Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[KingSweden]

Fain has a pretty moderate voting record for somebody in leadership and his brother is a popular sports radio show host. Also the Kent Valley area can be kind of swingy downballot

[Seattle]

Fain is the most moderate Senate R, so it’s no surprise he’s been able to hang on and build a suburban-friendly profile. He did decently well in the primary. But I just find it tough to see how he can survive a Trump, D+10 midterm. Mona Das, his opponent isn’t bad either.

[Seattle]

Here’s the Seattle Times article with more details:
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/woman-says-washington-state-sen-joe-fain-raped-her-in-2007-fain-denies-allegation/

Fain is calling for an investigation, as are other prominent R senators.

[Alaska2392]

https://crosscut.com/2018/10/statewide-ban-soda-and-food-taxes-down-20-points-poll-finds

If Elway Polling is to be believed I-1634 (which would stop local governments from enacting taxes on food/drink) is down 51% (no) - 31% (yes) with 18% undecided.

A "yes" vote would put the ban into place.  A "no" vote and the initiative would not be enacted.

Interestingly, Elway finds that it is REPUBLICANS who are most willing to vote "No" on this initiative by a margin of 58% (no) - 28% (yes) with the remainder undecided.

Either Republicans don't like control taken away from local governments...  or, far more likely, Republicans are confused and think this is a vote on enacting a tax with a vote of "YES" putting the tax in place and a vote of "NO" meaning that the tax won't become law.

I hope either Elway did a bad poll or that Republicans read their ballots/voters pamphlet.  I would die if Adams county was like 65% NO on this initiative because no one can understand it.

[IceSpear]

If Elway Polling is to be believed

Stopped reading there, lol.

[RI]

Voted "no" on all the initiatives.

[Seattle]

So it doesn't get lost in the early vote thread:

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I still haven't voted! Oops! Will probably do so on Saturday.

[Seattle]

Finally voted last night. Wow, never have I seen so many unopposed judge positions... 16/17.
Straight D ticket, Yes on all but the Sugar Tax prohibition.

[KingSweden]

Saw on DKE that Spokane is now at 34% turnout - is that true? Absolutely wild what’s going on out there

[Seattle]

Saw on DKE that Spokane is now at 34% turnout - is that true? Absolutely wild what’s going on out there

Higher actually, as of 10/31: 118,061   36.87%!
Stunning turnout. I can't see how this is good for CMR, she's not exactly a get-me-to-the-polls inspiring kind of person (not saying it's good for Brown either, but I feel like the downside lies with CMR).

[RI]

Saw on DKE that Spokane is now at 34% turnout - is that true? Absolutely wild what’s going on out there

Spokane turnout is high (at least in the suburbs), but it's not even the highest in WA-05. Lincoln County is the highest in the state, and Pend Oreille and Garfield are also above Spokane County.

Meanwhile, turnout in Walla Walla and Whitman is in the toilet so far (granted, WSU students always vote at the last minute).

I posted this yesterday:

A mixed county/LD turnout map:

[KingSweden]

Saw on DKE that Spokane is now at 34% turnout - is that true? Absolutely wild what’s going on out there

Higher actually, as of 10/31: 118,061   36.87%!
Stunning turnout. I can't see how this is good for CMR, she's not exactly a get-me-to-the-polls inspiring kind of person (not saying it's good for Brown either, but I feel like the downside lies with CMR).

I mean I think it’s best for the three Democrats in LD-6. Probably good for Brown, but as RI demonstrates below, Whitman and WW aren’t doing great and Brown needs high turnout plus a decent margin in both

[RI]

Looks like the carbon tax failed while the other initiatives passed (always count on WA to vote down big taxes). Spokane County appears to have actually voted for Cathy McMoRo. Dino, unsurprisingly, went down in flames while JHB likely survives.

[KingSweden]

Dems need to park a dump truck of cash at Vancouver Mayor Tim Leavitt’s House for next cycle. JHB is beatable.

[Seattle]

A quick legislative rundown.
Looks like the GOP may have averted a complete disaster, but they're on track to lose seats in both the senate and house. There are a lot of very close races and considering that there's likely still a good 20% of the vote left to count, more substantial gains could occur.

LD-5: +2
Both Ds lead, Bill Ramos (52.5) to Chad Magendanz (47.5) and Lisa Callan (53) to Paul Graves, incumbent (47)

LD-6: +0/+1
All Rs currently lead. Jeff Holy (R), senate, is probably safe. Mike Volz (R) leads Kay Murano (D) 53-47, Jenny Graham (R) leads Dave Wilson (D) 50.3-49.7, which could be a potential flip)

LD-10: +0 to +2
Norma Smith (R) leads Scott McMullen (D) 52.5-47.5. Dave Paul (D) leads Dave Hayes (R) 50.3-49.7.

LD-17: +0/+1, definitely a disappointing result for Ds
Both Rs lead. Vicki Kraft (R) leads Tanisha Harris (D) 50.6-49.4. Paul Harris (R) is safe.

LD-18: +0/+1
All Rs in the lead. Larry Hoff (R) leads Kathy Gillespie 52-48. Brandon Vick (R) leads Chris Thobaben (D) 55-45.

LD-19: +0/+1, Demosaurs on the decline, but not dead.
Both incumbents lead. Jim Walsh (R) leads Erin Frasier (D) 50.7-49.3. Brian Blake (D) leads Joel McEntire (R) 54-46.

