Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Xing]

Will Eyman break 40% in November? I'm thinking not.

Inslee has been fairly competent in his handling of the virus, no? I think that probably helps him come November.

While Inslee is decently well-liked here, it’s very rare for a gubernatorial race to be as lopsided as Senate/Presidential races tend to be, and so especially with our top two primary system, I doubt Eyman would get less than 40%. Less than 45%? Definitely possible, if not probable.

[Seattle]

In non-COVID-19 news, a shocker: LG Cyrus Habib (D) is not running for re-election and will join the Jesuits.
Given his political trajectory WA house 2012 > WA senate 2014 > LG 2016, this is a surprise move for someone who was not unlikely to be the next governor.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/washington-lt-gov-cyrus-habib-will-not-run-for-reelection-says-he-plans-to-join-jesuit-religious-order/

[RI]

In non-COVID-19 news, a shocker: LG Cyrus Habib (D) is not running for re-election and will join the Jesuits.
Given his political trajectory WA house 2012 > WA senate 2014 > LG 2016, this is a surprise move for someone who was not unlikely to be the next governor.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/washington-lt-gov-cyrus-habib-will-not-run-for-reelection-says-he-plans-to-join-jesuit-religious-order/

[Seattle]

The race for Governor, er, LG looks like this:

Denny Heck (WA-10, D) - He's got to be the presumed favorite. Establishment D, but a 'pragmatic progressive' - he's been in WA politics since the 70s.
Marko Liias (LD-21, D) - Lost in the 2016 primary for State Treasurer, which led to an R-R general. But he's also got the endorsement of Habib. He's a suburban liberal.
Steve Hobbs (LD-44, D) - Lost to Habib in 2016 LG primary. Suburban moderate.

No major Rs have yet filed to run, though Joseph Brumbles the R candidate in 2018 against Heck is running.

Interestingly, Heck has said that he intends to stand down if Inslee is appointed to an administration position. "I will not stand for election, period." Huh. Idk if I believe that. Maybe he's maneuvering to make it easier for Ferguson or Constantine to win in a subsequent messy field...?

[Ogre Mage]

Interestingly, Heck has said that he intends to stand down if Inslee is appointed to an administration position. "I will not stand for election, period." Huh. Idk if I believe that. Maybe he's maneuvering to make it easier for Ferguson or Constantine to win in a subsequent messy field...?

A solid theory.  Locke put the establishment support behind Gregoire and she did the same for Inslee.  He will work out support for the next governor-in-waiting -- if it hasn't been decided already.  And Heck is part and parcel of the WA Democratic Establishment.

[Seattle]

And Gregoire has already endorsed Heck.... Hmm.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

resident washington posters: Do you think Josh Collins has even the slightest possibility of making the top 2?

[Seattle]

resident washington posters: Do you think Josh Collins has even the slightest possibility of making the top 2?

Lol, lol not in the slightest between Reeves, Strickland, and the R(s).

[Ogre Mage]

resident washington posters: Do you think Josh Collins has even the slightest possibility of making the top 2?

No.  WA-10 is a moderately Democratic suburban district.  It is not a hard-core progressive district like WA-7.  He's a bad fit and has no experience.

Of the legitimate candidates, his run might be most problematic for State Rep. Beth Doglio.  She represents the Olympia area and I could see Collins siphoning votes from her among the Evergreen State College community.  This may give Kristine Reeves and/or Marilyn Strickland an advantage.

[Seattle]

resident washington posters: Do you think Josh Collins has even the slightest possibility of making the top 2?

No.  WA-10 is a moderately Democratic suburban district.  It is not a hard-core progressive district like WA-7.  He's a bad fit and has no experience.

Of the legitimate candidates, his run might be most problematic for State Rep. Beth Doglio.  She represents the Olympia area and I could see Collins siphoning votes from her among the Evergreen State College community.  This may give Kristine Reeves and/or Marilyn Strickland an advantage.

