Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Ogre Mage]

Aimee Curl wrote a good but long profile of Sen. Murray in the Seattle Weekly.  Some possible clues to her popularity can be surmised from reading it.  One passage noted:

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As for the politics of 2010, former opponent George Nethercutt notes:

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http://www.seattleweekly.com/2009-01-28/news/patty-murray-s-unlikely-hill-climb/1


I think this is the first time Murray has topped the NJ rankings.  Her 2008 liberal score of 92.7% is higher than her lifetime liberal score, which is 84%.  It's not clear if 2008 is an anomaly or if she is really moving toward Ted Kennedy/Jack Reed/Barbara Boxer land.

Cantwell's average lifetime liberal score looks to be in the high 70s, putting her firmly in mainstream Democratic territory.

[Ogre Mage]

The American Prospect has an interesting article on the failure of Darcy Burner's campaign in the 8th Congressional District.  The author of the story, Eli Sanders, has written the piece as a meditation on the limitations of the power of the "Netroots."

http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=anatomy_of_a_netroots_failure

Some telling bits:

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[Ogre Mage]

My prediction is that Hutchison will win the primary with flying colors and then she will lose badly in the general election.  Name recognition is a powerful advantage, particularly in a multi-candidate field.  Having multiple candidates in the race gives her more cover to duck specific questions about her record, which is what she has been doing.  She has only shown up to one or two candidate forums and appears to be running scared.

In the general election, there won't be anywhere to hide.

As an aside, the KC Executive race is illustrative of why I think the decision to make county races "nonpartisan" was a sham. 

[Ogre Mage]

Nickels fell further behind... Bag tax is up to 43%. Stupid Seattle.

Hutchison also dropped to 35.92%

I just read that Hutchison served on the board of directors for the anti-evolution "intelligent design" organization, The Discovery Institute.

Good grief! I know she's running for County Executive, a position that deals more with road grades, zoning and budgets rather than hot button social issues, but still--how is someone like that running strong in metro Seattle?

Hutchison has the advantage of high name recognition because of her decades-long work as a TV Newscaster.  That is particularly a strong advantage in a multi-candidate primary.  She has deliberately attempted to obscure her extreme right views, a task made easier by the unfortunate passing of that measure which made this race "non-partisan."  The notion that this race is non-partisan is a sham.  Keep in mind that the Democratic vote was split between four candidates in the primary.  She had the Republican vote to herself.

The current results show Hutchison getting 33% of the vote.  Second place Dow Constantine has 27%.  Given she is the sole major Republican in the race against four strong Democratic candidates that is a poor showing.  If she posts similar numbers against Constantine in the general it will be a nuclear blowout.  My guess, however, is that she will pick up the assorted crazies votes as well as a small percentage of Jarrett's and Hunter's and will get 38%-40% in the general election.  That's still a loss by a huge margin.  All of Larry Phillips' votes and a majority of Hunter's and Jarrett's will go to Constantine.

[Ogre Mage]

Brad Owen sucks, Part XXV: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2009833043_wes_uhlman_brad_owen_endorse_h.html

I am not surprised that Owen would endorse Hutchison as my opinion of him was already low.  As a Democrat, I am embarrassed that he is in our party. 

I wouldn't worry about that Survey USA poll.  Once the Democratic Machine starts grinding Hutchison will be crushed.  She is a pathetically easy target.  The average person is paying little to no attention to this race at this point, most Democratic voters are unaware of Hutchison's (lack of) policy plans, her embarrassing statements/actions and her political affiliations.  That will likely change soon.

[Ogre Mage]

http://www.seattlepi.com/local/6420ap_wa_union_push.html

Are the inevitable cracks finally starting to form in the GOP's domination of South Central Washington...?

Interesting.  We do have a large agriculture industry here.  And as the article notes, it certainly puts a local angle on the simmering card-check debate.

