Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Seattle]

And strange... for a city that voted 70-30D in 2016 and is close to minority majority (if not already there?).

Anyway, I met Tina Podladowski (the Washington Dems chair) at a family friend’s fundraiser last week. I have to say I was very impressed. She seems to be very organized, dedicated, and has a great smart strategy to further state and congressional Ds.

She says envisions +2 in the senate (LD-26, LD-30) and +8 in the House (+2 in LD-5, LD-6, LD-19, LD-26, the suburban Vancouver one, the Auburn/Kent one, and O’Ban’s)

[KingSweden]

Just sent in my ballot - voted for all the Democrat incumbents. Nothing exciting going on this year in my neck of the woods

Same here.  When you live in a LD in the heart of Seattle there are never competitive races.

That said, the sheer number of candidates running for Senate is phenomenal. 29 in total if I counted correctly.

First year where ballot postage is prepaid (i.e. no stamp required).  It is just so convenient that Kim Wyman supports this idea but just happens to think it would be more feasible to implement once it is an off-year election.

Seattle Times honest to god endorsed Rodney Tom for the primary in the State Senate primary for the 48th LD.   Because the past divided government was so successful...   I am hoping that Paddy (D) can hold him off.  Third independent candidate in that race is a one-issue candidate that opposes light rail building to the Eastside. Can assume that most of his voters would go to Tom in the general.

Are there any suburban Seattle pickup opportunities for Dems anywhere?

P.S. Went to Mason County this past weekend and Tim Sheldon signs everywhere.  Really had to resist the urge not to speed past them.

-

The main pickup opportunities in the Seattle area (at least for Senate) are defeating Miloscia or Fain, and also Angel’s open seat. Some good House opportunities too in Issaquah and Pyuallup

And strange... for a city that voted 70-30D in 2016 and is close to minority majority (if not already there?).

Anyway, I met Tina Podladowski (the Washington Dems chair) at a family friend’s fundraiser last week. I have to say I was very impressed. She seems to be very organized, dedicated, and has a great smart strategy to further state and congressional Ds.

She says envisions +2 in the senate (LD-26, LD-30) and +8 in the House (+2 in LD-5, LD-6, LD-19, LD-26, the suburban Vancouver one, the Auburn/Kent one, and O’Ban’s)

She’s been very impressive, IMO. I like her mantra of competing everywhere.

Surely she misspoke in leaving off the two House seats in the 25th, though?

[Seattle]

One of LD-25, not O’Ban’s. Whoops.
I think she’s kind of conservative in her House predictions. We very well could have a VA style wave. There are a lot of pickup opportunities.

[KingSweden]

One of LD-25, not O’Ban’s. Whoops.
I think she’s kind of conservative in her House predictions. We very well could have a VA style wave. There are a lot of pickup opportunities.

Agreed. I think we take both 25th seats, for starters.

[Seattle]

111,358 ballots have already been returned in King County out of 1.3 million registered voters with 10 days left. Mailed my very boring (D) ballot yesterday. Still waiting for it to be processed.

I'm very interested to see how the paid postage boosts turnout. I don't remember what normal August midterm primary turnout is, but I'm going to guess we'll hit 45% turnout.

[UncleSam]

Just filled out my King county ballot! Voted for Good Space Guy XD

[Seattle]

Just filled out my King county ballot! Voted for Good Space Guy XD

You're a Washingtonian!?

I thought about Goodspaceguy or Rocky de la Fuente.... but couldn't pull the sh**tvoting trigger.

[KingSweden]

Just filled out my King county ballot! Voted for Good Space Guy XD

You're a Washingtonian!?

I thought about Goodspaceguy or Rocky de la Fuente.... but couldn't pull the sh**tvoting trigger.

I was close to voting for that GOP woman whose candidate statement was about radio waves controlling people for the lulz but my wife talked me out of it

[cwt]

Ballot returns are lagging in Spokane County compared to 2014, despite the free postage and competitive House race.

12.15% of ballots have been returned, versus 14.35% at this point in 2014. In raw numbers, 38,062 have been returned, compared to 40,495 in 2014.