Huh. I did not even realize Doglio is running! She initially sat it out back in December and only announced last month when, COVID-19 was the only thing on people's minds. That's not a great start to a campaign. I definitely support her over Reeves (I am not a fan of Strickland). She's got the Thurston vote sewn up, which immediately puts her at an advantage. The primary map, come August, is going to be fascinating. Honestly, it would not surprise me to see this end up D-D because none of the Rs are even B-level candidates (none of the five hold any sort of elected position).

Anyway, now that I've gone down the rabbit hole of FEC reports, this is what the reported Q1 fundraising numbers show:

Kristine Reeves (D): $274,058.63 raised, $73,990.58 spent, $200,068.05 COH
Marilyn Strickland (D): $251,651.99 raised, $102,505.05 spent, $149,146.94 COH
Beth Doglio (D): $239,639.00 raised, $20,167.02 spent, $219,471.98 COH
Phil Gardner (D): $108,823.69 raised, $42,667.68 spent, $66,156.01 COH (He's Heck's District Director and is very much rooted locally - from Puyallup/University Place)
Joshua Collins (D): Not yet reporting had 59k COH at end of 2019 Q4

Nancy Slotnick (R): $27,489.00 raised, $23,161.00 spent, $4,523.12 COH - C-level candidate, "fiscal conservative and a social moderate"
Rian Ingrim (R): $625.00 raised, $31.64 spent, $593.36 COH - literal nobody
Ryan Tate (R): $615.00 raised, $69.35 spent, $545.65 COH - literal nobody
Don Hewitt (R): $200.07 raised, $476.23 spent, $1,723.84 COH - literal nobody
Dan Gordon (R): Not yet reporting - but a literal nobody

[LiberalDem19]

What do y'all think happens in the Treasurer race?

[Ogre Mage]

Huh. I did not even realize Doglio is running! She initially sat it out back in December and only announced last month when, COVID-19 was the only thing on people's minds. That's not a great start to a campaign. I definitely support her over Reeves (I am not a fan of Strickland). She's got the Thurston vote sewn up, which immediately puts her at an advantage. The primary map, come August, is going to be fascinating. Honestly, it would not surprise me to see this end up D-D because none of the Rs are even B-level candidates (none of the five hold any sort of elected position).

Anyway, now that I've gone down the rabbit hole of FEC reports, this is what the reported Q1 fundraising numbers show:

Kristine Reeves (D): $274,058.63 raised, $73,990.58 spent, $200,068.05 COH
Marilyn Strickland (D): $251,651.99 raised, $102,505.05 spent, $149,146.94 COH
Beth Doglio (D): $239,639.00 raised, $20,167.02 spent, $219,471.98 COH
Phil Gardner (D): $108,823.69 raised, $42,667.68 spent, $66,156.01 COH (He's Heck's District Director and is very much rooted locally - from Puyallup/University Place)
Joshua Collins (D): Not yet reporting had 59k COH at end of 2019 Q4

Nancy Slotnick (R): $27,489.00 raised, $23,161.00 spent, $4,523.12 COH - C-level candidate, "fiscal conservative and a social moderate"
Rian Ingrim (R): $625.00 raised, $31.64 spent, $593.36 COH - literal nobody
Ryan Tate (R): $615.00 raised, $69.35 spent, $545.65 COH - literal nobody
Don Hewitt (R): $200.07 raised, $476.23 spent, $1,723.84 COH - literal nobody
Dan Gordon (R): Not yet reporting - but a literal nobody

Thanks for providing those.  Yes, Beth Doglio has a considerable advantage in that she appears to have no real competition for the Thurston County vote.  Indeed, that may have spurred her (somewhat late) entry into the race.  Reeves and Strickland, her strongest competitors, both come from the northeastern part of the district.  Doglio has posted competitive fundraising numbers even though she got a later start than the others.