It doesn't surprise me that Microsoft is supporting Approve I-71 vigorously.  I worked there in the late 1990s and while I hated that job, I was impressed at how gay friendly the place was.  Quite a few employees were out.  They have a group called Gay and Lesbian Employees at Microsoft (GLEAM) and I surmise they have been important in pushing for rights, including when the corporation initially went wobbly after threats from the loathsome Rev. Hutcherson. 

Unfortunately, I fear that Tim Eyman's horrible new initiative (I-1033) is going to pass.  Social conservatism doesn't have much traction in Washington state, but playing on anti-tax sentiment is often quite effective. 

[Ogre Mage]

Damn Washington, chu got some crazy fundies.

http://vimeo.com/6853620

Didn't know California could be outclassed. They're not even pulling that in Maine... where there actually is a same-sex marriage law up for a vote! Can't you just wait for the real marriage law to come up for a vote?

That is because the moderate Republicans one often finds in the Northeast are not at all like the ones in Washington state.  The WA GOP and its affiliates are batsh!t crazy in their extremism.  The 1996 Republican Gubernatorial nominee, Ellen Craswell, ran on "God's plan" for Washington state.  We are one of the most ideologically polarized states in the nation, although on balance the left outnumbers the right.

[Ogre Mage]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2010079882_edit18exec.html

Could the Times possibly have more predictable endorsements?

During the 1990s when I worked on my high school paper, we wrote better editorials than that.  I noticed they didn't say anything about her experience and qualifications compared to Constantine's, except to repeat over and over that she is an "outsider" who will bring "change."  This is just talking points and sloganeering, not analysis.  Their writing is, to put it generously, not persuasive.

[Ogre Mage]

I suspect 2010 will be a quiet year for elections in Washington state, especially compared to the barn burners we had in 2004, 2006 and 2008.  For me the biggest drama is whether Murray will manage to crack 60%.  Running against her could be generously described as an attempt to increase name recognition for future races.  

[Ogre Mage]

Ladies and gentlemen, Sen. Val Stevens' latest email to Reject 71 supporters.  Highlights:

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Based on Jim West and Richard Curtis, I thought closeted gay politicians who crusade against gay rights while secretly engaging in unethical behavior had already used the WA GOP as a means to "take control" and "push their depraved lifestyle." 

Val Stevens is a classic example of the far-right extremism and (hypocritical) fear-mongering of the Republican Party in this state.

[Ogre Mage]

Breaking allegations of sexual misconduct by Constantine with a former county employee. Sound Politics broke it and the Seattle Times is digging around pretty heavily.

Fuck.

The timing of this strikes me as awfully convenient, given polls have recently shown Dow surging ahead and there are only days left to vote.  And it goes without saying that anything on Sound Politics should be taken with huge grain of salt. I am going to need harder evidence than conveniently-timed rumor-mongering by the (un) Sound Politics crowd about an anonymous "Jane Doe" who did not file a formal complaint against Constantine.  It smells like desperation from Hutchison's backers.

Call me optimistic but unless there are further revelations, I think the public will see this ploy for what it is.

[Ogre Mage]

I-1033
Approve:  44%
Reject:  56%

R-71
Approve:  56%
Reject:  44%

King County Executive
Constantine:  55%
Hutchison:  44%

Seattle Mayor
Mallahan:  50%
McGinn:  48%

[Ogre Mage]

As of now, R-71 is passing 52%-48% with about 69% of the vote counted.  The later returns are increasing the margin of victory.  We'll see how it looks once 100% is counted.

And despite the closeness, make no mistake -- this was a major victory.  I believe it was the first time gay/lesbian unions were placed on a statewide ballot and won.

[Ogre Mage]

Constantine now destroying Hutchison 59-41 (lolz).

I shouldn't brag, but this is what I posed back in June:

My prediction is that Hutchison will win the primary with flying colors and then she will lose badly in the general election.  Name recognition is a powerful advantage, particularly in a multi-candidate field.  Having multiple candidates in the race gives her more cover to duck specific questions about her record, which is what she has been doing.  She has only shown up to one or two candidate forums and appears to be running scared.

