Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #5675 on: November 10, 2019, 08:05:27 PM »

Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.

Wonderful news! The rest of Washington may just have enough power to save Seattle from its #wokeness.

Affirmative action existed as a concept way before "wokeness"  did.

Sadly, though, most discussions about it are just as *nuanced* as discussions about "wokeness."
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lfromnj
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« Reply #5676 on: November 10, 2019, 10:27:37 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 11:12:13 PM by Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ »

Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.

Wonderful news! The rest of Washington may just have enough power to save Seattle from its #wokeness.

Affirmative action existed as a concept way before "wokeness"  did.

Sadly, though, most discussions about it are just as *nuanced* as discussions about "wokeness."

Not much need for nuance when the state is doing discrimination based on race or other factors.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #5677 on: November 11, 2019, 12:05:47 AM »

Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.

Wonderful news! The rest of Washington may just have enough power to save Seattle from its #wokeness.

Affirmative action existed as a concept way before "wokeness"  did.

Sadly, though, most discussions about it are just as *nuanced* as discussions about "wokeness."

Not much need for nuance when the state is doing discrimination based on race or other factors.


You realize that you're proving my point, right? And I have mixed feelings about affirmative action.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #5678 on: November 11, 2019, 02:34:38 AM »

Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.

Wonderful news! The rest of Washington may just have enough power to save Seattle from its #wokeness.

Affirmative action existed as a concept way before "wokeness"  did.

Sadly, though, most discussions about it are just as *nuanced* as discussions about "wokeness."

Not much need for nuance when the state is doing discrimination based on race or other factors.


You realize that you're proving my point, right? And I have mixed feelings about affirmative action.

Giving nuance to the argument if we should do race or gender based affirmative action is almost as bad as giving nuance to the argument of if vaccinations are good. Just because there are two sides doesn't mean both sides are equal.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #5679 on: November 11, 2019, 04:03:54 AM »

Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.

Wonderful news! The rest of Washington may just have enough power to save Seattle from its #wokeness.

Affirmative action existed as a concept way before "wokeness"  did.

Sadly, though, most discussions about it are just as *nuanced* as discussions about "wokeness."

Not much need for nuance when the state is doing discrimination based on race or other factors.


You realize that you're proving my point, right? And I have mixed feelings about affirmative action.

Giving nuance to the argument if we should do race or gender based affirmative action is almost as bad as giving nuance to the argument of if vaccinations are good. Just because there are two sides doesn't mean both sides are equal.

Not even close. There isn’t merely one way to implement affirmative action, and there are examples in which quotas are not used. Now, the language in the proposal was far too vague, in my opinion, but I could easily say that anyone who strongly opposes any form of affirmative action wants to stop brown people from getting jobs. If I did so, I’d rightfully be attacked for using a strawman and not making any attempt to understand where people are coming from. Not sure why it’s okay when it’s done the other way.
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« Reply #5680 on: November 11, 2019, 12:11:40 PM »

My take on these elections:

  • By far the worst result: I-976 passing. It it likely to be overturned in the WA Supreme Court, but it will seriously hamper Sound Transit and the organization's ability to build out the transit system authorized in ST-3 if not repealed. More pressing, however, is the decimation that this will bring to Seattle's Transportation Benefit District that supplies additional funds to provide significant bus service hours in the city. Currently 70% of households in Seattle are 1/4 mile from transit that comes every 15 minutes or less. That would plummet to 40-45% without the funding. The city will be able to cover funding next year, but that's not a solution that can last much longer than that.
  • Amazon Basics: They basically all failed. Technically 2/7 of their candidates won - Juarez (cross-endorsed by everyone) and Pederson (I'll get to this later). Seattle's (progressive) Silent Majority came out enforce to repudiate the unprecedented barrage of corporate campaign dollars in a local election.
  • Sawant vs. Orion: I've seen a lot of takes on Twitter and in general that I think miss the mark. I don't think she won because Socialists came out of the woodwork, but because she faced a flawed opponent. Her base is strong and will always get out to vote for her. Sawant is very much a polarizing figure that can absolutely be beat if an actual progressive ran against her (from the primary - Ami Nguyen/Logan Bowers/Zac deWolf). However, her last two opponents have been total duds. Pamela Banks (2015 candidate) was worse than Orion, who himself only got through the primary thanks to CASE spending and cozying up to Amazon. I'm not a D3 voter and am not a fan of Sawant (I admire her fight for the working class - that has produced real results like the $15 min wage - but I have a dislike for her as a politician and her ideology), but I would have voted both in 2015 and last week for her. I think that's how a lot of voters feel.
  • D4 Pedersen vs Scott: Heartbreak. My favorite candidate lost to my least favorite. While Pedersen was one of the Amazon supported candidates, this race cleaved along different lines: NIMBY vs YIMBY (or pro-growth). Scott is DSA, but he's also an ardent urbanist and YIMBY-through-a-socialist-lens. It's also why he was ultimately unsuccessful IMO. Pedersen is less of a corporate candidate than he is an anti-growth, "lesser Seattle" one. Sawant received substantial support from precincts dominated by single-family home owners (and renters) that cannot be said for Scott. As a result we trade two awesome ex/interim-councilmembers (Johnson and Pacheco) for someone who opposes transit (was against ST3 and TBD funding for enhanced bus service), bike lanes, and HALA/MHA - the policy that upzoned much of Seattle and created mandatory affordable housing in all new multi-family development.
  • Most progressive council in a long time: I think we'll see a more aggressive version of the head tax and I think it will honestly be better received than last time.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #5681 on: November 11, 2019, 11:06:41 PM »

This is the guy Sawant beat:



lulz
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RI
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« Reply #5682 on: November 11, 2019, 11:13:35 PM »

uh...
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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #5683 on: November 11, 2019, 11:16:47 PM »

My take on these elections:

  • By far the worst result: I-976 passing. It it likely to be overturned in the WA Supreme Court, but it will seriously hamper Sound Transit and the organization's ability to build out the transit system authorized in ST-3 if not repealed. More pressing, however, is the decimation that this will bring to Seattle's Transportation Benefit District that supplies additional funds to provide significant bus service hours in the city. Currently 70% of households in Seattle are 1/4 mile from transit that comes every 15 minutes or less. That would plummet to 40-45% without the funding. The city will be able to cover funding next year, but that's not a solution that can last much longer than that.
  • Amazon Basics: They basically all failed. Technically 2/7 of their candidates won - Juarez (cross-endorsed by everyone) and Pederson (I'll get to this later). Seattle's (progressive) Silent Majority came out enforce to repudiate the unprecedented barrage of corporate campaign dollars in a local election.
  • Sawant vs. Orion: I've seen a lot of takes on Twitter and in general that I think miss the mark. I don't think she won because Socialists came out of the woodwork, but because she faced a flawed opponent. Her base is strong and will always get out to vote for her. Sawant is very much a polarizing figure that can absolutely be beat if an actual progressive ran against her (from the primary - Ami Nguyen/Logan Bowers/Zac deWolf). However, her last two opponents have been total duds. Pamela Banks (2015 candidate) was worse than Orion, who himself only got through the primary thanks to CASE spending and cozying up to Amazon. I'm not a D3 voter and am not a fan of Sawant (I admire her fight for the working class - that has produced real results like the $15 min wage - but I have a dislike for her as a politician and her ideology), but I would have voted both in 2015 and last week for her. I think that's how a lot of voters feel.
  • D4 Pedersen vs Scott: Heartbreak. My favorite candidate lost to my least favorite. While Pedersen was one of the Amazon supported candidates, this race cleaved along different lines: NIMBY vs YIMBY (or pro-growth). Scott is DSA, but he's also an ardent urbanist and YIMBY-through-a-socialist-lens. It's also why he was ultimately unsuccessful IMO. Pedersen is less of a corporate candidate than he is an anti-growth, "lesser Seattle" one. Sawant received substantial support from precincts dominated by single-family home owners (and renters) that cannot be said for Scott. As a result we trade two awesome ex/interim-councilmembers (Johnson and Pacheco) for someone who opposes transit (was against ST3 and TBD funding for enhanced bus service), bike lanes, and HALA/MHA - the policy that upzoned much of Seattle and created mandatory affordable housing in all new multi-family development.
  • Most progressive council in a long time: I think we'll see a more aggressive version of the head tax and I think it will honestly be better received than last time.