LD-25: +0 to +2, another disappointing suburban result
Both Rs lead. Kelly Chambers (R) over Jamie Smith (D) 52.5-47.5. Chris Gildon (R) over Brian Duthie (D) 53-47.

LD-26: +0/+1 senate, +0/+1 house
In the senate race, Emily Randall (D) leads Marty McClendon (R) 50.6-49.4. Jesse Young (R) leads Connie FitzPatrick 51-49. Michelle Caldier (R) leads Joy Stanford (D) 54-46.

LD-28: +1
Both Ds lead. Mari Leavitt (D) ahead of incumbent Dick Muri (R) 51.5-48.5. Christine Kilduff (D) killing it over Maia Espinoza (R) 56.5-44.5.

LD-30: +1 senate
And Miloscia bites dust. Claire Wilson (D) leads Mark Miloscia (R) 53-47. The house Ds are both getting over 60%. This district is going the way of LD-45 (Dhingra).

LD-35: +0/+1 house
Looks like infamous Tim Sheldon (DR) will eek out a second win over Irene Bowling (D) 52.5-47.5. Dan Griffey (R) looks safe. Drew MacEwen (R) leads David Daggett (D) 51.5-48.5.

LD-42: +0/1 senate, +0 to +2 house
Super tight results all around. Incumbent Doug Ericksen (R) leads Pinky Vargas (D) 50.4-49.6. Incumbent Luanne Van Werven (R) leads Justin Boneau (D) 50.7-49.3. Sharon Shewmake (D) is leading incumbent Vincent Buys (R) 50.1-49.9.

LD-44: +1 house
Steve Hobbs (D) senate and John Lovick (D) house are cruising to reelection. Jared Mead (D) is unseating incumbent Mark Harmsworth (R) 52-48.

LD-47: +0/1 senate, +1 house
Joe Fain (R), senate incumbent is leading Mona Das (D) 50.3-49.7 right now. There are 12k+ ballots left to count in this district. I'd rather be Das. Looks like Debra Entenman (D) will unseat Mark Hargrove (R) 52.5-47.5. Pat Sullivan (D) is getting over 60%.

Ds are currently +7 in the house and +2 in the senate. But that could extend to +18 and +4 if late returns are D favoring.

[KingSweden]

When’s the next ballot drop?

[Seattle]

When’s the next ballot drop?

Between 4-6 today for most counties.

[KingSweden]

When’s the next ballot drop?

Between 4-6 today for most counties.

Looking forward to updates... pre-election i predicted +10 House and +3 Senate

[Seattle]

Well there are at least 732k worth of votes left to be counted... Probably more like 800k with ballots yet to arrive.

To update the legislative races. Nothing has flipped from the initial vote dump.
However, I think Fain loses. His lead is down to 90 votes (10k ballots left for counting). Similarly, Ericksen leads by just 122 votes, while Sharon Shewmake's (D) lead grew and Luanne Van Werven's (R) shrank to 261. However, I just checked and there are only 3k ballots left to count in Whatcom :/ So perhaps the Rs hang on?

[KingSweden]

I’m a bit concerned about Emily Randall holding on in LD-26, TBH.

[KingSweden]

Today’s update.

Randall holding firm with a 400 vote lead

Erickson lead up to 200... don’t think this one’s happening

Fain now trails by 200

So if results hold, D+3 in the Senate

[KingSweden]

Was sad to read in the Seattle Times today that Councilman Rob Johnson will not seek reelection. Easily the best member of the CC on urban issues, very sad to see.

[KingSweden]

As I feared, Emily Randall now trailing in the 26th - yuuuge dump for McClendon.

I’m happy Report that Erickson now only leads by 70 votes and Fain keeps falling further behind

[Seattle]

Randall probably loses, unfortunately.
There are 2,700 ballots left to count in Kitsap and 3,000 in Pierce. So, that's what, like max 500 ballots between them? She'd have to win the remaining hypothetical ballots by 57.6% (75 votes) to scrape by and likely more, since there's probably fewer than 500 remaining.

Skagit county still has 20,000 ballots left to process (why???), so the tenuous lead Dave Paul (D) has over Dave Hayes (R) could change.

Ericksen (R) will almost certainly win, by 72 votes, or .1% since there's only 34 ballots left in Whatcom, and we're past the point of significant late returns. What's the recount rule in WA? Not that it'll change the outcome.

Not a disappointing night for WA Dems, but there were so many close races (3% or less) and a few notable suburban districts they failed to flip: LD 6 (Spokane suburbs), LD 17 (suburban Vancouver), LD 25 (Puyallup), LD 26 (Kitsap + Gig Harbor), and LD 42 (where they gained a house seat, but missed the above senate seat and other house seat by less than .1% and .18%).

[Seattle]

ermagerd

Randall has clawed her way back into a lead by 12 votes!!
She leads 34,279 to 34,267.

1,800 votes left in Kitsap, 1,500 in Pierce. So that means probably around 150-200 ballots left to count here?

Skagit dumped 5,000 votes (15k remain). Dave Paul (D) gains on Dave Hayes (R) and now leads 50.34-49.66, or 456 votes.

Despite only reporting "34" ballots on hand yesterday, Ericksen's lead has narrowed from 72 to 58. Whatcom only list 1 ballot left to count... but that's probably not accurate. So, who knows, maybe there's enough out there to get that close enough to recount-win territory (I'm sure this will go to a recount, but 58 is a pretty big margin to overcome).