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2018/jul/29/spin-control-ballot-returns-lag-behind-2014-primar/

[RI]

I'm voting for Cathy McMorris Rogers for the first time this cycle. Really unimpressed by Lisa Brown, both from her town hall at WSU and for how things went down when she left WSU-Spokane.

[KingSweden]

Ballot returns are lagging in Spokane County compared to 2014, despite the free postage and competitive House race.

12.15% of ballots have been returned, versus 14.35% at this point in 2014. In raw numbers, 38,062 have been returned, compared to 40,495 in 2014.

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2018/jul/29/spin-control-ballot-returns-lag-behind-2014-primar/

I was just there this weekend. Saw almost zero yard signs for anyone other than Dave Wilson.

Don’t want to infer too much from this, though. Primary night will be much more indicative

[Seattle]

I've started keeping track of the King County early returns:
7/27: 111,358 - 8.68%
7/28: 113,922 - 8.80%
7/30: 146,183 - 11.39%
7/31: 177,536 - 13.83%

[Seattle]

I've started keeping track of the King County early returns:
7/27: 111,358 - 8.68%
7/27: 113,922 - 8.80%
7/30: 146,183 - 11.39%
7/31: 177,536 - 13.83%

To continue (no updates on weekends)

8/1: 198,570 - 15.47%
8/2: 220,799 - 17.00%
8/3: 241,548 - 18.82%
8/6: 286,361 - 22.31%
8/7: 351,465 - 27.38% (12PM update)

There will be a 6PM update, though ballots are collected at drop box locations until 8PM. And of course there will probably be around 100k that are not collected until after today.

[KingSweden]

It’ll be interesting to see some numbers in Spokane and Walla Walla Countis re: WA-5, and how Rossi does in Issaquah and the rest of East King. Also I’m officially a little nervous about Patty Kiderer

[RI]

lol Uncle Mover might make the general in my home CD. His voter guide spiel talks about aliens, FEMA camps, "Marshall Law", and Fort Knox gold.

[Seattle]

Well, these results are objectively terrible for legislative and congressional Rs....
I keep checking seats I had pegged as lean or tilt R... that Ds are pulling 50%+ of the vote against incumbents. Obviously the following is subject to change, considering the many votes left out there. The dynamic of partisanship and later returning ballots is still not greatly understood in WA. For some reason, unlike in CA, they're not nearly as homogeneously left or D leaning.

Since the congressional races are already getting plenty of attention, the LDs: The shockers are bolded.

LD-1 (Bothell): Safe D
LD-2.1(Rural Pierce/Thurston): 55R-45D, LD-2.2: Uncontested R
LD-3 (Spokane): Safe D
LD-4.1 (Spokane Valley): Shea (R) 54 - 46 Cummings (D), 4.2: Likely R

LD-5 (North Bend/Snoqualmie): Both Ramos and Callan (D) lead 54-46 over former rep Magendanz (R) and Graves (R) respectively. For perspective, Both Graves and Rodne lead ever so
slightly in the 2016 primary.

LD-6 (Spokane + burbs): !!!! Ds lead in all positions- Senate: Lewis (D) 51 - 49 Holy (R), 6.1: Murano (D) 53 - 47 Volz (R), 6.2: Combined Ds 54 - 46 Combined Rs

LD-7 (NE WA): Safe R
LD-8 (Richland/Kennewick): Safe R
LD-9 (SE WA): Safe R

LD-10 (Island Co + Stanwood): !!! 10.1: McMullen (D) 51 - 49 Smith (R). 10.2: Paul (D) 53.5 - 46.5 Hayes (R).

LD-11 (Tukwila/Renton): Uncontested Ds
LD-12 (Wenatchee/Chelan): Safe R
LD-13 (Ellensburg + Moses Lake): Senate: Uncontested R, the rest Safe R
LD-14 (Yakima Co./Klickitat): Safe R
LD-15 (Yakima): Safe R
LD-16 (Walla Walla + Pasco): Safe R

LD-17 (Suburban Vancouver): 17.1: Tanisha (D) + minor D 51.5 - 48.5 Kraft (R), 17.2: Harris (R) 54 - 46 Jiles, Sr. (D).