What was Egan Orion thinking setting up HQ at Uncle Ike's? He does realize that Ian Eisenberg is absolutely loathed in the Central District, right? It came across as tone deaf, and no wonder he lost. Anti-Sawant people need to get smarter and put up a non-polarizing progressive candidate.
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GoTfan
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« Reply #5684 on: November 15, 2019, 08:29:39 PM »

So to sum up, Amazon's money dump failed spectacularly.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5685 on: November 16, 2019, 12:30:39 AM »

So to sum up, Amazon's money dump failed spectacularly.

By Amazon's standards this wasn't especially big money dump. And next time they may be quite successfull: the "progressives" will show the city's citizens their idiocy as politicians in years to come.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #5686 on: November 17, 2019, 12:54:38 AM »

Orion was a lame candidate, literally a nobody who proudly called himself "Flash Mob King" and had no history of success.

Unfortunately, there were no real qualified challengers to Sawant in the primary.  Logan Bowers was a nobody.  Pat Murakami was an activist perennial candidate.  Ami Nguyen was clueless.  Zac DeWolf was a loathed school board member trying to fail up.

Orion's lameness carried over into the general election, where he had zero presence, zero personality and zero GOTV effort.  He held even in his public appearances but had no campaign strategy.  CASE, the Super PAC Amazon donated to, spent a bunch of money sending out flyers and pamphlets on his behalf.  But that did more harm than good as it allowed Sawant to aggressively spam "STOP AMAZON CORPORATE CASH" posters and t-shirts all over town.  This brought in new voters who had no idea who the candidates were but were eager to cast a "Screw Bezos" vote.

One of these days Sawant will get a real challenger.  Until then, Seattle gets four more years of dysfunctional government.
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GoTfan
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« Reply #5687 on: November 18, 2019, 05:29:56 AM »

Orion was a lame candidate, literally a nobody who proudly called himself "Flash Mob King" and had no history of success.

Unfortunately, there were no real qualified challengers to Sawant in the primary.  Logan Bowers was a nobody.  Pat Murakami was an activist perennial candidate.  Ami Nguyen was clueless.  Zac DeWolf was a loathed school board member trying to fail up.

Orion's lameness carried over into the general election, where he had zero presence, zero personality and zero GOTV effort.  He held even in his public appearances but had no campaign strategy.  CASE, the Super PAC Amazon donated to, spent a bunch of money sending out flyers and pamphlets on his behalf.  But that did more harm than good as it allowed Sawant to aggressively spam "STOP AMAZON CORPORATE CASH" posters and t-shirts all over town.  This brought in new voters who had no idea who the candidates were but were eager to cast a "Screw Bezos" vote.

One of these days Sawant will get a real challenger.  Until then, Seattle gets four more years of dysfunctional government.

Lame or not, he still lost
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« Reply #5688 on: November 19, 2019, 10:25:19 AM »

Glad to see R-88 was officially rejected. It's pretty rare to see a more "conservative" side eke out an election night victory and then hold on through late arriving ballots.
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Xing
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« Reply #5689 on: November 19, 2019, 11:38:48 AM »

While I'm 99% sure that this isn't why conservatives rejected R-88, I think that what made the difference and pushed some Democrats to reject it as well as how vague it was. It could easily have ended up in court.
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Seattle
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« Reply #5690 on: November 19, 2019, 12:36:32 PM »

While I'm 99% sure that this isn't why conservatives rejected R-88, I think that what made the difference and pushed some Democrats to reject it as well as how vague it was. It could easily have ended up in court.

