Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle (user search)
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle (search mode)
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 837217 times)
Meeker
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« Reply #50 on: August 08, 2008, 10:36:01 AM »

Preliminary data I'm seeing says that Democratic turnout is much, much higher than Republican.
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Meeker
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« Reply #51 on: August 09, 2008, 11:56:39 AM »

Difficult to say. There were two distinct coalitions that killed the first one - the environmentalists and the anti-tax faction. The environmentalists claim it was their doing, but I think the exit polling and common sense makes it clear that it wasn't them. They'll vote for this one, but will they be able to make up the 5% it lost by in 2007? And will some voters be turned off by the lack of highways in the new one and switch to the "No" side?

You also have to keep in mind that the voter universe will be vastly different (registered voter turnout in 2007 was around 49% - it's going to be closer to 85% this year).

All things considered, if I had to make a prediction, I'd say it fails narrowly. But I really just don't know.
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Meeker
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« Reply #52 on: August 09, 2008, 12:05:09 PM »

Preliminary data I'm seeing says that Democratic turnout is much, much higher than Republican.

How could they tell that without having seen ballots?  People in the Dems' database as being Democrats are turning out more, or what?  I think that might be slightly skewed, since the Dems have caucus info for them and not the GOP.  So, there are probably a lot more active Republicans (if they didn't vote in the primary) who fall under the radar.

Yea, I raised that concern with people as well and we modified our formula to affect % of identified folks turning out instead of raw numbers.

However, "Democratic" turnout is surpassing or very near to surpassing 50% depending on the area, so the unidentified No Data's isn't really relevant in that case.
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Meeker
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« Reply #53 on: August 11, 2008, 02:15:15 PM »

How is Peter Goldmark doing? I read somewhere that the current Land Commish gave an inappropriate back rub to a female staffer.

He's outraising his opponent, and the only press Sutherland has gotten recently is the fondling story. Sutherland also has never receive more than 50% in an election.

I'm not quite certain he'll win, but he's doing much better than Ladenburg. I put his odds at a little greater than 50% though.
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Meeker
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« Reply #54 on: August 12, 2008, 12:55:29 AM »

And a bunch of other county judges that nobody cares about....

I'm actually psuedo-working for a few of those judicial candidates. Do you remember who you picked?

And tsk, tsk at Alcon for Rossi and Hecht.
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Meeker
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« Reply #55 on: August 12, 2008, 11:32:17 AM »

And a bunch of other county judges that nobody cares about....

I'm actually psuedo-working for a few of those judicial candidates. Do you remember who you picked?

And tsk, tsk at Alcon for Rossi and Hecht.

Umm

Tim Bradshaw
Jean Bouffard
Holly Hill
Laura Gene Middaugh
Jean Rietschel
Mariane Spearman

Eh, 1/3. At least you bother to vote in them

Same goes for Armijo.  I've read some not-so-flattering stuff about his conduct before.  I don't know the guy, so it's hard to say how true that is.  I'm working under the delusion that close primary = tighter ship.

You realize that they don't appear on the November ballot, right?
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Meeker
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« Reply #56 on: August 12, 2008, 01:13:45 PM »


Spearman is a whore.

At least you didn't vote for Cahan *shudders*
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Meeker
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« Reply #57 on: August 12, 2008, 06:37:10 PM »

LOL@the Dean Logan vote, by the way.

At least someone thought it was funny. I felt so clever when I decided to that.

I told my father he should've done it and he agreed (he left the race blank since Osgood is crazy and he hates Republicans).
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Meeker
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« Reply #58 on: August 12, 2008, 07:36:54 PM »

As much as I love the man, that's a pretty accurate account of Brad Owen. He has a fairly large staff and no one really knows what they, or him, do. He also has a very extensive alcohol collection in his office.
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Meeker
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« Reply #59 on: August 12, 2008, 07:51:14 PM »

As much as I love the man, that's a pretty accurate account of Brad Owen. He has a fairly large staff and no one really knows what they, or him, do. He also has a very extensive alcohol collection in his office.

Yet he's anti-pot?  I might have to vote for the Republican.

Because, you know, if you want revolutionary government, and internally consistent substance use positions, you vote for the Washington GOP.  Yeah.

His focus is on controlled substances and kids, although I'd be shocked if he was pro-legalization.

If you can't stomach him then write-in that Nirvana guy.
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Meeker
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« Reply #60 on: August 12, 2008, 08:01:04 PM »

Haha.  I kind of hope he'll run for something eventually.  He's a very sharp guy.  I'm not voting on pot, though, so it doesn't matter anyway.  It's a useless office and Owen hasn't blown it up, so I'll probably go for him.  I assumed the Stranger was mashing things to be edgy anyway.

Pretty much. Owen has done nothing to warrant being removed, and I highly doubt McCraw knows the Senate rules as well as him. I kind of doubt anyone knows the Senate rules as well as him.

But he's kind of a weird guy... he tells his staff to call him Governor when Gregoire is out the state. Whatever.

By the way, just noticed -- happy birthday. Smiley

Thank you! Mother made one cake and decided it wasn't moist enough, so she made a second one.
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Meeker
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« Reply #61 on: August 12, 2008, 09:04:34 PM »

When do the polls close your time, and does Washington State use (Pacific) Daylight Savings Time?  (Is it about 6:51 p.m. there as I type?)