LD-18 (Exurban Vancouver/Clark Co.): Ds did weirdly better here than in LD-17- 18.1: Vick (R) 50.5 - 49.5 Thobaben (D) and 18.2: Gillespie (D) 53.5 - 46.5 Hoff (R).

LD-19 (SW WA, ancestral D country): 19.1: Frasier (D) 51.5 - 48.5 Walsh (R), 19.2: Safe D

LD-20 (Lewis Co): Safe R
LD-21 (Edmonds/Mukilteo): Safe D
LD-22 (Olympia): Safe D
LD-23 (Bainbridge Island + Bremerton): Safe and Uncontested D
LD-24 (Olympic Peninsula): Safe D

LD-25 (Puyallup): In 25.1: the combined Ds 53 - 47 Combined Rs, with Jamie Smith 27%) barely ahead of Julie Door (26%) for the second position, 25.2 features Duthie (D) 46.5 - 46 Gildon (R) - 7.5 Witting ("Independent To Party"

LD-26 (Port Orchard/Gig Harbor): Senate: Randall (D) 51 - 45 McClendon (R) - 4 Scheidler (I), 26.1: FitzPatrick (D) 50.5 - 49.5 Combined Rs, 26.2: Combined Rs 51 - 44 Stanford (D) - 5 Padilla ("People over Party")

LD-27 (Tacoma): Safe D

LD-28 (Lakewood/JBLM): 28.1: Leavitt (D) 53 - 47 Muri (R), similar to LD-5, Muri led barely in the 2016 primary... not a good sign for him. 28.2: Kilduff (D) is sitting 59-41 right now, Safe D

LD-29 (South Tacoma/Parkland): Safe or Uncontested D. David Sawyer, the pariah incumbent D in 29.1, who is accused of sexually assaulting multiple women, is in third right now by 1%. Hopefully he stays there.

LD-30 (Federal Way): Senate: Combined Ds 51.5 - 48.5 Miloscia (R), In 30.1 & 30.2, "vulnerable" D incumbents Pellicciotti and Reeves are destroying, 58-42 and 62.5-37.5 (!) respectively.

LD-31 (Rural Pierce + King Cos.): All race Likely R

LD-32 (Shoreline/Lynwood): Senate: safely D vs D, 32.1 is Safe D and 32.2 is currently just 4 votes away from being D vs D.

LD-33 (Burien/Kent): Safe or Uncontested D
LD-34 (West Seattle + Vashon Island): Senate is D vs D (Nguyen and Shannon Braddock, who in 2015 almost won a city council seat against Lisa Herbold), the rest are uncontested D.

LD-35 (Mason Co.): In the Senate re-match: Bowling (D) 39 - 35 Sheldon (DINO) - 26 Combined Rs, 35.1: Griffey (R) 51.5 - 48.5 Thomas (D), 35.2: Daggett (D) 52 - 48 MacEwen (R).

LD-36 (Ballard + Queen Anne): Super Safe D
LD-37 (Central District + SE Seattle): Super Safe D
LD-38 (Everett): Senate is currently D vs D (McCoy and Overstreet), with the R behind by .75%, the rest are Safe or Uncontested D

LD-39 (Rural Snohomish/Skagit/Whatcom): Senate race is a mess: Combined Rs 55 - 40.5 Joens (D) - 5 Rabieh (I). Keith Wagoner (R), the appointed incumbent is beating Elizabeth Scott (R), the position 2 incumbent by about 3%, 39.1: Combined Rs 51.5 - 48.5 Lewis (D), 39.2: Eslick (R) 52 - 48 Halvorson (D).

LD-40 (Bellingham/Anacortes/Mt Vernon/San Juans): There's a clown car in 40.1, with the potential for D vs D, the third place D is 1% behind the second place R. no one has more than 28%! 40.2 is Uncontested D.
LD-41 (Bellevue/Mercer Island): 41.1 is Safe D, 41.2 is D vs D (Weiker and Thai).

LD-42 (Whatcom Co.): !!!! Senate: Combined Ds 54 - 46 Ericksen (R), 42.1: Boneau (D) 51 - 49 combined Rs, 42.2: Shewmake (D) 52.5 - 47.5 Buys (R).