In the general election, there won't be anywhere to hide.

As an aside, the KC Executive race is illustrative of why I think the decision to make county races "nonpartisan" was a sham. 

[Ogre Mage]

Looking at past gubernatorial elections, it now looked pretty amazing and improbable that former Governor Gary Locke did so well in Eastern Washington in 1996 and 2000.  He won 57% of the vote in Spokane Co, 51% in Walla Walla Co and came within a point of winning the GOP bastions of Benton and Franklin Co in 2000.  And this was running against a candidate with a plan from God in 1996 and a talk-show host in 2000 - natural constituencies for conservative Eastern Washington.  On the other hand, he seemed to have slightly underperformed in King Co (66%) by today's standards.

My question is has the state become more polarized in the ensuing years?  Was Gary Locke still relatively popular when he left office and how do Washingtonians today view him in general?  Was he viewed as governor of one Washington or just another Subaru driving liberal from Seattle?   Thanks for any comments.

Locke wasn't very popular when he left office.  During his first term, he had sky-high approval ratings in the 60%-70% range.  When the tech bubble burst early in his second term, his approvals slid all the way into the 30s.  He eventually recovered somewhat, but IIRC he left office with approvals in the mid-40s -- not horrid, but mediocre at best.

Locke was a terrific campaigner and knew how to collect political capital but wasn't very good about spending it.  It often seemed that when having to choose between maintaining his popularity or actually getting something done, he chose the former.  There is merit to the charge that he didn't do much, although in fairness he dealt with a GOP controlled state legislature for a good portion of his term.

Ideologically, Locke was certainly no firebreathing liberal.  He was a left-leaning centrist and very cautious.

To his credit, Locke's tenure was scandal-free and his governance was competent (which is more than his predecessor Mike Lowry can say).  But compared to the bold moves pushed by Gov. Gregoire (the gas tax, beefed up funding and programs for education and health, environmental initiatives for green jobs and Puget Sound cleanup, passing gay rights bills, etc.) his record looks meek by comparison.  

[Ogre Mage]

I agree with everything Ogre Mage said. And to expand on the last sentence of his post, I think Gregoire is going to go down as one of the best Governors in state history. Her record thus far has been pretty phenomenal all things considered (although I and other liberals will naturally continue to prod her to go further).

I'm also a little annoyed with her right now for jumping on the silly "return-ballots-by-election-day" bandwagon.

I've always wondered why Gregoire has such unimpressive ratings if she is so good, as you guys said.
But Ogre Mage's explanation makes sense.  
Too bad that she didn't rub off some of her boldness and decisiveness on Obama.

Some of Gregoire's suffering approval has to do with the divisiveness of the 2004 elections and the fact she's willing to spend political capital to achieve goals, like Meeker and I said.  And many governors have bad approvals these days given the economy.

There is, however, another element.  Whereas Locke was a good campaigner, Gregoire isn't.  I don't think the glad-handing aspect of politics is her strength.  And the governor's communications office is often regarded as the weak link in her chain -- I hear there's been a lot of turnover there.

[Ogre Mage]

I would say there is a good chance she is interested in a Cabinet appointment during Obama's second term and a good chance she would be chosen.

One rather little known fact is that then Attorney General Gregoire was the WA Dems first choice to challenge Slade Gorton in 2000.  She took a pass because of her family situation and Maria Cantwell narrowly defeated Gorton.  What I thought was notable about this article from Feb. 1999 was:

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http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=19990213&slug=2943992

It suggests Gregoire was interested in a Cabinet appointment as far back as the 1990s and there was reciprocal interest from the Clinton-Gore crowd.  It makes one wonder what might have happened to Gregoire if Gore had won in 2000.  And her political stature is even larger now.

Having watched the politics of the Supreme Court, I don't think she will be chosen for that position.  

[Ogre Mage]

Wow, no wonder it feels so pro gay-rights here, Issaquah is even stronger than Bellevue. Probably thanks to new development.