Joshua Collins was interviewed in The Cooper Point Journal, the student newspaper at Evergreen State College.  It's been two decades since I was a student there but I don't think the politics have changed much.  Being a Democrat at that school made me feel like I was in the conservative party.

http://www.cooperpointjournal.com/2019/06/05/joshua-collins/

[Ogre Mage]

Update on the 10th Congressional District race:

The three candidates for the 10th Congressional District seat who have showed the most fundraising prowess are former state Rep. Kristine Reeves of Federal Way, former Tacoma Mayor Marilyn Strickland, and state Rep. Beth Doglio of Olympia. The three also have announced major endorsements in recent weeks.

Reeves had raised the most at $274,058 and spent $73,990, leaving her campaign with a balance of $200,068 ; Strickland collected $251,651 and spent $102,505, with cash on hand of $149,146 ; Doglio raised $239,639, leaving her with a balance of $219,471. She entered the race on Feb. 29, compared to early January for Reeves and December for Strickland.

On Monday, a week after Reeves announced that her campaign had raised the most funds, she trumpeted an endorsement from the National Education Association political action committee. The PAC picked her based on a recommendation from Washington Education Association members. She also has won endorsements from Teamsters Joint Council No. 28 and the Laborers’ International Union of North America.

Doglio also made a big splash on Monday, announcing that U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Seattle, and the Congressional Progressive Caucus political action committee had endorsed her. Jayapal is a co-chair of the PAC. Doglio also has landed several labor endorsements, including the Washington Federation of State Employees and United Food and Commercial Workers 21.

Late last month, Strickland announced that former governors Christine Gregoire and Gary Locke had endorsed her, along with former U.S. Rep. Norm Dicks.

https://www.theolympian.com/news/politics-government/election/article242605546.html

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/KREMCasey/status/1261435381741809665

Good riddance!

[Ogre Mage]

Olive oil Shea is a terrorist and a f**king lunatic and should be in jail. 

[Frodo]

Tim Eyman is making it official:

I-976 sponsor Tim Eyman officially challenges Jay Inslee for Washington state governor
Longtime initiative sponsor, Tim Eyman, officially filed his candidacy for governor with the Secretary of State's office Thursday. He is running as a Republican.

[Left Wing]

Washington should adopt the Louisiana primary model. It doesn't make much sense to hold another election if one candidate gets more than half the vote. Inslee will get a majority in the primary but because of the top-two system we have to hold another election in which Eyeman will get smoked.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/KREMCasey/status/1261435381741809665

Good riddance!

Thank god.

[Left Wing]

Steve Hobbs dropped out of the race for LG. He was just endorsed by Gary Locke and Brad Owen. It is a good choice. He will only split the moderate vote between him and Denny Heck. Latest polls showed Heck in first with Brumbles and Hobbs tied for second.

[PSOL]

This won’t be the last we hear of Matt Shea.

[QAnonKelly]

https://twitter.com/KREMCasey/status/1261435381741809665

Good riddance!

He’ll probably be the GOP presidential nominee in the next decade.

[smoltchanov]

https://twitter.com/KREMCasey/status/1261435381741809665

Good riddance!

He’ll probably be the GOP presidential nominee in the next decade.

With Republican party rapidly becoming cultist Trump organization - quite possibly....

[cwt]

Chris Vance: The GOP effort for the governor's office is futile

[Seattle]

I can't wait for the August primary!
I can't imagine Eyman losing given his name recognition. Maybe Fortunato could've given him a bit of a challenge if it wasn't for COVID and BLM protests.

What's looking like a certainty is the decimation of Rs at the state level, beyond what happened in 2018. Mike Pellicciotti (D, LD-30) should easily defeat Duane Davidson, the current R-held Treasurer (elected by virtue of two Rs making it out of the primary). They're the only two that filed to run, so it should be clear from the primary the direction downballot state races will follow.

I think Gael Tarleton (D, LD-36) will beat Kim Wyman as well. The only moderately competitive state-wide race.

[Frodo]

Chris Vance: The GOP effort for the governor's office is futile

How much can Democrats expand their majorities in the legislature this year?