LD-43 (Wallingford + Capitol Hill): Super Safe D

LD-44 (Mill Creek/Snohomish): Senate: Safe D, Hobbs (D) leads 57 - 40 (R) -3 (L), 44.1: Safe D, Lovick leads 59-41, 44.2: Lean D, Mead (D) 55 - 45 Harmsworth (R), another R incumbent in poor shape...

LD-45 (Kirkland/Woodinville/Sammamish): Safe D, Manka has this on lockdown already
LD-46 (NE Seattle): Super Safe D

LD-47 (Auburn/Kent/Maple Valley): Perhaps the last Seattle area R in the Senate: Fain (R) 54 - 46 Das (D), 47.1: Hargrove (R) 50 - 47.5 Entenmen (D) - 2.5 Dillon (I). 47.2: Safe D, Sullivan (D) 58 - 42 Combined Rs.

LD-48 (Bellevue/Kirkland): Senate: Kuderer (D) 59 - 30 Rodney (DINO), the rest are Safe or Uncontested D
LD-49 (Vancouver): Uncontested D

[Virginiá]

Damn, I totally forgot about Washington state (sorry KingSweden and friends ). Democrats seem to have a very good shot at CD-3 and CD-5 in addition to CD-8! I figured we might have a shot in one of them but if these results hold or get better even, the general election seems poised to be good to WA Democrats.

Well, these results are objectively terrible for legislative and congressional Rs....
I keep checking seats I had pegged as lean or tilt R... that Ds are pulling 50%+ of the vote against incumbents. Obviously the following is subject to change, considering the many votes left out there. The dynamic of partisanship and later returning ballots is still not greatly understood in WA. For some reason, unlike in CA, they're not nearly as homogeneously left or D leaning.

[...]

I gotta get to bed so I can't look that list over, but assuming there are no major changes in the vote totals, what kind of projection would you give Democrats for gains in the legislature in November?

[Seattle]

Right now, just counting Ds that lead in R held seats (excluding Tim Sheldon), Ds would gain 17(!) in the house and 4 in the Senate.

[136or142]

lol Uncle Mover might make the general in my home CD. His voter guide spiel talks about aliens, FEMA camps, "Marshall Law", and Fort Knox gold.

He should be a guest on Coast to Coast AM.

[Seattle]

It looks like both WA-2 and WA-9 will be D vs D contests. Sarah Smith has pulled ahead (which is impressive, considering she was down by around 3% yesterday). The D in WA-2 has led since yesterday, but it's rather tenuous. I think it'll grow though.

[KingSweden]

I wonder if Frank Chopp would retire if Ds get a 67-31 majority. A lot of those freshman might want some fresh blood

[KingSweden]

(bump)

So now that it’s been a month anyone got any predictions/thoughts?

[Seattle]

(bump)

So now that it’s been a month anyone got any predictions/thoughts?

Haven't heard too much lately. I plan to canvas/phonebank for legislative races and WA-08 in October, so maybe I'll hear something there.

I tagged along with my mom to a fundraiser for Inslee (at Brady Walkinshaw's grandma's house) earlier this month.

I think he'd like to run for president, but knows that he's got a very slim chance of going anywhere. I wouldn't be surprised if he instead runs for a third term. Which would definitely delay the eventual Constantine - Ferguson primary battle.

[Virginiá]

Republican incumbent Senator in LD-47 (Joe Fain) accused of rape:

https://twitter.com/candacefaber/status/1045449473286000640

54% - 38% Clinton
55% - 42% Obama


How did the primary go for Fain? I'm not sure what he used to get, but the end result seemed like a pretty sturdy win for such a Democratic district (at the presidential level anyway).

Edit: Ok so Fain's primary result from 2014 was a blowout (66%), and he only got 54% this year - a substantial reduction. This accusation will not help, that's for sure.

[Virginiá]

@KingSweden or anyone else knowledgeable about WA: Why is LD-47 even still electing Republicans, and not just electing, but by blowout margins? I could understand if the district was a little less Democratic at the presidential level and if the Republicans won by smaller margins, but this guy has really been running the table up until now.