I also don't understand why they didn't wait until 2020... This seems like something that would very well pass in a non off election year.
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« Reply #5691 on: November 22, 2019, 06:36:50 PM »

My take on these elections:

  • By far the worst result: I-976 passing. It it likely to be overturned in the WA Supreme Court, but it will seriously hamper Sound Transit and the organization's ability to build out the transit system authorized in ST-3 if not repealed. More pressing, however, is the decimation that this will bring to Seattle's Transportation Benefit District that supplies additional funds to provide significant bus service hours in the city. Currently 70% of households in Seattle are 1/4 mile from transit that comes every 15 minutes or less. That would plummet to 40-45% without the funding. The city will be able to cover funding next year, but that's not a solution that can last much longer than that.

You might want to read this:

Sound Transit will keep collecting its car-tab taxes, despite I-976 vote


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Frodo
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« Reply #5692 on: November 22, 2019, 06:40:02 PM »

Oh, and by the way -Tim Eyman wants to run for governor!

It isn't clear yet whether he is running as a Republican, a Libertarian, or as an independent candidate.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #5693 on: November 22, 2019, 07:36:06 PM »

Oh, and by the way -Tim Eyman wants to run for governor!

It isn't clear yet whether he is running as a Republican, a Libertarian, or as an independent candidate.

HAHAHAHAHA! I love that he violated campaign rules *during* his attempt to make an announcement. What a schmuck. I'd love to see him run - he'll get crushed. ..might even be in jail by that point though. Do we think he'd try to run from prison?
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« Reply #5694 on: November 22, 2019, 07:50:53 PM »

lol Eyman
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cwt
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« Reply #5695 on: March 16, 2020, 08:04:19 PM »

Quote from: Seattle Times
Tim Eyman, the initiative promoter leading early polls to be the Republican candidate for governor this fall, spent Saturday rooting for a political rally of 250+ people to “stick our finger in the eye of Jay Inslee.”

In an email blast to supporters, Eyman flouted public health restrictions and advice on slowing the spread of coronavirus, saying “251 is the # of patriots I hope will join me @ Oak Harbor today. I’m bringing a 6-pack of Corona!”

As with some other of Eyman’s publicity gags, it was more bluster than reality. In a phone interview Saturday, he said actual turnout at the event was “about 60.”

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/coronavirus-daily-news-update-march-14-what-to-know-today-about-covid-19-in-the-seattle-area-washington-state-and-the-nation/
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #5696 on: March 17, 2020, 02:00:36 PM »

Quote from: Seattle Times
Tim Eyman, the initiative promoter leading early polls to be the Republican candidate for governor this fall, spent Saturday rooting for a political rally of 250+ people to “stick our finger in the eye of Jay Inslee.”

In an email blast to supporters, Eyman flouted public health restrictions and advice on slowing the spread of coronavirus, saying “251 is the # of patriots I hope will join me @ Oak Harbor today. I’m bringing a 6-pack of Corona!”

As with some other of Eyman’s publicity gags, it was more bluster than reality. In a phone interview Saturday, he said actual turnout at the event was “about 60.”

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/coronavirus-daily-news-update-march-14-what-to-know-today-about-covid-19-in-the-seattle-area-washington-state-and-the-nation/

This is, quite literally, "get your supporters sick to own the libs".
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #5697 on: March 17, 2020, 02:57:44 PM »

Will Eyman break 40% in November? I'm thinking not.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #5698 on: March 17, 2020, 03:11:55 PM »

Will Eyman break 40% in November? I'm thinking not.
Inslee has been fairly competent in his handling of the virus, no? I think that probably helps him come November.
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Seattle
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« Reply #5699 on: March 17, 2020, 04:27:54 PM »

Will Eyman break 40% in November? I'm thinking not.
Inslee has been fairly competent in his handling of the virus, no? I think that probably helps him come November.

Yes, but there's a lot more of this crisis to go through.
I also don't see why state senator Phil Fortunato, a mini-Trump in his own right, wouldn't beat Eyman in the jungle. Maybe I wrongly assume conservatives see Eyman for the grifter that he is, rather than as an "anti-tax champion".
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