The 8th is definitely more supportive of it than the 6th or 9th. The Eastside is wary of taxes, but is very socially liberal. Drugs, sex, gay marriage, civil liberties, you name it; this is probably the most non-religious and least socially conservative suburban area in the country. Plus the 8th includes a large chunk of rural King and Pierce County, so the Eastside must have supported r71 by nearly 60%.

A relative of mine worked for Dow Constantine's campaign and spent time contacting swing and independent voters on the Eastside.  He was struck by how strongly pro-choice the area was.  While pro-choice doesn't necessarily = pro-gay rights, the Bellevue/Redmond/Issaquah/Medina results don't surprise me.

[Ogre Mage]

Relations between Arkansas and Washington state seem to have broken down over the Maurice Clemmons incident:

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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/03/us/03tacoma.html

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http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010400203_shootingdoc02m.html

[Ogre Mage]

Has anyone seen this shit?  If that is Murray's opponent, I will laugh hysterically for the entire campaign.

http://crosscut.com/2009/12/30/politics-government/19475/

[Ogre Mage]

http://www.publicbroadcasting.net/kplu/news.newsmain/article/1/0/1605804/KPLU.Local.News/Washington.Gets.$590M.To.Improve.Seattle.To.Portland.Rail.Service

Washington and Oregon received a total of $598 million to help build faster rail in the Seattle-Portland-Vancouver corridor. Washington received $590 of that money (take that Oregon!).

I suspect the federal funding Washington received is largely a result of Sen. Murray's influence as a senior member of the Senate Appropriations Committee and her chairmanship of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Transportation.   As her reelection approaches, there may be more stories like this.  Our senator may fly under the radar, but she actually is very influential.

As for the story about state Sen. Roach, did someone move her roses again?

[Ogre Mage]

http://www.publicbroadcasting.net/kplu/news.newsmain/article/1/0/1605804/KPLU.Local.News/Washington.Gets.$590M.To.Improve.Seattle.To.Portland.Rail.Service

Washington and Oregon received a total of $598 million to help build faster rail in the Seattle-Portland-Vancouver corridor. Washington received $590 of that money (take that Oregon!).

I suspect the federal funding Washington received is largely a result of Sen. Murray's influence as a senior member of the Senate Appropriations Committee and her chairmanship of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Transportation.   As her reelection approaches, there may be more stories like this.  Our senator may fly under the radar, but she actually is very influential.

Isn't she the third-ranking member of the Senate Democratic leadership?

Sen. Murray is the Conference Secretary, which I believe is the 4th ranking position behind Reid, Durbin (Assistant Majority Leader) and Schumer (Vice-Chair of the Caucus). 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Conference_Secretary_of_the_United_States_Senate

[Ogre Mage]

On an unrelated note, Murtha's death means Norm Dicks is now the second ranking Democrat on the Appropriations Committee and in line to head the Defense subcommittee. Obviously Murtha's death is a sad event, but the reality is it's rather opportune for us.

Defense Industry Analysts seem to think Boeing is now likely to win the Air Force tanker contract:

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http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20100210/BIZ/702109877

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http://in.news.yahoo.com/137/20100210/371/tbs-boeing-seen-aided-by-ties-to-key-u-s.html

[Ogre Mage]

So how do you think this impacts his chances at becoming the next governor of Washington state?

It impacts his chances negatively and suggests McKenna is more concerned about the GOP primary than I thought.  Is Rossi seriously considering running again?

The Democratic base, which previously had been ambivalent about the AG, is going to come out blasting.  He has just stepped on one of the party's core issues.  bgwah is correct -- McKenna now has no chance in King County.

[Ogre Mage]

Video of Gov. Gregoire discussing AG McKenna's lawsuit:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5Ng5lYw3kE

I also don't think he ever had a chance at winning King County in the first place (gubernatorial and down-ballot statewide races are entirely different beasts) but that's a separate issue.

I don't think he had a chance of winning in King County either, but I could have seen him doing decently for a Republican -- around 45%.  That certainly won't happen now.