found in RCW 40,24,030 and those who criminally violate it are guilty of the class C felont of harassment.  These facts show actual knowledge of facts indicating that the COuncilmember intended to commit an unlawful act.

*chef's kiss*

it's worth noting that these allegations are far from the worst things Sawant has ever done.  They are simply the most illegal things she's done.  Like Trump, Sawant does hundreds of horrible things every year, and only sometimes stumbles into the realm of illegality because she's so used to suffering no consequences for her behavior.  It would be nice if she would suffer consequences for the other hundreds of horrible things she says and does, but unfortunately last year she was able to get away with all of them by just screaming "MY OPPONENT IS LITERALLY JEFF BEZOS" over and over and over.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/washington-gov-jay-inslee-gives-maggot-infested-apples-to-wildfire-victims-regrets-mistake

Washington state is known for its apples -- but Gov. Jay Inslee didn't appear to do the popular fruit any public relations favors last week.


The Democrat, in an effort to bring comfort to communities in Eastern Washington devastated by recent wildfires, unknowingly and illegally gifted baskets of apples from his orchard in Olympia that were later found to be infested with apple maggot larvae, according to reports.

Thurston County, where Inslee lives, is an apple maggot quarantine area --meaning it was illegal for Inslee to bring homegrown apples from that area to a non-quarantine area like Douglas County, according to Q13 FOX in Seattle.

.....

A basket of apples the governor gave to a retirement home in Omak, Wash., later tested positive for apple maggot larvae so officials were desperately trying to find the basket he left at a church in Bridgeport, Wash., but no one knows what happened to it, according to the station.

[Left Wing]

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/how-to-watch-gov-jay-inslee-and-challenger-loren-culps-first-debate-oct-7/
Inslee-Culp Debate tomorrow

[GALeftist]

The initiative to Recall Sawant is allowed to move forward.

4 of the 6 charges were allowed to stand.  The two related to her encouraging illegal activity through her rhetoric around CHAZ were removed, but those were the two weakest charges anyway.

The four charges are:

• Sawant relinquished her independence by allowing Socialist Alternative to make hiring/firing decisions in her office
• Sawant abused her position by using public resources for her personal political campaigns
• Sawant violated the governor's COVID statute and abused her office to unlock city hall and encourage protesters to occupy it
• Sawant committed a felony by revealing Mayor Durkan's home address, which was protected due to death threats she had received, and encouraging protesters to march to Durkan's home.

Some choice quotes from the judge's decision:

This document supplies facts that the Councilmember had to persuade the [Seattle Executive Committee of the Socialist Alternative party] to concur with her decision to fire an employee, not simply ask advice.  This is delegation of a decision to an outside body, even if the Councilmember is also a member of the outside body.  These facts show actual knowledge of facts indicating that the Councilmember intended to commit an unlawful act, a breach of ethics.

Also delicious: the documents also show that Sawant delegates her council votes to SocAlt.  The Sawant lawyers insist that she doesn't do this.  This is delicious because when I've confronted SocAlt members in real life on this issue, their talking point is, "yes she does delegate her votes to SocAlt, but that's just normal politics, it's no different from Democrats who delegate their votes to Nancy Pelosi."

The allegations are factually sufficient, and establish a prima facie case of misfeasance, malfeasance, and violation of the oath of office under the cited Seattle Municipal Code of Ethics.

These are actual resources being spent to promote an initiative, which is prohibited by law, and not a de minimis use incidental to the delivery of message.  These facts are from Councilmember's own words and from the City's documents.  These facts show actual knowledge of facts indicating that the Councilmember intended to commit an unlawful act and form a basis of knowledge of the allegations.

The Councilmember argues that under the law, a misuse of City resources can only occur after a ballot initiative is filed.  This Court disagrees for two reasons:  That is not what the statute says, and the Seattle Municipal Code even more broadly prohibits the conduct here.

City Hall was locked to the public precisely BECAUSE of the pandemic, and because of the public health Proclamations of the Governor.  Thus, her alleged act of unlocking the building closed due to the pandemic and letting in the protestors inferentially proves the intent needed to allow the charge/allegation to go forward.

The address confidentiality program is found in RCW 40,24,030 and those who criminally violate it are guilty of the class C felont of harassment.  These facts show actual knowledge of facts indicating that the COuncilmember intended to commit an unlawful act.

*chef's kiss*

it's worth noting that these allegations are far from the worst things Sawant has ever done.  They are simply the most illegal things she's done.  Like Trump, Sawant does hundreds of horrible things every year, and only sometimes stumbles into the realm of illegality because she's so used to suffering no consequences for her behavior.  It would be nice if she would suffer consequences for the other hundreds of horrible things she says and does, but unfortunately last year she was able to get away with all of them by just screaming "MY OPPONENT IS LITERALLY JEFF BEZOS" over and over and over.

Bookmarking all this for when Sawant inevitably survives

[Left Wing]

https://mobile.twitter.com/cj_mcmahon/status/1314039391568896000
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jim_Brunner/status/1314039246148128770

[Left Wing]

Inslee won the debate. He didn’t excel but Culp dug himself into a hole by denying global warming. Inslee basically just tied Culp to Trump the entire debate and that’s all he really needs to do.

[cwt]

New SurveyUSA/KING-5 poll:

Biden 55%, Trump 34%, Undecided 5%

Inslee 54%, Culp 40%, Undecided 6%

Heck 31%, Liias 18%, Undecided 52%

Wyman 45%, Tarleton 40%, Undecided 14%

Referendum 90: Approve 52%, Reject 34%, Undecided 14%

[Kamala's side hoe]

New Poll: Washington President by Survey USA on 2020-10-12

Summary: D: 55%, R: 34%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Crosstabs suggest that Inslee-Trump Latinos and Culp-Biden Asians are a thing. They also suggest that Metro Seattle gubernatorial debate watchers thought Culp the anti-masker won the debate.

[Common Sense Atlantan]

I think Kim Wyman loses. The undecideds will break hard for Tarleton.

[GeneralMacArthur]

As a reference point, I voted for Tarleton.  There are no good Republicans.  Anyone calling themselves a Republican deserve to be kicked out of office.  Burn their party to the ground and salt the Earth.  The entire party is built on an utterly depraved and corrupt apparatus and most of Wyman's support is coming from a base of Washington Republicans who are fed a non-stop firehose of misinformation and downright lies through a variety of channels that have been intentionally cultivated by Republicans to disguise their duplicitous, malicious, partisan intent.  That's what the Republican Party is and Wyman is OUT with the rest of her accursed party.

[Figueira]

As a reference point, I voted for Tarleton.  There are no good Republicans.  Anyone calling themselves a Republican deserve to be kicked out of office.  Burn their party to the ground and salt the Earth.  The entire party is built on an utterly depraved and corrupt apparatus and most of Wyman's support is coming from a base of Washington Republicans who are fed a non-stop firehose of misinformation and downright lies through a variety of channels that have been intentionally cultivated by Republicans to disguise their duplicitous, malicious, partisan intent.  That's what the Republican Party is and Wyman is OUT with the rest of her accursed party.

Yeah, that's how I feel about "good Republicans". If you're so good, why are you a Republican?