Yea, PST (three hours ahead of you). Polls close at 8 pm, but because we're heavily vote-by-mail you'll get a big chunk right around 8:30 - 9, a trickle of polls, and then a significant amount the next day. Close races won't be able to be called till Thursday, if not later.
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Meeker
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« Reply #62 on: August 12, 2008, 11:46:05 PM »

All the Dems are endorsing him just because he has a D by his name. They have no idea who he is.

I was at the 27th LD meeting and they blanket endorsed the entire slate of unopposed Democrats running for statewide office, including Osgood. No debate. People just have no idea who he is and automatically support him.

The people running the local Democratic parties frequently have no idea what the hell they're doing.
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Meeker
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« Reply #63 on: August 13, 2008, 05:32:57 AM »


Yea, that's pretty typical Owen.
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Meeker
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« Reply #64 on: August 14, 2008, 09:25:49 PM »

Turnout in King County isn't going well. Not good news for the Governor.
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Meeker
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« Reply #65 on: August 16, 2008, 09:51:03 PM »

Turnout in King County isn't going well. Not good news for the Governor.

Turnout is down here in Thurston as well but after phone banking for about 6 hours and going door-to-door today I am finding that people just prefer to wait until a little bit closer to election day (most of them had sent their ballots out either yesterday or even today).

Most do vote later, but turnout is lower right now compared to this time in previous years.
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Meeker
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« Reply #66 on: August 17, 2008, 01:37:58 AM »

Some of the smaller counties, like Pacific, have such a small population that you can't really read too much into their turnout percentages, it's just sort of a year-by-year randomness.

King is the really worry though. This just confirms what those within the party have known for months though, which is that the Gregoire and coordinated campaigns are completely incompetent.
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Meeker
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« Reply #67 on: August 17, 2008, 02:00:35 AM »

The current trend line is right below 2006 turnout (39%). I'm pretty sure Sam Reed was full of crap. We'll see
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Meeker
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« Reply #68 on: August 17, 2008, 02:24:14 AM »

Some of the smaller counties, like Pacific, have such a small population that you can't really read too much into their turnout percentages, it's just sort of a year-by-year randomness.

King is the really worry though. This just confirms what those within the party have known for months though, which is that the Gregoire and coordinated campaigns are completely incompetent.

Why does it matter? It's just the primary. Would a warning to the Gregoire campaign that they need to do a better job really be a bad thing?

It gets the Republicans excited and helps Rossi bring in out-of-state money (and makes in-state donors focus on the race more).

On the other hand, you're certainly right, it would give the Gregoire campaign (and a lot of the lazy party activists) a needed wake-up call that we can't just waltz to victory.

So positives and negatives.
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Meeker
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« Reply #69 on: August 17, 2008, 02:33:36 AM »

It gets the Republicans excited and helps Rossi bring in out-of-state money (and makes in-state donors focus on the race more).

Maybe. Seems like the closeness from 2004 (not to mention the high name-recognition he already has from it) would already help Rossi out a lot in those areas--so much that I'm not sure there's much room for improvement. But I don't know...

You're probably right to some extent, but as we saw in 2004 every little bit can make a big difference.
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Meeker
meekermariner
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« Reply #70 on: August 17, 2008, 11:02:42 PM »

How can this be true if voters chose to have a top-two primary?

Because voters are capable of making a decision that will decrease turnout? What you're saying isn't logical.

And this is an exciting chance for third parties to actually become part of the system. Take advantage of it Greens, Libertarians, and Constitutionalists! You guys actually have a chance now!

No, it excludes them nearly completely. A third party will never be on the November ballot for a statewide election until we get rid of this horrid system.
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Meeker
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« Reply #71 on: August 18, 2008, 09:05:09 AM »

in some cases when a party is split between a number of candidates it opens up the possibility for third parties.

But excludes them 99% of the time...
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Meeker
meekermariner
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« Reply #72 on: August 18, 2008, 10:39:57 PM »

The SOS race will be interesting to see the absolute floor vote of a Democrat running statewide. I predicted Reed gets ~60-65%.

My highly scientific and wonderfully accurate predictions in a moment...
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Meeker
meekermariner
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« Reply #73 on: August 18, 2008, 10:53:58 PM »

Alrighty, here we go. A bolded name means they will be the top vote getter. Two names means those are the ones advancing to November.

US Congress, Dist. 1: Inslee
US Congress, Dist. 2: Larsen, Bart
US Congress, Dist. 3: Baird, Webb
US Congress, Dist. 4: Hastings, Fearing
US Congress, Dist. 5: McMorris, Mays
US Congress, Dist. 6: Dicks, Cloud
US Congress, Dist. 7: McDermott, Beren
US Congress, Dist. 8: Reichert, Burner
US Congress, Dist. 9: Smith

Governor: Gregoire, Rossi
Lt. Governor: Owen, McCraw
SOS: Reed, Osgood
State Treasurer: Martin, Sohn
State Auditor: Sonntag, McEntee
Attorney General: McKenna
CPL: Goldmark
SPI: Bergeson, Dorn
Insurance Commissioner: Kreidler, Adams
Supreme Court: Fairhurst, Johnson, Stephens

Legislative races later on tonight if I have time...
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Meeker
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« Reply #74 on: August 19, 2008, 01:31:24 AM »

There's also a new SurveyUSA poll out that has Dorn up 43-32-9. Kind of shocking, especially since that's an 11 point jump for Dorn in less than a month.

I guess we'll see if it's right in 20 hours...
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